Ann.M. G. Miah, M. A. Agric. Rahman, (2016) M. 20(1 M. Rahman & 2) : 61-74 and S. R. Saha ISSN 1025-482X (Print)61 2521-5477 (Online) IMPACTS OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON MAJOR FOOD CROPS IN SELECTED AGRO-ECOSYSTEMS OF BANGLADESH M. G. Miah*1, M. A. Rahman1, M. M. Rahman1 and S. R. Saha1 Abstract The agriculture of Bangladesh has been recognized as one of the most vulnerable sectors to the impacts of climate change due to its juxtaposing geographical position. This study examined the nexus between long-term (1960–2014) climate variables with the yield and area of major food crops in selected agro-ecosystems (, , , and ) of Bangladesh. Secondary data from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) were used in analyzing climate variability for all the studied locations. Data of crop yields were collected from the Department of Agricultural Extension (DAE) local offices and respective farmers. Fifty farmers from each site were selected randomly and interviewed to investigate the farmers’ perceptions regarding the climate change phenomenon and its impact on crop production. Results showed the increasing trend of temperatures with time, which became more pronounced in Jessore and Dinajpur. Annual rainfall also revealed an increasing trend in all locations except Comilla. The analyses of Lower Confidence Level (LCL) and Upper Confidence Level (UCL) clearly indicated that the climate in recent years (1990–2014) changed conspicuously compared to that in 30 years ago (1960– 1989). Results of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) indicated drought intensity, which was distinct in Dinajpur and Jessore. Although area under crop production had declined, yields showed an increasing trend in all locations because of technological advances. Survey results showed that the farmers’ perceptions of climate variability supported the meteorological data. The erratic rainfall and elevated temperature are the key driving forces underpinning farmer’s decision towards crop-switching (e.g., from cereals to vegetables) to combat the climate change effects. Keywords: Climate variability, agro-ecosystems, standardized precipitation index (SPI), crop production.

Introduction acts as a mainstay of the economy of these Bangladesh epitomizes the most sensitive millions of people, which employs around hotspots for the catastrophic events of climate 63% of the population and contributes over variability due to juxtaposing geographical 18.3% of the country’s GDP (Abdullah and position of the funnel-shaped Bay of Rahman, 2015). Extreme climatic events for to the south and the biggest Himalayans instance, increasing temperature and erratic mountains to the north (Rahman et al., 2017). rainfall along with austere and frequent It ranked fifth in the global climate risk index floods, droughts and cyclones in the recent out of 170 countries having 168.95 million years, severely plagued the agricultural sector people (Rahman et al., 2016). Agriculture and jeopardy the Bangladesh’s food and

