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Climate change and migration in developing : evidence and implications for PRISE countries

Maria Waldinger and Sam Fankhauser

Policy paper

October 2015

ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment

The Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) was established in 2008 to advance public and private action on climate change through rigorous, innovative research. The Centre is hosted jointly by the University of Leeds and the London School of Economics and Political Science. It is funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council. More information about the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy can be found at: http://www.cccep.ac.uk

The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment was established in 2008 at the London School of Economics and Political Science. The Institute brings together international expertise on economics, as well as finance, geography, the environment, international development and political economy to establish a world-leading centre for policy-relevant research, teaching and training in climate change and the environment. It is funded by the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment, which also funds the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. More information about the Grantham Research Institute can be found at: http://www.lse.ac.uk/grantham/

The authors

Maria Waldinger is a Post-Doctoral Researcher at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science and at the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy.

Sam Fankhauser is Co-Director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science and Deputy Director of the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy.

This policy paper is intended to inform decision-makers in the public, private and third sectors. It has been reviewed by at least two internal referees before publication. The views expressed in this paper represent those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the host institutions or funders.

Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries Policy Paper

Research for climate-resilient futures

Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries

October 2015 Maria Waldinger Sam Fankhauser

This report has been produced as part of a series of preliminary papers to guide the long-term research agenda of the Pathways to Resilience in Semi-arid Economies (PRISE) project. PRISE is a five-year, multi- research project that generates new knowledge about how economic development in semi-arid regions can be made more equitable and resilient to climate change.

Front cover image: relief efforts continue © DVIDSHUB CC4.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode

2 Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries

Acknowledgements This work was carried out under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in and Asia (CARIAA) with financial support from the UK Government’s Department for International Development and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, . The views expressed in this work are those of the creators and do not necessarily represent those of the UK Government’s Department for International Development, the International Development Research Centre, Canada or its Board of Governors. This work was also carried out with financial support from Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC), through a project on the Economics of Adaptation and Climate-Resilient Development. The authors are grateful to Bhim Adhikari, Declan Conway, Chris Duffy, Ara Jo, Tom McDermott, Anna Okatenko, Estelle Rouhaud, Kashif Salik, Catherine Simonet, Abid Suleri, Paul Watkiss and PRISE colleagues for their comments and feedback.

Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries 3

4 Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries

Contents

Acknowledgements 3 1. Summary and introduction 7 2. Important concepts 9 2.1 Forms of migration 9 2.2 Environmental 9 3. The impact of climate change on migration 10 3.1 Reasons to migrate 10 3.2 Climate effects on migration I: via income 10 3.3 Climate effects on migration II: via conflict 10 3.4 Empirical evidence on climate and migration 10 3.5 Historical evidence on climate and migration 11 4. The economic effects of migration on developing countries 12 4.1 12 4.2 International migration 12 5. Policy recommendations 14 References 17

Tables Table 1: , urbanisation and migration trends in PRISE countries 9

Climate Climate change change and migration and migration in developing in developing countri countries:es: evidence evidence and implications and implications for PRISE for PRISEcountries countries 55

