MINISTERIO DE DEFENSA CUADERNOS de ESTRATEGIA 112-B INSTITUTO ESPAÑOL DE ESTUDIOS ESTRATÉGICOS 2000/2001 STRATEGIC PANORAMA May, 2001 FICHA CATALOGRÁFICA DEL CENTRO DE PUBLICACIONES 2000-2001 strategic panorama / Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos. — [Madrid] : Ministerio de Defensa, Secretaría General Técnica, 2001. — 240 p. ; 24 cm — (Cuadernos de Estrategia ; 112-B). NIPO: 076-01-095-8 — D.L. M 0000-0000 ISBN: 84-7823-841-7 I. Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos. II. España. Ministerio de Defensa. Secretaría General Técnica, ed. III. Serie. Estudios estratégicos / Europa / Africa / Iberoamérica / Mar Mediterráneo / S. XXI Edita: NIPO: 076-01-095-8 ISBN: 84-7823-841-7 Depósito Legal: M-25761-2001 Imprime: Imprenta Ministerio de Defensa Tirada: 750 ejemplares Fecha de edición: mayo, 2001 GENERAL SECRETARIAT OF DIRECTORATE GENERAL FOR DEFENCE POLICY INSTITUTIONAL DEFENCE RELATIONS Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies Working Group no. 5/00 2000/2001 STRATEGIC PANORAMA The ideas contained herein are the responsibility of the authors and do not necessa- rily reflect the opinion of the IEEE, which has sponsored this publication. CONTENTS INTRODUCTION By Javier Pardo de Santayana y Coloma Chapter I A STRATEGIC OVERVIEW OF 2000/2001 By Ramón Armengod López Chapter II THE BUILDING OF EUROPE By Javier Pardo de Santayana y Coloma Chapter III CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE By María Angustias Caracuel Raya Chapter IV THE MEDITERRANEAN By María Dolores Algora Weber Chapter V IBERO-AMERICA By Marcelino de Dueñas Fontán —7— Chapter VI AFRICA By Alejandro Cuerda Ortega EPILOGUE COMPOSITION OF THE WORKING GROUP INDEX —8— INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION It should be pointed out that the 2000-2001 edition of the “Strategic Panorama” incorporates a new feature, in addition to the changes in its team of contributors. The most eloquent expression of Spain’s interest in broadening and enhancing its external action is the Foreign Policy Council set up this year, 2000, on an initiative of the President of the Government, who is its head and driving force. Plans are already under way to boost Spain’s presence in Asia, and it is intended to give greater impetus to relations with sub- Saharan Africa. This effort, which stems from the express objective of restoring Spain to its rightful place on the international scene, should be reflected in our “Strategic Panorama”, which therefore includes certain areas that were not covered specifically in previous editions, although they were partially dealt with in other areas of this study. This broadening process, which will be carried out gradually, has begun with the publication of a new chapter on sub-Saharan Africa and is intended to be followed by another addressing the situation in Asia in next year’s edition. On presenting sub-Saharan Africa, the author of this new chapter con- sidered it appropriate to add to the current outlook some general and his- toric information and considerations that provide a useful perspective and serve as an introduction to this region of the world which had hitherto not been addressed specifically. The Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies’ concern to ensure that the “Panorama” conveys a vision of the current strategic landscape from a truly Spanish point of view and, as such, pays particular attention to the —11— areas of greatest interest to our nation requires us to be particularly sensi- tive to the development of Spanish policy, which is tending towards in- creasingly ambitious external action. THE CO-ORDINATOR OF THE WORKING GROUP —12— CHAPTER ONE A STRATEGIC OVERVIEW OF 2000/2001 A STRATEGIC OVERVIEW OF 2000/2001 By RAMÓN ARMENGOD LÓPEZ Although the figure was charged with symbolism, 2000, the last year of the century and of the millennium, has proved to be another year of tran- sition through which all the currents of this small planet flowed, providing assurances of neither peace nor the future. We actually turned into the third millennium ten years ago, although we will shortly be changing cen- tury: a tiny maladjustment between our solar calendar and the chronome- ter of History. For the western collective conscious, the end and beginning of a millennium is a dramatic date, a moment for something extraordinary to happen, the experience of fast and uncontrollable movement towards something that is not necessarily indefinite progress. It is the embodiment of catastrophism, proof of which can be found in the events of recent years, which causes pessimism to spread among those who announced a “new international order” at the beginning of the nineties. Ignacio Ramonet points out in “Le Monde Diplomatique” that our Euro- American democratic society’s fears of 2000 “are not, as before, political or military (conflicts, wars, terror of atomic weapons), but ecological (imba- lances of nature, environmental upheaval), which affect the personal sphere (health, food) and identity (artificial procreation, genetic engineer- ing), exacerbated by citizens’ concern about the priority governments attach to the interests of economic groups and to