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Modeling Destination Choice in Hurricane Evacuation with An Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School 2005 Modeling destination choice in hurricane evacuation with an intervening opportunity model Bin Chen Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Civil and Environmental Engineering Commons Recommended Citation Chen, Bin, "Modeling destination choice in hurricane evacuation with an intervening opportunity model" (2005). LSU Master's Theses. 2595. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/2595 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. MODELING DESTINATION CHOICE IN HURRICANE EVACUATION WITH AN INTERVENING OPPORTUNITY MODEL A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering in The Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering by Bin Chen B.S., Tsinghua University, 2001 May 2005 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This paper would not be possible without the help of many people. First and foremost I would like to thank my advisor Dr. Wilmot for his insight and support that contributed immensely to this work. I would also like to thank him for his guidance and encouragement during the difficult time. A special thank goes to Dr. Ishak for his understanding and help. And I also want to thank Dr. Wolshon for his instruction and valuable suggestion. Special gratitude is extended to Professor Earl J. Baker of Florida State University for providing the data on which this research was conducted. My many friends in LSU, including the friends in transportation lab, have made my life here a pleasant journey. In writing this paper, Naveen has given me unselfish help on several occasions. Finally I am thankful for my loving family, my parents and my brother for their endless love and support. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ........................................................................................ ii LIST OF TABLES........................................................................................................ vi LIST OF FIGURES..................................................................................................... vii ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................... ix CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION .............................................................................. 1 1.1 Background .............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Purpose of Study ...................................................................................................... 2 CHAPTER 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ................................................................. 3 2.1 Hurricanes ................................................................................................................ 3 2.2 Hurricane Floyd ....................................................................................................... 5 2.3 Trip Distribution ...................................................................................................... 6 2.3.1 Destination Choice in Hurricane Evacuation ................................................... 7 2.3.2 Evacuation Modeling Development and State-of–the-art................................ 8 2.4 Intervening Opportunity Model ............................................................................... 9 2.4.1 Formulation .................................................................................................... 10 2.4.2 Application and Evaluation of the Intervening Opportunity Model, Past Experience...................................................................................................... 14 2.4.3 The Similarity of the Gravity Model and Opportunity Model....................... 16 2.4.4 Calibration Method and Model Performance................................................. 17 2.4.5 Goodness-of-fit Measure for Comparison of Geographic Interaction Models ........................................................................................................................ 23 2.4.6 Conclusion...................................................................................................... 24 CHAPTER 3. DATA .................................................................................................. 26 3.1 Survey Data............................................................................................................ 26 3.2 Data Cleaning......................................................................................................... 26 3.3 Separation of the Data............................................................................................ 28 3.4 Geocoding of the Origins and Destinations ........................................................... 28 3.5 Highway Network .................................................................................................. 30 CHAPTER 4. MODELING IN TRANSCAD ENVIRONMENT: BUILDING AN INTERVENING OPPORTUNITY MODEL........................ 31 4.1 Building the Intervening Opportunity Model ........................................................ 31 iii 4.2 Calibrating the IOM ............................................................................................... 31 4.2.1 Building an O-D Matrix from the Data.......................................................... 31 4.2.2 Building an Opportunity Matrix..................................................................... 32 4.2.3 Calibration of IOM in TransCAD .................................................................. 34 4.2.4 IOM Calibration Using Linear Regression .................................................... 35 4.3 Applying the IOM.................................................................................................. 38 4.3.1 Adding Production and Attraction Information ............................................. 38 4.3.2 Apply the distribution model.......................................................................... 39 4.4 IOM Model Performance ....................................................................................... 39 4.4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 39 4.4.2 R2 Statistics and Data Comparison................................................................. 39 4.4.3 Trip Length Distribution ................................................................................ 41 CHAPTER 5. THEORETICAL EXTENSION OF THE INTERVENING OPPORTUNITY MODEL ........................................................................................ 45 5.1. Background ........................................................................................................... 45 5.2 A New Extended Opportunity Model .................................................................... 46 5.3 Applying the Extended Opportunity Model in TransCAD.................................... 50 5.3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................... 50 5.3.2 Assumptions of the Coordinate System ......................................................... 50 5.3.3 Linear Transformation on the Coordinates .................................................... 53 5.3.4 Selection of the Shape of the Contour Lines.................................................. 53 5.3.5 Equal Destination Attractiveness Contour ..................................................... 55 5.3.6 Extended IOM Realization in TransCAD ...................................................... 58 CHAPTER 6. COMPARISON OF THREE DIFFERENT MODELS........... 60 6.1 Building a Gravity Model for Comparison............................................................ 60 6.2 Comparison of the Result of the Three Models ..................................................... 60 6.2.1 Average Trip Length ...................................................................................... 60 6.2.2 Coincidence Ratio .......................................................................................... 61 6.2.3 RMSE............................................................................................................. 62 6.2.4 SRMSE........................................................................................................... 62 6.2.5 Information Gain............................................................................................ 63 6.3 Conclusion and Model Comparison....................................................................... 64 CHAPTER 7. SUMMARY AND FUTURE WORK ........................................ 66 7.1 Summary of Model Development.......................................................................... 66 7.2 Summary of Results and Discussion...................................................................... 66 7.3 Opportunities for Future Research......................................................................... 67 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................
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