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Poli Cal Inheritance and Hybrid Democracy

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Poli Cal Inheritance and Hybrid Democracy Polical Inheritance and Hybrid Democracy: Family Poli%cs and Democracy in Thailand The Shinawatra Family • Bunloet Shinawatra • Suraphan Shinawatra • Thaksin Shinawatra (PM) • Phayap Shinawatra • Yaowapha Shinawatra Wongsawat • Yingphan Shinawatra (PM) Bunloet's In-laws • Bunloet's wife: • Yindee Bunloet Na Chiangmai Ramingwong • Chainarong Na Chiangmai Na Chiangmai • Thawatwong Na Chiangmai • Kingkan Na Chiangmai Thaksin's Sister • Thaksin's Sister • Yaowapha Somchai Wongsawat (PM) Wongsawat • Chinicha Wongsawat Thaksin's cousins: General Uthai Shinawatra, Former Permanent Secretary, MoD General Chaisit Shinawatra, Former Army Commander Family PoliHcs: View from Advanced Democracies • Putnam, 1976, Family is a pre-modern recruitment style, and will disappear with modernizaon • Wasson on Families in the BriHsh parliament: Electoral reforms enfranchising the middle class led to the decline of family influence LaBand and Lentz, 1985 • Families have declined over Hme in the US congress • However, "occupaonal following" in poliHcs remains far higher than other professions • This can be explained through a supply and demand model • Does not ensure long term success, but provides an iniHal advantage Dal Bo, Dal Bo, and Snyder 2009 • Strong steady decline in families in congress, but following remains far higher than other professions • Following is higher among female legislators (31.2%) than male legislators (8.4%) • Followers can directly access high office (senate), so they achieve ranks at younger ages • Note that a shid in the socio-economic background of elected representaves is lasHng and difficult to reverse, as they perpetuate themselves. Van Liefferinge and Steyvers (2009) • Passion at early ages is the primary reason for following • Can no longer be considered vesHgial. PoliHcal inheritance has taken on modern and postmodern aspects Family PoliHcs: Democrazing Naons • Hybrid democracy (Diamond 2002) • Closed games (Behrend 2011) • Parochializing power, naonalizing influence (Gibson 2011) • Bossism (McCoy ) • Beherend: economic development will break open these closed games • No exisHng literature on poliHcal inheritance or occupaonal following in the literature on democrazing naons. Seeking the Extremes: Case Study 1 • Sonthaya Khunpluem (6 Hme MP 1992, cabinet minister) • Ihiphon Khunpluem (2 Hme MP 2001, mayor of Phahaya ) • Withaya Khunpluem (5 Hme MP 1992) • Sukumon Khunpluem (wife of Sonthaya, first Kamnan Poh, mayor, convicted of corruption, hiring a killing, fled Thailand Hme MP, minister) • 2001 held 3 seats Seeking the Extremes: Case Study 2 • Suphatra Masdit (7 Hme MP 1979, minister, took father's seat) • Surachet Masdit (7 Hme MP 1992, elected with Suphatra one Hme 1995) Surin Masdit, 3 time MP 1969 The Data • 2750 members of the Thai parliament since 1932 • Surnames in Thailand are about 1 century old (by royal decree in 1909), except royally bestowed surnames, so that a surname based analysis is feasible • Preliminary Findings. AddiHonal coding needed for some of the hypotheses. Breadth vs. Depth • 873 members in 355 families • Depth 221 • Depth (1 overlap) 55 • Depth (2 overlap) 20 • Breadth 59 • Only about 20 families held mulHple seats in a single province/ region for an extended period. Large Families Breadth vs. Depth • 873 members in 355 families • Depth 221 • Depth (1 overlap) 55 • Depth (2 overlap) 20 • Breadth 59 • Only about 20 families held mulHple seats in a single province/ region for an extended period. • A rough measure, but a good indicaon that poliHcal inheritance is important, and worth studying in developing naons with sporadic periods of democrazaon. Hypothesis 1: Family support leads to elecHon at