1Department of Agroforestry and Environment, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur 1706, Bangladesh, *Corresponding author: [email protected]. 62 Impacts of climate variability on major food crops livelihood security (Rahman et al., 2016). In areas of Bangladesh remarkably damage recent years, erratic weather patterns lead to Boro rice just before harvesting that led to unseasonable biotic and abiotic stresses in the reduced rice production which severely agricultural sectors have resulted in reduced impedes the food availability and livelihood yield or crop failure. of that region. Though most parts of Bangladesh are more Nevertheless, most of the climatic perils occur or less inclined to climate change menaces, due to the undulations of climate variability, the north and northwestern region and coastal predominantly for the rising temperature regions are particularly very sensitive due particularly during the monsoon season to specific geo-climatic and anthropogenic and the arbitrary rainfall pattern (GoB and activities (Rahman et al., 2016; Abdullah et al., UNDP, 2009). It has been anticipated that the 2015). In North-west region of Bangladesh, average day temperature of Bangladesh will recurrent local drought due to the arrival or increase to about 1.0°C by 2030, 1.4°C by with an early withdrawal of monsoon rains 2050, and 2.4°C by 2100 (Sarker et al., 2012). causes greater yield loss relative to food Interestingly, the annual rainfall intensity remains almost unchanged but the number and submergence (World Bank, 2013). It has of days without rain is increasing; thereby been reported that around 0.58 (7.41%), 1.7 exacerbate the drought intensity (Amin et (21.7%), and 2.18 million ha (27.8%) of land al., 2015). Any spatial and temporal changes are under the threats of very severe, severe, of climatic variability have already brought and moderate-severe gradients of drought, some changes in agricultural crop production respectively, affecting approximately 53% of in reference to growing period and cropping the population of Bangladesh (MoA, 2013; pattern. Different climatic factors and their Alauddin and Sarkar, 2014). Concomitantly, interaction (temperature, precipitation, etc.) the coastal region of Bangladesh which determine the growth and development of encompasses about one-fifth of the country’s any plant. A plant will behave differently in landmass and supports the livelihood of about diverse interactions and will show dissimilar one-third of the total country’s population is impacts (Tripathi et al., 2016). The impacts under the threats of salinity problem (Rahman will be either visual or changes happen in its et al., 2017). About 1.0 million ha of land physiology and the level of other biological along the coastal belt is under the intimidation processes (Cicchino et al., 2013). In harmony of different magnitudes of salinities which with the world, the overwhelming effects have been provoked by sea level rise resulting of climate change severely encumber the lessening of agricultural outputs by billions of production of almost all major food crops in dollars per annum, with remediation endeavors Bangladesh, namely rice (Oryza sativa), wheat being troublesome and costly (Rahman et (Triticum aestivum), and potato (Solanum al., 2016; IWM, 2014). Furthermore, the tuberosum). Climate erraticism usually shifts frequency of food and cyclones has increased the fowering and fruiting season, accelerate indecently in the recent decades causing the respiration rate than photosynthesis even losses of 114 and 2,570 million US dollars, causing an epidemic disease infestation of respectively (EM-DAT, 2016). Flash foods in many thermo-sensitive crops. M. G. Miah, M. A. Rahman, M. M. Rahman and S. R. Saha 63

Little qualitative or quantitative information are available about the variability of climate changes over time and space (ecosystem), and their impacts on different production systems, especially food crop systems in Bangladesh. Researches are needed for development of risk management technologies for intensive crop species to cope with changing climate and agro-ecosystems. Therefore, the present study aims to in-depth analysis of long-term climate variability and its impacts on major crops in different agro-ecosystems of Bangladesh in developing risk management techniques for crop production under changing climate. Materials and Methods The study was accomplished through analysis of long-term climate data, current weather data of targeted ecosystems; monitoring of responses to major food crops at different growth stages, survey and Focal Group Discussion (FGD) with the farmers. Fig. 1. A map showing the study area. Study area: The study sites were selected representing major climatic zones of study, which was collected from Bangladesh Bangladesh alongside the dominancy of Meteorological Department (BMD). The growing different food crops. Therefore, mean monthly maximum and minimum the study was carried out at varied climatic temperatures were derived by averaging the zones where major food crops, such as rice, daily maximum and minimum temperatures. wheat, and potato are grown. The study To know the seasonal variability and changes, was carried out in Gazipur (rice), Comilla the monthly data were separated into three (rice and potato), Dinajpur (wheat and rice), seasons, namely summer (March to May), and Jessore (wheat and potato) districts monsoon (June to September), and winter (Fig. 1). The areas are being considered (October to February). Secondary data on crop as climatically vulnerable ecosystems of yields were collected from the Department of Bangladesh. Agricultural Extension (DAE). Dataset: The normal climatic parameters at Climate change: Climate change was a given station at any scale can be assumed observed by calculating lower confidence to be the mean of over a 30-year period level (LCL) and upper confidence level (UCL) (WMO, 1989). Using this criterion, the using following formula described by Ahmed dataset from 1960 to 2014 were used in this et al. (2015): 64 Impacts of climate variability on major food crops

