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Climate, River Basin, Availability and Planning

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Climate, River Basin, Availability and Planning Resources and Environment 2014, 4(5): 220-233 DOI: 10.5923/j.re.20140405.03 Assessment of Water Availability in the Sokoto Rima River Basin Abdullahi S. A.1,*, Muhammad M. M.1, Adeogun B. K.1, I. U. Mohammed2 1Department of Water Resources and Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria 2Department of Water Supply and Sanitation, National Water Resources Institute, Kaduna, Nigeria Abstract The Sokoto-Rima River basin is located in the north western part of Nigeria, which comprise of four (4) states (i.e Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina and Zamfara) and have population of more than 15million according to 2006 census. This makes the rivers and streams within the basin to be very important source of fresh water to the people living in those states. Therefore, even small decrease in runoff within the basin could have dramatic effects on the water supply of the region. This paper assesses and evaluates the impact of climate change on water availability and investigates the sensitivity of the basin to climate change in Sokoto-Rima river basin using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. This model allows the simulation and analysis of various water allocations and scenarios. The hydrological processes that occur for the six major rivers within the basin during 1970 to 2013 was satisfactorily model and calibrated by visual observation and compared with the measured data. The calibration process of the model was done using the first twenty two years climatological records (1970-1992) and validated with the remaining data (1993-2013). Simulations are proposed for various climatic situations considering the global climatic models (GCM) predictions. Six (6) developed climate change scenarios of temperature increase (0, +0.5, +1℃) coupled with decrease or increases in precipitation (0,-10%, +10%) were combined and applied for the study area in the WEAP model for simulation. Then, the climatically affected runoff, evapotranspiration, and water demand series were obtained as output of the WEAP model. Results indicate that climate change will significantly reduce the runoff, and increase evapotranspiration and water demand in the basin, more especially the demand for irrigation. The results indicate an annual reduction in the total available water of about 1.70 billion cubic meter and monthly water demand of 17.11 Billion Cubic Meter for the month of April (which is the driest month in the basin) for the selected sites under 10% reduction in the actual rainfall within the basin and increase in evapotranspiration under 1℃ increase in temperature, this indicate reduction of the surface water in the future for the basin. In addition, the dependency of the basin on surface water sources make it imperative to apply some methods of efficient use of water resources in the basin to ensure future sustainability. To adapt to the current trend and minimize the significant impact on availability of water supply in the basin in the foreseeable future, some proposed adaptation and mitigation measures to remedy this trend of scarcity ranges from sustainable developments to collaborative planning among the stakeholders within the basin. Keywords Climate, River basin, Availability and planning conditions have altered water resources, their distribution in 1. Introduction space and time, the hydrological cycle of water bodies, water quantity and, in more recent time, water supply systems and Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the average requirements for water resources in the Sokoto-Rima river weather, or more rigorously, as the statistical description in basin, creating serious water shortages for household needs, terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a agriculture and industry. period of time ranging from months to thousands or millions With further significant variations in the climate of the of years. The classical period for averaging these variables is Sahel being predicted by General Circulation Models 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological (GCMs) (IPCC, 2007), it is important that scientific studies Organization. The intergovernmental panel on climate be undertaken at regional levels so as to provide society with change (IPCC) developed the variation of the earth accurate information on the real and potential impacts of temperature for the past 140 years. climate change, as well as, the mitigation and adaptation As climatic variability intensifies, changes in atmospheric options available. (Ekpoh and Ekpenyong, 2011). The Sokoto-Rima River basin is located at north western * Corresponding author: [email protected] (Abdullahi S. A.) part of Nigeria and it covers four (4) states (i.e Sokoto, Kebbi, Published online at http://journal.sapub.org/re Katsina and Zamfara) that have ninety two (92) local Copyright © 2014 