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Active Faults Hazard on Offshore Pipelines: Case of the Submarine Gas Pipeline Route Across the South Evoikos Gulf, Central Greece

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Active Faults Hazard on Offshore Pipelines: Case of the Submarine Gas Pipeline Route Across the South Evoikos Gulf, Central Greece ACTIVE FAULTS HAZARD ON OFFSHORE PIPELINES: CASE OF THE SUBMARINE GAS PIPELINE ROUTE ACROSS THE SOUTH EVOIKOS GULF, CENTRAL GREECE Christoforos P. Metaxas Earthquake Planning and Protection Organization, Greece. [email protected] Major faults that could constitute a serious seismic hazard in the area of the Stamata-Alivery routing of the 20’’ H.P.N.G. pipeline offshore the South Evoikos Gulf are the Lefkadi and the Oropos faults, the bordering faults of the South Evia neotectonic basin. The offshore tracks of these major normal faults, as it proved by submarine geophysical survey, cross the designate gas pipeline rout as at the southern margin of the Gulf and at the it’s northern margin. An amount of historical strong seismic events of magnitude M>6.0, are associated with these fault zones, the potential of which to create the maximum expected strong event is about Mmax = 6.8. The Lapsed Rate of the active Lefkadi fault is about 89-111%. So, the fault could be in the last study of its seismic cycle and the probability an earthquake with M>=6.0 to occur at pipeline crossing with Lefkadi active fault, during the pipeline operational life (50 year), are very high. For designate pipeline route the Operating Design Earthquake (ODE) having 70 years return period is an event with M=5.4-5.5. The Maximum Design Earthquake (MDE) with 975 years return period is an event with magnitude 6.5-6.6. The Permanent Ground Displacement Hazard Curves are calculated from two fault sources for sites at the pipeline-fault crossings. The 51% and 5% chance of exceedance of Permanent Ground Displacements are 9-10 cm and 75-80 cm respectively for ODE (M= 5.4-5.5) and MDE (M=6.5-6.6) events. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis has been performed for the designate pipeline route area. The Total Seismic Hazard Curves displaying the values of peak ground acceleration (PGA), velocity (PGV) and 5% damped spectral acceleration (Sa) and velocity (Sv) for spectral period T = 0.3 sec, for rock conditions have been calculated for three sites along the pipeline route. The major characteristics of the PSHA results are that the calculated strong ground motion values are higher than ones proposed for the pipeline route area by Greek Seismic Design Code (2000). The explanation could be based on the fact, that the site – surface fault track distance, but not the site – epicenter distance is the major parameter defining the ground motion values and related damages of infrastructure. Thus, the calculated strong ground motion values appear to be lower than real values, which could be recorded in field at pipeline fault crossings with the Lefkadi and Oropos faults during the expected earthquakes of M= 5.4-5.5 (ODE) and M=6.5-6.6 (MDE), as it have taken place during the Northridge, 1994 (USA) and Kobe, 1995 (Japan) earthquakes. 1. TECTONIC SETTINGS AND ACTIVE FAULTS The area of the designate pipeline route belongs to the zone, where the Pelagonian zone upthrusts the metamorphic formations of the Attico-cycladic zone (Vergely, 1984, Papanikolaou et al., 1999). Various tectonic phases, from alpine napping to the opening of neotectonic basins, have led to a complicated fracturing of the area. After the alpine movements, the main geodynamics of the broader area, as of the whole Aegean area, is characterized mainly by a tensional regime causing normal faults with remarkable displacements in relief. There are three phases in the neotectonic history of the area (Lemeille, 1977, Mercier et al., 1989): (a) NE-SW tensional regime during the Pliocene, (b) A short period of NW-SE compressional regime during the Upper Pliocene-Lower Pleistocene and (c) N-S tensional regime from the Middle Pleistocene to date The last period is responsible for the opening of the Evoikos Gulf as tectonic graben (rift) and has caused earthquakes of large magnitudes in ancient and recent times. The main neotectonic structures of the broader area, which could be capable to produce strong earthquakes, could be responsible for seismicity and consequently for seismic hazard on the under study pipeline route area, are the post-alpine neotectonic basins and related to them active faults (Figure 1). The Southern Evoikos Gulf is a shallow basin less than 250 m deep that separates Attica from the southern Evia and was formed in Late Pliocene. The thickness of the Plio-Quaternary sediments within the Gulf does not exceed 150 m, except for the southeastern area, where they are 250 m thick (Papanikolaou et al., 1988). The main faults that affect the Pre-Neogene and recent geological formations of the South Evia Basin (under study pipeline route area) are normal fault oriented WNW-ESE to NW- SE. The dominant structure of the South Evoikos