schedule. The farmers were interviewed to SD UCL= X + 2.025* get primary information on their livelihood, n socio-economics and experiences in crop production and crop history. Moreover, SD LCL= X − 2.025* five farmers for each crop (rice, wheat, and n potato) at each site were selected to monitor Where, X is the average of long-term (1960- the crop production. 2013) observed data; SD is the standard PRA and FGD deviation of the observed data; is the square Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) and root of the observed data; is the number of Focal Group Discussion (FGD) tools observations; 2.025 is the coefficient factor. were used to know the history of crop performances and farmers’ livelihood and Standardized precipitation index (SPI) socio-economics. The SPI was developed to identify and monitor Crop monitoring droughts with minimum data requirements of The test crops (rice, wheat and potato) long–term (≥30 years) monthly precipitation were monitored intensively at different records (McKee et al., 1993). It has advantages growing stages at all the agro-ecosystems over other indices, which includes statistical from seeding to harvesting. During the consistency, capacity to describe short- and growing stages, data on weather parameters long-term drought and the ability to carry (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity) out drought risk analysis. Hayes et al. (1999) were recorded at all the sites to explain the suggested drought classification based on the weather condition that infuenced the growth SPI values in which positive values indicate and yield of crops. wet conditions and negative values signify Data analyses dry periods. It refects the number of standard Climatic data were analyzed by MS Excel, deviations that an observed value deviates while survey data were analyzed by Statistical from the long-term mean. Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) Xi− X software package. SPI = σ Results and Discussion Where, SPI is Standardized Precipitation Trends of temperatures and rainfall th Index; Xi, X and σ are i year precipitation, Long-term (1960-2014) trends in temperatures long-term mean of precipitation and standard and rainfall of the study areas have been deviation of the mean, respectively. shown in Fig. 2. The increment rate per year of maximum temperature was more Farmers selection and primary survey distinct in Jessore (0.0165°C) followed by Fifty farmers from each site were selected that of Gazipur (0.0045°C) and Comilla randomly and surveyed from December (0.0035°C), however, decreasing trend was 2013 to March 2014 to know the farmers’ recorded in Dinajpur at the rate of 0.0163°C understanding regarding the climate per year. Contrarai-wise, utmost increment change phenomenon and its impact on rate of minimum temperature was found in crop production by using an interview Gazipur (0.012°C) subsequently Dinajpur M. G. Miah, M. A. Rahman, M. M. Rahman and S. R. Saha 65

Fig. 2. Long- term trends of (a) maximum temperature, (b) minimum temperature and (c) rainfall pattern of four study areas during the period of 1960-2014. 66 Impacts of climate variability on major food crops

