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Divining the Future: Making Sense of Ecological Uncertainty in Turkana, Northern Kenya land Article Divining the Future: Making Sense of Ecological Uncertainty in Turkana, Northern Kenya Samuel F. Derbyshire 1,* , Joseph Ekidor Nami 2, Gregory Akall 3 and Lucas Lowasa 2 1 School of Anthropology and Museum Ethnography, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 2JD, UK 2 Independent Researchers, Nairobi P.O. Box 30710, Kenya; [email protected] (J.E.N.); [email protected] (L.L.) 3 Drylands Learning and Capacity Building Initiative (DLCI), Nairobi 00100, Kenya; [email protected] * Correspondence: [email protected] Abstract: This article draws on long-term ethnographic fieldwork to examine some recent livelihood transformations that have taken place in the Turkana region of northern Kenya. In doing so, it discusses some of the ways in which uncertainty and variability have been managed in Turkana to date and considers what this means in relation to a future that promises continued radical economic and ecological change. Discussing a selection of examples, we argue that understandings of contemporary transformative processes are enhanced through attention to the ways in which various forms of knowledge have been constituted and implemented over the long term. We suggest that ongoing transformations within livelihood practices, inter-livelihood relationships and corresponding patterns of mobility might best be understood as manifestations of a long-standing capacity for successfully managing the very uncertainty that characterises daily life. Citation: Derbyshire, S.F.; Nami, J.E.; Keywords: Turkana; pastoralism; uncertainty; unpredictability; epistemology; livelihoods; resilience; Akall, G.; Lowasa, L. Divining the social change; ecological change Future: Making Sense of Ecological Uncertainty in Turkana, Northern Kenya. Land 2021, 10, 885. https:// doi.org/10.3390/land10090885 1. Introduction This article explores some of the ways in which pastoralist communities in the Turkana Academic Editors: region of northern Kenya have negotiated environmental unpredictability over recent Nik Petek-Sargeant, Federica Sulas decades. Turkana is well known for being hot, arid and ecologically unstable, and the and Paul Lane broader region has seen recurring, harsh droughts throughout the last century and be- yond [1–5]. Correspondingly, Turkana pastoralism has been characterised as highly dy- Received: 16 May 2021 Accepted: 18 August 2021 namic and adaptive, comprising intense mobility and livelihood flexibility in line with a Published: 24 August 2021 radically transforming array of daily resources and pressures. The Turkana region, which is roughly 68,000 km2, comprises low-lying arid and semi-arid plains, broken sporadically Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral by greener hill ranges (see Figure1). Precipitation is both low and extremely variable, with regard to jurisdictional claims in but after substantial periods of rainfall, various annual grasses emerge that are crucial published maps and institutional affil- for those maintaining cattle. Otherwise, livestock browse mixed shrubs, acacia trees and, iations. increasingly, the invasive species Prosopis juliflora, introduced to mitigate desertification by the World Bank in the early 1980s [6,7]. More varied woodlands are found on the banks of major rivers; these are often used as a refuge for small mixed herds of goats and sheep during dry months. During times of extreme scarcity, those who have incurred catastrophic livestock losses are known to seek temporary respite in non-livestock-oriented Copyright: © 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. subsistence procurement strategies, including fishing and cultivation. Whilst longstanding, This article is an open access article and indisputably critical to the workings of the regional livestock-oriented economy, these distributed under the terms and historically subsidiary livelihoods have, over the past few decades, come to be envisaged conditions of the Creative Commons by many as worthy pursuits in their own rights [8]. Correspondingly, the region has seen a Attribution (CC BY) license (https:// substantial uptick in secondary and further education and associated growth in numbers creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ of small businesses, professionals and those engaged in wage labour. 4.0/). Land 2021, 10, 885. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10090885 https://www.mdpi.com/journal/land Land 2021, 10, 885 2 of 23 Land 2021, 10, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 23 FigureFigure 1. 1.Topographic Topographic map map of of northern northern Kenya Kenya showing showing the the rough rough distribution distribution ofof forestforest andand rangeland.rangeland. TurkanaTurkana CountyCounty is is located in the area to the west of Lake Turkana. located in the area to the west of Lake Turkana. 