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Investment Strategy December 1, 2020

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Investment Strategy December 1, 2020 v Investment Strategy December 1, 2020 SET Index 1,408.31 Change (pts) -29.47 Market Cap (Million B) 120,486.50 SET Index underwent correction as expected yesterday, but it is still driven by local and foreign fund inflow in the medium and long term. Watch political and COVID-19 issues in Thailand closely. Net Trading Value by We sell AAV and CCP and switch to KBANK. Top picks are BGRIM, Investor Type (Million B) KBANK, and STGT. Foreign -4,372.45 Proprietary 725.71 SET correction as expected. Robust in medium, long term Institutional -2,981.96 SET Index yesterday underwent correction as expected mainly because Retail 6,628.70 foreigners were net sellers at B4.37bn, probably just short-term selling from MSCI rebalancing. In the medium and long term, SET Index is still driven by foreign fund inflow and excess liquidity. In the next 1-2 days, the market is keeping an eye on the Constitutional Court's ruling on Prayut Chan-o-cha's legitimacy as prime minister on December 2, 2020 (tomorrow). If the Court disqualifies him, economic stimulus measures would be obstructed and economic recovery would be slowed down, hurting SET Index. Otherwise, if he is legitimate, concern would be softened, boosting SET Index. Meanwhile, COVID-19 infection risk in Thailand is increasing and has to be watched closely. We sell AAV and CCP (10% of portfolio) to take RESEARCH DIVISION profit and switch to KBANK. Top picks are BGRIM, KBANK, and STGT. Asia Plus Securities SET Index vs Neighbor Stock Indices Therdsak Thaveeteeratham Fundamental Investment Analyst on Capital Market, Technical Investment Analyst License No: 004132 Paradorn Tiaranapramote Fundamental Investment Analyst on Securities License No: 075365 Takit Chardcherdsak Fundamental Investment Analyst on Securities License No: 087636 Wanapruk Komonwitayatorn Source: ASPS Research (as of November 30, 2020) Fundamental Investment Analyst on Securities License No: 110506 Pawat Pattrapong Quantitative Analyst Assistant English research reports are a rough translation of our Thai-language research products. It is produced primarily The Thai language research reports and information contained therein are compiled from public data sources and our with time efficiency in mind, so that English-English research reports are a rough translation of our Thai-language analysts' interviews with executives of listed companies. They are presented for informational purposes only and not to be research products. It is produced primarily with time efficiency in mind, so that English-reading clients can see deemed as solicitations to buy or sell any securities. Best attempts have been made to verify information from these vast what the main recommendations are from our Thai-language research team. Given that this is a rough-and-ready sources, but we cannot guarantee their accuracy, adequacy, completeness and timeliness. The analyses and comments translation, Asia Plus Securities Company cannot be held responsible for translation inaccuracies. presented herein are opinions of our analysts and do not necessarily reflect the views of Asia Plus Securities. v MARKET TALK Investment Strategy Watch COVID-19, political issues in Thailand There are two important issues in Thailand this week: 1) COVID-19 – Thailand has been concerned about COVID-19 again, after new cases were reported in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai last weekend. This would adversely affect confidence and tourism in the short term. Yet, it has positive sentiment on rubber glove plays. We favor STGT(FV@B130) and its parent company STA(FV@B50). 2) Politics – On December 2, 2020 (tomorrow afternoon), the Constitutional Court will rule on Prayut Chan-o-cha's legitimacy as prime minister, following complaints that he remains at an army residence after retirement. If the Court rules that he is still legitimate, he will stay in power as prime minister, while economic stimulus measures would not be obstructed. Yet, the market have to watch protestors' stance closely. If the Court rules that he is illegitimate, future economic stimulus measures and investment would be obstructed, resulting in vacuum. Speaking of the previous time the Constitutional Court ordered Prime Minister to resign, on September 9, 2008 in the evening, the Constitutional Court ruled that Samak Sundaravej, the 25th Prime Minister of Thailand, violated the Constitution by being a honorary host of his cooking shows "Tasting, Ranting" and "Touring at 6am" and disqualified him from his Prime Minister post. The economy and SET Index were affected as follows: Change in Prime Minister in 2008 Sep 9, 2008 Dec 17, 2008 Sep 9, 2008 – Dec 2, 2008 Somchai Wongsawat Dec 2, 2008 – Dec 17, 2008 Chavarat Charnvirakul Samak Sundaravej Abhisit Vejjajiva was disqualified as Became Prime Minister Prime Minister Source: ASPS Research . Economy – Government spending plunged in October 2008. Fixed expense (salary, wage, consumable supplies, and