From Theory to Rractical Deployment the Science Behind Predrol the Rremise Behind Predictive Policing Predictive Rolicing Eviden
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Q PREDPOL' THE PREDICTIVE POLICING COMPANY." From Theory to Rractical Deployment The Science Behind PredRol Policing crime patterns is hard. While crime may afflict the same neighborhoods year after year, the day-to-day fluctuations in where and when crimes occur are large. Extensive research has shown that day-to-day crime patterns are the result of: (1) crime generators that are fixed features of The Rremise Behind the environment; (2) repeat and near-repeat victimization that leads previous victims and their neighbors to be at greater risk of follow-on crimes; (3) the routine activity patterns of Predictive Policing offenders that keep risk local; and (4) substantial random noise. Each of these processes is well known empirically, but when put together their impact on how crime hotspots emerge, spread and disappear is incredibly complex. It is very hard to predict where crime If one can accurately predict will occur in the next 10-12 hours given where it occurred yesterday. where and when crimes will Knowledge, skills and experience can reliably direct officers to the top two or three occur; then law enforcement riskiest locations in their operational environment. It is much harder for them to Identify personn'el can disrupt those and choose between locations ~here the risk may be lower and highly variable from day to day. If an officer chooses to go to a location typically fourth in line for crime risk, but a crimes before they happen. crime occurred at a location fifth in line on that day, then an opportunity to disrupt crime is missed. Using high-powered mathematics and real-time crime data, PredPol evaluates yesterday's crimes in the context of all crimes occurring over a long time horizon and wide spatial field to calculate accurate probabilities of where and when crime will occur today. Officers using this information can make it harder for offenders to commit crimes in those locations leading to a net reduction in crime. Predictive Rolicing Evidence from the Field If predictive policing does not perform better than existing practice, or makes the job of the officer on the street harder, then it is better to stick with existing practice. Controlled experimental trials of PredPol were conducted with the Kent Police, UK, and Los Angeles Police Department, USA, with the goal of assessing what (if any) advantages stem from the use of predictive policing. In each experiment, PredPol was tested head-to head against crime analysts using existing practice. PredPol predicts crime In 500' x 500' (150m x 150m) boxes with the number of boxes deployed in a given shift calibrated to the policing resources available. The experimental deployments involved placement of 20 prediction boxes per shift in designated policing divisions. Analysts were tasked with deploying the same number of prediction boxes per shift using all of the tools at their disposal. In Kent West Division, the analyst focused on intelligence-led policing practices, while Los Angeles Foothill Division focused on crime hot spot mapping. In the absence of directed police patrol effects, PredPol predicts between 1.6-2.5 more crime than existing practice. Increased opportunities to impact crime are therefore of a similar magnitude using PredPol. 831.311.45501 [email protected] 1www.predpol.com PREDICT CRIME IN REAL TIME® Q PREDPOL' THE PREDICTIVE POLICING COMPANY.~ Accurate prediction leads not only to unique opportunities to disrupt crime, but also to serve the public at the scale at which crime occurs. In live deployments In both Kent and Los Angeles, officers were directed to use available time between calls or appointments to police what they see. Kent police officers capitalized on these opportunities: 06105113 Whilst potro!fing PredPo/ Zone 8 Harmer Street, Gravesend, Neighborhood officers attended a call to a suspicious mole seen rooking into vehicfes. This male was seen to then break into a vehicle and due to the close proximity the officers they were quickly on scene and detained the mole after a short foot chose. The male, a prolific offender, hod 2 Sot Navs in his pocket stolen from 2 vehicles in Royal Pier rood. If officers hod not already been in the zone they would not have been in o position to catch the offender as he committed the crime. 04106113 PredPof duty in Gravesend with 4 officers in 2 managed ro visit all PredPo/ boxes at feast once during the shrft with different teams to show a high and varied presence, consisting offoot and mobile patrol. While checking vehicles they noticed 2 SAT NAV systems and money in the way of change on display, ~ve traced the registered owners of the vehicfes and gave them advice over the phone, which was much appreciated. 