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London Elections 2016 Richard Keen BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP-7598, 26 April 2016 By Elise Uberoi Chris Watson London Elections 2016 Richard Keen Inside: 1. How London votes 2. Party summaries 3. Candidates 4. Mayoral election 5. London Assembly elections 6. Comparison of Mayoral and Assembly results 7. Turnout www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary Number CBP-7598, 26 April 2016 2 Contents Summary 3 1. How London votes 4 2. Party summaries 5 Conservative 5 Labour 7 Liberal Democrat 9 Green 11 UKIP 13 3. Candidates 15 4. Mayoral election 16 5. London Assembly elections 19 6. Comparison of Mayoral and Assembly results 23 7. Turnout 27 Appendix I Mayoral election – first preference votes by constituency 28 Appendix II Mayoral election – second preference votes by constituency 29 Appendix III Assembly constituency election – voting by constituency 30 Appendix IV Assembly London-wide election – voting by constituency 31 Editor Richard Keen Authors Elise Uberoi Richard Keen Chris Watson Cover page image copyright: City Hall, London, Spiral Staircase – 1, by Colin. Licensed by Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 2.0 Generic (CC BY 2.0) / image cropped 3 London Elections 2016 Summary Elections for the London Mayor and London Assembly were held on 5 May 2016. • The Labour Party candidate Sadiq Khan was elected as Mayor of London. Khan won 1,148,716 first preference votes (44.2%), compared to 909,755 for Conservative Party candidate Zac Goldsmith (35.0%). The total number of votes cast for Khan rose to 1,310,143 after second preference votes were redistributed, ahead of Goldsmith, with 994,614 votes. • Khan won the highest number and share of first preference votes since mayoral elections begun in 2000. • The Green Party’s candidate for Mayor, Sian Berry, came third with 150,673 first preference votes. Caroline Pidgeon of the Liberal Democrats finished fourth with 120,005 first preference votes. • Labour won 12 of the 25 seats in the London Assembly elections, the same number as in 2012, and remain the largest party in the Assembly. They won 43.5% of the Assembly constituency votes, a 1.3 percentage point increase on 2012. By comparison, Labour’s vote share in the mayoral election increased by 3.9 percentage point. • The Conservatives have 8 seats, one fewer than in 2012. The Green Party and UKIP both have 2 seats, and the Liberal Democrats lost one seat and now hold one Assembly seat. 2016 London Assembly elections: elected Members Constituency Members London-wide Members LAB Andrew Dismore Barnet & Camden LAB Tom Copley LAB Navin Shah Brent & Harrow LAB Nicky Gavron LAB Unmesh Desai City & East LAB Fiona Twycross LAB Onkar Sahota Ealing & Hillingdon CON Kemi Badenoch LAB Joanne McCartney Enfield & Haringey CON Shaun Bailey LAB Len Duvall Greenwich & Lewisham CON Andrew Boff LAB Florence Eshalomi Lambeth & Southwark Green Sian Berry LAB Leonie Cooper Merton & Wandsworth Green Caroline Russell LAB Jennette Arnold North East UKIP David Kurten CON Gareth Bacon Bexley & Bromley UKIP Peter Whittle CON Stephen O'Connell Croydon & Sutton LD Caroline Pidgeon CON Keith Prince Havering & Redbridge CON Tony Arbour South West CON Tony Devenish West Central • Turnout was 45.2% in the mayoral election, up from 37.4% in 2012. Turnout was 45.6% in the Assembly London-wide election, up from 37.5% in 2012. • Elections were also held on the same day for the Welsh Assembly, Scottish Parliament, and Northern Ireland Assembly, local councils and mayors in some English local authorities, and Police and Crime Commissioners in England and Wales. Number CBP-7598, 26 April 2016 4 1. How London votes The Greater London Authority was established in 2000. Elections for the Results Mayor of London and the 25 Members of the London Assembly take The results data place every four years. published in this paper Like other mayors in England, the Mayor of London is elected using the are as published by the Supplementary Vote system. Voters select a first and a second Greater London preference candidate. If no candidate receives more than half of first Authority (GLA). Results preference votes, the two candidates who received the most first by Assembly preference votes go through to a second round, where any second constituency, borough preference votes for the two remaining candidates are redistributed. and ward are available The candidate who receives the most votes at the end of this process is to download from the elected. GLA website, If a voter selects the same candidate as their first and second http://data.london.gov. preference, the second preference vote is not counted. Similarly, if a uk/. voter cast their first preference vote for one of the two candidates in the second round, then their second preference vote is not counted. There are fourteen London Assembly Members representing Assembly constituencies and eleven London-wide Members. They are elected using the Additional Member System (also used in elections for the Scottish