6 Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries

1. Summary and introduction

This paper informs the evidence of this, for example in the migrants, particularly high in development community about the Sahel region of West Africa areas with poor transportation effects of climate change on (Scheffran et al., 2012a, 2012b). infrastructure. migration patterns within and out of Migration might also be an effective • Improve institutional quality to developing countries. It response to the climate risks of the ensure the incentives to migrate concentrates on the economic future, but only under certain pre- are not reduced, in particular in aspects of migration and on conditions. the context of land tenure information that is relevant for the Access to information on the security when people are not six semi-arid countries that are the economic and social costs of able to sell their land or are not focus of the PRISE (Pathways to migration, on the advantage and confident of reclaiming it upon Resilience in Semi-Arid Economies) disadvantages of potential return. project: Burkina Faso, Senegal, destination locations, and the Kenya, Tanzania, Pakistan and • Define the legal status of absence of credit constraints can Tajikistan. The insights are drawn environmental migrants, for help potential migrants make from a broader review of the example, through a process led decisions that will improve their evidence by Waldinger (2015). by the UN or UNHCR, in order livelihoods. The economy of to give people certainty about The empirical evidence shows that Tajikistan, for example, is their legal situation. people in developing countries are benefitting from the of likely to respond to climatic change migrant workers abroad (World • Put in place safeguards against by migrating internally. There is less Bank, 2014). distress migration, for example evidence on the relationship in the event of conflict, which Policy intervention is required to between climate change and can force people to choose reduce potential negative impacts international migration. sub-optimal migration in both the sending and receiving strategies, leading to The effect of climate change on region. Badly managed migration is maladaptation. migration depends crucially on associated with high economic, socio-economic, political, and social and psychological costs. • Support the areas affected by institutional conditions. These Nor will climate risks at the outward migration by promoting conditions affect both vulnerability destination necessarily be lower, as links between migrants and to climate change and how the example of Senegal shows their region of origin; “managed important climate change is in (Foresight, 2011). retreat” from severely affected determining migration decisions. regions may be a last resort if Planned, proactive migration may they become inhospitable. People working in the agricultural be a necessary and effective sector are particularly affected by response to climate risks. • Support the absorptive capacity short-term climate shocks Uncoordinated distress migration is of the receiving jurisdictions, in (droughts, flooding etc.) and long- a sign of adaptation failure. To particular urban labour markets term climate change. There is ensure effective migration choices and public services, to manage evidence of this from Tanzania and a good management of the the socio-economic and many other countries (CCCS wider socio-economic effects, implications of the arrival of 2014). Their vulnerability, however, policy-makers should: migrants in a new destination. depends on their ability to adapt to • Provide sufficient information • Direct migrants away from these changes, for example about the costs and benefits of environmentally vulnerable through the use of new crop migrating, including areas where they move to for varieties, as well as through non- psychological and social, along different reasons, as is the case agricultural activities, such as with more clarity about in Senegal where more than 40 consumption smoothing through alternative adaptation options. per cent of new migrant access to credit, insurance and are located in high • Release credit constraints, social safety nets. risk flood zones. present in all PRISE countries Migration has been a frequent and in particular in Senegal and response to climate variability and Tajikistan, to offset the up-front change in the past. There is strong costs incurred by potential Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries 7

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2. Important concepts

• Depending on the reasons: stress. Urbanisation trends are also 2.1 Forms of Climate migrants, economic prominent in all six countries. In migrants, political migrants, Senegal, more than 40 per cent of migration social migrants the population now lives in urban areas. • Depending on the underlying Migrants choose destinations and choice: forced migration and In terms of international migration, duration based on existing voluntary migration the number of emigrants networks, skill levels, credit significantly exceeds the number of • Depending on development constraints and travel costs. We immigrants. Particularly in Kenya, outcome: productive and can distinguish many forms of but also Pakistan, Senegal and unproductive migration migration: Tanzania a large fraction of Migration in all its forms is a emigrants are highly educated, • Depending on the destination: prominent feature in the semi-arid International and internal creating a problem of lands of Burkina Faso, Kenya, capital flight or “brain” drain”. On migration Pakistan, Senegal, Tajikistan and the other hand, • Depending on duration: Tanzania (see Table 1). Internal and communities often generate seasonal migration, medium- seasonal migration has always substantial remittances, on which term, and permanent migration been and continues to be an the domestic economy relies. important response to climate

Table 1: Population, urbanisation and migration trends in PRISE countries Emigrants w. Population Urban population Urban population Net migration tertiary growth (%) (%) growth (%) (total) education (%) Burkina Faso 2.8 28.19 5.9 2.6 -125,000 Kenya 2.7 24.78 4.4 38.5 -50,000 Pakistan 1.7 37.86 2.8 12.7 -1,635,000 Senegal 2.9 43.08 3.7 17.2 -100,000 Tajikistan 2.5 26.62 2.7 0.6 -100,000 Tanzania 3.0 30.20 5.4 12.1 -150,000 SS Africa 2.7 36.65 4.1 12.6 South Asia 1.3 32.19 2.6 5.4 World 1.2 53.00 2.1 5.4 * Negative numbers denote net ; positive numbers denote net Source: Castells-Quintana et al. (2015). Data are for 2013 or closest year.

place of residency because of for the lack of definition is the 2.2 Environmental sudden environmental change, difficulty of isolating environmental whereas environmental migrants factors from other (often related) refugees leave due to gradual, long-term drivers of migration. climatic change (Keane, 2004). In this policy note we are Different terms are applied to those In international law, the status of concerned with migration decisions moving for environmental reasons, people leaving their place of by people confronted with gradual including environmental or climate residency due to environmental environmental change, and focus and environmental or reasons remains undefined. Legally less on people forced to leave by climate migrant. Broadly speaking speaking, the term ‘environmental sudden environmental shocks and environmental refugees leave their refugee’ is a misnomer. One reason natural disasters.

Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries 9

3. The impact of climate change on migration

Mueller et al., 2014 for Pakistan). economic and institutional 3.1 Reasons to Persistent drought in the Sahel has structures, limits capacity to been identified as a key contributor manage and recover from shocks. migrate to increased migration pressure There is evidence of specific (Scheffran et al., 2012a, b). In historical cases where changes in Burkina Faso, drier regions are Reasons for migration are very climatic conditions increased more likely to engage in rural–rural diverse. Typically, migration pressure on resources and led to migration, both temporary and decisions cannot be traced back to violence. It has been argued that permanent, than regions with more only one category of causes. historic persecution of Jewish rainfall (Henry et al., 2004). Instead, different causes interact communities in Europe often and form the basis for migration Climate change may reduce coincided with times of economic decision. incentives for migration by lowering distress (Oster, 2004; Anderson et Important causes include economic, income from agriculture and al., 2013) and that rural uprisings in political and social factors. exacerbating credit constraints of increased during periods of Environmental causes increase potential migrants. As a result, the higher drought frequency (Jia, economic incentives for migration, poorest and most vulnerable may 2014). be unable to migrate because they especially if they directly affect There is some (although contested) lack the necessary resources; they incomes. evidence on the link between are trapped (Gray and Mueller, climate, economic shocks and 2012; Dustmann and Okatenko, conflict today (Miguel et al., 2004; 3.2 Climate effects 2014; Robalino et al., 2014). In Burke et al., 2014). For example, Burkina Faso, long-distance or the conflict in has coincided on migration I: via international migration appears to with a record drought in the Fertile be limited to years of high Crescent, which was made two to income agricultural productivity (Henry et al., three times more likely by climate 2004). change (Kelley et al., 2015). One of the most important drivers However, “climatic conditions are of migration patterns across the 3.3 Climate effects neither necessary nor sufficient for world are differences in income conflicts to occur” (Burke et al., levels. If a person expects that their on migration II: via 2014). income or living standards more generally would increase by moving conflict 3.4 Empirical to another place or country, then they have incentives to do so (e.g. The relationship between climate evidence on climate Borjas, 2014). change and conflict remains highly Hence, in cases where climate controversial because the and migration change affects current or future relationship is highly complex and income or living standards, it may heavily dependent on a country’s Climate variability has well affect decisions to migrate. socio-economic, institutional, and documented effects on internal political characteristics. Climate change may increase migration (Marchiori et al., 2011; incentives for migration by Many developing countries are Barrios et al., 2006). For example, a increasing income differentials. relatively dependent on agriculture decline in precipitation in Africa Climate events affect livelihoods and their political institutions often increased rural to urban migration through their effect on agricultural have limited ability to cope with within sub-Saharan African productivity (e.g. CCCS 2014 on economic or climate-related shocks. countries (Barrios et al., 2006; Tanzania; also Burgess et al., Financial markets, social safety nets Henderson et al. 2014). Frequent 2014; Guerrero Compean, 2013) or insurance systems are often incidences of climate disasters are and possibly through effects on weakly developed. This, combined also known to trigger distress non-agricultural income (e.g., with sometimes weak political, migration (Qaisrani, 2014).