2. PastoralismIn recent years,and Uncertainty many of thosein Northern pursuing Kenya pastoralist livelihoods in Turkana claim to haveIn June experienced 2020, while a significant the globe breakdowngrappled with in previousthe radical rainfall reshaping patterns of everyday and general life seasonality.that the coronavirus In most cases,had come this to is demand, described certain as comprising communities a far in less Turkana pronounced were witn divisioness- betweening the rise wet of seasons a very (differentakiporo) andcelestial dry seasonsforce. It (wasakamu the). tail This end disintegration of an unusually has hadabundant a direct impactand unusually on the ‘boom long rainy and bustseason. cycle’ Herds characteristic of livestock of were the regional numerous, economy their coats (and shining. livestock- basedAs the economies rains trailed more off generally) and the prospect [4] (p. 37), of scarcity which has once historically more emerge involvedd, the rapid instructions livestock reproductionof a revered emuron during (diviner/seer, times of abundance plural ngimurok (and by extension,) began to copiousproliferate. quantities He told of his milk) listen- and theers preparationthat if they andwanted storage the rain of various to return, foods they for would consumption need to during milk their dry monthscamels with when freshwooden milk elepit is unavailable. containers again Experiences (rather than of similarthe plastic ecological jugs and transformations other vessels that have are beenbe- documentedcoming increasingly across multiple common). pastoralist Moreover, contexts when notdoing only so, in women northern would Kenya need i.e., to [9 –return12] but alsoonce sub-Saharan more to wearing Africa the more abwo broadly, and the where adwel— theanimal effects hide of climateaprons changeonce ubiquitous are impacting but livestock-orientednow far less frequently livelihoods worn. in a variety of complex ways [13–17]. In Turkana, as in many otherThe contexts, individual these environmentaldispensing this changesadvice, we have came unravelled to learn alongsidethrough numerous transformations friends, on aacquaintances comparably radicaland interviewees, scale within was local claiming infrastructures, to have been an possessed associated by trend a historical of economic fig- growthure well and known diversification throughout and southern substantial Turkana, population a man named increase Lokorijem. [18]. Over a hundred yearsTaking ago, Lokorijem all of this was into a account, key counsellor questions to arisethe war as toleader what Ebei, strategies who led and Turkana’s responses havefighting been force implemented in their protracted over the resistance recent past to incolonial the pursuit subjugation of prosperity [5, 21–23 and]. He success, was, like and howother these ngimurok articulate, able orto clashsee beyond with thethe Turkanabounds pastoralof the average economy’s human historical by means dynamics. of his Wedreams. address He thesecould questionscommunicate by with setting God, out bringing ideas and down cases terrible developed curses on over his the enemies course ofand long-term wonderous interdisciplinary blessings—such research as rain— spanningon his friends roughly and eight followers. years. One Our evening, discussion as is oriented around a series of key examples, drawn from interviews, group discussion sessions and participant observation undertaken in multiple locations across southern Land 2021, 10, 885 3 of 23 Turkana. Understanding how people have coped with radical economic and ecological transformation is, of course, important in its own right. However, our ambition in doing so is also to consider two more general interrelated themes: the future of Turkana pastoralism amidst the turbulence of the 21st century and the constitution of pastoralist knowledge and expertise in the region over long-term patterns of change. In exploring these two themes, we aim to contribute to more general discussions of the dynamics of pastoral economies and institutions amidst uncertain ecological and environmental conditions. The examples we discuss in this article constitute a historically situated case study that in many ways echoes recent arguments for understanding uncer- tainty as an attribute that is productively engaged with by pastoralist societies, and that should be worked with (not against) by the development sector broadly conceptualised i.e., [19,20]. Considering the question of economic and ecological unpredictability over the course of long-term change, we also seek to contribute to an already rich scholarship of institutional and livelihood change in northern Kenya’s pastoralist societies, which we discuss in the following section. Drawing on evidence collected in the field, we argue
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