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The 1998 Floods in Bangladesh: Disaster Impacts

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The 1998 Floods in Bangladesh: Disaster Impacts The 1998 Floods in Bangladesh Disaster Impacts, Household Coping Strategies, and Response Carlo del Ninno Paul A. Dorosh Lisa C. Smith Dilip K. Roy RESEARCH REPORT 122 INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE WASHINGTON, D.C. Copyright © 2001 International Food Policy Research Institute All rights reserved. Sections of this report may be reproduced without the express permission of but with acknowledgment to the International Food Policy Research Institute. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The 1998 floods in Bangladesh : disaster impacts, household coping strategies, and response / Carlo del Ninno . [et al.]. p. cm. — (Research report ; 122) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-89629-127-8 1. Floods—Bangladesh. 2. Food supply—Bangladesh. 3. Food relief—Bangladesh. 4. Disaster relief—Bangladesh. I. Del Ninno, Carlo. II. Research report (International Food Policy Research Institute) ; 122. HV610 1998.B3 A19 2001 363.34′93′095492—dc21 2001055541 Contents Tables v Figures ix Foreword xi Acknowledgments xiii Summary xv 1. Introduction 1 2. Data and Methods 7 3. Foodgrain Markets and Availability 20 4. Impact of the Floods on Agricultural Production, Employment, and Wealth 42 5. Impact of the Floods on Food Consumption, Food Security, Health, and Nutrition 55 6. Household Coping Strategies 80 7. Impacts of Government Food Relief Operations 93 8. Conclusions and Lessons from the 1998 Floods 101 Appendix A: Distribution and Plots of Category Variables Used for the Flood Exposure Index 105 Appendix B: Supplementary Tables 107 References 111 Tables 1.1 The 1998 floods: Chronology of events 3 1.2 Bangladesh flood levels and duration, 1988 and 1998 4 1.3 Estimates of losses and damage in the Bangladesh floods of 1988 and 1998 5 2.1 List of thanas in the sample 10 2.2 Construction of the flood exposure index 12 2.3 Household per capita expenditure by thana and severity of household flood exposure 13 2.4 Availability of land and other assets in the period before the floods, by severity of flood exposure 15 2.5 Determinants of household flood exposure: Regression results (dependent variable: flood index 0–16) 16 2.6 Determinants of household flood exposure: Regression results (dependent variable: household flood exposure (0 or 1)) 17 2.7 Determinants of per capita household expenditure: Regression results 18 3.1 Foodgrain availability and requirements in Bangladesh, 1980/81–1999/2000 21 3.2 Estimates of the Bangladesh food gap, 1998/99 24 3.3 Budgeted and actual foodgrain distribution, by channel, 1998/99 27 3.4 Wholesale rice prices in Bangladesh, 1997/98 and 1998/99 29 3.5 Estimated rice demand and implicit private stock change, 1996/97–1998/99 32 3.6 Implicit private stock changes under alternative assumptions for own-price elasticity of rice demand 33 3.7 Total production of aman and kharif rice in Bangladesh and India and percentage deviation from trend, 1971–99 36 3.8 Rice shortfalls, public stocks, and market prices in Bangladesh, 1974/75–1998/99 38 4.1 Distribution of farmers’ land by flood depth in a normal year and in 1998, by survey thana 43 4.2 Aggregate area, production, and loss of crops on sample farms 45 4.3 Average area, production, and loss of crops, by flood exposure 46 4.4 Producing households and loss of agricultural production, by farm size and flood exposure 47 4.5 Households’ loss of assets, by asset type and severity of flood exposure 48 4.6 Flood-exposed households’ loss of assets, by asset type and expenditure quintile 49 4.7 Average monthly earnings of workers in current main job in the periods before, during, and after the floods 51 4.8 Labor participation rates, by age and gender, November 1998 51 vi TABLES 4.9 Nonparticipants’ reasons for not looking for a job 52 4.10 Distribution of engaged persons, by age and job category 53 5.1 Households consuming 15 foods and daily per capita quantities consumed, by severity of flood exposure 57 5.2 Food budget shares and price indexes of 15 foods, by severity of flood exposure 58 5.3 Determinants of household daily per capita calorie consumption: Regression results 60 5.4 Food security by severity of flood exposure 62 5.5 Food security by expenditure quintile for flood-exposed households 62 5.6a Determinants of food security status: Village flood exposure logit model 63 5.6b Determinants of food security status: Household-level flood exposure logit model with village random effects 64 5.6c Determinants of food security status: Household-level flood exposure logit model with village fixed effects 65 5.7 Determinants of food security status: Village-level flood exposure multinomial logit model 66 5.8 Determinants of female and male consumption of main staples: Regression results (household-level flood exposure with village fixed effects) 68 5.9 Gender differences in consumption of animal products 69 5.10 Impact of flooding on gender-based discrimination in consumption of fish, meat, eggs, and milk: Summary of regression results 70 5.11 Health environment characteristics, by severity of flood exposure 71 5.12 Prevalence of any illness, diarrhea, respiratory illness, and fever, by severity of flood exposure 73 5.13 Determinants of prevalence of any illness, diarrhea, respiratory illness, and fever: Regression results (village-level flood exposure logit model) 74 5.14 Impact of flood exposure on prevalence of any illness for children, adolescents, and adults: Summary of regression results (village-level flood exposure logit model) 75 5.15 Nutritional status of preschool children, adolescent girls, and nonpregnant women 76 5.16 Determinants of wasting and stunting among preschool children: Regression results 77 5.17 Determinants of chronic energy deficiency (CED) among nonpregnant women: Regression results 78 6.1 Coping strategies employed by Bangladeshi people in response to the 1998 floods, self-reported in field surveys 81 6.2 Percentage of flood-exposed households with outstanding loans taken after July 1, 1998, and average debt, by total expenditure quintile 83 6.3 Loans taken, by source and severity of flood exposure 84 6.4 Percentage of households purchasing food on credit and average amount purchased (in the month prior to survey), by food group and severity of flood exposure 85 6.5 Percentage of flood-exposed households purchasing food on credit and average amount purchased (in the month prior to survey), by food group and expenditure quintile 86 6.6 Meal eating and skipping, by severity of flood exposure (for the three days preceding the survey) 86 TABLES vii 6.7 Households disposing of assets before the floods, during the floods, and after the floods, by asset type 87 6.8 Percentage of households disposing of assets after July 1998, and average value, by type of assets and severity of flood exposure 88 6.9 Percentage of flood-exposed households disposing of assets after July 1998 and average value, by total expenditure quintile 89 6.10 Coping strategies, flood exposure, and poverty 90 6.11 Determinants of individual household coping strategies: Summary of regression results 91 7.1 Percentage of households receiving transfers and average value of transfers, by severity of flood exposure 94 7.2 Percentage of flood-exposed households receiving transfers and average value of transfers, by expenditure quintile 95 7.3 Determinants of participation in Gratuitous Relief and Vulnerable Group Feeding programs: Regression results 96 7.4 Determinants of per capita calorie consumption due to village flood exposure and amount received of GR transfers: Regression results 97 A.1 Frequency distribution of the category variables used for the flood exposure index 105 B.1 Monthly average price of high-yielding varieties of coarse rice, 1998 107 B.2 Total value of assets owned, by severity of flood exposure 108 B.3 Number of households that suffered any asset losses, by flood exposure 108 B.4 Total value of assets lost for households that suffered any losses, by flood exposure 108 B.5 Total value of assets owned for households that suffered any losses, by flood exposure 109 Figures 1.1 Flooded area and aman production, 1970–98 5 2.1 The pathways of flood impact on the domestic availability and household consumption of foodgrains 8 2.2 The multiple pathways of flood impacts on household resources and people’s well-being 9 2.3 Map of flood-affected areas of Bangladesh as of September 9, 1998, and thanas selected for the investigation 11 2.4 Severity of flood exposure and percentage of households in the bottom 40th percentile of per capita expenditure by thana 13 3.1 Total rice production and availability in Bangladesh, 1976/77–1999/2000 22 3.2 The government’s budgeted and actual distribution of rice and total foodgrains, 1998/99 26 3.3 Rice prices and quantity of private sector rice imports in Bangladesh, 1993–2000 28 3.4 Variations in wholesale rice prices across districts in Bangladesh, 1998 30 3.5 Wheat prices, quantity of private sector wheat imports, and net public wheat distribution in Bangladesh, 1993–2000 31 3.6 Closing stocks of rice and total foodgrains in Bangladesh, 1995–2000 40 4.1 Bangladesh crop calendar and seasonal flooding 44 4.2 Average number of days in the current main job in the periods before, during, and after the floods 50 4.3 Labor participation rates, by age and gender, November 1998 52 5.1 Household daily per capita calorie consumption, by expenditure quintile and severity of flood exposure 59 5.2 Distribution of households with consumption above and below the minimum caloric requirement, by share of expenditure on food 61 5.3 Female and male consumption of meals containing six staple foods,
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