UNIVERSITY of CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO Designing Certainty The
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UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA SAN DIEGO Designing Certainty The Rise of Algorithmic Computing in an Age of Anxiety 1920-1970 A dissertation submitted in partial satisfaction of the Requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy in History (Science Studies) by Theodora Dryer Committee in charge: Professor Cathy Gere, Chair Professor Tal Golan Professor Mark Hendrickson Professor Lilly Irani Professor Martha Lampland Professor Charlie Thorpe 2019 Copyright Theodora Dryer, 2019 All rights reserved. The Dissertation of Theodora Dryer is approved, and it is acceptable in quality and form for publication on microfilm and electronically: __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ __________________________________________________________________ Chair University of California San Diego 2019 iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Signature Page……………………………………………………………………………………. iii Table of Contents……………......………………………………………………...……………… iv List of Figures……………………………………………………………………………………...v Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………………………….vii Vita…………………………………………………………………………………………....…xiv Abstract of the Dissertation………………………………………………………………….….xvi Chapter 0: Introduction Mapping Uncertainty Between Crisis and Confidence………….………………………………..…1 Chapter 1: Crisis Crisis as Prologue: The New Agrarian Calculus and Anxious Quanta…………..................................33 Chapter 2: Confidence 1929: The Origins of Confidence Computing in Warsaw, Poland…………………………………70 Chapter 3: Control Seeds of Control: Sugar Beets, Control Logics, and New Deal Data Politics, 1920-1940…………108 Chapter 4: (Un)certainty Machine Over Mind: (Un)certainty Work in India's Rurual Reconstruction Programs and as U.S. Military Method……147 Chapter 5: Climate Computing Cloud Seeds: A Story of Anthropogenic Climate Change, 1940-1970………………..188 Chapter 6: Conclusion Automating (Un)certainty: Digital Cloud Seeds and Confidence Algorithms………………...…...247 Bibliography……………………………………………………………………………………..269 iv LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: “Confidence Intervals,” University College London Special Collections. ................................ 1 Figure 2: UCL, “Confidence Intervals,” https://tinyurl.com/y3utonfd (accessed May 20, 2015). ...... 4 Figure 3: Interval Estimations, Classroom Experiment, 1971. .................................................................. 6 Figure 4: “Evidence of widespread effect of cloud seeding at two Arizona experiments,” 1971........ 22 Figure 5: Duane Michals, “Madame Schrödinger’s Cat,” 1998, From the series Quantum. .................. 33 Figure 6: “Anthropometric Laboratory,” Frances Galton Papers, Digital Special Collections, UCL. 44 Figure 7: “Poultry at Government Farm, Beltsville, Maryland,” 1920. ................................................ 48 Figure 8: “Agriculture and Landownership in Poland,” 1921. ................................................................. 70 Figure 9: Trans., “Sugar Beet Map of Poland,” Statisticia, 1933. .............................................................. 97 Figure 10: "The Accuracy of the "Dilution Method,” 1935. ................................................................... 102 Figure 11: “Confidence Interval for Dilution Experiment,” 1936. ...................................................... 104 Figure 12: Jerzy Neyman’s Dedication to those Murdered by Gestapo, 1952 ..................................... 107 Figure 13: “White Improved Vilmorin Sugar Beet,” Farmers’ Bulletin 52, 1889. ................................... 108 Figure 14: “The Theoretical Beet-Sugar belt of the United States,” Farmers’ Bulletin 52, 1899 .......... 115 Figure 15: “The Michigan Sugar Beet Industry,” 1927. .......................................................................... 119 Figure 16: “Quality Control Charts,” Bell System Technical Journal, 1926. ............................................... 121 Figure 17: 160330 Telephone transmitter, Richard C. Winckel, Western Electric, 1926. ................... 126 Figure 18: “Quality Control Charts,” Bell System Technical Journal, 1926. ................................................ 128 Figure 19: “Composite Plot of Incendiary Sticks” in “Bomb Patterns” .............................................. 147 Figure 20: “Mathematical Machines,” Scientific American, 1949. ............................................................. 149 Figure 21: “An Illustration of the Use of Fiducial Limits,” Sankhyā, 1935. ......................................... 156 Figure 22: “Bengal Anthropometric Survey,” 1945. ............................................................................... 