Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries Maria Waldinger and Sam Fankhauser Policy paper October 2015 ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment The Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP) was established in 2008 to advance public and private action on climate change through rigorous, innovative research. The Centre is hosted jointly by the University of Leeds and the London School of Economics and Political Science. It is funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council. More information about the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy can be found at: http://www.cccep.ac.uk The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment was established in 2008 at the London School of Economics and Political Science. The Institute brings together international expertise on economics, as well as finance, geography, the environment, international development and political economy to establish a world-leading centre for policy-relevant research, teaching and training in climate change and the environment. It is funded by the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment, which also funds the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College London. More information about the Grantham Research Institute can be found at: http://www.lse.ac.uk/grantham/ The authors Maria Waldinger is a Post-Doctoral Researcher at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science and at the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy. Sam Fankhauser is Co-Director of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science and Deputy Director of the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy. This policy paper is intended to inform decision-makers in the public, private and third sectors. It has been reviewed by at least two internal referees before publication. The views expressed in this paper represent those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the host institutions or funders. Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries Policy Paper Research for climate-resilient futures Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries October 2015 Maria Waldinger Sam Fankhauser This report has been produced as part of a series of preliminary papers to guide the long-term research agenda of the Pathways to Resilience in Semi-arid Economies (PRISE) project. PRISE is a five-year, multi-country research project that generates new knowledge about how economic development in semi-arid regions can be made more equitable and resilient to climate change. Front cover image: Pakistan relief efforts continue © DVIDSHUB CC4.0 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/legalcode 2 Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries Acknowledgements This work was carried out under the Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia (CARIAA) with financial support from the UK Government’s Department for International Development and the International Development Research Centre, Ottawa, Canada. The views expressed in this work are those of the creators and do not necessarily represent those of the UK Government’s Department for International Development, the International Development Research Centre, Canada or its Board of Governors. This work was also carried out with financial support from Canada’s International Development Research Centre (IDRC), through a project on the Economics of Adaptation and Climate-Resilient Development. The authors are grateful to Bhim Adhikari, Declan Conway, Chris Duffy, Ara Jo, Tom McDermott, Anna Okatenko, Estelle Rouhaud, Kashif Salik, Catherine Simonet, Abid Suleri, Paul Watkiss and PRISE colleagues for their comments and feedback. Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries 3 4 Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries Contents Acknowledgements 3 1. Summary and introduction 7 2. Important concepts 9 2.1 Forms of migration 9 2.2 Environmental refugees 9 3. The impact of climate change on migration 10 3.1 Reasons to migrate 10 3.2 Climate effects on migration I: via income 10 3.3 Climate effects on migration II: via conflict 10 3.4 Empirical evidence on climate and migration 10 3.5 Historical evidence on climate and migration 11 4. The economic effects of migration on developing countries 12 4.1 Internal migration 12 4.2 International migration 12 5. Policy recommendations 14 References 17 Tables Table 1: Population, urbanisation and migration trends in PRISE countries 9 Climate Climate change change and migration and migration in developing in developing countri countries:es: evidence evidence and implications and implications for PRISE for PRISEcountries countries 55 6 Climate change and migration in developing countries: evidence and implications for PRISE countries 1. Summary and introduction This paper informs the evidence of this, for example in the migrants, particularly high in development community about the Sahel region of West Africa areas with poor transportation effects of climate change on (Scheffran et al., 2012a, 2012b). infrastructure. migration patterns within and out of Migration might also be an effective • Improve institutional quality to developing countries. It response to the climate risks of the ensure the incentives to migrate concentrates on the economic future, but only under certain pre- are not reduced, in particular in aspects of migration and on conditions. the context of land tenure information that is relevant for the Access to information on the security when people are not six semi-arid countries that are the economic and social costs of able to sell their land or are not focus of the PRISE (Pathways to migration, on the advantage and confident of reclaiming it upon Resilience in Semi-Arid Economies) disadvantages of potential return. project: Burkina Faso, Senegal, destination locations, and the Kenya, Tanzania, Pakistan and • Define the legal status of absence of credit constraints can Tajikistan. The insights are drawn environmental migrants, for help potential migrants make from a broader review of the example, through a process led decisions that will improve their evidence by Waldinger (2015). by the UN or UNHCR, in order livelihoods. The economy of to give people certainty about The empirical evidence shows that Tajikistan, for example, is their legal situation. people in developing countries are benefitting from the remittances of likely to respond to climatic change migrant workers abroad (World • Put in place safeguards against by migrating internally. There is less Bank, 2014). distress migration, for example evidence on the relationship in the event of conflict, which Policy intervention is required to between climate change and can force people to choose reduce potential negative impacts international migration. sub-optimal migration in both the sending and receiving strategies, leading to The effect of climate change on region. Badly managed migration is maladaptation. migration depends crucially on associated with high economic, socio-economic, political, and social and psychological costs. • Support the areas affected by institutional conditions. These Nor will climate risks at the outward migration by promoting conditions affect both vulnerability destination necessarily be lower, as links between migrants and to climate change and how the example of Senegal shows their region of origin; “managed important climate change is in (Foresight, 2011). retreat” from severely affected determining migration decisions. regions may be a last resort if Planned, proactive migration may they become inhospitable. People working in the agricultural be a necessary and effective sector are particularly affected by response to climate risks. • Support the absorptive capacity short-term climate shocks Uncoordinated distress migration is of the receiving jurisdictions, in (droughts, flooding etc.) and long- a sign of adaptation failure. To particular urban labour markets term climate change. There is ensure effective migration choices and public services, to manage evidence of this from Tanzania and a good management of the the socio-economic and many other countries (CCCS wider socio-economic effects, implications of the arrival of 2014). Their vulnerability, however, policy-makers should: migrants in a new destination. depends on their ability to adapt to • Provide sufficient information • Direct migrants away from these changes, for example about the costs and benefits of environmentally vulnerable through the use of new crop migrating, including areas where they move to for varieties, as well as through non- psychological and social, along different reasons, as is the case agricultural activities, such as with more clarity about in Senegal where more than 40 consumption smoothing through alternative adaptation options. per cent of new migrant access to credit, insurance and populations are located in high • Release credit constraints, social safety nets. risk flood zones. present in all PRISE countries Migration has been a frequent and in particular in Senegal