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Ethiopia Pastoralist Areas Resilience Improvement and Market Expansion (PRIME) Project Impact Evaluation Report of the Interim Monitoring Survey 2014-2015 November 2015 This report was produced for review by the United States Agency for International Development. It was prepared by Timothy Frankenberger and Lisa Smith for the Feed the Future FEEDBACK project. The authors’ views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the United States Agency for International Development or of the United States Government. Prepared for the United States Agency for International Development, USAID Contract Number GS-23F-8144H/AID-OAA-M-12-00006, Feed the Future FEEDBACK. Recommended Citation: Feed the Future FEEDBACK. 2015. Feed the Future Ethiopia Pastoralist Areas Resilience Improvement and Market Expansion (PRIME) Project Impact Evaluation 2014-2015, Interim Monitoring Survey Report. Rockville, MD: Westat. USAID Bureau for Food Security Contact: [email protected] Westat Contact: Detra Robinson, MA, PMP, Chief of Party Westat 1600 Research Boulevard Rockville, MD 20850 Tel: 301-738-3653 Email: [email protected] Acknowledgements TANGO would like to thank numerous individuals for the support they provided to this PRIME Interim Monitoring Survey. They include Emily Hogue, Tatiana Pulido and Farzana Ramzan (Bureau for Food Security, USAID), Cullen Hughes (USAID/Ethiopia), Mohamed Abdinoor (USAID/Ethiopia), Semachew Kassahun (USAID/Ethiopia), Greg Collins (USAID), Ato Biratu Yigezu (Director General, Central Statistical Agency of Ethiopia), Amin Yusef (Vice President of Development Affairs, Somali Regional State), and Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse (International Food Policy Research Institute/Ethiopia). We are indebted to the staff from Mercy Corps Ethiopia, including Karri Byrne, Jeton Starova, Diana Picon, Mohamed S. Ali, Abdulkadir Jemel, and Mayan S. Ali. We also wish to thank Steve Durako, Detra Robinson, Rodney Knight, Tom Scialfa, and Jason Ives of Westat for their assistance. In addition, we wish to give great thanks to Ato Zenagebril Degu and his staff at Green Professionals Services for their tireless work in collecting the data and supporting the logistics for this survey. We also are grateful to Erwin Knippenberg at Cornell University for his help with the Africa Flood and Drought Monitoring data. Vicki Brown and Darren Hedley are acknowledged for their work on the data analysis and Elizabeth Cuellar as well as Westat staff for formatting assistance. Lastly, we wish to thank all of the gracious people in the kebeles of Borena and Jijiga that took the time to be interviewed for this survey. Tim Frankenberger, President TANGO International Feed the Future Ethiopia PRIME Impact Evaluation: IMS 2014-2015 Report iii Table of Contents Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................. iii List of Acronyms ................................................................................................................ viii Executive Summary .............................................................................................................. ix 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1 The PRIME Project ............................................................................ 1 1.2 Background on Interim Monitoring Survey 2014-15 ................. 2 1.3 Objective of This Report and Research Questions ................... 3 1.4 Resilience and Resilience Capacity ................................................. 4 1.5 Organization of the Report ............................................................. 5 2. Methodology ..................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Data Collection: Quantitative Survey ........................................... 6 2.2 Data Collection: Qualitative Survey .............................................. 8 2.3 Analysis of the Quantitative Data ................................................ 11 2.4 Analysis of the Qualitative Data ................................................... 16 3. Evolution of the Drought............................................................................. 18 3.1 Description of the IE Areas ........................................................... 18 3.2 Normal Rainfall Calendar ............................................................... 19 3.3 Sources of Drought Exposure Information Employed ............ 21 3.4 Evolution of the Drought in Borena ............................................ 22 3.5 Evolution of the Drought in Jijiga ................................................. 26 3.6 Satellite Perspective: Comparing Drought Conditions in Borena and Jijiga .......................................................................... 28 3.7 Humanitarian Response to the Drought .................................... 29 3.8 Summary ............................................................................................ 29 4. Household Drought Exposure: Evidence From the IMS Data ............ 31 4.1 Direct Exposure to the Drought ................................................. 31 4.2 Downstream Drought Impacts ..................................................... 35 4.3 Overall Measures of Shock Exposure ......................................... 42 4.4 Summary ............................................................................................ 46 5. Household Response: Coping Strategies for Dealing With the Drought ........................................................................................................... 48 5.1 Quantitative Data on Coping Strategies Employed for Dealing With the Drought ............................................................. 48 5.2 Qualitative Data on Coping Strategies for Dealing With the Drought ............................................................................ 54 5.2.1 Borena ................................................................................ 54 5.2.2 Jijiga ..................................................................................... 64 5.3 Summary ............................................................................................ 67 Feed the Future Ethiopia PRIME Impact Evaluation: IMS 2014-2015 Report iv Table of Contents (continued) 6. Household Food Security and Resilience in the Face of Drought ........................................................................................................... 69 6.1 Changes in Food Security Between the Baseline and IMS Period ......................................................................................... 69 6.2 Qualitative Data on Food and Livelihood Security During the Drought ........................................................................ 72 6.3 Household Resilience in the Face of the Drought ................... 75 6.4 Summary ............................................................................................ 77 7. The Relationship Between Household Resilience and Pre- Drought Resilience Capacity ....................................................................... 79 7.1 Household Resilience and Drought Exposure .......................... 81 7.2 Household Resilience and Pre-Drought Resilience Capacity ............................................................................................. 84 7.3 Factors Supporting Households’ Resilience Capacities That Contributed to Their Resilience to the Drought ........... 89 7.4 Summary ............................................................................................ 92 8. Does Resilience Capacity Help to Prevent the Use of Negative Coping Strategies? ......................................................................................... 93 8.1 Use of Negative Coping Strategies in IMS Round 1 ................. 94 8.2 Use of Negative Coping Strategies Over the Entire IMS Period ................................................................................................. 96 8.3 Summary ............................................................................................ 96 9. Conclusions .................................................................................................... 99 References ........................................................................................................................ 101 List of Appendixes Appendix 1. Quantitative Questionnaire .................................................................... 103 MODULE 1. Household Identification Cover Sheet .......................... 104 MODULE 1A. Informed Consent Signature Page ............................... 105 MODULE 1A. Informed Consent Duplicate Signature Page ............ 106 MODULE 2. Shocks ................................................................................... 107 Shocks Code List .......................................................................... 108 MODULE 3. Fodder and Water Availability ........................................ 109 MODULE 4. Food Insecurity Coping Strategies.................................. 110 MODULE 5. Household Dietary Diversity ........................................... 111 MODULE 6. Household Hunger ............................................................. 112 Appendix 2. Topical Outlines for Qualitative Data Collection ............................. 114 Feed the Future Ethiopia PRIME Impact Evaluation: IMS 2014-2015 Report v List