159 Figure 23: “Handling Field, Valparaiso Fla.,” 1935, soon to become Eglin Field Proving Ground. 163 v Figure 24: “Aerial Schematic of Amagasaki, Japan,” 1945.. .................................................................... 164 Figure 25: “Coordinates of the Clock and Instrument Signals on the Tape,” 1943. ........................... 170 Figure 26: “Bombsight View of The Leader in Aiming at: Battleships/Destroyers,” 1944. .............. 173 Figure 27: “Dial Board and Visual Adjustment Board of the Computer of Probabilities,” 1943. .... 175 Figure 28: “The Norden Bombsight,” 1943.. ............................................................................................ 177 Figure 29: "View of Apparatus as Set Up." 1945. ..................................................................................... 183 Figure 30: "How the Bombsight Solves Problems," 1943...................................................................... 185 Figure 31: “The Desert Laboratory,” 1911. .............................................................................................. 188 Figure 32: “Rain Making Firm Takes Mexico Jobs,” 1949. ..................................................................... 210 Figure 33: “Rain Making Pioneer Hints Weather Control,” 1950. ......................................................... 218 Figure 34: “A Detailed Study of Desert Rainfall,” 1933. ......................................................................... 225 Figure 35: RAIN—Water Resources Corres. 1952. ................................................................................ 228 Figure 36: Weather Control Newspaper Article, Undated. ..................................................................... 241 Figure 37: Eduardo Paolozzi, “Conditional Probability Machine,” 1970. ............................................. 247 Figure 38: “Re-Evaluation of the Arizona Cloud-Seeding Experiment,” 1971. ................................... 253 Figure 39: “Probabilistic Logics and the Synthesis of Reliable Organism from Unreliable Components,” 1956....................................................................................................................................... 258 Figure 40: "Algorithm 516: An Algorithm for Obtaining Confidence Intervals," ACM, 1977. ....... 262 vi ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS When I first drove to San Diego cross-country from Boston, Massachusetts to begin my PhD program, I did not anticipate the worlds that would be opened for me or the depths to which my life would change. Designing Certainty is the material product of this time: the individual and collective thought, the fieldwork and community-building, and the personal and intellectual transformations that occur when important questions are put forward and rigorously followed through. This is a PhD dissertation. It is not perfect and not yet what it will soon be in book form. However, this dissertation represents one of the most challenging and rewarding opportunities of my life and there are many people without whom this would not have been possible. In expressions like this, words are just not enough. But the word, ‘acknowledgement’ holds a number of meanings: recognition, appreciation, realization, gratitude, and awareness. I am utterly humbled by the contributions and support that brought this project to fruition. My first expression of gratitude is to my advisor, Cathy Gere. Designing Certainty would not exist without her support and intellectual engagement. She always saw the clarity through the fog, encouraged me to pursue the bold questions, and empowered me to be the scholar and person that I am. She worked with me in the many stages of this project from growing my nascent thoughts, through conceptualizing the whole project, and the many layers of editing. Her work is present in this dissertation and her intellectual and political influence will be with me for the rest of my life. I also hold immense gratitude for Tal Golan, who is one of the earliest advocates of this project. Tal taught me the joy and challenges of historical work and held unwavering support of me and my ideas throughout my PhD. He writes and teaches with a balance of humor and rigor that I emulate in my own scholarship. The pages of this dissertation are likewise shaped by the personal support and intellectual influences of an extraordinary dissertation committee. I was so fortunate to work with Martha vii Lampland with whom I share so many questions and interests about quantitative life. I am grateful for her steadfast encouragement of my ideas and of me as a whole person throughout the PhD, and I am indebted to her foundational scholarship. I am also grateful