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Central Asia the Caucasus CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS No. 1(49), 2008 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Journal of Social and Political Studies 1(49) 2008 CA&CC Press® SWEDEN 1 No. 1(49), 2008FOUNDED AND PUBLISHEDCENTRAL ASIA AND BYTHE CAUCASUS INSTITUTE INSTITUTE O OR CENTRAL ASIAN AND STRATEGIC STUDIES O CAUCASIAN STUDIES THE CAUCASUS Registration number: 620720-0459 Registration number: M-770 State Administration for Ministry of Justice of Patents and Registration of Sweden Azerbaijan Republic PUBLISHING HOUSE CA&CC Press®. SWEDEN Registration number: 556699-5964 Journal registration number: 23 614 State Administration for Patents and Registration of Sweden E d i t o r i a l C o u n c i l Eldar Chairman of the Editorial Council ISMAILOV Tel./fax: (994 - 12) 497 12 22 E-mail: [email protected] Murad ESENOV Editor-in-Chief Tel./fax: (46) 920 62016 E-mail: [email protected] Jannatkhan Executive Secretary (Baku, Azerbaijan) EYVAZOV Tel./fax: (994 - 12) 499 11 73 E-mail: [email protected] Timur represents the journal in Kazakhstan (Astana) SHAYMERGENOV Tel./fax: (+7 - 701) 531 61 46 E-mail: [email protected] Leonid represents the journal in Kyrgyzstan (Bishkek) BONDARETS Tel.: (+996 - 312) 65-48-33 E-mail: [email protected] Jamila MAJIDOVA represents the journal in Tajikistan (Dushanbe) Tel.: (992 - 917) 72 81 79 E-mail: [email protected] Farkhad represents the journal in Uzbekistan (Tashkent) TOLIPOV Tel.: (9987-1) 125 43 22 E-mail: [email protected] Aghasi YENOKIAN represents the journal in Armenia (Erevan) Tel.: (374 - 1) 54 10 22 E-mail: [email protected] Ziya KENGERLI represents the journal in Azerbaijan (Baku) Tel.: (+994 50) 3006694 E-mail: [email protected] Guram represents the journal in Georgia (Tbilisi) GOGIASHVILI Tel.: (995 - 32) 96 85 87 E-mail: [email protected] Sun ZHUANGZHI represents the journal in China (Beijing) Tel.: (86) 10-64039088 E-mail: [email protected] Konrad SCHÄFFLER represents the journal in Germany (Munich) Tel.: (49 - 89) 3003132 E-mail: [email protected] Vladimir MESAMED represents the journal in the Middle East (Jerusalem) Tel.: (972 - 2) 5882332 E-mail: [email protected] Irina EGOROVA represents the journal in the Russian Federation (Moscow) Tel.: (7 - 495) 3163146 E-mail: [email protected] Rustem ZHANGUZHIN represents the journal in Ukraine (Kiev) Tel.: (380-44) 524-79-132 E-mail: [email protected] CENTRAL ASIA AND THEE DCAUCASUS I T O R I A L B O A R D No. 1(49), 2008 Giuli ALASANIA Doctor of History, professor, Vice Rector of the International Black Sea University (Georgia) Bülent ARAS Doctor, Chair, Department of International Relations, Fatih University (Turkey) Mariam ARUNOVA Doctor of Political Science, leading research associate, Institute of Oriental Studies, RAS (Russian Federation) Garnik ASATRIAN Doctor of Philology, professor, head of the Department of Iranian Studies, Erevan State University (Armenia) Bakyt BESHIMOV Doctor of History, professor, Vice President, American University-Central Asia (Kyrgyzstan) Ariel COHEN Doctor, leading analyst, The Heritage Foundation, U.S.A. (U.S.A.) William FIERMAN Doctor of Political Science, Professor of Indiana University (U.S.A.) Paul GOBLE Senior Advisor, Voice of America (U.S.A.) Sergei GRETSKY Doctor, Chair of Central Asian Studies, Foreign Service Institute, U.S. Department of State (U.S.A.) Xing GUANGCHENG Doctor of Political Science, professor, Deputy Director of the Institute for East European, Russian and Central Asian Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (China) Alexander IGNATENKO Doctor of Philosophy, specialist in Islamic studies, leading expert of the Institute of Social Systems, Moscow State University, member of the Council for Cooperation with Religious Associations under the Russian Federation President (Russian Federation) Ashurboi IMOMOV Ph.D. (Law), assistant professor, head of the Department of Constitutional Law, Tajik National University (Tajikistan) Lena JONSON Doctor, senior researcher, Swedish Institute of International Affairs (Sweden) Klara KHAFIZOVA Doctor of History, Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies, professor at the International Relations and Foreign Policy Department, Kainar University (Kazakhstan) Hasan KULIEV Doctor of Philosophy, professor, department head, Institute of Philosophy, AS of Azerbaijan (Azerbaijan) Jacob M. LANDAU Professor of Political Science, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (Israel) S. Neil MACFARLANE Professor, Director, Center for International Studies, The University of Oxford (Great Britain) Alexei MALASHENKO Doctor of History, professor, Scholar-in-Residence, Ethnicity and Nation-Building Program Co-Chair, The Carnegie Moscow Center (Russian Federation) Abbas MALEKI Dr., Director General, International Institute for Caspian Studies (Iran) Akira Ph.D., History of Central Asia and the Caucasus, Program Officer, The