(0.0103°C) and Comilla (0.0049°C), though, of mid-September to mid-October. Jessore the negligible decreasing rate was observed district also didn’t show any differences in Jessore (0.0036°C). The trend of annual like Comilla except slight increase in the rainfall showed an increasing pattern in months of July and September. Time series of Gazipur and Jessore at the rate of 3.24 and 1.68 2011–2013 of showed sharp mm per year, respectively, while it showed increase in the month of August, while sharp decreasing trend in Comilla and Dinajpur, and lower in the month of October. the rates were 6.77 mm and 1.25 mm per year, Decadal changes of temperatures and respectively. rainfall Changing pattern of temperatures and rainfall The decadal changes of maximum temperature, The Fig. 3 showed the changes of maximum minimum temperature, and rainfall in all the temperature, minimum temperature and locations are shown in Fig. 4. It was manifested rainfall in all the study locations between from the long- term climatic data (1960–2013) January and December. The LCL and UCL that weather in recent years (2010–2013) have during the period of three-time series (1991– been changed remarkably and almost upper 2000; 2001–2010; 2010–2013), regarding the trend of maximum temperature was recorded highest maximum temperature, indicated that in Comilla and Jessore regions, while lower Comilla exhibited few differences among the trends were found in Dinajpur and Gazipur time series, while 2011–2013-time series of regions compared to that in past decades. The Dinajpur crossed the lower limit (LCL) in the highest maximum temperature (36°C) was month of January, and in the month of April found in the month of April–May in Dinajpur to May both 2001–2010 and 2011–2013-time and Jessore in most of the decades except series. In case of Jessore, 2011-2013-time 2010–2013 period, which continued up to June. series showed lower trend in the month of Among the four regions, Dinajpur showed the January to February and October to December, lowest maximum temperature during 2010– while it was the highest in the month of June, 2013 period in the month of January (21°C). though 2001–2010- time series showed slight Long- term weather data regarding minimum increasing trend during the month of June temperature also showed similar trends. The to September. In case of Gazipur, 2011– highest minimum temperature (26°C) was 2013-time series showed lower trend during found at all decades during June–September the month of January to May. In case of in all the regions except in Jessore, which was minimum temperature, there had not been any started from May. Among the four regions, differences among the time series in respect Dinajpur and Jessore showed the lowest of LCL and UCL except lowering trend of minimum temperatures during 2010–2014 2011–2013 during the month of January to period in the month of January (8°C). Erratic February. In case of rainfall, pattern of rainfall distribution was observed in didn’t show any irregularities except lowering trend of 2011-2013-time series in the month the rainy season (June to September) in all the of July. In Dinajpur, 2001–2010 showed slight regions irrespective of decades. In Comilla, upper trend in the month of June and October the period from 1960 to 1969 showed upper to November, while 1990–2000-time series trend from July to October as compared to also showed sharp increase during the month other decades. Dinajpur showed remarkable M. G. Miah, M. A. Rahman, M. M. Rahman and S. R. Saha 67

Fig. 3. Long-term (1960-1990), decadal (1991-2010) and recent year (2011-2013) changes in (a) average monthly maximum temperature (b) average monthly minimum temperature, and (c) average monthly rainfall in four study areas. Recent decades (1991-2010) as well as years (2011-2013) of changes were copared to 1960-1990 time periods on the basis of LCL and UCL. LCL, Lower confidence level and UCL, Upper confidence level. 68 Impacts of climate variability on major food crops

Fig. 4. Decadal (1990-2009) and recent year (2010-2013) changes in (a) average monthly maximum temperature (b) average monthly minimum temperature, and (c) average monthly rainfall in four study areas. M. G. Miah, M. A. Rahman, M. M. Rahman and S. R. Saha 69 changes in all decades, for example, 1980– in Fig. 5. It was observed that the drought 1989 and 1990–1999 decades reached above frequency was dominant in the recent years in 500 mm in July and September. On the other Dinajpur, Jessore, and Gazipur, and the SPI hand, Gazipur showed dramatic change in values crossed the normal level (-0.5 to +0.5) 2010–2013 period from mid-July to mid- in most of the years. In Comilla, it showed September followed by where dominancy of wet frequency. The highest fuctuations were found low. Among the fuctuation in drought frequency was found regions, the highest rainfall (about 610 mm) in Gazipur followed by that in Dinajpur and was recorded in Gazipur followed by that in Jessore regions. Comilla (600 mm), Dinajpur (599 mm), and Trend of area and yield of crops Jessore (410 mm) during the monsoon. The area and yield of rice (aus, aman and Dry-wet conditions boro), potato and wheat over time have Annual drought and wet frequency been presented in Fig. 6. For aus rice, sharp corresponding to Standardized Precipitation decreasing trend of area per year was noted Index (SPI) between 1960 and 2013 is shown in Jessore (344 ha yr-1) followed by that in

Fig. 5. Long-term (1960-2013) annual standardized precipitation index (SPI) in the different locations indicating frequency of dry and wet conditions. Bar showed by red color indicate dry condition and deep blue color indicate wet situation. 70 Impacts of climate variability on major food crops

