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Haiti Country Social Analysis Report No. 36069–HT Haiti Social Resilience and State Fragility in Haiti A Country Social Analysis April 27, 2006 Caribbean Country Management Unit ESSD Sector Management Unit Latin America and the Caribbean Region Document of the World Bank CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit - Gourde (HTG) EXCHANGE RATE 2001 HTG23.35 = US$1 2002 HTG28.20 = US$1 2003 HTG35.95 = US$1 2004 HTG37 = US$1 2005 HTG40 = US$1 2006 HTG41.9 = US$1 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES Metric System FISCAL YEAR January 1-December 31 Vice President LCR: Pamela Cox Director LCC3C: Caroline D. Anstey Director LCSES: Laura Tuck Sector Manager: McDonald P. Benjamin Task Team Leader: Dorte Verner Social Resilience and State Fragility in Haiti Table of Contents FOREWORD............................................................................................................................ iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY........................................................................................................ I 1. INTRODUCTION ..............................................................................................................1 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND: ORIGINS OF THE RURAL-URBAN DIVIDE .......................................1 ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK ........................................................................................................3 2. THE HAITIAN PEOPLE: DEMOGRAPHICS, POVERTY, AND SOCIOECONOMIC OUTCOMES AND RISKS .......................................................................6 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS..............................................................................................................6 Population, Population Growth and Density, Age Structure, and Urbanization...................7 Household Size and Fertility.................................................................................................8 HAITIAN POVERTY AND INEQUALITY .........................................................................................9 Household Income and Income Generation..........................................................................9 Poverty.................................................................................................................................13 Poverty Correlates: Does Rural Poverty Differ from Urban Poverty? ................................17 Simulation of the Effect of Economic Growth on Poverty in Haiti....................................19 MIGRATION ..............................................................................................................................19 ENDOWMENT AND DISTRIBUTION OF ASSETS AND RESOURCES ..............................................23 Human Capital.....................................................................................................................23 Access to Basic Infrastructure Services ..............................................................................25 Employment ........................................................................................................................27 Unemployment ....................................................................................................................30 SOCIAL COHESION AND VIOLENCE...........................................................................................31 CONCLUSION: DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS FOR VIOLENCE AND CONFLICT RISK.........................................................................................................................36 3. GOVERNANCE AND INSTITUTIONS........................................................................37 HAITI’S FRAGILE STATE...........................................................................................................39 A Legacy of Public Sector Corruption................................................................................40 An Unfinished Decentralization..........................................................................................41 INFRASTRUCTURE AND BASIC SERVICES ..................................................................................43 The Role of the Non-State Sector in the Provision of Basic Services.................................44 Basic Services: Access, Quality, and Equity.......................................................................46 The Problem of State Regulation and Coordination............................................................48 SECURITY.................................................................................................................................49 The Haitian National Police ................................................................................................49 Institutional Capacity and Accountability...........................................................................50 Police Reform......................................................................................................................52 JUSTICE AND RULE OF LAW......................................................................................................53 Judicial Independence and Accountability..........................................................................53 Access to Justice..................................................................................................................54 The Criminal Justice System...............................................................................................55 Lessons Learned 1994-2004................................................................................................56 CONCLUSION: RESTORING THE CAPACITY OF STATE INSTITUTIONS .........................................58 4. POLITICAL FORCES AND ACTORS.........................................................................60 A HISTORY OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE .......................................................................................60 A DIFFICULT DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION, 1990-2004...............................................................62 POLITICAL MOBILIZATION AND ENTREPRENEURS OF VIOLENCE ..............................................63 CHECKS AND BALANCES IN HAITI’S POLITICAL PROCESS ........................................................65 CONCLUSION: STRONG NATIONAL LEADERSHIP IS CRUCIAL TO BREAKING THE CONFLICT- POVERTY TRAP.........................................................................................................................66 5. CONCLUSION: BREAKING OUT OF THE CONFLICT-POVERTY TRAP ........67 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................................73 APPENDIX A: COUNTRY AT A GLANCE ............................................................................81 APPENDIX B: DEMOGRAPHY................................................................................................83 APPENDIX C: DATA AND METHODOLOGY......................................................................85 APPENDIX D: INCIDENCE OF EDUCATION LEVEL AND POVERTY CORRELATES ........................................................................................................................................................89 APPENDIX E: POVERTY PROFILE.......................................................................................91 APPENDIX F: ACCESS TO BASIC SERVICES IN HAITI...................................................97 APPENDIX G: COHESION AND VIOLENCE IN HAITI ...................................................100 FOREWORD Dorte Verner and Willy Egset (task team leaders and the main authors of this report) led the report team. The work was based on the findings of various missions that visited Haiti during 2005, and on additional research undertaken during 2004. The task team includes Stephanie Kuttner, Michael Justesen, Gillette Hall, Dan Erikson (consultant, Inter-American Dialogue), Katherine Bain, Emma Grant, and Franka Braun. The report does not reflect developments since February 17, 2006. This report is the result of collaboration among several Bank units. Funding for the study was contributed by the Haiti Country Management Unit, the Social Development Department, the Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Unit, the LICUS/Fragile State Unit, and the PREM Civil Society Group in Latin America. The funding is gratefully acknowledged. Background papers, notes, and direct input to the report were prepared by Gillette Hall (social protection), Dan Erikson (political situation), Willy Egset and Mark Mattner (urban violence), Michael Justesen and Dorte Verner (youth), Stephanie Kuttner (governance), Dorte Verner (poverty, growth, and labor markets), Katherine Bain, Emma Grant, and Franka Braun (non-state service provision), and Nathalie Lamaute, Gilles Damai, and Willy Egset (rural governance and local institutions). Andrew Crawley edited the report and Vivian Callaghan provided administrative support. The report was produced under the supervision of Caroline Anstey, Director, and McDonald Benjamin, Sector Manager. The members of the team would like to thank other Bank staff and individuals from outside the Bank for support, guidance, and comments. Special thanks are due to Joelle Dehasse, Senior Country Officer, for her support throughout the process. Several other people helped the team, including Christian Lotz, Per Wam, Antonella Bassani, Estanislao Gacitua-Mario, Garry Charlier, Pierre Werbrouk, Mark Mattner, John Redwood, Mark Schneider (International Crisis Group), Jocelyn McCalla (National Coalition for Haitian Rights), Jim Dobbins (RAND Corporation),
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