THE YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY

CAPE TOWN IN THE SHADOW OF ZUMANOMICS 2017 – 2027 JUSTICE MALALA THE CAPE IS SO GORGEOUS…CAN’T WE GO IT ALONE?

DON’T MAKE ME LAUGH…

“IF IT’S A SECRET BALLOT I THINK YOU ARE TOAST…” “JUST FOR THE WEEKEND, NE?”

WHAT WILL THE IMPACT ON CT AND WC BE? “CABINET RESHUFFLE DONE, BOYS. WHAT SHOULD WE DO ABOUT THE CAPE?” KEY DRIVERS OF SA POLITICS TODAY The “Premier League” ANC Youth League Trevor Manuel ANC WL It’s Our Law, Paul Mashatile Markets, Kgalema Motlanthe Turn To Matthews Phosa Eat Certainty

The Gwede Mantashe Swingers SACP Limpopo Province Cosatu Parts of KZN province

8.9m|36.3%

TRENDS FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS 1. THE TIMES THEY ARE A-CHANGING

2. ECONOMIC NATIONALISM ON THE RISE

“THE STATE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE ECONOMY TO DRIVE THAT TRANSFORMATION - IN THIS REGARD, GOVERNMENT WILL UTILISE TO THE MAXIMUM, THE STRATEGIC LEVERS THAT ARE AVAILABLE TO THE STATE.”

- PRES. JACOB ZUMA (SONA, 09 FEB 2017) • “WE NEED TO TRANSFORM IN ORDER TO GROW, WE NEED TO GROW IN ORDER TO TRANSFORM. WITHOUT TRANSFORMATION, GROWTH WILL REINFORCE INEQUALITY; WITHOUT GROWTH, TRANSFORMATION WILL BE DISTORTED BY PATRONAGE.” - PRAVIN GORDHAN (22 FEB 2017) 2. RISE OF THE POPULIST MACHINE

“TODAY WE ARE STARTING A NEW CHAPTER OF RADICAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION … THE STATE WILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE ECONOMY TO DRIVE THAT TRANSFORMATION.”

- PRES. JACOB ZUMA (SONA, 09 FEB 2017) WHAT’S THAT AGAIN?

“I ANNOUNCED ON SATURDAY THAT WE HAVE ENTERED THE SECOND PHASE OF OUR TRANSITION TO A NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC SOCIETY. I ALSO SAID THIS WOULD BE A RADICAL PHASE OF SOCIO- ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION.”

• PRESIDENT JACOB ZUMA, 25 MAY 2014 SAY WHAT?

“WE HAVE DECLARED 2011 A YEAR OF JOB CREATION THROUGH MEANINGFUL ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION AND INCLUSIVE GROWTH.”

- PRESIDENT JACOB ZUMA, 10 FEB 2011

3. THE LAND

• “[IN ORDER] TO ACHIEVE ALL THE GOALS MENTIONED IN THE STATE OF THE NATION ADDRESS GOVERNMENT IS BUSY AMENDING ALL THE LAWS AND POLICIES TO ENABLE FASTER LAND REFORM, INCLUDING LAND EXPROPRIATION WITHOUT COMPENSATION AS PROVIDED FOR IN THE CONSTITUTION.”

• JACOB ZUMA, 24 FEBRUARY 2016 • “THERE’S NOTHING WRONG WITH CHANGING THE CONSTITUTION WHERE IT’S NOT HELPING YOU - WHERE WE NEED TO CHANGE IT, WE WILL CHANGE IT.” • , MINISTER OF SMALL ENTERPRISES (03 MAY 2016) • “THE PARTY’S OBJECTION TO THIS WEEK’S MOTION IN PARLIAMENT, BROUGHT BY THE EFF, LEFT MANY OF US ANC MEMBERS CONFUSED AND HURT ... WE FELT THAT BY REJECTING THIS MOTION TO AMEND THE CONSTITUTION’S PROPERTY CLAUSE, THE PARTY HAD SQUANDERED AN OPPORTUNITY.”

