Beleidsplan

Watershed Wide Ecosystem Restoration The Accelerator to Fix Climate Change

September 2017

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Stichting The Weather Makers Oranje Nassaulaan 16-3, 5211 AX ’s-Hertogenbosch The Netherlands P: +31 (0) 6 400 55 798 theweathermakers.nl KvK: 69450544

Document title: Watershed Wide Ecosystem Restoration

Document subtitle: The Accelerator to Fix Climate Change

Document type: Beleidsplan

Date: September 2017

FAO: Belastingdienst aanvraag ANBI status

Disclaimer

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“Pro-Active Adaptive Realization is a major theoretical advance in immediately implementing what we know to be best practices in regulating the hydrological cycle and rapidly sequestrating carbon. The Sinai has been identified as the place on Earth whose restoration will have the largest impact on ecological, social, economic and security issues. It is also of a size and feasibility where positive impact is possible to insure to a large extent.”

John D. Liu, Chinese American film-maker and ecologist

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Table of Contents Summary...... 5 1 The Weather Makers ...... 6 2 Why carbon sequestration and restoration of hydrological cycles? ...... 7 2.1 Amplifying the Greenhouse Effect...... 7 2.2 CO2 Concentration and Global Temperature Equilibrium...... 8 2.3 Carbon Sequestration ...... 8 2.4 Land Degradation Hydrological Cycles...... 9 2.5 Restoration of Hydrological Cycles ...... 11 3 Pro-Active Adaptive Realization & the Green Economy ...... 14 3.1 Situation Analysis in the Netherlands...... 14 3.2 Pro-Active Adaptive Realisation...... 15 3.2.1 General...... 15 3.2.2 Continuous Self-Learning Loop ...... 16 3.2.3 Monitoring Data Management ...... 17 3.2.4 Communication...... 18 3.3 PAAR as a Contractual Framework ...... 18 3.4 Resource Based Dredging ...... 19 4 Project Case ...... 20 4.1 Introduction ...... 20 4.2 Project Case: Regreening the Sinai ...... 20

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Summary Watershed wide ecosystem restoration is the solution for climate change. Pro-Active Adaptive Realisation facilitates that ecosystem function becomes the contractual basis for investments. It creates a platform for the green economy and enables the improvement of the productivity of our ecosystems and well-being of planet earth.

Climate change is the key driver of many of the world’s large problems and crises of today. Climate change is caused by destroyed ecosystems, degraded land and broken hydrological cycles in combination with the burning of fossil fuels that led to an excess of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases CO2 and water vapour have the largest contribution to global warming and extreme weather events (more than 75%).

Climate change can be ‘solved’ by worldwide restoration of ecosystems in conjunction with the restoration of hydrological cycles. This will sequestrate carbon and decrease the amount of water vapour in the higher atmosphere. Ecosystem function should be restored watershed wide in order to be able to feed the watershed with organic matter and water. This will boost organic productivity in the watershed and make a sustainable society possible.

Pro-Active Adaptive Realisation is a powerful tool in order to design and execute ecosystem restoration projects. The methodology consists of continuously monitoring the actual results, even during construction, and validate/ calibrate the design and forecasts. Working with a vision and being flexible and adaptive to new opportunities. Pro-Active Adaptive Realisation is a methodology to: - provide a continuous self-learning loop for all parties involved and improving engineering and forecasting. - overcome complexity of engineering and improve collective knowledge and communication - facilitate an early start of projects and provide a flexible design to seek for optimisations

Infrastructural projects can perfectly be combined with ecosystem restoration in an opportunity driven contract with the use of Pro-Active Adaptive Realisation. Risks and benefits can be shared and controlled by all parties involved. With Pro-Active Adaptive Realisation each project can be valued in relation to climatic change. Benefits can be valued in terms of carbon sequestration and infiltration of water. This paves the way for a green economy, whereby consortiums and collaborations can be created between the infrastructure industry, the farming and food industry, the energy industry, investors and governments.

What’s in it for the Netherlands? It is expected that ecosystem restoration will become a large global industry. Watershed wide ecosystem restoration can seriously mitigate climate change. The Netherlands has all required expertise in-house, such as knowledge institutes, engineers and contractors, and can therefore play a major role in this growing industry. However, we should invest in an holistic approach. The Weather Makers can create an innovative platform with Pro-Active Adaptive Realization to facilitate this approach.

