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California Emissions Scheme Oversupplied by More Than Expected

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California Emissions Scheme Oversupplied by More Than Expected FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE CONTACT Noemi Glickman Bloomberg New Energy Finance [email protected] CALIFORNIA EMISSIONS SCHEME OVERSUPPLIED BY MORE THAN EXPECTED Analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance shows that emissions in the California cap-and-trade scheme are lower than top-line estimates suggest New York, 19 November 2013 – On 4 November, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) released CO2 emissions data for the entities covered by the California Cap-and-Trade Program relating to 2012. The raw data released by CARB show that total emissions reported under California’s mandatory reporting rules rose by 2% between 2011 and 2012. Estimates by Bloomberg New Energy Finance, adjusted for elements of double-counting in CARB’s raw data, are that like-for-like emissions of CO2 actually remained flat at 350.9m metric tons over the two years. Strikingly, the levels stayed flat despite turmoil in the state’s power sector, which saw emissions surge by 35%. This conclusion means that the California programme is likely to run a greater surplus over the early years than many have expected. According to BNEF calculations, emissions in the California system last year came in 7% below the effective cap in 2015 (the first year of the scheme’s ‘broad scope’ coverage, including fuel sales to small emitters); relative to the cap, emissions are not expected go into deficit on an annual basis until 2020. On a cumulative basis and excluding any link to Quebec, the scheme will be “long” until 2027. Double counting in the raw data arises for several reasons, the most important of which is how emissions are reported for natural gas suppliers and for gas burned in power generation and other uses. CARB acknowledges this issue; its spreadsheet of 2012 emissions data contains several important adjustments to the raw data, including rectification of the double counting associated with natural gas utility sales to other covered entities. In the case of 2011, however, CARB’s dataset does not tackle this issue. BNEF’s calculations include an adjustment to address double counting in the 2011 data to make possible like-for-like, inter-year comparisons. The BNEF calculations also include changes to CARB’s adjusted 2012 data – namely, up-to-date treatment of emissions associated with out-of-state power and modifications to reflect expected changes to the scope of the scheme – such that CARB’s adjusted tally of ‘covered emissions’ in 2012 (353.8Mt) differs slightly from BNEF’s tally (350.9Mt). “Flat or falling emissions show that the Californian carbon market will remain in a state of substantial oversupply throughout the decade,” said William Nelson, senior analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “A link with Quebec will trim this oversupply, as the Quebec scheme will be in deficit much earlier, but its smaller size means the California scheme will still be in surplus for many years.” Although emissions remained broadly constant from 2011 to 2012, those at a sector level changed considerably. According to BNEF analysis of the data released, emissions from the power sector increased by 35% between 2011 and 2012 – mostly as a result of the need to use more gas-fired generation to make up for a significant drop in hydro-electricic output and to cover the loss of the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS). This power sector increase was offset by a 4.1% fall in emissions from transport fuels and a 9% decline in emissions from power imported into the state. Imported power had lower emissions due to greater imports of power from gas-fired generating stations and reduced imports from the six coal-fired facilities supplying California with electricity in neighboring states. The figures presented in the Note form part of Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s regular analysis of the California Cap-and-Trade Program. This is available to clients on a subscription basis. For more information on this service contact us at [email protected] or on +1 212 617 4050. ABOUT BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) is the definitive source of insight, data and news on the transformation of the energy sector. BNEF has staff of more than 200, based in London, New York, Beijing, Hong Kong, New Delhi, Singapore, Sydney, Tokyo, Cape Town, São Paulo, Washington D.C., San Francisco, Munich and Zurich. BNEF Insight Services provide financial, economic and policy analysis in the following industries and markets: advanced transportation, bioenergy, carbon capture and storage, carbon markets, digital energy, energy efficiency, energy storage, gas, geothermal, hydro & marine, nuclear, power markets, REC markets, solar, water and wind. BNEF’s Industry Intelligence Service provides access to the world’s most comprehensive database of assets, investments, companies and equipment in the same sectors. The BNEF News Service is the leading global news service focusing on finance, policy and economics for the same sectors. The group also undertakes custom research on behalf of clients and runs senior-level networking events, including the annual BNEF Summit, the premier event on the future of the energy industry. New Energy Finance Limited was acquired by Bloomberg L.P. in December 2009, and its services and products are now owned and distributed by Bloomberg Finance L.P., except that Bloomberg L.P. and its subsidiaries distribute these products in Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan, and Korea. For more information on Bloomberg New Energy Finance: http://about.bnef.com ABOUT BLOOMBERG Bloomberg is the world’s most trusted source of information for businesses and professionals. Bloomberg combines innovative technology with unmatched analytic, data, news, display and distribution capabilities, to deliver critical information via the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL® service and Multimedia platforms. Bloomberg's media services cover the world with more than 2,300 news and Multimedia professionals at 146 bureaus in 72 countries. The BLOOMBERG TELEVISION® 24-hour network reaches more than 240 million homes. BLOOMBERG RADIO® services broadcast via Sirius XM Radio and 1worldspace™ satellite radio globally and on WBBR 1130AM in New York. BLOOMBERG MARKETS® magazine, Bloomberg Businessweek magazine and the BLOOMBERG.COM® Web site provide news and insight to business leaders and financial professionals. For more information, please visit http://www.bloomberg.com. The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service and data products are owned and distributed by Bloomberg Finance L.P. (BFLP) except that Bloomberg L.P. and its subsidiaries (BLP) distribute these products in Argentina, Bermuda, China, India, Japan and Korea. 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