• , MINISTER OF COMMUNICATIONS “ANC NEEDS TO UNITE WITH OTHER BLACK PARTIES IN PURSUIT OF A TWO-THIRDS MAJORITY THAT WOULD ENABLE IT TO CHANGE THE CONSTITUTION TO ALLOW FOR LAND EXPROPRIATION WITHOUT COMPENSATION.”

• JACOB ZUMA, 03 MARCH 2017 •"THE FOLLOWING QUESTIONS SHOULD BE POSED TO SOUTH AFRICANS: ‘DO YOU SUPPORT EXPROPRIATION WITHOUT COMPENSATION? AND SHOULD THE CONSTITUTION BE AMENDED?’” • MDUMISENI NTULI, 05 MARCH 2017 (CITY PRESS) CONSIDERATIONS

• ANC UNDER PRESSURE FROM DA AND EFF FOLLOWING AUGUST 3 ELECTIONS. • ZUMA NOW BECOMING A LAME DUCK – NEEDS A CAUSE. • NEW LEADERSHIP WILL REFLECT THE DIVISIONS OF THE CURRENT ANC NATIONAL EXECUTIVE? • STALEMATE? PARALYSIS? • HOWEVER, THIS IS A CAMPAIGN THAT’S GAINING TRACTION. NO COUNTER-ARGUMENTS MAKING THEMSELVES HEARD. LOOMING LAND LEGISLATION

• RESTITUTION OF LAND RIGHTS AMENDMENT ACT • SETS A NEW DEADLINE FOR LAND CLAIMS TO DECEMBER 31, 2018. • THE PREVIOUS DEADLINE WAS DECEMBER 31, 1998. • 167 000 NEW CLAIMS LODGED BY JULY 2016. • 397 000 TOTAL NEW CLAIMS EXPECTED. • CONSTITUTIONAL COURT HAS REFERRED IT BACK TO PARLIAMENT.

LAND LEGISLATION

• PROMOTION AND PROTECTION OF INVESTMENT BILL OF 2013. • EXPROPRIATION BILL OF 2013. • FINAL POLICY PROPOSALS ON ‘STRENGTHENING THE RELATIVE RIGHTS OF THE PEOPLE WORKING THE LAND’ (50-50 POLICY). MORE LAND LEGISLATION

• ELECTRONIC DEEDS REGISTRATION BILL • REGULATION OF LAND HOLDINGS BILL • EXTENSION OF SECURITY OF TENURE AMENDMENT BILL • COMMUNAL LAND TENURE BILL • COMMUNAL PROPERTY ASSOCIATIONS AMENDMENT BILL 4. THE INSTITUTIONS

5. CORRUPTION

LEADERSHIP 6. LEADERSHIP

6. ZUMA ABOUT TO FALL? “YOU RESIGNED FOR LOSING AN ELECTION? I WOULD NEVER!” ANC NEC: 80 MEMBERS

HOLDERS OF PUBLIC OFFICE DEPENDENT ON ZUMA: 59 (73%)

IMPEACH? MOTION OF NO CONFIDENCE?

“IF IT’S A SECRET BALLOT I THINK YOU ARE TOAST…” SO WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN FOR CAPE TOWN?

TRENDS FOR CT AND THE WESTERN CAPE DEMISE OF THE ANC AND RISE OF THE DA

2006 2011 2016

DA 41.85% 60.92% 66.61%

ANC 37.91% 32.80% 24.36% WHY ANC LOST AND WILL DECLINE FURTHER

• DISUNITY AND FACTIONALISM • DECLINING MEMBERSHIP AND ACTIVISM • LOCAL INTRIGUES AND SCANDALS • A RESURGENT DA AND VISIBLE EFF MEANWHILE, THE DAY USES CT AND WC AS MODEL FOR NATIONAL POWER…. INEQUALITY AND ACTIVISM INEQUALITY AND ACTIVISM SOCIAL JUSTICE ACTIVISM TARGETS PROPERTY RACE AND THE CAPE PUNISHMENT? MOVE PARLY? THE NEXT FIVE YEARS…DIFFERENT PATHS 2021|2024 CT LEARNINGS FOR SA 1. BUSINESS, LABOUR AND GOVERNMENT PULLING TOGETHER

2. STRONG, INDEPENDENT INSTITUTIONS

3. STRENGTHENING MULTI-PARTY DEMOCRACY “EISH, THAT DIDN’T GO TOO WELL…” THE THREE MILLION WHO SAT AT HOME, CROSS 1. WILL THEY RETURN TO THE ANC?