To kick-start ecosystem restoration on a global scale, we request funds for a comprehensive PEER review on the Sinai project. The Sinai is a perfect test case, because it is a relatively small watershed on a global scale and there are unique opportunities in restoring Lake Bardawil first with direct benefits appearing on a short term. The dredged materials have remarkable fertile sediments to benefit the regreening of the northern Sinai peninsula on a longer term.

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1 The Weather Makers

The impact of climate change is enormous. It leads to flood risks, food and water shortage and extreme weather events. Climate change is the key driver of many of the world’s largest problems and crises of today. Lack of safety, lack of future perspective and lack of resources lead to poverty, inequality, political instability and war. The cause of the current climate problems is the excess of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and broken hydrological cycles, which are a result of dysfunctional ecosystems. Large scale ecosystem restoration will restore the amount of greenhouse gases to safe levels in the atmosphere.

The Weather Makers are a group of passionate and pioneering engineers with a background in coastal engineering and multidisciplinary projects. Social awareness inspired them to use their technical knowledge, skills and professional network in hydraulics, morphology, meteorology, ecology, hydrology and economy to start The Weather Makers and act against the climate issues the world is confronting today.

The Weather Makers have the ultimate mission to stop climate change by the restoration of ecosystems (regreening degraded areas) and bring the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere back to safe levels. Greenhouse gases can be stored in ecosystems and the soil in a natural way by photosynthesis. This will enrich the fertility and productivity of the soil and will feed the ecosystems in return. For us an ecosystem consist of more than only the biological component, we see human as a part of an ecosystem. Men has to help recovering it, but will also benefit from it, in many ways.

In order to restore and balance earth’s climate, the Weather Makers will focus on carbon sequestration and water infiltration1 by:

(i) Watershed wide ecosystem restoration in order to restore hydrological cycles. (ii) Projects are designed and executed with Pro-Active Adaptive Realization integrated into a contractual framework and paving the way for a Green Economy. (iii) Resource based dredging, the building blocks for accelerating the restoration of degraded land.

By uniquely connecting different fields of expertise, the Weather Makers found a way to upscale and accelerate the restoration of our planet and create social, natural and financial balance. We achieve our mission by selecting an approach where knowledge will rapidly grow and will create healthy business cases, making it also commercially feasible and attractive to invest and participate in projects to restore our planet.

“Ours is the first generation with the potential to end poverty, and the last to be able to act to avoid the worst effects of climate change”

Ban Ki Moon, UN Secretary

1 Carbon dioxide and water vapour are both greenhouse gases which have the largest contribution to the greenhouse effect

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2 Why carbon sequestration and restoration of hydrological cycles?

2.1 Amplifying the Greenhouse Effect Carbon dioxide (CO2) and water vapour are greenhouse gases that have the largest contribution to the greenhouse effect (varying locally between 45% - 98% of the total contribution). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is increased by external forces, such as burned fossil fuels, but the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere is a function of the temperature. Water vapour is brought into the atmosphere via evaporation and the rate depends on the temperature of the surface water and air. In case additional water is added to the atmosphere, it condenses and within a short period of time it returns to the earth’s surface by precipitation (rain or snow). Similarly, if somehow water vapour is captured from the atmosphere, evaporation would restore water vapour levels to 'normal levels' in a relatively short time.

Now comes the tricky part: water vapour in the atmosphere causes a very significant amplifying effect in the climate system, called a “positive” feedback loop. In case temperatures rise, evaporation increases and more water vapour accumulates in the atmosphere. With water vapour massively contributing to the greenhouse effect, the temperatures rise further and the evaporation increases again. This means that increased temperatures caused by the excess of CO2 is being amplified by the additional evaporation of water.

Note that next to CO2 also a temperature increase due to the degradation of land or the melting of ice (less reflection of sunlight) are amplified by the effect of increased evaporation and therefore water vapour rates. Recent studies show that the melting of pole ice goes faster than expected due to the effect that “white” ice and snow reflects a lot of heat from the sun.

Some of the negative effects of climate change are shown in Figure 2-1.

Figure 2-1 – Negative effects from climate change [Source: EPA.gov]

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2.2 CO2 Concentration and Global Temperature Equilibrium Millions of years of long term climate data show that there is a natural balance between the level of CO2 in the atmosphere and the global temperature2. In times when the CO2 concentration was high, also the global average temperature was high. The earth always finds a balance, however these processes are very slow. The reason for that is the regulating works of the oceans. It takes very long for oceans to heat up and this slows a global warming (or cooling) process down.