10 Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries

In most sub-Saharan Africa 195,000 and 120,000–110,000 “There is limited economies rain-fed agriculture is years ago) coincided with very important. Changes in rainfall periods of human expansion evidence about the therefore have a critical effect on into this region (Castaneda et effect of climate on income from agriculture. Barrios et al., 2009). international al. (2006) find that decline in rainfall Past episodes of climate change migration. Compared can lead to increases in rural to are not necessarily good guides to to the number of urban migration (also Findley 1994). the future. Studies of climate people in developing There is limited evidence about the change-induced migration forecast countries engaging in effect of climate on international large streams of migrants (e.g. migration. Compared to the Myers 2002; Orach 2009, as internal migration the number of people in developing quoted in Qaisrani 2014), but the number of people countries engaging in internal underlying evidence is often weak. engaging in migration the number of people For a given shock, less migration international engaging in international migration may result compared to historical migration is small.” is small (Piguet et al., 2011). times because international borders and international laws limit Beine and Parsons (2014) examine migration. Increased migration the effect of long- and short-term could occur because of lower temperature changes on migration transportation costs and greater empirically. They do not find availability of information. evidence for an effect of climate on migration, but do find strong evidence for conflict to affect migration. 3.5 Historical evidence on climate and migration

Human populations have been exposed to substantial climatic change in the past. Archaeological evidence indicates that these have led to important shifts in human populations. • A 200-year drought in the Indus Valley led to the abandonment of the urban centres of the Harrapan Society, now in Pakistan (Marris, 2014). • During the African Humid Period (ca. 9000 to 6000 years ago) the Sahara was home to lakes and vegetation (Claussen et al., 2003). This enabled inhabitants of the Sahel region to enter and cross the area, and reach Europe and Asia. • Humid conditions and increased vegetation in the Central Sahara/Sahel region in the pre-historic period (e.g.

Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries 11

4. The economic effects of migration on developing countries

Coxhead, 2010). Other conditions share anywhere in the world (World 4.1 Internal migration for beneficial migration include: Bank, 2014). International migration can also extend business • Access to community networks networks, and there are benefits Through internal migration, for finding jobs in urban areas from returning migrants who have households seek to diversify their • Access to transportation acquired capital and skills abroad. portfolio of economic activities in infrastructure order to ensure survival or to However, benefits only materialise if improve their standards of living • Information on potential returns migrants remain in contact with (Ellis, 1998). Migration is used as a to labour in distant markets their sending community, for risk management strategy. In example, through remittances. • Land tenure security: the risk of Burkina Faso labour migration expropriation deters rural-urban On the negative side, skilled has been an off-farm livelihood migration migrant are net fiscal contributors strategy for drought-affected and their departure therefore farmers since the 1970s (Nielsen • Access to credit. represents a loss for those left and Reenberg, 2010). behind. Skilled labour attracts Empirical evidence shows the 4.2 International foreign direct investments and R&D positive economic effects of internal activities and its absence may migration on income. In Tanzania, migration therefore reduce these beneficial migration added 36 percentage flows (Docquier and Rapoport, points to consumption growth The economic effects of 2008). between 1991 and 2004, international migration on Skilled and unskilled labour are also according to one study (Beegle et households in developing countries complements in the production al., 2011). and developing countries’ process. Loss of skilled labour may However, positive effects depend economies can be both positive decrease productivity (and wages) on the receiving province’s and negative. of unskilled labour left behind and characteristics. Benefits of internal On the positive side, international increase productivity (and wages) of migration only arise under certain migration often creates additional skilled labour. As a result, inequality conditions. Income inequality is income from remittances. In between skilled and unskilled reduced only through migration to Tajikistan, for example, labour may increase. provinces with growing industries remittances now account for over and labor markets (Phan and 50 per cent of GDP – the highest

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Climate Climate change change and and migration migration in d ineveloping developing countries: countries: evidence evidence and and imp implicationslications for forPRISE PRISE countries countries 13 13

