Poli cal Inheritance and Hybrid Democracy: Family Poli cs and Democracy in Thailand The Shinawatra Family
• Bunloet Shinawatra • Suraphan Shinawatra • Thaksin Shinawatra (PM) • Phayap Shinawatra • Yaowapha Shinawatra Wongsawat • Yingphan Shinawatra (PM)
Bunloet's In-laws
• Bunloet's wife: • Yindee Bunloet Na Chiangmai Ramingwong • Chainarong Na Chiangmai Na Chiangmai • Thawatwong Na Chiangmai • Kingkan Na Chiangmai
Thaksin's Sister
• Thaksin's Sister • Yaowapha Somchai Wongsawat (PM) Wongsawat • Chinicha Wongsawat
Thaksin's cousins:
General Uthai Shinawatra, Former Permanent Secretary, MoD General Chaisit Shinawatra, Former Army Commander Family Poli cs: View from Advanced Democracies • Putnam, 1976, Family is a pre-modern recruitment style, and will disappear with moderniza on • Wasson on Families in the Bri sh parliament: Electoral reforms enfranchising the middle class led to the decline of family influence LaBand and Lentz, 1985 • Families have declined over me in the US congress • However, "occupa onal following" in poli cs remains far higher than other professions • This can be explained through a supply and demand model • Does not ensure long term success, but provides an ini al advantage Dal Bo, Dal Bo, and Snyder 2009 • Strong steady decline in families in congress, but following remains far higher than other professions • Following is higher among female legislators (31.2%) than male legislators (8.4%) • Followers can directly access high office (senate), so they achieve ranks at younger ages • Note that a shi in the socio-economic background of elected representa ves is las ng and difficult to reverse, as they perpetuate themselves. Van Liefferinge and Steyvers (2009) • Passion at early ages is the primary reason for following • Can no longer be considered ves gial. Poli cal inheritance has taken on modern and postmodern aspects Family Poli cs: Democra zing Na ons • Hybrid democracy (Diamond 2002) • Closed games (Behrend 2011) • Parochializing power, na onalizing influence (Gibson 2011) • Bossism (McCoy ) • Beherend: economic development will break open these closed games • No exis ng literature on poli cal inheritance or occupa onal following in the literature on democra zing na ons. Seeking the Extremes: Case Study 1 • Sonthaya Khunpluem (6 me MP 1992, cabinet minister) • I hiphon Khunpluem (2 me MP 2001, mayor of Pha haya ) • Withaya Khunpluem (5 me MP 1992) • Sukumon Khunpluem (wife of Sonthaya, first Kamnan Poh, mayor, convicted of corruption, hiring a killing, fled Thailand me MP, minister) • 2001 held 3 seats
Seeking the Extremes: Case Study 2
• Suphatra Masdit (7 me MP 1979, minister, took father's seat) • Surachet Masdit (7 me MP 1992, elected with Suphatra one me 1995)
Surin Masdit, 3 time MP 1969 The Data
• 2750 members of the Thai parliament since 1932 • Surnames in Thailand are about 1 century old (by royal decree in 1909), except royally bestowed surnames, so that a surname based analysis is feasible
• Preliminary Findings. Addi onal coding needed for some of the hypotheses. Breadth vs. Depth • 873 members in 355 families • Depth 221 • Depth (1 overlap) 55 • Depth (2 overlap) 20 • Breadth 59
• Only about 20 families held mul ple seats in a single province/ region for an extended period. Large Families Breadth vs. Depth • 873 members in 355 families • Depth 221 • Depth (1 overlap) 55 • Depth (2 overlap) 20 • Breadth 59 • Only about 20 families held mul ple seats in a single province/ region for an extended period. • A rough measure, but a good indica on that poli cal inheritance is important, and worth studying in developing na ons with sporadic periods of democra za on. Hypothesis 1: Family support leads to elec on at a younger age
N means SD df F p Eta square Families 856 41.61 9.77 1, 2689 33.12 sig .012 Not families 1835 43.91 9.60 Followers 502 41.79 10.28 1, 2689 12.67 sig .005 Not followers 2189 43.50 9.55 Significance set at .01 Hypothesis 2: Family support leads to more women gaining elec on
Families Women 12.6 Non Families Women 4.26 Followers Women 22.1 Non Followers Women 4.53
B Wald df Ngkke R2 Sig O.R. Families 1.175 58.862 1 .054 sig 3.24 Followers 1.583 104.874 1 .088 sig 4.87 Sig reported at .01 level H. 3 Families will be more successful in gaining elec on But, as per Laband and Lentz H. 4 Followers will not be more successful over the long term
N means SD df F p Eta square Families 873 3.08 2.53 1, 2748 121.37 Sig .042 Non Families 1877 2.16 1.77 Followers 514 2.42 1.86 1, 2748 .12 ns --- Non Followers 2236 2.46 2.13 H 5. Higher levels of economic development lead to fewer families • Families Average Gross Provincial Product 149,543 • Non Families Average Gross Provincial Product 147,284
GPP/Families B S.E. Wald df Sig Exp(B) .000 .000 .115 1 .735 1.000 H. 6 Poli cal culture affects the ra o of families in parliament East Bangkok Center South North Northeast Note possible interac on with level of development Variables in the Equation
B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B)
Step 1a ProvincialGDP .000 .000 .286 1 .593 1.000 Region 13.802 6 .032
Region(1) -.242 .213 1.280 1 .258 .785
Region(2) .085 .206 .170 1 .680 1.089
Region(3) -.300 .235 1.628 1 .202 .741
Region(4) .169 .228 .550 1 .459 1.184
Region(5) -.059 .224 .069 1 .792 .943
Region(6) -.177 .265 .442 1 .506 .838
Constant -.751 .224 11.253 1 .001 .472
a. Variable(s) entered on step 1: ProvincialGDP , Region.
! Perhaps significant at the lower level, but only for region in general, not for any particular region, and given the robustness of other results, this finding is questionable. H. 7 Due to moderniza on, families will decline over me
H. 7 Due to moderniza on, families will decline over me Alterna ve Explana ons Banned Poli cians
• 250 banned a er 2007 • 166 held seats in parliament when banned • 100 were from poli cal families • 54 retained a member in a later parliament Thailand Health Profile 2005-2007: Alterna ve Explana ons: Party Switching
N means SD df F p Eta square Families 873 1.50 1.2 1, 2748 55.54 Sig .020 Not Families 1877 1.17 1.00 Tenta ve conclusions • Closed games appear to be much less common than poli cal following • While closed games do deserve a en on because of their importance, we also need to look more carefully at poli cal inheritance, in all countries. Tenta ve conclusions
• Family does help gain elec on for both young and female candidates, who may be otherwise disadvantaged in the poli cal system (gate-keeping, stereotypes) Tenta ve conclusions
• Patriarchs (and a few matriarchs) have a different character than followers, who do not succeed at the same rate • They should be singled out for more a en on than previously. How do they emerge? Tenta ve conclusions
• Moderniza on does not appear to correlate with a decline in the number of families in any clear way, despite evidence in other studies of a long term decline. • Indirectly, as moderniza on leads to smaller families, it appears to have an impact. (Pending further analysis.) Tenta ve conclusions • Wasson's observation that electoral systems have an impact deserves more attention. Family can be an alternative to party. Stronger parties may weaken families , and vice versa.
• This potential relationship between families and parties fits well with the arguments of Van Liefferinge and Steyvers who argue that family politics is becoming modern and even postmodern, with changes in the nature of the party and the media. Further, as Dal Bo, Dal Bo, and Snyder and our data note, such shifts can be long lasting due to political following.