Sasakawa Peace MATSUNAGA Foundation (Japan) Roger N. McDERMOTT Honorary Senior Research Fellow, Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Kent at Canterbury (UK) Vitaly NAUMKIN Doctor of History, professor, Director, Center for Strategic and International Studies of RF (Russian Federation) Yerengaip OMAROV Professor, Rector of Kainar University, President of the Academy of Natural Sciences, Republic of Kazakhstan (Kazakhstan) Vladimer PAPAVA Doctor of Economics, professor, Corresponding member of the Georgian Academy of Sciences, Senior Fellow of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (Georgia) S. Frederick STARR Professor, Chairman, The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, The Johns Hopkins University (U.S.A.) The materials that appear in the journal do not necessarily reflect the Editorial Board and the Editors’ opinion Editorial Office: CA&CC Press AB Hubertusstigen 9. 97455 Luleå SWEDEN WEB ADDRESS: http://www.ca-c.org © Central Asia and the Caucasus, 2008 © CA&CC Press®, 3 2008 No. 1(49), 2008 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS Journal of Social and Political Studies No. 1(49), 2008 IN THIS ISSUE: ELECTIONS AND POWER Lasha ON THE RESULTS OF Tchantouridze. THE SPECIAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN GEORGIA ...................................................................... 7 NATION-BUILDING Rico MANAGING DISSENT, Isaacs. LIMITING RISK AND CONSOLIDATING POWER: THE PROCESSES AND RESULTS OF CONSTITUTIONAL REFORM IN KAZAKHSTAN .................................................................... 16 REGIONAL CENTERS OF POWER AND THEIR POLICY IN CENTRAL EURASIA Noor THE REGIONAL CENTERS OF POWER: Omarov, IS THERE A CONFLICT OF INTERESTS, Esen IDEOLOGICAL COOPERATION, Usubaliev. OR A CONFLICT OF STRATEGIES AMONG THEM IN CENTRAL ASIA? ...................................... 26 4 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS No. 1(49), 2008 Huseyn IRAN AND N. Najafov. THE SOUTHERN CAUCASUS ............................................. 35 Pavel REGIONAL CENTERS OF POWER AND Varbanets. THEIR EURASIAN POLITICS (Rivalry in the Islamic East— The Turkish Vector) ................................................................ 43 Guli TURKEY’S NEW FOREIGN Yuldasheva. POLICY LANDMARKS AND CENTRAL ASIA ........................... 51 Irina WILL INDIA BECOME Komissina. A FULL-FLEDGED PARTICIPANT IN THE BIG GAME IN CENTRAL ASIA? ................................... 57 Alexander THE TEHRAN SUMMIT, Lukoianov. OR THE RUSSIAN PRESIDENT’S VISIT TO IRAN ........................................................................... 69 HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL: REGIONAL POLITICS Larisa PROBLEMS OF THE JOINT USE OF Sidorova. TRANSBOUNDARY WATER RESOURCES IN CENTRAL ASIA ....................................................... 78 Timur TAJIKISTAN ENERGY SECTOR: Valamat-Zade. PRESENT AND NEAR FUTURE ...................................... 89 REGIONAL POLITICS Marat THE REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN AND Naribaev. THE ECONOMIC COOPERATION ORGANIZATION: PRESENT STATE AND FUTURE COOPERATION .................... 98 Murat Laumulin, KAZAKHSTAN AND RUSSIA: Mukhtar RELATIONS AS PART OF RUSSIA’S FOREIGN Shaken. POLICY STRATEGY ................................................................... 112 Kosimsho TAJIK-AFGHAN INTERRELATIONS TODAY AND Iskandarov. THEIR FUTURE PROSPECTS ...................................... 124 5 No. 1(49), 2008 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS RELIGION IN SOCIETY Geoffrey PROMOTING PROSPERITY: F. Gresh. THE ISLAMIC DEVELOPMENT BANK AND THE RISE OF ISLAMIC BANKING AND FINANCE IN CENTRAL ASIA ........................................ 135 Shukhrat ISLAM AND THE POLITICAL AND Yovkochev. SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT MODEL OF THE MUSLIM STATES ...................................... 146 MIGRATION AND ETHNIC RELATIONS Mamuka GEORGIA’S ETHNIC HISTORY AND Komakhia. THE PRESENT MIGRATION PROCESSES .............................. 154 Elena CHINESE MIGRATION TO KAZAKHSTAN: Sadovskaya. CAUSES, KEY TRENDS, AND PROSPECTS ......................... 160 FOR YOUR INFORMATION The Special Feature section in the next issue will discuss: n The GUAM Organization for Democracy and Economic Development in Regional and International Dimensions n Central Eurasia: Politics Today n Energy Policy and Energy Projects in Central Eurasia 6 CENTRAL ASIA AND THE CAUCASUS No. 1(49), 2008 ELECTIONS AND POWER ON THE RESULTS OF THE SPECIAL PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN GEORGIA Lasha TCHANTOURIDZE Ph.D., Research Associate and Adjunct Professor, Center for Defense and Security Studies, University of Manitoba (Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada) I n t r o d u c t i o n he 5 January, 2008 snap poll was the first the current outcome is, indeed, a result of the noted
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