Fig. 6. Area and yiled trends of (a) aus, (b) aman, (c) boro, (d) potato, and (e) wheat crops during the period of 2008-2013 in different selected areas. M. G. Miah, M. A. Rahman, M. M. Rahman and S. R. Saha 71

Dinajpur (18.51 ha yr-1) and Gazipur (8.41 ha to uncertainty of rainfall. Therefore, potato– yr-1), though slightly increasing trend was found maize–vegetables cropping pattern became in Comilla (5.34 ha yr-1). Despite declining aus common and popular in Comilla followed by rice cropped area, the yield showed a slight mustard–boro rice–aman rice and mustard– increasing trend in all the locations except maize–aman rice. In addition, interestingly, Dinajpur. Similar to aus rice, area under aman many farmers are growing only vegetables rice also showed a decreasing trend in Jessore, throughout the year. In Dinajpur, farmers Gazipur, and Dinajpur at the rate of 278.43, mostly used to cultivate aman rice, which was 154.94, and 151.49 ha per year, respectively, mostly rainfed. Boro rice–fallow–aman rice, while a slight increasing trend was noted in wheat–fallow–aman rice, potato–maize–aman Comilla (2.57 ha year-1). However, the yield rice, potato-boro rice- aman rice have been found to be widely followed cropping patterns of aman rice showed an increasing trend in in Dinajpur. In Jessore, vegetables were found all the locations. In spite of declining boro to occupy more areas by converting rice fields, rice area, yield showed an increasing trend therefore, vegetables are being dominated even better than aus and aman rice. The area in that area, where wheat–vegetable– and yield for potato production showed static vegetable, potato–vegetable–vegetable and trend in all the locations. In case of wheat, the vegetable–aman rice–vegetable were found most decrement rate of area was observed in as the common cropping patterns. Vegetable Dinajpur followed by that in Comilla, Gazipur, growing area was also increasing in Gazipur as and Jessore. However, the increment rate of it is near city. Boro rice–fallow–aman wheat yield was remarkable in the past in all rice and boro rice–vegetables–aman rice were the locations except Gazipur although the yield found as the common cropping patterns. became static in recent years. Critical stages of crops Changes of cropping pattern Cropping patterns, based on the opinions of During field visit and FGD, farmers opined the farmers in different locations, have been that critical stage(s) of crops were affected presented in Table 1. In Comilla, once upon the crop production under changing climate a time, the aman rice was the major crop, (Table 2). Most of the farmers, irrespective but currently farmers are being interested in of regions, opined that panicle initiation, tiller growing maize and vegetables possibly due initiation, fowering and milky stages are Table 1. Major cropping patterns in the study areas Comilla Dinajpur Jessore Gazipur Potato-Maize- Boro-Fallow-Aman Wheat-Vegetable- Boro-Fallow-Aman Vegetables Wheat-Fallow-Aman Vegetable Boro-Vegetable-Aman Mustard-Boro-Aman Potato-Maize-Aman Potato-Vegetable- Vegetables Mustard-Maize-Aman Potato-Boro-Aman Vegetable Vegetables Vegetables Vegetable-Aman- Vegetable Vegetables 72 Impacts of climate variability on major food crops

Table 2. Critical stages of different crops sensitive to weather parameters Critical stages of the studied crops sensitive to weather parameters Location Rice Potato Wheat Tiller initiation, fowering Vegetative growth Comilla NS* and milking stage Tuber initiation Crown root initiation, Tiller initiation, fowering Tuber initiation Dinajpur fowering, joining, milky and milking stage Tuber bulking and tillering Tuber initiation Crown root initiation, Jessore NS Tuber bulking fowering, heading Panicle initiation, tiller Gazipur initiation, fowering and NS NS milking stage *NS – Not studied