Scientific & Academic Publishing. All Rights Reserved government areas for administrative purpose. This makes the Resources and Environment 2014, 4(5): 220-233 221 rivers and streams within the basin to be the important source 2001). of surface water to the people living in those states. In contrast to the assessment of global or large scale Therefore, even small decrease in runoff within the basin variations of the climate driving forces for global hydrology, could have dramatic effects on the water supply of the the impact of climate change on the regional hydrology is region. still unknown for most regions of the world (Kim et. al., To address this need, this study evaluates the impact of 2006). Although climate change is a global phenomenon, the climate change on available water resources in the six main trends and impact may be different on a local scale. rivers of the Sokoto-Rima river basin using a decision support system known as the Water Evaluation and Planning 2.1. Aims and Objectives of the Study (WEAP) Model. WEAP is an analytical framework The aim is to analyse how sensitive is the Sokoto-Rima developed for the evaluation of climate change and other River basin to climatic change with regards to its water drivers that water managers commonly confront (Yates et. al., availability by developing a Model of the basin using WEAP, 2006). Indeed, WEAP model is one of the useful tools for the and propose some mitigation measures that can minimize the integrated water resources management and it can be used as negative impact within the basin by the principle of mass a database for the forecasting and also as a policy analysis balance of the hydrologic quantity of the whole area. tool, depending on the focus of the study. In this regard, the While the objectives are: applicability of WEAP in assessing the impact of climate change as well as its main function of the sophisticated water i) To analyse the present situation of Sokoto-Rima River allocation model is tested in this study. Basin in order to evaluate the present hydrological condition of the entire basin. ii) To measure water availability and demand for each 2. Statement of the Problem sub-basin within the entire River Basin by considering watershed characteristics and the demographic trends. According to Ringiuset, et. al. (1996) although climate iii) To develop water resources WEAP model for the change is expected to affect many sectors of the natural and Sokoto-Rima river basin in order to evaluate the impact man-made environment, water is considered to be the most of climate change for current and future water critical factor associated with climate impacts. A similar idea availability using water balance concept. is also highlighted by Houghton (1997) who stated that the iv) To produce a simulation of the projected water most important impact of global warming is on water availability and to compare the water availability with supplies which are in any case becoming increasingly critical and without the effect of climate change in the study in many places. In the continent of Africa, the observational area and analyse the water resources trend in the part of records show that the climate has been warming through the the basin towards 2100. 20th century at the rate of about 0.05°C per decade (IPCC, Figure 1. Sokoto-Rima River Basins in Nigeria 222 Abdullahi S. A. et al.: Assessment of Water Availability in the Sokoto Rima River Basin 2.2. Description of the Study Area the wet season decreases from the West African coast The study area is Sokoto-Rima River Basin located in the northwards. North-Western region of Nigeria, the area is found between In terms of climatic statistics, the annual rainfall for latitude 10° 04‘ N and Longitude 3° - 8° 14‘ E. The area Sokoto ranges between 300 mm and 800 mm. The mean ℃ covers a land area of approximately 131,600 km2 and shares annual temperature is 34.5 , although dry season its borders with Niger Republic to the north, and covers temperatures in the region often exceed 400C. (Ekpoh and Sokoto, Kebbi, Zamfara and large part of Katsina States to Ekponyong, 2011) the East; it also borders Niger State to the South-east, and 2.5. Description of Hydrology of the Basin Benin Republic to the west. The whole basin can be described as Sudan and Sahel Savanna, and it extends The basin is essentially drained by the river Sokoto, a beyond the border to Niger republic and the northern part of prominent part of Niger river drainage system. The sokoto Benin Republic. The basin topography consists of a vast river rises with its main tributaries, the Ka, Zamfara, and floodplain (fadama land) and rich alluvial soils that is Rima from the 600 to 900 meters high Mashika and Dunia suitable for the cultivation of different variety of crops. highland areas bordering the eastern part of the basin, and There are also isolated hills (inselberg) and hill ranges flows down, rather sluggishly down a gentle slope toward scattered all over the area (Ekpoh and Ekpenyong, 2011).
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