ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook October 2011 to March 2012 According to the National Metrological Agency (NMA), the Figure 1. Current estimated food security outcomes, October to December rains are forecast to be normal to October 2011 below normal in the southern and southeastern pastoral and agropastoral areas, which have experienced severe drought over the last year. Although seasonal improvements are likely, the level of humanitarian assistance needs in these areas will remain higher than average throughout the outlook period. Following the start of the Meher harvest, the number of people requiring humanitarian assistance is expected to decline substantially through the end of the year. However, the harvest in the eastern marginal Meher producing areas is likely to be below normal due to the inadequate rains during the February to May season, poor performance of the Kiremt (June to September) rains in the first two months of the season, repeated dry spells, and early cessation of the rains in some parts. For more information on FEWS NET’s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: www.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScale The December/January Sapie rains in the dominantly root Source: FEWS NET and WFP crop growing areas of central and eastern SNNPR are anticipated to be below normal given the impact of the developing La Nina. These rains are significant for the production of sweet potatoes which are normally planted in September/October using the residual moisture from the June to September Kiremt season. Poor and very poor households rely heavily on these harvests during the March to May lean season. Staple food prices are likely to decline, following the typical seasonal trend, throughout the first four months of the scenario period; though remain higher than the five‐year average. The magnitude of this decline will be smaller than usual given high inflation and increased transportation costs. Prices could begin rising as early as February/March 2012 and are expected to reach levels similar to this year by July/August. Seasonal calendar and critical events Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET Washington FEWS NET Ethiopia FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors’ views expressed in this 1717 H St NW Tel: 251 11 662 0216 publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency Washington DC 20006 [email protected] for International Development or the United States Government. [email protected] www.fews.net/ethiopia ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook October 2011 to March 2012 Most likely food security scenario (October to December 2011) Inadequate rains during the February to May 2011 Belg Figure 2. Most-likely food security outcomes (October season, irregularity of the Kiremt (June to September) rains to December 2011) during the first two months of the season, repeated dry spells, infestation of pests, and crop diseases have affected agricultural activities in most of the Meher cropping areas, including the western surplus producing areas of western Tigray and northwest Amhara. The inadequate Belg rains particularly affected the long‐cycle, high‐yielding crops (maize and sorghum) in lowland areas. While crop performance improved with better rains in August, crop development in eastern marginal cropping areas was further affected by inadequate rains in September. However, prospects for the overall Meher harvest are close to normal. Cereal prices remain far above last year and the five‐year (2006‐2010) average, but are stable or slightly declining following the typical seasonal pattern in most of FEWS NET/WFP monitored markets. Exceptions were prices for Source: FEWS NET Ethiopia and WFP white sorghum, white wheat and white maize in Addis, Mekele, and Dire Dawa markets which showed an increase Figure 3. Most‐likely food security outcomes (January to ranging from 6 to 10 percent in the last month. Similar trends March 2012) are reported in maize prices in areas such as Bati (Oromia zone in Amhara) and Pugnido (Gambella). In spite of the impacts of the severe drought affecting the southern and southeastern pastoral and agro‐pastoral areas since the end of 2010, livestock prices are generally increasing in many areas due to increased internal and external demands related to holidays. However, due to high cereal prices, livestock to cereals terms of trade remain unfavorable to pastoral households in these areas. Households in these areas have lost large numbers of livestock and are unable to meet livelihoods protection and some basic survival needs, despite humanitarian response. The Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise (EGTE) has allocated about 300,000 MT of wheat for the urban market stabilization Source: FEWS NET Ethiopia and WFP program in 2011/12. Nearly 40 percent of the total resource has already arrived. The subsidized price is not yet determined, but is expected to be higher than during previous years given the higher cost of wheat on international markets. Although the government reduced fuel prices 4‐5 percent following the global decline in oil prices, transport tariffs have been increased since September. Overall, food security has begun to improve in most parts of the country with the start of the Meher harvest. Areas of most concern include southern pastoral and agropastoral areas, central SNNPR, northern Afar, some marginal cropping areas of eastern Amhara and localized areas along the Ethiopia/Sudan/Southern Sudan border. Over the coming six months, projected food security outcomes are based on the following key assumptions: Below normal harvest in the eastern Meher marginal cropping areas and SNNPR and a normal harvest in the western surplus producing areas, despite an irregular start of the season. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2 ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook October 2011 to March 2012 Water and pasture availability will improve in the southern Figure 4. Precipitation Anomaly (mm) and southeastern pastoral and agro‐pastoral parts of the Based on NOAA/CPC RFE Climatology Method country following the anticipated normal to below normal (June 1 to September 30. 2011) Deyr (Oct to Dec 2011) rains. The December/January Sapie rains in eastern and central SNNPR will be below normal due to the developing La Nina, affecting availably of sweet potatoes for consumption and planting. Prices for staple foods will continue to decline during the first four months of the outlook period given the new Meher harvest and continued price stabilization measures by the government. However, they are not expected to decline as much as usual, primarily due to high national inflation and the impact of global prices. Prices are expected to start rising as early as February 2012. A continued influx of people into Benshangul Gumuz region due to conflicts and civil insecurity in the Blue Nile State of South Sudan and continued inflows of Somali refugees into Somali region, as stability and effective humanitarian Source: NOAA/FEWS NET responses are unlikely in Somalia. PSNP resource transfers are assumed to take place as per the Figure 5. Kilograms of maize per local quality plan, but will start late and end late, as has been typical over goat in Liben Zone recent years. Emergency food and non food assistance is likely to be limited between October and March, as is usual given seasonal declines in need and the fact that the national humanitarian requirements document is not typically released until February. Marginal eastern crop producing areas Households in marginal eastern cropping areas of the country meet their food needs through own production (which relies on both Belg and Kiremt rains), food purchases, and relief assistance (emergency Source: Save the Children UK food aid and PSNP). At a national level, the 2011/12 Meher harvest is expected to be close to normal and livestock body conditions have improved as a result of increased pasture and water availability in most areas. However, in many marginal cropping areas, Meher harvests are expected to be less favorable. In many eastern Meher producing parts of the country, including those in the eastern portion of Tigray and Amhara regions, parts of the Rift valley, and East and West Hararghe zones of Oromia region rains were sporadic during the first six weeks of the June to September Kiremt season. This poor start of season was then followed by repeated dry spells, pest infestation and early cessation rains. In sum, overall rainfall distribution and totals were below average (Figure 4). In addition to dryness, heavy rains in the second half of July caused hailstorms, localized floods, water logging, and landslides in parts of Tigray, South Gondor, North and South Wollo zones of Amhara, and North Shewa, Arsi, East and West Hararghe zones of eastern Oromia. These included Dessie Zuria, Mehal Sayint, Mekdella, Legambo and Dawent of South Wollo; Kimbibit, Abuchgna, Girar Jarso and Degem of North Shewa; Asko, Ziwaye Dugda, Sude and Amigna of Arsi; Farta and East Estie of South Gondar; Kobo, Gubalafto and Meket woredas of North Wollo. The June/July Belg harvest this year in North Shewa and South Wollo (areas that rely on both Meher and Belg production) was delayed by about two months and was below average due to poor Belg rains in 2011. The harvests were a total or near failure in East and West Hararghe zones of Oromia, Southern Tigray and North Wollo of Amhara. This led to increased food insecurity during the July to September period. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3 ETHIOPIA Food Security Outlook October 2011 to March 2012 Given recent harvests, food security