Sunday Times and Behaviour & Attitudes October Opinion Poll 2018
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Sunday Times and Behaviour & Attitudes October Opinion Poll 2018 Prepared by Ian McShane J.9408 1 Technical Appendix 2 Technical Appendix Sample Size Fieldwork Location The sample was stratified As such, the results can be across all constituencies at 125 deemed to be accurate to The results of this opinion locations in the country with within plus or minus 3.3 poll are based upon a individuals selected for percentage points at the 95% representative sample of 930 interview by way of confidence level. Fieldwork eligible Irish voters aged 18 Demographic Quotas (age, was conducted on an in- years +. gender, socio-economic home, face-to-face basis over th th status) in line with Central the period 5 – 16 October Statistics Office (CSO) and 2018. market research industry population estimates. 3 Technical Appendix Weighting Party Support Guidelines All aspects of the survey, The subsequent survey Party support levels are including the Party Support results are weighted to reflect subsequently realigned in adjustment factor, are the known demographic accordance with a technical implemented in accordance profile of Irish adults, utilising adjustment factor, designed with the technical and ethical the most recently published to smooth the effects of guidelines set down by the census population estimates extreme highs and lows in Association of Irish Market from the Central Statistics support levels for individual Research Organisations Office (CSO). parties as measured at a single point in time, and (AIMRO) and the European taking variable election day Society of Opinion & Market turnout levels into account. Research (ESOMAR). 4 Charted Summary 5 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Government and Party Leader Satisfaction Levels 42495 2015 2016 2017 2018 11th 13th 8th 11th 12th Nov 9th 13th 16th Dec 16th 8th Mar Apr 9th 6th 11th 12th 7th 19th 15th Jun 12th 14th f/w Dec Jan 2nd Feb 13th 11th 15th 13th 14th 12th 9th f/w Jan Feb f/w f/w May Jun July Sept 10th Nov Dec 11th 13th 13th 17th May f/w 17th 16th Aug Oct 30th f/w f/w Feb f/w Apr May June July Sept Oct Nov 29th f/w f/w 28th 30th f/w f/w f/w f/w Oct f/w f/w Jan Feb Mar Apr f/w 31st July 18th Oct f/w: f/w Oct 30th 4th f/w 15th f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w Nov 3rd 31st Feb Mar 27th 25th 29th 31st f/w 26th 11th f/w f/w f/w f/w 3rd May f/w Sept (f/w 2nd – 5th – – Nov Jan- 1st – – 3rd – 1st- 3rd – 1st- 4th – 1st – 1st – – – Jan – – 8th – April May Jun- Aug- 2nd – Oct– – 4th – 1st – 6th – 5th – – – 5th - f/w 6th 5th – 12th 14th 11th – 9th 13th 2nd 16th 13th 11th 15th 13th 14th 12th 9th 13th 16th 8th Mar 11th –9th – 6th 11th 12th 10th 7th 19th 11th 13th 13th 17th 15th 12th 17th – 18th 16th Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Feb Apr May Jun Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb ch Apr May June Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sept Oct 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 The 30% 33% 28% 35% 33% 34% 33% 22% 24% 26% 30% 36% 31% 34% 34% 31% 29% 26% 34% 35% 35% 39% 41% 39% 44% 51% 44% 48% 50% 47% 41% 46% 48% 43% 41% Government Micheál 39% 41% 39% 40% 41% 39% 44% 42% 44% 46% 50% 48% 48% 45% 50% 49% 53% 49% 49% 49% 52% 54% 53% 50% 50% 55% 50% 50% 55% 51% 47% 49% 49% 48% 49% Martin ** Leo 32% 33% 31% 35% 31% 31% 31% 26% 26% 26% 31% 33% 29% 32% 33% 29% 30% 27% 35% 34% 37% 43% 49% 50% 52% 56% 52% 55% 59% 53% 53% 55% 56% 53% 52% Varadkar Brendan * 37% 36% 34% 39% 34% 34% 30% 27% 28% 40% 43% 39% 36% 38% 39% 39% 39% 34% 41% 38% 37% 42% 44% 40% 40% 46% 42% 45% 44% 45% 45% 43% 43% 41% 42% Howlin Mary Lou *** 34% 34% 36% 35% 32% 36% 32% 33% 30% 31% 38% 33% 32% 38% 32% 31% 39% 38% 43% 38% 37% 43% 40% 38% 32% 38% 37% 39% 46% 51% 52% 52% 53% 50% 46% McDonald * Inclusion of Brendan Howlin as Leader of Labour Party ** Inclusion of Leo Varadkar as Taoiseach ***Inclusion of Mary Lou McDonald as Leader of Sinn Féin Q.2 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country? 6 Q.3 Would you say you are satisfied or dissatisfied with the way (…..) is doing his/her job as (…….)? Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Core Party Support Levels 2015 2016 2017 2018 13th 11th 12th 11th 9th 13th 16th Dec 8th 8th Apr 9th 6th 11th 12th 7th 19th Jun 12th 14th Nov Dec Jan 2nd Feb 13th 11th 15th 13th 14th 12th 9th f/w 16th Feb Mar f/w May Jun July Sept 10th Nov Dec 11th 13th 13th 17th 15th f/w 17th 16th Aug Oct f/w f/w f/w Feb f/w Apr May June July Sept Oct Nov 29th Jan f/w f/w 30th f/w f/w f/w f/w Oct f/w f/w Jan Feb Mar Apr May 31st July 18th Oct f/w: f/w 30th 30th 4th f/w 15th f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w Nov f/w 31st 28th Mar 27th 25th 29th 31st f/w 26th 11th f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w May f/w Sept (f/w 2nd – 5th – Oct – Nov Jan- 1st – – 3rd – 1st- 3rd – 1st- 4th – 1st – 1st – – 3rd – Jan – Feb – April May Jun- Aug- 2nd – Oct– – 4th – 1st – 6th – 5th – 3rd – – 5th - f/w 6th 5th – 12th 14th 11th – 9th 13thJ 2nd 16th 13th 11th 15th 13th 14th 12th 9th 13th 16th 8th – 8th 11th –9th – 6th 11th 12th 10th 7th 19th 11th 13th 13th 17th 15th 12th 17th – 18th 16th Aug Oct Nov Dec an Feb Feb Apr May Jun Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May, June Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Sept Oct 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Fianna Fáil 16% 15% 14% 15% 15% 16% 19% 22% 23% 20% 23% 21% 23% 21% 19% 21% 27% 23% 20% 21% 22% 22% 18% 19% 23%19% 19% 17% 20% 17% 16% 16% 15% 18% 20% Fine Gael 19% 18% 18% 20% 20% 21% 24% 19% 20% 21% 20% 19% 18% 23% 18% 19% 15% 18% 21% 23% 22% 23% 26% 23% 25%25% 25% 27% 26% 24% 22% 23% 27% 24% 23% Labour 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 6% 4% 2% 3% 5% 3% 4% 3% 2% 8% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 4% 3% 3% 5% 5% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4% Sinn Féin 15% 16% 17% 16% 14% 16% 14% 15% 11% 15% 13% 15% 14% 17% 14% 12% 17% 18% 16% 15% 16% 14% 15% 16% 12%15% 15% 15% 15% 17% 19% 19% 18% 20% 17% Green Party 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 16% 14% 15% 15% 15% 13% 13% 13% 12%14% 12% 13% 12% 10% 11% 12% 13% 11% 12% Independen 19% 20% 19% 16% 19% 19% 22% 23% 18% 19% 19% 18% 17% 14% 17% 20% ts/Others Undecided 26% 23% 26% 27% 27% 19% 17% 17% 22% 18% 21% 23% 23% 22% 22% 23% 20% 23% 24% 24% 22% 25% 25% 26% 27%23% 26% 24% 23% 27% 29% 28% 24% 24% 24% Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 7 Sunday Times/Behaviour & Attitudes Party Support Levels (Excluding Undecideds - Unadjusted) 2015 2016 2017 2018 13th 11th 12th 11th 9th 13th 16th Dec 8th 8th Apr 9th 6th 11th 12th 10th 7th 19th 13th 13th 17th Jun 12th 14th Nov Dec Jan 2nd Feb 13th 11th 15th 13th 14th 12th 9th f/w 16th Feb Mar f/w May Jun July Sept Oct Nov Dec 11th Feb Mar Apr 15th f/w 17th 18th 16th Aug Oct f/w f/w f/w Feb f/w Apr May June July Sept Oct Nov 29th Jan f/w f/w 30th f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w Jan f/w f/w f/w May 31st July Sept Oct f/w: f/w 30th 30th 4th f/w 15th f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w f/w Nov f/w 31st 28th Mar 27th 25th 29th 31st 2nd – 26th 11th f/w 1st – 6th – 5th – f/w May f/w f/w (f/w 2nd – 5th – Oct – Nov Jan- 1st – – 3rd – 1st- 3rd – 1st- 4th – 1st – 1st – – 3rd – Jan – Feb – April May Jun- Aug- 10th Oct– – 4th – 13th 13th 17th 3rd – – 5th - 6th – 5th – 12th 14th 11th – 9th 13th 2nd 16th 13th 11th 15th 13th 14th 12th 9th 13th 16th 8th – 8th 11th –9th – 6th 11th 12th Oct 7th 19th 11th Feb Mar Apr 15th 12th 17th 18th 16th Aug Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Feb Apr May Jun Jul Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May, June Jul Sept 17 Nov Dec Jan 18 18 18 May Jun Jul Sept Oct 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 18 18 18 Fianna 22% 20% 19% 21% 20% 20% 23% 26% 29% 25% 29% 27% 30% 26% 24% 27% 34% 30%27% 27% 28% 30%24% 26% 31% 25% 26% 23% 26% 24% 22% 22% 20% 24% 26% Fáil Fine 25% 24% 25% 27% 28% 27% 28% 23% 26% 25% 26% 25% 23% 28% 23% 25% 19% 23%28% 30% 28% 30%34% 31% 34% 33% 34% 36% 33% 33% 32% 31% 36% 32% 31% Gael Labour 5% 7% 7% 7% 5% 7% 4% 3% 4% 6% 4% 5% 4% 3% 9% 5% 5% 5% 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3% 5% 5% 4% 6% 6% 4% 4% 3% 4% 5% Sinn 21% 21% 23% 21% 19% 20% 16% 18% 14% 18% 16% 19% 19% 22% 18% 16% 22% 24%21% 19% 21% 19%20% 22% 16% 19% 20% 20% 19% 23% 26% 26% 24% 26% 23% Féin Green 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% Party 20% 18%20% 19% 19% 17%18% 18% 17% 18% 16% 17% 15% 14% 16% 16% 17% 14% 15% Indepen dent/ 26% 26% 25% 22% 26% 24% 26% 27% 23% 23% 24% 24% 23% 18% 23% 26% Others Q.7 If there was a General Election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? 8 • Predicting election results on the basis of poll data is not an exact science.