5. Policy recommendations

Whether the economic the costs of migration but Mullan et al., 2011; for a consequences of migration are overestimate economic differentiated view see De positive or negative and whether opportunities (Bryan et al., Brauw and Mueller, 2012). migration allows people to adapt 2011; Munshi, 2003). In Improved land tenure security efficiently to climate change depend addition, taking into also increases people’s choice on an array of socio-economic, consideration all types of costs, of alternative adaptation options. political and institutional conditions. be they economic, social or Alternatives may not be psychological, is an integral part contemplated if an individual is Migration can have positive of making an informed choice unsure they will reap the economic effects if migrants go to about migration. Migrant benefits in the long term (Besley, productivity-enhancing areas. It can networks play an important role 1995). have negative economic effects if in transmitting such information migrants go to areas where their • Clarity about legal status: (De Brauw and Harigaya, 2007; labour force is not efficiently Until now, the legal situation of Bryan et al., 2011; Munshi, employed. people migrating due to 2003). environmental reasons remains Public policy can help to encourage No credit constraints: undefined (Keane, 2004). positive migration choices and • Liquidity constraints lead to Environmental migrants do not reduce risks associated with poverty-related labour have a legal status comparable migration. The policy conditions immobility (Phan and Coxhead, to a refugee’s legal status needed to ensure effective 2010). Credit constraints can which would grant them legal migration choices are fairly generic, force people to take the ‘wrong’ protection to enter a country. and apply to PRISE countries as migration decision because The legal status of well as more broadly. They include: migrants incur up-front costs environmental migrants • Clarity about alternative (transportation costs, costs therefore needs to be defined, adaptation options: from not working, set up costs for example, through a process Migration is not the only in destination location). These led by the UN or UNHCR, in strategy to adapt to climate costs are especially high in order to give people certainty change. Migration becomes a areas with poor transportation about their legal situation. viable choice when its costs infrastructure and in areas with • Safeguards against and benefits compare limited access to credit. Credit distress migration: favourably to those of other constraints are present in all Unplanned migration in adaptation options. To make PRISE countries, but response to climate stress that comparison the full costs particularly prevalent in causes unnecessary hardship and benefits of migration Senegal and Tajikistan, and economic loss. If “migrants choices need to be understood, where fewer than six per cent of are faced with death if they including psychological and the adult population have bank remain in their present place of social costs. For example, accounts with a formal residency,” (Hugo, 1996), they migration is a highly gender- institution (Castells-Quintana et often have no choice but to specific process, with most al. 2015). leave, irrespective of the migrants being young men, Sufficient institutional productivity potential of origin which may disturb social • quality: People may choose and destination location. processes such as not to migrate even if they Conflict may also force people formation (on split family would benefit from migration if to choose sub-optimal locations migration in Kenya see Agesa inadequate institutions reduce regardless of their economic and Kim, 2001). their incentives to do so. Land opportunities. These are signs • Sufficient information: tenure security, for example, of policy failure and Insufficient information on can affect incentives to migrate, maladaptation. potential costs and benefits of if people are not able to sell Policy-makers should also be migrating to certain destinations their land or are not confident of aware of the wider socio-economic can lead to inefficient migration reclaiming it upon return effects of private migration choices. decisions. Migrants may incur (Deininger and Jin, 2006; Flanking measures may be needed 14 Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries

both in areas affected by outward of people being resettled are labour markets and public migration and in the receiving very high. services. jurisdictions. • Supporting receiving • Directing migrants away • Supporting areas affected jurisdictions: Public policy from environmental harm: by outward migration: The can help manage the There may also be a need to effect of outward migration and absorption process in receiving direct migration movements to ‘brain drain’, which is a concern jurisdictions. The arrival of areas of decreased in most PRISE countries (see migrants poses important environmental risk. Many Table 1) can be lessened by economic and social challenges. migrants move from promoting links between A receiving city’s labour market environmentally vulnerable migrants and their region of and infrastructure might not areas to areas that are equally origin, for example, if migrants have the capacities to vulnerable, albeit for different send remittances back home or accommodate rapidly reasons. For example, in Dakar return to invest newly-acquired increasing numbers of people. If (SSenegal), more than 40 per capital or skills. However, if arriving migrants encounter cent of new migrant climate change makes certain problems entering the labour populations are located in high- areas inhospitable, voluntary market or do not have access risk flood zones (Foresight, migration may eventually give to public goods this will lead to 2011). It is important to identify way to ‘managed retreat’. Such economic and social problems. such migration movements and resettlement is a delicate It is therefore crucial to take measures to either redirect process and the economic, strengthen the absorptive them or reduce the risks psychological and social costs capacity of migration present in receiving areas. destinations, in particular urban

Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries 15

16 Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries

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This work was carried out under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia CARIAA), with financial support from the UK Government’s Department for International Development (DfID) and the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada. The views expressed in this work are those of the creators and do not necessarily represent those of DfID and IDRC or its Board of Governors. This work was also carried out with financial support from Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC), through a project on the Economics of Adaptation and Climate-Resilient Development.

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