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The AIR Hurricane Model The AIR Hurricane Model: AIR Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Model V14.0.1 as Implemented in CLASIC/2™ V14.1.0 Submitted in Compliance with the Copyright 2011 Standards of the Florida Commission 2012 AIR Worldwide Corporation. All rights reserved. on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology UNICEDE, CATMAP and CATRADER are registered trademarks of AIR Worldwide Corporation.January 2013 Copyright © 2012 AIR Worldwide Corporation. All rights reserved. UNICEDE, CATMAP and CATRADER are registered trademarks of AIR Worldwide Corporation. AIRWeather, ALERT, CLASIC/2 and CLAS are trademarks of AIR Worldwide Corporation. Microsoft is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation. Contact information AIR Worldwide Corporation 131 Dartmouth Street Boston, Massachusetts 02116-7603 USA Tel: (617) 267-6645 Fax: (617) 267-8284 2 Model Submission Checklist Please indicate by checking below that the following has been included in your submission documentation to the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology. Yes No Item 1. Letter to the Commission a. Refers to the Certification Forms and states that professionals having credentials and/or experience in the areas of meteorology, engineering, actuarial science, statistics, and computer science have reviewed the model for compliance with the Standards b. States model is ready to be reviewed by the Professional Team c. Any caveats to the above statements noted with a complete explanation 2. Summary statement of compliance with each individual Standard and the data and analyses required in the Disclosures and Forms 3. General description of any trade secret information the modeler intends to present to the Professional Team 4. Model Identification 5. 7 Bound Copies (duplexed) 6. Link containing: a. Submission text in PDF format b. PDF file highlightable and bookmarked by Standard, Form, and section c. Data file names include abbreviated name of modeler, Standards year, and Form name (when applicable) d. Form S-6 (if required) in PDF format e. Forms M-1, M-3, V-2, A-1, A-2, A-3, A-4, A-5, A-7, and A-8 in Excel format f. Form S-6 in ASCII format (if required) 7. Table of Contents 8. Materials consecutively numbered from beginning to end starting with the first page (including cover) using a single numbering system 9. All tables, graphs, and other non-text items consecutively numbered using whole numbers 10. All tables, graphs, and other non-text items specifically listed in Table of Contents 11. All tables, graphs, and other non-text items clearly labeled with abbreviations defined 12. All column headings shown and repeated at the top of every subsequent page for Forms and tables 13. Standards, Disclosures, and Forms in italics, modeler responses in non-italics 14. Graphs accompanied by legends and labels for all elements 15. All units of measurement clearly identified with appropriate units used 16. Hard copy of all Forms included in submission document Appendix except Forms V-3, A-6, and S-6 3 Explanation of “No” responses indicated above. (Attach additional pages if needed.) Form S6 was submitted as a requirement under the 2009 Standards. The results are unchanged. AIR Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Model V14.0.1 as Implemented in CLASIC/2™ V14.1.0 January 9, 2013 Model Name Modeler Signature Date 4 Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology Model Identification Name of Model and Version: AIR Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Model V14.0.1 as Implemented in CLASIC/2™ V14.1.0 Name of Modeling Organization: AIR Worldwide Corporation Street Address: 131 Dartmouth Street City, State, ZIP Code: Boston, MA 02116-7603 Mailing Address, if different from above: Contact Person: Brandie Andrews Phone Number: (617) 267-6645 Fax Number: (617) 267-8284 E-mail Address: [email protected] Date: January 9, 2013 5 Trade Secret Information to be Presented to the Professional Team in Connection with the Acceptability Process The trade secret items in addition to Form V-3 and Form A-6 will be identified by the Professional Team during the on-site and/or additional verification reviews. All trade secret items identified will be documented in the Professional Team report to the Commission. Form S-6 was submitted as a requirement under the 2009 Standards. The results are unchanged. 6 Table of Contents Table of Contents Model Submission Checklist ................................................................................................................... 3 Model Identification ................................................................................................................................ 5 Trade Secret Information to be Presented to the Professional Team in Connection with the Acceptability Process .............................................................................................................................. 6 Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................... 7 List of Figures ..................................................................................................................................... 9 List of Tables .................................................................................................................................... 12 2011 General Standards......................................................................................................................... 15 G-1: Scope of the Computer Model and Its Implementation ............................................................ 15 G-2: Qualifications of Modeling Organization Personnel and Consultants ...................................... 34 G-3: Risk Location ............................................................................................................................ 52 G-4: Independence of Model Components ....................................................................................... 54 G-5: Editorial Compliance ................................................................................................................ 55 2011 Meteorological Standards ............................................................................................................. 57 M-1: Base Hurricane Storm Set ........................................................................................................ 57 M-2: Hurricane Parameters and Characteristics ............................................................................... 59 M-3: Hurricane Probabilities ............................................................................................................ 66 M-4: Hurricane Windfield Structure ................................................................................................. 70 M-5: Landfall and Over-Land Weakening Methodologies ............................................................... 78 M-6: Logical Relationships of Hurricane Characteristics ................................................................. 81 2011 Vulnerability Standards ................................................................................................................ 82 V-1: Derivation of Vulnerability Functions ...................................................................................... 82 V-2: Derivation of Contents and Time Element Vulnerability Functions ...................................... 104 V-3: Mitigation Measures ............................................................................................................... 109 2011 Actuarial Standards .................................................................................................................... 114 A-1: Modeling Input Data ............................................................................................................... 114 A-2: Event Definition ..................................................................................................................... 121 A-3: Modeled Loss Cost and Probable Maximum Loss Considerations ........................................ 122 A-4: Policy Conditions ................................................................................................................... 126 A-5: Coverages ............................................................................................................................... 129 A-6: Loss Output ............................................................................................................................. 131 2011 Statistical Standards ................................................................................................................... 140 S-1: Modeled Results and Goodness-of-Fit .................................................................................... 140 S-2: Sensitivity Analysis for Model Output .................................................................................... 151 S-3: Uncertainty Analysis for Model Output .................................................................................. 154 S-4: County Level Aggregation ...................................................................................................... 157 S-5: Replication of Known Hurricane Losses ................................................................................. 158 S-6: Comparison of Projected Hurricane Loss Costs ...................................................................... 165 2011 Computer Standards ..................................................................................................................
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