Table 3. Farmers` perception on seasonal changes of climatic parameters compared to 10 years ago Parameter Location Kharif-1 Kharif-2 Rabi Comilla + + 0 Dinajpur + + - Temperature Jessore + + - Gazipur + + + Comilla - + - Dinajpur - + - Rainfall Jessore - + - Gazipur 0 + - Comilla 0 + 0 Dinajpur 0 + 0 Flood Jessore 0 0 0 Gazipur 0 0 0 Comilla 0 0 + Dinajpur + 0 + Drought Jessore + 0 + Gazipur 0 0 + Comilla 0 0 + Dinajpur 0 0 + Fog Jessore 0 0 + Gazipur 0 0 + + = Positive opinion, - = Negative opinion, 0 = no opinion critical for rice; whereas vegetative growth, Farmer`s perception on climate variability tuber initiation and tuber bulking stages are Farmer’s perception on climate variability critical for potato; and crown root initiation, in terms of temperatures, rainfall, fooding, fowering, joining, milky, and tillering stages drought, and fog which play a vital role in are critical stages for wheat. crop production is presented in Table 3. M. G. Miah, M. A. Rahman, M. M. Rahman and S. R. Saha 73

Most of the farmers opined that there was an and winter months exceeded the critical levels. increasing trend of temperatures in kharif-1 On an average, the rainfall showed increasing and kharif-2 seasons in all the locations, trends and the increment rates were 6.72 mm, whereas in rabi season, temperature was 4.98 mm, and 3.84 mm per year in Dinajpur, increased in Gazipur, it was unchanged in Jessore, and Gazipur, respectively. Monsoon Comilla and found decreased in Dinajpur and rainfall has been increased by 24.2, 7.5, 11.4, Jessore. Regarding rainfall, farmers observed and 13.0%; whereas during dry season, rainfall the decreasing trend of rainfall during kharif-1 decreased by 57.6, 19.7, 37.8, and 23.3% in and rabi seasons in all the locations except in Comilla, Dinajpur, Jessore, and Gazipur, Gazipur in kharif-1 season, which remained respectively, in recent years compared to almost unchanged. Many farmers claimed that in the base decade (1960–1969). The that the rainfall seasonality was changed and decrease of rainfall in dry season increases although the total rainfalls decreased yet the drought frequency. The data revealed that number of rainy days decreased. In last couple cropping area had been decreasing at an of years, there was no big food in Bangladesh. alarming rate. Along with various causes, Therefore, the farmers in the studied areas did unavailability of irrigation, the uncertainty not observe food with any increasing trend in of rainfall and increasing temperatures are Comilla and Dinajpur regions during kharif-2 responsible for decreasing cropped area. season. In case of drought, it was frequently Crop production, however, did not decrease observed in Dinajpur and Jessore regions, due to technological development, such as while it was almost unchanged in other regions modern variety, mangement technique, and during kharif-1 season. In kharif-2 season, protection options. In the recent years, the drought has not been observed, while it was yield potentiality is decreasing due to various common during rabi season in all the regions. hazards under changing climate. As a result, During winter season (rabi), fog intensity has cropping patterns in different locations have been increased in all the regions and it creates been changed. Farmers are not interested problem for potato cultivation. in rainfed crops and they are interested in Conclusion vegetables cultivation. Irregular rainfall and Climate-driven changes have direct temperatures are being observed particularly impacts on Bangladesh agriculture due to during the critical stages of different crops that its vulnerable geographical position where make farming more vulnerable. Increasing high temperature or inadequate rain often temperature and fog are responsible for high limits crop productivity, which is not being incidence of diseases and pests. Under these well addressed. Analyses of long-term data circumstances, wheat and potato production showed that the maximum and the minimum are being affected severely. To sustain crop temperatures have been increasing in most of production under changing climate, suitable the regions. Increasing rate of temperature was variety and techniques are needed. Proper more in Jessore and Dinajpur regions. It was programs should be undertaken to build observed that temperatures during summer farmers resilience along with good strategy. 74 Impacts of climate variability on major food crops

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