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Bangladesh Jobs Diagnostic.” World Bank, Washington, DC JOBS SERIES Public Disclosure Authorized Issue No. 9 Public Disclosure Authorized DIAGNOSTIC BANGLADESH Public Disclosure Authorized Main Report Public Disclosure Authorized JOBS DIAGNOSTIC BANGLADESH Thomas Farole, Yoonyoung Cho, Laurent Bossavie, and Reyes Aterido Main Report © 2017 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank. 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA. Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org. Some rights reserved This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the govern- ments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions This work is available under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 IGO license (CC BY 3.0 IGO) http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo. Under the Creative Commons Attribution license, you are free to copy, distribute, transmit, and adapt this work, including for commercial purposes, under the following conditions: Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Thomas Farole, Yoonyoung Cho, Laurent Bossavie, and Reyes Aterido. 2017. “Bangladesh Jobs Diagnostic.” World Bank, Washington, DC. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO. Translations—If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This translation was not created by The World Bank and should not be considered an official World Bank translation. The World Bank shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation. Adaptations—If you create an adaptation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: This is an adaptation of an original work by The World Bank. Views and opinions expressed in the adaptation are the sole responsibility of the author or authors of the adaptation and are not endorsed by The World Bank. Third-party content—The World Bank does not necessarily own each component of the content contained within the work. The World Bank therefore does not warrant that the use of any third-party-owned individual component or part contained in the work will not infringe on the rights of those third parties. The risk of claims resulting from such infringement rests solely with you. If you wish to re-use a component of the work, it is your responsibility to determine whether permission is needed for that re-use and to obtain permission from the copyright owner. Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, or images. All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: [email protected]. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Lead authors of the report were Thomas Farole and Yoonyoung Cho, together with Laurent Bossavie and Reyes Aterido. Adrian Scutaru, David De Padua, Monica Paganini, Upasana Khadka, and Muhammad Faisal Ali Baig provided excellent research and analytical support. Important contributions were also received from the fol- lowing World Bank Group colleagues at various points in the process: Simon Davies, Michael Engman, Zahid Hussain, Yue Li, Manjula Luthria, Dino Merotto, Mrinal Sircar, Rebekah Smith, Hosna Ferdous Sumi, and Michael Weber. Pallavi Mittal and Jane Park provided excellent GIS mapping and geospatial analysis, and invaluable sup- port on design and copy editing came from Nita Congress. Special thanks to Iffath Sharif for helpful advice and guidance throughout the process, and to Syud Amer Ahmed for his careful reading and excellent suggestions on draft versions. The work was carried out in close collaboration with the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). The team would like to acknowledge the support of the BBS in providing access to the primary microdata sources used in the report, including the Labor Force Survey, the Economic Census, and the Survey of Manufacturing Industries. The authors would like to thank participants of seminars and consultations held in Dhaka between November 29 and December 7, 2016, and on March 1 and June 1, 2017; and in Washington, D.C., on December 15, 2016. In addition, valuable comments and suggestions were received from Nomaan Majid and Aurelio Parisotto of the International Labour Organization. The team worked with close guidance from David Robalino, Pablo Gottret, and Stefano Paternostro. Peer reviewers were Gladys Lopez-Acevedo, Sandeep Mahajan, Cem Mete, and Michael Wong. The work was carried out under the leadership of Michal Rutkowski and Qimiao Fan. The report, produced as part of the Let’s Work Partnership in Bangladesh, is made possible through a grant from the World Bank’s Jobs Umbrella Trust Fund, which is supported by the Department for International Devel- opment/UK AID, and the governments of Norway, Germany, Austria, the Austrian Development Agency, and the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency. iii CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................................................iii ABBREVIATIONS ....................................................................................................................................................vi FOREWORD ..........................................................................................................................................................vii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................................viii 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................ 1 Why Jobs Diagnostics? ...................................................................................................................................1 Objectives ......................................................................................................................................................1 Key sources used in the analysis .....................................................................................................................1 Structure of the report ...................................................................................................................................2 PART 1. THE BIG PICTURE: TRENDS, TRANSFORMATIONS, AND MACRO DRIVERS ...................3 2. GROWTH AND JOBS: MACRO DRIVERS, TRANSFORMATIONS, AND RECENT TRENDS ..................................... 4 Growth, poverty reduction, and job creation in Bangladesh ...........................................................................4 Economic transformation and sources of growth............................................................................................7 Slowing job growth and persistent challenges of quality and inclusivity ........................................................13 3. LOOKING AHEAD: DEMOGRAPHICS AND PROJECTIONS ................................................................................ 20 PART 2. LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES: KEY CHALLENGES ....................................................... 25 4. TRENDS IN LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES ........................................................................................................ 26 5. ACCESS TO QUALITY JOBS ............................................................................................................................. 35 6. DETERMINANTS OF EARNINGS ....................................................................................................................... 45 7. INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION .......................................................................................................................... 50 PART 3. SOURCES OF JOB CREATION: SECTORAL, ENTERPRISE, AND SPATIAL TRANSFORMATION ................................................................................................................ 65 8. STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION .................................................................................................................. 66 9. ENTERPRISE TRANSFORMATION AND PRODUCTIVITY .................................................................................. 74 10. SPATIAL TRANSFORMATION ........................................................................................................................ 85 iv PART 4. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY DIRECTION ................................................................. 101 11. CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY DIRECTION ....................................................................................................102 Brief summary of main findings ..................................................................................................................102 Initial policy direction .................................................................................................................................103
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