At this moment we have exceeded the level of CO2, and related temperature and sea level, that occurred in pre-industrial times by about 40%. Long term climate data show that the current concentration of greenhouse gases equals a global temperature of about 17 °C warmer than today. The related global sea level would in that case become about 23 m higher than today. The impacts will be far worse than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects if one looks at time horizon of millenniums.

Thus the actual impact of the high concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are much worse than currently seen in global warming. It is concluded that CO2 needs to be reduced rapidly from today’s dangerous levels of 400 parts per million (ppm) to pre-industrial levels of around 260 ppm. This can be done with the restoration of ecosystems. Carbon will be sequestrated with photosynthesis. Ecosystem restoration in combination with the restoration of hydrological cycles will be most effective. This will be described in the following paragraphs.

2.3 Carbon Sequestration There is a lot of effort in the world on the development of renewable energies and therefore emission reduction, but next to that there should be a focus on the sequestration of CO2. Emission reductions alone are not sufficient to remove the excess of CO2 and prevent long term impacts. The excess of CO2 can best be reduced to safe levels by increasing natural sinks (carbon capture), of which the largest is soil carbon, nearly 5 times larger than the biosphere carbon.

The most efficient way of achieving carbon capture and the long-term storage of atmospheric CO2 in the soils is relatively simple, invest in organic live. Organic live captures (by photosynthesis) and breaks down carbon dioxide and feeds the soils with carbon rich organic matter. This will boost soil fertility and therefor productivity. The soil support about 99% of all biospheres, provides our food and regulates our atmosphere, climate and water. By investing in the soil we can stop climate change and boost food and water productivity. Carbon sequestration can therefore become far more economically attractive than emission reduction if one takes into account the benefits resulting from better functioning ecosystems. Everyone can contribute on every scale.

Thus by returning the excess of CO2 from where it is most dangerous (in the atmosphere) to where it is most stable and provides the greatest ecosystem benefits (the soil) the climate can stabilize.

2 E.J. Rohling 2008

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Figure 2-2 – Carbon cycle

While all soils can be managed to greatly increase soil carbon, there are critical soil leverage points that will be the most effective to reverse global climate change, namely increasing the most carbon rich soils of all: wetlands.

The wetland soils can be up to pure organic matter, because lack of oxygen prevents organic matter decomposition. Wetlands contain half of all soil carbon, and half of that is in marine wetlands, which occupy only about 1% of the Earth’s surface, but deposit about half of all organic matter in the entire ocean. Marine wetland soils have more carbon than the atmosphere, but are being rapidly destroyed3.

It is concluded that an increase in marine wetlands coverage on a global scale have a relatively large carbon sequestration potential. Resource based dredging has therefor extremely beneficial opportunities.

2.4 Land Degradation Hydrological Cycles In the previous paragraphs is explained that CO2 and water vapour are the two greenhouse gases that have the largest contribution to the greenhouse effect. It is concluded that we need to invest in organic life and restore CO2 into the soil by photosynthesis: carbon sequestration.

Next to the excess of carbon emissions by burning fossil fuels, land degradation leading to desertification has a very negative impact on the climate as well. Mankind is on a large scale destroying landscapes (ecosystems), ultimately leading to degraded soils with limited carbon content. Figure 2-3 presents the desertification of the world in 1995 and a prediction for 2025.

3 Source: World Soil Day, presentation Thomas Goreau: https://youtu.be/0JZUKrw5Vac

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Figure 2-3 – Carbon cycle [Source: UNEP Grid Arendal]

Degraded soils, or desert/arid areas, have also limited retention capacity of water. Lack of water makes the areas heat up and contribute to warming our planet.

An additional effect of desertification is that hydrological cycles are not properly functioning anymore. The hydrological cycle of a defined area is a balance between inputs of water with precipitation and upstream drainage, outputs as evaporation and drainage downstream or deep into the ground, and any internal storage that may occur because of imbalances of the inputs and outputs. The hydrological cycle is usually depicted on a global scale. However, the hydrologic cycle operates at many scales, from the hydrological cycle of the planet to the hydrological cycle of a person's back yard. Generally the management of water resources are commonly assessed as the hydrologic cycle of watersheds. A watershed is an area of land where all the water that falls on it, will drain to a body of surface water. The watershed is like a large bowl that collects water and delivers it to the watershed outlet, which can be a stream or river on a small scale or at an ocean on a global scale, see Figure 2-4.

