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Subverzivní Terorismus V Íránu Magisterská Práce

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Subverzivní Terorismus V Íránu Magisterská Práce MASARYKOVA UNIVERZITA FAKULTA SOCIÁLNÍCH STUDIÍ Katedra mezinárodních vztahů a evropských studií Obor Mezinárodní vztahy Subverzivní terorismus v Íránu Magisterská práce Bc. Mirko Merenda Vedoucí práce: JUDr. Marek Čejka, PhD. UČO: 273655 Obor: Mezinárodní vztahy Imatrikulační ročník: 2012 Brno 2016 Prohlášení o autorství práce Prohlašuji, že jsem magisterskou práci na téma Subverzivní terorismus v Íránu vypracoval samostatně a použil jen zdroje uvedené v seznamu literatury. V Brně 13. 5. 2016 ........................................... Bc. Mirko Merenda Poděkování Chtěl bych poděkovat vedoucímu mé diplomové práce JUDr. Marku Čejkovi, Ph.D., za odborné vedení a cenné rady, které mi při psaní této práce pomohly. Zvláštní poděkování patří také mé rodině a přátelům za dlouhodobou podporu a trpělivost. v průběhu celého mého studia. Obsah 1. Úvod ................................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Cíle a struktura práce ............................................................................................................... 2 2. Teoretický rámec ............................................................................................................................. 3 2.1 Zkoumané faktory a přiřazené indikátory .................................................................................... 4 2.2 Definice pojmů .............................................................................................................................. 7 3. Slabiny a silné stránky režimu bojujícího proti povstalcům............................................................ 9 3.1 Národní jednota ....................................................................................................................... 9 3.1.1 Etnické složení ..................................................................................................................... 10 3.1.2 Náboženství: vztah šíitů, sunitů a dalších náboženských menšin ........................................ 15 3.1.3 Sociální stratifikace a generační změna............................................................................... 18 3.2 Síla režimu ................................................................................................................................... 19 3.2.1 Ozbrojené síly ....................................................................................................................... 19 3.2.2 Zpravodajské služby ............................................................................................................. 23 3.2.3 Administrativa ...................................................................................................................... 24 3.3 Rozhodnost vlády zakročit proti povstalcům .............................................................................. 26 3.4 Zběhlost velitelů v protipovstaleckém boji ................................................................................. 28 4. Příčiny povstání ............................................................................................................................. 30 4.1 Arabové ................................................................................................................................. 30 4.1.1 Atraktivita cílů pro obyvatelstvo ......................................................................................... 31 4.1.2 Intenzita ................................................................................................................................ 35 4.1.3 Exkluzivita............................................................................................................................ 39 4.2 Balúčové ................................................................................................................................ 39 4.2.1 Atraktivita cílů pro zbytek populace ................................................................................... 41 4.2.2 Intenzita ............................................................................................................................... 45 4.2.3 Exkluzivita........................................................................................................................... 48 4.3 Kurdové ....................................................................................................................................... 50 4.3.1 Atraktivita cílů pro zbytek populace ................................................................................... 52 4.3.2 Intenzita ................................................................................................................................ 56 4.3.3 Exkluzivita........................................................................................................................... 61 4.4 Poznámky k diskriminovaným etnickým skupinám, které dosud nemanifestovaly svou nespokojenost vznikem teroristické nebo povstalecké organizace bojující za práva svého lidu....... 62 4.4.1 Turkmeni ............................................................................................................................. 62 i 4.4.2 Ázerbájdžánci ...................................................................................................................... 64 5. Geografické a socioekonomické podmínky .................................................................................. 66 5.1 Poloha .......................................................................................................................................... 66 5.2 Rozloha ........................................................................................................................................ 68 5.3 Uspořádání .................................................................................................................................. 68 5.4 Terén a obyvatelstvo ................................................................................................................... 68 5.5 Ekonomika .................................................................................................................................. 70 5.6 Klima ........................................................................................................................................... 71 6. Zahraniční podpora ....................................................................................................................... 72 6.1 Zahraniční podpora arabským teroristickým organizacím .......................................................... 72 6.2 Zahraniční podpora balúčským teroristickým organizacím ......................................................... 73 6.4 Vztahy Íránu se Saudskou Arábií ................................................................................................. 73 7. Závěr .............................................................................................................................................. 75 8. Přílohy ........................................................................................................................................... 89 9. Použitá literatura a zdroje ............................................................................................................ 101 Počet znaků: 199 857 ii Anotace Tato práce se zabývá vnitřní bezpečností Islámské republiky Írán z hlediska možnosti vzniku povstání v důsledku činnosti domácích subverzivních teroristických skupin. Možnost vzniku povstání je zkoumána ve čtyřech oblastech definovaných Davidem Galulou, a to jak z perspektivy státu tak z perspektivy jednotlivých skupin. Na základě získaných dat práce identifikuje ohniska napětí v podobě některých etnických a náboženských menšin na íránském území. Cílem práce je tedy zhodnotit kapacity a příležitosti teroristických skupin vyvinout se v úspěšné národní povstání. Abstract This thesis focuses on homeland security of the Islamic Republic of Iran with respect to the possibility of an uprising being formed as a result of the activity of domestic subversive terrorist groups. The possibility of an uprising is researched in four areas defined by David Galula both form the perspective of the state and from the perspective of the individual groups. Based on the data gathered, the thesis identifies sources of tension in the form of several ethnic and religious groups in the territory of Iran. Therefore, the aim of this thesis is to evaluate the capabilities and opportunities of the terrorist groups to evolve into a successful national uprising. Klíčová slova Írán, povstání, povstalectví, subverzivní terorismus Key words Insurgency, Iran, subversive terrorism, uprising iii 1. Úvod Írán je zemí, která je dnes často spojovaná s fenoménem státem sponzorovaného terorismu, snahou o zisk jaderných zbraní a náboženskou diktaturou. O popularitě těchto aktivit v mezinárodním společenství vypovídá jeho kontroverzní pověst jak na západě, tak i mezi ostatními muslimskými státy v regionu. Právě tyto státy pocítily největší strach z íránské revoluce a jejího možného šíření do okolí, protože jejich monarchistické státní zřízení, často v čele s absolutisticky vládnoucím panovníkem, bylo z hlediska myšlenek íránské náboženské revoluce nelegitimní a hodné svržení. Čím více šíitů žilo na území těchto států, tím větší byla obava sunitských vládnoucích vrstev z povstání, které by je odstranilo od moci, a tím necitelnější societální politiky pro uklidnění (umlčení) obyvatelstva
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