corporate egotism ra- ther than common good and general interests”. —15— In the CIDOB yearbook published in 2000, Professor Pere Vilanova writes that “in a short space of time, the world wars have concentrated a huge capacity for change, mustering unthinkable energies” and we now find ourselves without widespread war though with a variety of conflicts. This gives us time to reflect on this global change which has occurred in the international system, albeit without the help of a great, total war, but is a “mutation of which neither the duration, pace or definitive direction are known” and is destroying the parameters of the other international system that shaped the world scene during the 20th century and is now in its death throes. The interaction of ideologies during the long European civil war (the two world wars) in the first half of the century and the world-scale ideolo- gical and military confrontation in the second half spurred or prevented a historic development which is now sprawlingly pursuing another course. Many believe that this course is the famous economic globalisation of which the West is the driving force; that same West led by the United States, the origin of both advanced technology and of a single current of thought, capable of universalising through information technology, through its prestige, system of values, rules and consumption, making it compul- sory both in its own area and in that of the other world civilisations. Civilisations and peoples are reacting more or less favourably to this aim, asserting their cultural, religious and ethnic identities; this fragments, radicalises and triggers conflicts in the international situation that globali- sation sets out to standardise and homogenise. Following a period of what they perceived to be “unforeseen and unpredictable” international events, theorists of 20th century international relations find themselves not only disconcerted by the future, but also incapable of describing today’s world appropriately in terms of an interna- tional system that is “a whole, structured in accordance with a set of con- stant features and variables, with a manner of functioning” (Pere Vilanova). Using the criteria of the millennium that is drawing to a close, they attempt to describe a unipolar order led by American imperial democracy, which is the centre of military supremacy, the global market and technolo- gical development, and the chief guarantor of international legality. This order may evolve towards a multipolar arrangement, with different players on the political and economic scenes. Such a framework is characterised by political and cultural fragmentation and economic and technological unification as described earlier on: midway between these tendencies are —16— United Nations’ attempts at political and ethnic arbitration and the appeals for a “virtuous globalisation” that would entail facing up to the possibilities and risks of the third millennium with a supportive and peaceful effort from all the international players, as the United Nations Secretary-General and Pope John Paul II urge from different angles. The globalisation of risks has, in fact, already occurred. In addition to concern about the destruction of the environment, a process which has speeded up over the past decade (environmental deterioration is a conflict factor between states and peoples; water will be the 21st century’s gold; and climatic changes are the result of unsustainable economic develop- ment) another concern has arisen about our human species. What are we going to do with it? This is not the old fear of nuclear holocaust, which, al- though a real danger in certain regions of the world, has been pushed into the background; rather, it is the pressure that biotechnology and the mani- pulation of our foodstuffs and own genetic code exert on the structure of our biological selves, the possibility that genetic inequality may be added to other existing inequalities. Equally worrying is the pressure on our cultural identity. Information and communication technology and the digital revolution are indeed ush- ering in a new age, irrespective of whether their emergence coincides with the start of the new millennium. The Internet is a debate at world level and can also be a means of individual isolation within natural communities. It raises as many problems as it does possibilities: to whom does the know- ledge belong? How does it affect our privacy? What is the relationship bet- ween dissemination techniques, web management and the ethical and legal order of the virtual universe? With respect to the general strategic outlook, although we do not share the trend of academic thought which hails “confusion” as the paradigm of today’s world of transition, we have no choice but to recognise the grow- ing evidence of new and generally negative currents within the formal poli- tico-juridical structure of international affairs. These currents are like a constellation of states whose connections are growing stronger and stronger: financial crime, arms and drug trafficking, trafficking of humans and protected species, toxic waste, etc., contaminated animal feed, each with its respective mafia.