2. WILL THE ANC’S DOWNWARD SLIDE CONTINUE?

3. DOES THE ANC HAVE THE ABILITY TO SELF- CORRECT?

THE JACKSON MTHEMBU SCENARIOS “THE ANC IS LOSING SUPPORT AT 54%. UNLESS THE PARTY STARTS DOING THINGS DIFFERENTLY, WE WILL NOT BE IN POWER IN 2019.”

– JACKSON MTHEMBU (23/10/2016)

SCENARIO 1: THE ROAD TO RUIN • FAILURE OF LEADERS ACROSS ALL SECTORS TO DEAL WITH OUR CRITICAL CHALLENGES. • POLITICAL FACTIONALISM. • WEAK, UNACCOUNTABLE LEADERSHIP. • WEAK CAPACITY IN GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENTS. • TIGHTENING ECONOMIC CONSTRAINTS. • CIVIL SOCIETY INCREASINGLY DISENGAGES AS PUBLIC TRUST IN PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS DIMINISHES. • THE STATE IS INCREASINGLY BYPASSED BY CITIZENS, RESULTING IN UNACCOUNTABLE GROUPINGS ASSUMING POWER OVER PARTS OF SOCIETY. • THE GAP BETWEEN THE LEADERS AND THE LED WIDENS. • PROTEST AND UNREST. • GOVERNMENT REACTS BRUTALLY. DECAY SETS IN. SCENARIO 2:

COME TOGETHER, AS ONE

• ACTIVE CITIZEN ENGAGEMENT. • A GOVERNMENT THAT IS EFFECTIVE AND THAT LISTENS. • IT IS DEPENDENT ON THE WILL AND ABILITY OF CITIZENS TO ORGANISE THEMSELVES AND TO ENGAGE THE AUTHORITIES, AND ON THE QUALITY OF POLITICAL LEADERSHIP AND ITS WILLINGNESS TO ENGAGE CITIZENS. • A COMMON NATIONAL VISION THAT CUTS ACROSS ECONOMIC SELF- INTEREST IN THE SHORT-TERM. • THIS IS NOT AN EASY SCENARIO. ITS PATH IS UNEVEN - THERE IS ROBUST CONTESTATION OVER MANY ISSUES AND IT REQUIRES STRONG LEADERSHIP FROM ALL SECTORS, ESPECIALLY FROM CITIZENS. SCENARIO 3: MUDDLE ALONG, WITH A PATCH OF DICTATORSHIP • STATE ASSUMES THE ROLE OF LEADER AND MANAGER. • STATE PLANNING AND CO-ORDINATION ARE SEEN AS CENTRAL MECHANISMS FOR ACCELERATING DEVELOPMENT AND DELIVERY TO CITIZENS, ESPECIALLY POOR, UNEMPLOYED AND VULNERABLE PEOPLE. • THE RULING PARTY ARGUES THAT STRONG STATE INTERVENTION IN THE ECONOMY IS IN ACCORDANCE WITH GLOBAL TRENDS. • THE ELECTORATE, CONCERNED ABOUT THE IMPACTS OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS, GIVES THE RULING PARTY A POWERFUL MANDATE. • STRONG STATE INTERVENTION CROWDS OUT PRIVATE INITIATIVE BY BUSINESS AND CIVIL SOCIETY. • THE COUNTRY ACCUMULATES UNSUSTAINABLE DEBT. • STATE BECOMES INCREASINGLY AUTHORITARIAN.

FLUX UNCERTAINTY GROWTH DISRUPTION SEATBELT UNPREDICTABILITY ANGER HISTORY INTERREGNUM HOPE CHUCK NORRIS MANDELA PROSPERITY

SOUTH AFRICA, SELF- DOUBT AND RESILIENCE

ELECTION 1994

EXTREMES

SA: COUNTRY OF EXTREMES