Cyclone Update 2 January 2015

Overview

Severe Ula (Cat 3) is continuing to bring wild weather to the south western Pacific with the main countries of concern being today and eastern Sunday/ Monday. Tonga seems to have escaped major damage and loss of life as the cyclone passed by today.

After causing flooding, bringing down trees, blocking roads, generating treacherous seas and rivers which have claimed three lives in Fiji, Tropical Depression 07F has now moved to the south of the country’s main Islands. For the main centres of Fiji, this has meant a temporary lull in the weather before the arrival of TC Ula in the country’s south eastern islands over the next 24-48 hours.

Source: Fiji Met Service

(Source: US Navy, Joint Typhoon Warning Centre)

Tropical Cyclone Ula – Current situation

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula (968hpa, Category 3) was located about 410km east of or about 450km east-northeast of Ono-i-lau at 1pm today. The cyclone is moving west-southwest at about 23km/hr. Close to its centre, the cyclone is expected to have average winds of 150km/hr and momentary gusts to 205km/hr.

On this track, the cyclone is expected to be located about 200km east of Kabara or about 250km northeast of Ono-i-Lau at 1am tonight and about 125km south-southeast of Kabara or about 75km north-northeast of Ono-i-Lau at 1pm tomorrow. Damaging gale force winds may begin several hours before the cyclone’s centre passes nearby or overhead.

The forecast for Kabara, Ogea, , Namuka, Moce, and Ono-i-Lau: Winds increasing to damaging gale force winds with speeds of 75km/hr and momentary gusts to 100km/hr from Sunday morning. Occasional rain becoming heavy and frequent with squally thunderstorms from tonight. Damaging heavy swells with sea flooding of low lying coastal areas.

(Source: Fiji Met Service)

Impact on Tonga

Throughout Friday and into Saturday, Category 3 Cyclone Ula continued to move through Tonga’s territorial waters, picking up speed and resuming a more westerly course, passing just north of the Vava’u Group (population 14,900) early Saturday morning. This westerly shift likely helped spare Vava’u from the full force of the storm although damage assessments are yet to be completed. At its closest approach, Cyclone Ula passed about 40-50 km north of the Group as a Category 3 Cyclone. As a precaution, the Tongan Prime Minister declared a State of Emergency yesterday for Vava’u and Ha’apai, enabling the Government to move quickly to assess the situation. Damage surveys were expected to start today.

(Source: UNOCHA ROP) The latest information from the Tongan Government:

 No casualties have been reported so far and only minor damage has been identified to several houses, power poles and causeways which have been flooded.  11 Evacuation Centres are operating in the Vava’u Group. Over 392 people have been relocated to evacuation centres where a need has been identified for electricity and water for cooking. (See UNOCHA ROP infographic above)  Electricity supplies have bene interrupted. Prince Ngu hospital still operating using generator.  Both the National and Vava’u Emergency Operations Centres are operating.  No damage to key infrastructure has been reported.  There has been minor damage to root crops and fruit trees including bananas.  The need for any humanitarian response will be decided once impact assessments have been conducted. Needs will be circulated to humanitarian partners by the Tongan Government  The Tongan Navy has pre-fueled boats which are now on standby to take assistance that is needed to Vava’u once seas calm.  Red Cross Vava’u branch have local emergency supplies and the main branch in Tongatapu is on standby with available stocks. The NZ and Australia High Commissions have also shared lists of available stocks with the Tongan Government.

(Sources: Tongan Government, Nadraki Weather)

Forecast impact on Fiji

The updated track for TC Ula takes the system further away from Fiji’s main islands than first expected. The latest forecasts indicate the centre of TC Ula will move over southern Lau close to or just south of Fulaga and Ogea islands and north of Ono-i-Lau tomorrow morning as either a Category 2 or weak Category 3 cyclone. This will bring damaging gale force winds across southern Lau tomorrow morning. Cloud will increase across the eastern and central division of Fiji tonight and tomorrow with showers tending to rain and becoming heavy at times over Lau, Lomaiviti, Kadavu and southeast Viti Levu.

Forecasts continue to indicate that TC Ula will very likely slow down or become near stationary for a day or two as it reaches waters south of Kadavu tomorrow night. As a result, there remains some concern with the longer term impacts of this system if it slows down and heavy rain continues for several days. As we have already seen in recent years, prolonged rain from a slow moving tropical cyclone can be especially devastating. (Source Nadraki Weather)

Heavy Rain-

The Solomon Islands is counting the cost from persistent heavy rain over recent days which caused flooding in some provinces. Three people who went missing during the bad weather have been found dead. The group went missing after setting off in a motorised canoe from Sepi Village on Isabel Province. The Heavy Rain Warning for the Solomons has now been cancelled.

(Sources: Solomon Islands NEOC, Solomon Islands Met Service, Radio New Zealand)

Gale Force Winds & Rain -

Tuvalu is still assessing the damage from gale-force winds and rain which hit the country earlier this week. All islands in the group were pounded on Monday and Tuesday by strong gusts of wind up to 100 kilometres per hour, with roofs blown off houses and many trees uprooted. The National Disaster Coordinator reports that although there was no loss of life, almost 40 houses and 10 shops were damaged, some beyond repair. 30 families had to be evacuated at the height of the storm. The Tuvalu Red Cross is delivering tarpaulins and blankets to approx. 250 people evacuated to 9 emergency shelters in Funafati.

(Sources: Tuvalu Government, Radio NZ, Tuvalu Red Cross)

OCHA ROP/PHT

OCHA ROP is in continued contact with NDMOs/NEOCs in Tonga, Fiji, Samoa, the Solomon Islands and Tuvalu and is providing coordination and information management support as requested. Regular updates are being received from government met services and Nadraki weather, as well as from humanitarian partners across the region.

Reports received from affected countries so far do not indicate significant humanitarian impact or widespread damage. Climate experts say a lack of moisture to drive the system, prevented it from intensifying further as it moved near Tonga, avoiding loss of life. Assessments are yet to be conducted however and these will reveal any gaps in the coming days. Tonga has indicated assessments will determine whether any requests for international assistance are ultimately made. ROP will continue direct engagement with the national authorities.

The current rainfall associated with both TC Ula and TD07F will offer some temporary relief to countries currently experiencing El Nino-related drought. Whether the rainfall is enough to address the rainfall deficit in the longer term however, will need to be assessed once the weather systems have moved on.

OCHA would again like to ask all partners to continue to send through any information they have regarding impacts on the ground in affected countries. Your updates will assist OCHA to filter the most relevant information to ensure concise and timely analysis of the situation.

Please share updates with:

 Danielle Parry at [email protected]  Michael Arunga [email protected]  Sune Gudnitz [email protected]

OCHA expects to call a PHT meeting on Monday once the impacts of TC Ula is clearer.

(Sources: Nadraki, Matangi Tonga, NDMOs/NEOCs)