a younger age N means SD df F p Eta square Families 856 41.61 9.77 1, 2689 33.12 sig .012 Not families 1835 43.91 9.60 Followers 502 41.79 10.28 1, 2689 12.67 sig .005 Not followers 2189 43.50 9.55 Significance set at .01 Hypothesis 2: Family support leads to more women gaining elecHon Families Women 12.6 Non Families Women 4.26 Followers Women 22.1 Non Followers Women 4.53 B Wald df Ngkke R2 Sig O.R. Families 1.175 58.862 1 .054 sig 3.24 Followers 1.583 104.874 1 .088 sig 4.87 Sig reported at .01 level H. 3 Families will be more successful in gaining elecHon But, as per Laband and Lentz H. 4 Followers will not be more successful over the long term N means SD df F p Eta square Families 873 3.08 2.53 1, 2748 121.37 Sig .042 Non Families 1877 2.16 1.77 Followers 514 2.42 1.86 1, 2748 .12 ns --- Non Followers 2236 2.46 2.13 H 5. Higher levels of economic development lead to fewer families • Families Average Gross Provincial Product 149,543 • Non Families Average Gross Provincial Product 147,284 GPP/Families B S.E. Wald df Sig Exp(B) .000 .000 .115 1 .735 1.000 H. 6 PoliHcal culture affects the rao of families in parliament East Bangkok Center South North Northeast Note possible interacHon with level of development Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) Step 1a ProvincialGDP .000 .000 .286 1 .593 1.000 Region 13.802 6 .032 Region(1) -.242 .213 1.280 1 .258 .785 Region(2) .085 .206 .170 1 .680 1.089 Region(3) -.300 .235 1.628 1 .202 .741 Region(4) .169 .228 .550 1 .459 1.184 Region(5) -.059 .224 .069 1 .792 .943 Region(6) -.177 .265 .442 1 .506 .838 Constant -.751 .224 11.253 1 .001 .472 a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: ProvincialGDP , Region. ! Perhaps significant at the lower level, but only for region in general, not for any particular region, and given the robustness of other results, this finding is questionable. H. 7 Due to modernizaon, families will decline over me H. 7 Due to modernizaon, families will decline over me Alternave Explanaons Banned PoliHcians • 250 banned aer 2007 • 166 held seats in parliament when banned • 100 were from poliHcal families • 54 retained a member in a later parliament Thailand Health Profile 2005-2007: Alternave Explanaons: Party Switching N means SD df F p Eta square Families 873 1.50 1.2 1, 2748 55.54 Sig .020 Not Families 1877 1.17 1.00 Tentave conclusions • Closed games appear to be much less common than poliHcal following • While closed games do deserve aenHon because of their importance, we also need to look more carefully at poliHcal inheritance, in all countries. Tentave conclusions • Family does help gain elecHon for both young and female candidates, who may be otherwise disadvantaged in the poliHcal system (gate-keeping, stereotypes) Tentave conclusions • Patriarchs (and a few matriarchs) have a different character than followers, who do not succeed at the same rate • They should be singled out for more aenHon than previously. How do they emerge? Tentave conclusions • Modernizaon does not appear to correlate with a decline in the number of families in any clear way, despite evidence in other studies of a long term decline. • Indirectly, as modernizaon leads to smaller families, it appears to have an impact. (Pending further analysis.) Tentave conclusions • Wasson's observation that electoral systems have an impact deserves more attention. Family can be an alternative to party. Stronger parties may weaken families , and vice versa. • This potential relationship between families and parties fits well with the arguments of Van Liefferinge and Steyvers who argue that family politics is becoming modern and even postmodern, with changes in the nature of the party and the media. Further, as Dal Bo, Dal Bo, and Snyder and our data note, such shifts can be long lasting due to political following. .
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