subsidies) decreased 30%yoy to B84.6bn, versus the 15-year average growth in October of 17.7%yoy. Investment spending disbursement plummeted 98%yoy to only B563m, versus the 15-year average growth in October of 104%yoy. | 2 v MARKET TALK Investment Strategy Government Budget Disbursement in 2007-2009 Million B Fixed Expense Investment Expenditure 200,000 180,000 164,251 159,555 160,000 132,739 131,280 128,632 128,632 125,971 140,000 125,248 121,123 119,691 118,357 117,227 115,870 114,772 110,789 108,354 107,822 107,295 120,000 104,918 100,423 97,960 93,934 93,861 88,182 100,000 84,630 80,000 52,983 52,029 60,000 45,111 39,973 33,830 30,098 29,793 27,336 40,000 26,813 20,237 19,966 18,627 18,252 18,253 18,023 17,224 14,222 13,110 12,602 11,608 10,673 9,664 20,000 9,468 563 0 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul Jan 09 Jan Jan Jan 08 Jun 08 Jun 09 Oct Oct 07 Oct 08 Apr Apr 08 Apr 09 Feb Feb 08 Sep 08 Feb 09 Sep 09 Dec 07 Dec Dec 08 Dec Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug Nov 07 Nov 08 Nov Mar Mar 08 09 Mar May09 May08 Source: ASPS Research (as of November 30, 2020) . SET Index – On September 10, 2008 (the day after Samak left office), SET Index fell 8 pts or 1.1% to 655 pts, mainly weakened by banking, construction material, contractor, and ICT plays. SET Index fell further on the second and the third day. Returns by Sector (after Samak Sundaravej left office in 2008) Source: ASPS Research (as of November 30, 2020) Investors have to watch closely how this issue will turn out. The atmosphere in the parliament, the Constitution, and the situation outside the parliament (protests) in 2020 are greatly different from in 2008. In the medium and long term, we still believe SET Index is in an uptrend, driven by excess liquidity. | 3 v MARKET TALK Investment Strategy Watch new economic boost, THB measures The market is also keeping an eye on the government's new measures as follows: . On December 2, 2020, the Centre for Economic Situation Administration's (CESA) is set to deliberate three new economic stimulus measures (see Market Talk yesterday): 1) Car trade-in scheme (replacing old cars with new cars) for 100,000 cars, 2) Half-Half package (Kon la Krueng) phase 2 extension to 2021 Chinese New Year, and 3) We Travel Together extension from January 2021 to either 2021 Chinese New Year or 2021 Songkran. Economic Stimulus Measures Economic Stimulus Measures Effective Measures Benefiting Stock Consumption Shop and Payback • Tax deduction on spending of up to B 0,000 CRC, COM7, SPVI, BJC, M Measures under Review Benefiting Stock Consumption Half-half Co-payment Phase • OSP, TKN, SAPPE, Extending program until Feb 2021 TVO • Expanding co-payment limit in phase 2 Automotive Car Trade-in • Discount for car trade-in (replacing old car with new car) AH, SAT, STANLY Source: ASPS Research . On December 9, 2020, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) will implement additional measures to control THB speculation. On November 20, the BOT launched three measures that boost capital outflow in the medium and long term, e.g. more flexibility for investment in securities and stricter rules for foreigners investing in Thai bonds. Investors have to watch closely which measures will be launched, probably not too severe measures. Statistically, after the BOT signaled THB control measures, THB tended to weaken before the actual meeting date. Notably, THB weakened 0.65% in the three days before the BOT launched THB control measures on November 20. THB is expected to strengthen around B30-30.5/US$. If THB strengthens beyond B30/US$, the BOT is projected to implement additional measures. | 4 v MARKET TALK Investment Strategy BOT’s THB Appreciation Control Measures Period Baht control Measures Ongoing Measure Reduce Capital Inflow Jul – Aug 2019 Curbing issuance of short-term bonds Low Severity Lowering cap on the outstanding balance of non-resident Jul 22, 2019 Low Severity accounts in THB Tightening requirement for non-resident holdings of Thai Jul 2019 Low Severity bonds Increase Capital Inflow Exempting on repatriation of export proceeds Low Severity Encouraging investment in foreign securities Low Severity Nov 3, 2019 Allowing free outward transfers Low Severity Allowing gold trading through foreign currencies Low Severity Allowed local investors to freely deposit funds in foreign Low Severity currency deposit (FCD) accounts. Addition to Easing regulation on securities investment for individual Nov 22, 2020 Low Severity measures on and institutional investors. Nov 6, 2019 Requiring registration for bond trading. Low Severity Measures under Review Using international reserve for THB intervention Low Severity (manipulation) Controlling transaction related to exchange rates of Medium Severity international financial institutions Collecting tax from foreign investment: 1) tax on interest income from bonds and 2) tax on interest income from High Severity security trading (capital gain) and principal Source: ASPS Research Yesterday, the BOT made a statement on the following important issues: .
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