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2008 Hurricane Evacuation Survey

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2008 Hurricane Evacuation Survey 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No. Report No. FHWA/LA.12/494 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Development of a Time-Dependent Hurricane January 2013 Evacuation Model for the New Orleans Area 6. Performing Organization Code 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. Chester G. Wilmot and Ravindra Gudishala 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. Louisiana Transportation Research Center and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Louisiana State University 11. Contract or Grant No. LTRC Project No. 06-2SS, SIO Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70803 No. 30000126, Federal No. SPR-0011(033) 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered Louisiana Transportation Research Center Final Report 4101 Gourrier Ave. 07/01/08 – 06/30/12 Louisiana State University 14. Sponsoring Agency Code Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70808 15. Supplementary Notes 16. Abstract Revealed preference is the traditional method to collect hurricane evacuation behavior data. However, revealed preference surveys, as they are currently administered, have the disadvantage that they are unable to collect time-sensitive and policy-sensitive data needed to test evacuation policies. Since time-sensitive and policy- sensitive data is necessary for effective evacuation demand modeling and no methods currently exist to collect such data, this study reports on the development and testing of a candidate procedure to address this need. The procedure involves using the stated choice approach to data collection adapted to collect dynamic information and enhance the realism of each scenario by presenting it in audio-visual form on a DVD. Nine hypothetical storms were presented in audio-visual form through a series of time-dependent scenarios to a random sample of respondents in the New Orleans metropolitan area. The new method was evaluated by collecting data using both new and traditional methods and comparing their cost and their ability to produce good evacuation models. In the new method, survey respondents watched animations of storm scenarios and stated how they believed they would behave in each time interval as the storm approached, while in the traditional method they reported on their actual behavior during Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall near New Orleans in 2008. Results indicate that the new stated-choice method is easy to use and effective in collecting time-dependent and policy- sensitive data but costs 25 percent more than the traditional method. The new method appears to have the potential of evolving into a survey instrument that can be used by researchers and practitioners working in hurricane evacuation modeling. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement Evacuation, Hurricane, Modeling Unrestricted. 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price not applicable 185 Project Review Committee Each research project has an advisory committee appointed by the LTRC Director. The Project Review Committee is responsible for assisting the LTRC Administrator or Manager in the development of acceptable research problem statements, requests for proposals, review of research proposals, oversight of approved research projects, and implementation of findings. LTRC appreciates the dedication of the following Project Review Committee Members in guiding this research study to fruition. LTRC Manager Chester Wilmot Planning/Intermodal Research Manager Members Michael Boudreaux, LTRC Dan Broussard, Louisiana DOTD Jerry W. Sneed, City of New Orleans Peter Allain, Louisiana DOTD Directorate Implementation Sponsor William B. Temple Chief Engineer iii Development of a Time-Dependent Hurricane Evacuation Model for the New Orleans Area by Chester G. Wilmot Ravindra Gudishala Louisiana Transportation Research Center and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Louisiana State University Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70803 LTRC Project No. 06-2SS State Project No. 736-99-1715 conducted for Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development Louisiana Transportation Research Center The contents of this report reflect the views of the author/principal investigator who is responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development or the Louisiana Transportation Research Center. This report does not constitute a standard, specification, or regulation. January 2013 v ABSTRACT Revealed preference is the traditional method to collect hurricane evacuation behavior data. However, revealed preference surveys, as they are currently administered, have the disadvantage that they are unable to collect time-sensitive and policy-sensitive data needed to test evacuation policies. Since time-sensitive and policy-sensitive data is necessary for effective evacuation demand modeling and no methods currently exist to collect such data, this study reports on the development and testing of a candidate procedure to address this need. The procedure involves using the stated choice approach to data collection adapted to collect dynamic information and enhance the realism of each scenario by presenting it in audio-visual form on a DVD. Nine hypothetical storms were presented in audio-visual form through a series of time-dependent scenarios to a random sample of respondents in the New Orleans metropolitan area. The new method was evaluated by collecting data using both new and traditional methods and comparing their cost and their ability to produce good evacuation models. In the new method, survey respondents watched animations of storm scenarios and stated how they believed they would behave in each time interval as the storm approached, while in the traditional method they reported on their actual behavior during Hurricane Gustav, which made landfall near New Orleans in 2008. Results indicate that the new stated-choice method is easy to use and effective in collecting time-dependent and policy-sensitive data but costs 25 percent more than the traditional method. The new method appears to have the potential of evolving into a survey instrument that can be used by researchers and practitioners working in hurricane evacuation modeling. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The research reported in this document was conducted with funding from the Louisiana Transportation Research Center in a research project titled “Development of a Time- Dependent Hurricane Evacuation Model for the New Orleans Area” (project 06-2SS). The authors wish to acknowledge their initiative in launching and funding this research. v IMPLEMENTATION STATEMENT The research in this study developed a novel method to collect hurricane evacuation behavior data. The new method can be used to collect time-sensitive evacuation behavior data without having to wait for an actual event to occur. The data collected using the new method can be used in multiple ways: to build evacuation demand models, to test alternative evacuation strategies, and also as an input to evacuation simulation. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ........................................................................................................ v IMPLEMENTATION STATEMENT .................................................................................... vii TABLE OF CONTENTS ......................................................................................................... ix LIST OF TABLES ................................................................................................................. xiii INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................................... 1 Background ................................................................................................................... 1 OBJECTIVE ............................................................................................................................. 5 SCOPE ...................................................................................................................................... 7 LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................................................................................... 9 Stated Choice Methods ................................................................................................. 9 Experimental Design ......................................................................................... 9 Constrained Designs ....................................................................................... 10 Pivot Designs .................................................................................................. 11 Current State-of-Practice in Stated Choice Design ......................................... 11 Past Studies That Used Stated Choice to Study Hurricane Evacuation Behavior ...... 11 Main Factors Influencing Evacuation Behavior ......................................................... 12 Time-dependent, Audio-Visual, Data Collection Methods Used in the Past ............. 13 Medium Used to Present Stated Choice Experiments ................................................ 13 Conclusions Drawn from the Literature Review ............................................ 14 METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................
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