General Election & Presidential Election Vote Intention Opinion Poll September 2018 Methodology and Weighting ⁄ RED C interviewed a random sample of 1000 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 6th- 13th September 2018. ⁄ A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered. ⁄ Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile. ⁄ Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results and weights the data between the two. ⁄ Vote intention results are weighted based on turnout, including both how likely each respondent is to actually go and vote on a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, as well as whether or not they voted in the last general election. ⁄ In all respects the poll was completed to the opinion polling guidelines set out by both ESOMAR and AIMRO. 2 First Preference Vote Intention – 16th September 2018 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) Fine Gael 33% -1 Ind. Alliance 4% = Fianna Fáil 22% -3 Sinn Féin 14% -2 Labour 6% = Ind. Candidates 13% +4 Social Solidarity-PBP Democrats Green Renua Other Undecided Voters 2% -1 2% +1 2% = 1% +1 1% +1 11% 3 First Preference Vote Intention – September ‘18 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote) 0.4 Mar May 25th 20th 2016 Sep Election 16th 0.35 34% 33% 33% Apr 32% 29th 0.3 26% 25% 25% 24% 0.25 24% 22% 0.2 16% 16% 14% 14% 0.15 14% 13% 13% 13% 11% 0.1 9% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 4% 4% 4% 0.05 4% 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1% <1% <1% 0% 0% 0 Fine Fianna Sinn Ind. Ind. Solidarity Social Gael Fáil Féin Candidate Labour Alliance -PBP Democrats Green Renua Other 33% 22% 14% 13% 6% 4% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 4 First Preference Vote Intention – Since GE 2016 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote ) 35% Confidence and Leo Varadkar supply agreement becomes leader of 33% reached FG and Taoiseach 30% Fine Gael 25% Fianna Fáil 22% 20% Sinn Féin 15% 14% Independent 13% Labour Ind Alliance 10% Solidarity-PBP Green Party 6% 5% Social Democrats 4% Renua 2% Other 0% 1% GE Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 July '17 Sep '17 Oct '17 Nov '17 Jan '18 Feb '18 Mar '18 Apr '18 May '18Sep '18 2016 5 First Preference Vote Intention – 2012-2018 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote ) 40% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 35% Fine Gael 33% 30% Labour 25% Fianna Fáil 22% 20% Sinn Féin Independent 15% Solidarity-PBP 14% 13% Ind Alliance 10% Green Party Social Democrats 6% 5% Renua 4% Other 2% 0% 1% Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua separately 6 First Preference Vote Intention – 2009 to 2018 If the general election was tomorrow which party or independent candidate do you think you would give your first preference vote to? (Past vote weighted) (Base: All adults 18+ who will vote ) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 45% Fianna Fáil 40% 35% 33% 30% Fine Gael 25% Labour Independent 22% 20% Sinn Féin 14% Ind Alliance 15% Solidarity-PBP 13% Green Party 10% Social Democrats 6% Renua 5% 4% Other 2% 0% 1% Note; From GE 2016 Onwards, ‘Independents/Others’ split out to show Solidarity-PBP, Social Democrats & Renua separately 7 Presidential Election Presidential Election – First Preference The Presidential Election is due to take place on the 26th October 2018. a) Which of the following candidates do you think you might consider voting for in the Presidential Election? b) Which of these candidates will you most likely give your first preference vote to in the Presidential? Election (Base: All Irish Citizens registered and able to vote in any presidential election, n=939 ) 67% 15% 6% 7% 3% 1% 1% Michael D. Sean Gavin Sinn Fein Party Joan Peter Gemma Higgins Gallagher Duffy candidate Freeman Casey O'Doherty (yet to be announced) Undecided Voters 8% 9 Presidential Election – First Preference The Presidential Election is due to take place on the 26th October 2018. a) Which of the following candidates do you think you might consider voting for in the Presidential Election? b) Which of these candidates will you most likely give your first preference vote to in the Presidential? Election (Base: All Irish Citizens registered and able to vote in any presidential election, n=939 ) Any 70% Consideration First 67% Preference 20% 11% 10% 7% 3% 2% 15% 6% 7% 3% 1% 1% Michael D. Sean Gavin Sinn Fein Party Joan Peter Gemma Higgins Gallagher Duffy candidate Freeman Casey O'Doherty (yet to be announced) Undecided Voters 8% 10 First Preference x Age The Presidential Election is due to take place on the 26th October 2018. a) Which of the following candidates do you think you might consider voting for in the Presidential Election? b) Which of these candidates will you most likely give your first preference vote to in the Presidential? Election (Base: All Irish Citizens registered and able to vote in any presidential election, n=939) First Preference The link between Michael D Higgins & Undecided/Ref 18-34’s 35-54’s 55+ Michael D Higgins Michael D. Higgins Undecided (67%) 72% 65% 65% 80% 72% 70% 65% 65% Sean Gallagher (15%) 6% 14% 21% 60% 50% Gavin Duffy 40% (6%) 8% 9% 4% 30% 17% Sinn Fein Party candidate 20% (yet to be announced) 8% 6% 3% 9% 8% (7%) 10% 0% Joan Freeman 5% 3% 2% 18-34's 35-54's 55+ (3%) Peter Casey 0 1% 3% (1%) Gemma O'Doherty 1% 2% 2% (1%) ( ) Figures in brackets total 1st Preference 0% 50% 100%0% 50% 100%0% 50% 100% 11 First Preference x Region The Presidential Election is due to take place on the 26th October 2018. a) Which of the following candidates do you think you might consider voting for in the Presidential Election? b) Which of these candidates will you most likely give your first preference vote to in the Presidential? Election (Base: All Irish Citizens registered and able to vote in any presidential election, n=939) First Preference The link between Michael D Dublin Rest of Leinster Munster Conn./Ulster Higgins & Undecided/Ref Michael D Higgins (67%) 71% 65% 66% 66% Michael D. Higgins Undecided Sean Gallagher 80% 71% 66% 66% (15%) 10% 14% 18% 18% 70% 65% 60% Gavin Duffy 50% (6%) 7% 5% 6% 4% 40% Sinn Fein Party candidate 30% 23% (yet to be announced) 7% 8% 3% 10% 20% 11% (7%) 7% 8% 10% Joan Freeman 3% 5% 4% 1% 0% (3%) Dublin ROL Munster Conn./ Ulster Peter Casey 1% 2% 1% 1% (1%) Gemma O'Doherty 1% 1% 2% 0% (1%) ( ) Figures in brackets total 1st Preference 12 First Preference x Party Preference The Presidential Election is due to take place on the 26th October 2018. a) Which of the following candidates do you think you might consider voting for in the Presidential Election? b) Which of these candidates will you most likely give your first preference vote to in the Presidential? Election (Base: All Irish Citizens registered and able to vote in any presidential election, n=939) First Preference Independent Candidate The link between Michael D Higgins & Undecided/Ref Michael D Higgins (67%) 56% 82% 67% 43% 60% Michael D Higgins Undecided Sean Gallagher 90% 82% (15%) 25% 11% 16% 5% 20% 80% 67% 70% 60% 56% Gavin Duffy 60% (6%) 11% 3% 16% 1% 10% 50% 43% 40% Sinn Fein Party candidate (yet to be announced) 2% 0% 0 46% 0% 30% (7%) 20% 8% 6% 9% 10% 2% 2% Joan Freeman 4% 4% 0 2% 3% (3%) 0% Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Fein Independent Candidate Peter Casey 2% 0 0 0% 4% (1%) Gemma O'Doherty 0 0 1% 3% 3% (1%) ( ) Figures in brackets total 1st Preference 13 .