Parliament and National Assembly for Wales). Two separate ballots are held. Constituency members are elected using the First Past the Post voting system. The other (London-wide) ballot is used to elect London-wide Members from a party list of candidates. Once the constituency Members are elected, the eleven London-wide seats are allocated between the parties based on their vote share in the London- wide ballot and taking into account how many seats they already have. The fourteen Assembly constituencies are built up from London boroughs: Assembly constituency London boroughs Assembly constituency London boroughs Barnet & Camden Barnet Greenwich & Lewisham Greenwich Camden Lewisham Bexley & Bromley Bexley Havering & Redbridge Havering Bromley Redbridge Brent & Harrow Brent Lambeth & Southwark Lambeth Harrow Southwark City & East City of London Merton & Wandsworth Merton Barking & Dagenham Wandsworth Newham Tower Hamlets Croydon & Sutton Croydon North East Hackney Sutton Islington Waltham Forest Ealing & Hillingdon Ealing South West Hounslow Hillingdon Kingston upon Thames Richmond upon Thames Enfield & Haringey Enfield West Central Hammersmith & Fulham Haringey Kensington & Chelsea Westminster Conservative • Boris Johnson was London Mayor between 2008 and 2016, but Conservative Party candidate Zac Goldsmith did not win the mayoral election in 2016. Goldsmith received his highest level of support in Bexley and Bromley, and his lowest in North East London. • The Conservative Party won five constituency seats in the London Assembly elections, one fewer than in 2012. As in 2012, the party won three London-wide seats. The party did not match its 2008 high of 11 Assembly seats. • Zac Goldsmith achieved a higher vote share in the first round of the mayoral elections than the Conservative Party did in the Assembly elections. Summary: votes and seats 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Mayoral election Votes (1st round) 464,434 542,423 1,043,761 971,931 909,755 % votes 27% 29% 43% 44% 35% Constituency seats 8 9 8 6 5 Votes 526,707 562,048 900,569 722,280 812,415 % votes 33% 31% 37% 33% 31% Seats 8 9 8 6 5 Constituency seats 33% 31% 37% 33% 31% London-wide seats 1 0 3 3 3 Votes 481,053 533,696 835,535 708,528 764,230 % votes 29% 28% 35% 32% 29% Seats 1 0 3 3 3 London-wide seats 29% 28% 35% 32% 29% Assembly total Seats 9 9 11 9 8 % seats 36% 36% 44% 36% 32% Note: Conservative candidate Boris Johnson was elected as Mayor of London in 2008 and 2012 Assembly share of the vote Assembly seats 45% 12 Constituency seats London-wide seats 10 30% 8 6 15% 4 Constituency seats 2 London-wide seats 0% 0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Mayoral first round share of the vote 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Bexley and Bromley West Central South West Havering and Croydon and Sutton Barnet and Camden Wandsworth Brent and Harrow Ealing and Hillingdon London Enfield and Haringey Greenwich and Lambethand City and East North East Merton and Southwark Redbridge Lweisham Labour • Labour Party candidate Sadiq Khan won the 2016 mayoral elections. The highest level of support for Khan was found in the City and East London, and the lowest in Bexley and Bromley. Labour candidate Ken Livingstone had won the mayoral elections in 2004. • The Labour Party retained twelve London Assembly seats: compared to 2012, it gained one additional constituency seat but lost one London-wide seat. The Labour Party has gained constituency seats at every election since 2004, when it held its lowest number of constituency seats (5). • The Labour Party won comparable vote shares (40 and 44%) in all three London elections. Summary: votes and seats 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Mayoral election Votes (1st round) 223,884 685,548 893,877 889,918 1,148,716 % votes 13% 37% 37% 40% 44% Constituency seats 6 5 6 8 9 Votes 501,296 444,738 673,855 933,438 1,138,576 % votes 32% 25% 28% 42% 44% Seats 6 5 6 8 9 Constituency seats 32% 25% 28% 42% 44% London-wide seats 3 2 2 4 3 Votes 502,874 468,247 665,443 911,208 1,054,801 % votes 30% 25% 28% 41% 40% Seats 3 2 2 4 3 London-wide seats 30% 25% 28% 41% 40% Assembly total Seats 9 7 8 12 12 % seats 36% 28% 32% 48% 48% Note: Labour candidate Ken Livingston was elected Mayor of London in 2004, and Sadiq Khan in 2016 Assembly share of the vote Assembly seats 45% Constituency seats 12 Constituency seats London-wide seats London-wide seats 10 30% 8 6 15% 4 2 0% 0 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Mayoral first round share of the vote 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% City and East North East Lambethand Enfield and Greenwich and London Wandsworth Brent and Harrow Ealing and Barnet and West Central and Croydon Havering and South West Bexley and Hillingdon Merton and Southwark Haringey Camden Bromley Redbridge Lweisham Sutton Liberal Democrats • The Liberal Democrat candidate for Mayor of London, Caroline Pidgeon, achieved a 5% share of the vote in the first round of the election.
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