Basin, as of the whole under study area, is a major detachment fault (see Figure 1) separating the metamorphic units of Attico-cycladic zone towards the east, from non-metamorphic units of Pelagonian zone towards the west. Moreover, it separates the E-W trending faults in the western part (as Lefkadi fault, Oropos fault, etc) from the NW-SE faults in the eastern part of the under study area, as well as obviously responsible for changing the strike of South Evoikos Basin from E-W to NW-SE. At 1987 the Department of Submarine Geology of IGME in collaboration with Stanford University of USA conducted in the Southern Evoikos Gulf the sub-sea survey using seismic reflection method SPARKER, 300-500 Joules (Perissoratis et al., 1989). Two active faults, bordering the South Evoikos basin towards the North and towards the South have been clearly distinguished. In 1989 Papanikolaou et al published the Submarine Neotectonic Map of the Southern Evoikos Gulf, based on the results of submarine surveys of the Greek National Center of Marine Researches (NCMR). This map also displays two active faults bordering the basin. In February 2006, Geopro GmbH, Hamburg, Germany performed on behalf of HCMR (for Project of the Asprofos S.A.), Athens, Greece a multi-component seismic survey in order to delineate the stratigraphic elements and tectonic structures between the Grammatiko and Aliveri in the Gulf of South Evia along the designated pipeline route. The results of this survey are shown in Figure 2, where we also can clearly see the major bordering faults of the South Evoikos basin. According to (Rondoyanni et al., 2007), two antithetic normal faults with WNW-ESE direction outcrop onshore in the Avlida region and in the plain of the river Lilas, on opposite sides of the South Evoikos Gulf. The Avlida fault, having a northeastern dip, outcrops to the South of village Avlida and affects the Neogene’s deposits, as well as the Pleistocene. The fault continues offshore (we call it as Oropos Fault after Papanikolaou et all, 1999, and Papanikolaou & Papanikolaou, 2007), passing to the north of the village Dilesi, as detected into the recent sediments, by seismic reflection profiles in the Gulf (Papanikolaou et al., 1989, Perisoratis et al., 1989, Perisoratis and van Andel, 1991, Geopro, 2006) and consist of two segments – of WNW-ESE direction and NW-SE direction (see Figure 1). It has a total length more than 40 km (~25 km of the WNW-ESE segment and ~ 20 km of the NW-SE segment), and forms the southern margin of the Evoikos Gulf. The southern Evoikos gulf is a shallow basin less than 250 m deep and the Oropos fault has a throw of 250m, implying that Oropos fault zone is a very recent and active structure. Figure 1: Tectonic scheme and strong (M>=6.0) earthquakes epicenter map of the under study area Black solid lines represent active neotectonic faults (barbs towards the subsided block). Gray dashed line is the location of designate offshore pipeline route Stamata-Aliveri. Stars depict the location of strong (M>=6.0) earthquakes epicenters, and triangles the location of the calculation sites. The antithetic fault (we call it after Rontoyanni et al., 2007, as Lefkadi Fault), dipping to the South, affects the alluvial deposits of the plain of the river Lilas. It continues offshore, for a total length of 35 km, to the South of the villages Eretria , Amarinthos and more to East (Papanikolaou et al., 1989, Perisoratis et al., 1989) and forms the Northern margin of the E-W segment of South Evoikos Gulf. The quantitative interpretation of 22 geoelectrical soundings, based on a horizontal stratification model, showed the existence of a sub vertical electrical discontinuity disturbing the Quaternary deposits, which is directly related with the position of the concerned fault (Rontoyanni et al., 2007). The NE margin of the NW-SE elongated segment of the Southern Evoikos Gulf is formed by another fault, which seems to not being active, as the results of submarine seismic survey show (Papanikolaou et al., 1989, Geopro, 2006). Taking into account the thickness of the syn-rift Holocene and Upper-Pleistocene sediments in offshore seismic profiles (Perissoratis et al., 1989), an average value of the faults slip-rate of the order of 1 mm/yr for the last 150.000 years have been estimated (Perisoratis and van Andel, 1991). This slip rate is smaller than that of the faults delimiting the graben of the North Evoikos Gulf, which is of the order of 3mm/yr, according to Philip (1974). Therefore, within the South Evoikos Basin the two antithetic faults of Oropos and Lefkadi, may be considered currently active, according to the geological and geophysical data, and their evolution have to be connected very closely with the seismic activity of the area. Comparison of the surface expressed neotectonic faults structure with subsurface deep faults tectonic structure, derived from qualitative gravity field interpretation (Metaxas et al., 2001, Metaxas, 2005), shows in generally correspondence of surface and subsurface structures, i.e.
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