02105113 From a local resident who has lived in the west side of Moidstone for many years: "great to see police around here again you hove really made a big difference in cleaning up this port of town". Disrupting crime during each and every shift can lead to significant crime declines over time. In Kent, the first six months of PredPol deployment produced a steady decline In violent crime of -6%. In los Angeles, the first six months of deployment saw a -12% decline In property crimes overall with a -25% decline in burglary alon.e. The Limits of Predictive Policing PredPo/ is about predicting where and when crime will occur; not who will commit a crime. PredPol is not criminal profiling. It does not use any information about individuals or populations and their characteristics. The patterns inherent In the crimes themselves provide ample information to predict where and when crimes will occur In the future. Predictive policing disrupts the short-term, situational causes of crime. lt does not solve criminality, or the propensity for individuals to commit crime. Predictive policing Is therefore not a replacement for policy and community engagement strategies needed to steer people clear of criminal careers in the first place. Key Contacts PredPol- The Predictive Policing Company Kent Police Dr. P. jeffrey Brantingham Detective Chief Superintendent jon Sutton je/[email protected] [email protected] Los Angeles Police Department Mr. Mark Johnson, Head of Analysis Captain Sean Malinowski [email protected] sean.ma/[email protected] 831.331.4550 [email protected] I www.predpotrom PREDICT CRIME IN REAL TlMf® @ 2013 PredPol, Inc. All dghls reserved. No part of this publication de sui bed herein may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted In any form or by means elettronlc, mechanical, photocopying, recording. or otherwise without the permission of PredPol,ln(, Page I of2 From: Donnie Fowler <[email protected]> To: [email protected], [email protected], [email protected] Date: Friday, September 06, 2013 10: 12AM Subject: Completing the Predictive Policing Deployment Chief Suhr, Susan, & Rod - Happy September to you. I write to let you see the SFPD predictive policing system as it will run when you are ready to deploy. It's one thing when I see deployments in another city and something else entirely when I see predictions where I live here in S. F. You can find it with the simple log-in name and password below: * once you log in, click on red box at the top right and select the whole city or any district Per our most recent conversation, we were waiting for the Oracle work to finalize before finishing our integration with you on general property crimes and on the first-in-the-r;Jation rollout of gun violence predictions·(along with Seattle and Atlanta). If my memory is correct, you thought September would be the likely time. In the last few months, we have had tremendous success with deployments from Alhambra, CA, to Norcross, GA, to Kent, England. You will see some of our work in the attached white papers on results and on gun violence. There are also a few news stories below my signature. All the best, Donnie DONNIE FOWLER Director of Business Development ..4th Street, ..I San Francisco, CA 94114 C:41···~ PREDPOL.COM The Predictive Policing Company In the News ... Fox News· Atlanta, August 2013 ("On the first day, they apprehended a suspect in the middle of committing a burglary.") http://www.myfoxatlanta.com/story/23177698/computer-tries-to-predict The Economist, July 2013 ("easier to foresee wrongdoing and spot likely wrongdoers") http://www.economist.com/news/briefinq/21582042-it-gettinq-easier-foresee-wrongdoinq-and-spot-likely- http://sfmail04.sfgov.org/mail/gsuhr.nsf/(%24Inbox)/8C34B97B743B991 D6276BA51 EE321... 9/23/13 Page 2 of2 wrongdoers-dent-even-think-about-it NBC News- Los Angeles, January 2013 ("a cliff-like drop when predictive policing began") http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/locai/LAPD-Chief-Charlie-Beck-Predictive-Policinq-Forecasts-Crime-185970452.html Current TV with Santa Cruz Crime Analyst & Fmr. Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, January 2013 ("Science fiction has become science fact.") https://current.box.com/s/c6bxouhsdugp3ifngz4s San Francisco Chronicle, August 2012 ("a new web-bases system to monitor real· time crime data and predict when the next violence will occur") http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/SF-mayor-announces-antiviolence-strategy-3770653.php CBS Evening News - National, March 2012 ("It's not how many people you catch, it's how many crimes you prevent") http://www.cbsnews.com/videolwatch/?id~7 404996n Attachments: White Paper Predicting Gun Violence (2013 White Paper Science and Testing of Predictive July).pdf Policing (2013).pdf http://sfmail04.sfgov.org/mail/gsuhr.nsf/(%241nbox)/8C34B97B743B991D6276BA5l EE32l... 9/23/13 Page I of3 From: Suzy Loftus <[email protected]> To: Donnie Fowler <[email protected]>, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> Date: Thursday, May 09, 2013 01:42PM Subject: RE: Predictive Policing & Gun Violence Thanks, Donnie.