Figure 2-4 – Main global watersheds [Source: UN]

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Broken watersheds, or broken hydrological cycles, lead to relatively high concentrations of water vapour in the upper zones of the atmosphere. That is a danger, because water vapour higher up in the atmosphere contributes more to the greenhouse effect. Next to that, it is believed that water vapour higher in the atmosphere cause more extreme weather events. Instead of being part of a healthy hydrological cycle in balance with an ecosystem, water is “lost” in arid areas and causes extreme weather elsewhere on the planet.

2.5 Restoration of Hydrological Cycles Mankind should focus on land restoration and the creation of marine wetlands to enhance carbon sequestration. The wetlands boost the biomass of marine life and store the CO2 most effectively. Increasing canopy on a large scale on the planet will sequestrate vast amounts of carbon as well, but moreover, will eventually restore hydrological cycles and decrease the concentration of water vapour in the atmosphere. Regreening of deserts and restoring the ecosystems in these places will have the largest contribution and can perfectly be combined with the creation of wetlands.

Restoration of a hydrological cycle in a watershed starts with the infiltration of water by increasing the retention capacity of the soil, thus retaining all rainfall available moisture in the soils. It should start at the higher areas, so up hill. This can for example be done by constructing terraces, see Figure 2-5, but there are many more techniques to enhance penetrating of water in the soil.

Figure 2-5 – Terraces at the Loess plateau to retain water before and after [Images by Yan Jinmin]

The next step would be to develop canopy and create micro climates to start natural water capturing by biomass (dew), potentially the soils are temporarily boosted with organic matter. In order to increase the amount of water in combination with the retention of current rain fall, for example fog nets can be placed in the first period. Depending on the location, fog nets can work impressively well to increase the amount of water with litres of water per square meter per day, even in the desert. Bigger and longer roots will loosen up the soil, which makes it easier to infiltrate more water. It will trigger canopy to develop quickly and micro climates will start to pop up. It will further reduce the temperature and increase the capturing of water via condensation and fog capturing.

These regreening works should focus on higher elevated areas, because then they will feed lower lying areas in the watershed. Next to that, fog nets work best on a certain elevation depending on

05 September 2017 11 Beleidsplan the watershed. Transpiration from vegetation will increase during the process of sequestration of carbon (photosynthesis). The plants control their temperature by transpiration of water. This will boost the positive feedback loop and so water can be recycled 3 to 4 time in a proper functioning watershed. Groundwater tables will rise and slowly fresh water streams will start to pop up in the watershed area. Besides surface waters, water will flow in shallow aquifers and at lower locations springs will originate where the regreening can quickly start as well.

To increase the amount of water in the hydrological cycle of the water shed, the creation of wetlands can support. Because evaporation can be increased by the construction of wetlands due to shallow areas. The increased evaporation will return as precipitation.

The restoration of a hydrological cycle in a watershed is presented in an infographic in Figure 2-6.

“Water begets water, and vegetation is the Midwife”

Dr. Millán Millán, Climate Expert

05 September 2017 12 Beleidsplan [Source: Daniel Halsley] [Source: greening a watershedgreening a - and re the hydrological cycle hydrological the storing Re – 6 - 2 Figure

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3 Pro-Active Adaptive Realization & the Green Economy

3.1 Situation Analysis in the Netherlands The Dutch Government is fully aware that climate change is a threat to the Netherlands. Different topics within the ministries demonstrate that sustainable policies and climate related actions are undertaken. In general those are: - Renewable Energy (Duurzame Energie); - Flood risk safety (Waterveiligheid, Deltawet); - Environment and sustainable agriculture (Natuur, milieu en duurzame landbouw).

However, it seems to be a scattered approach and the individual actions are being confronted with many issues, such as resistance from local residents or communities, the so called NIMBY effect (Not In My BackYard). For example renewable energy is often foreseen in the construction of high wind turbines which negatively impact nearby living people due to noise, shadow, spoiled view, etc. Flood risk safety can be managed by higher dikes or more room for retention areas, but sometimes forcing people to move or dispossess land. Environmental regreening efforts often struggle with agricultural interests and sustainable agriculture has had difficulty to become competitive.

The Weather Makers believe that renewable energy, flood risk management and the environment can be combined in an holistic approach to achieve the same objective: to act against climate change, restore ecosystems and benefit from a more fertile, safe and healthy environment. The technology for an holistic approach is available, we should start using it. By combing the three policies we are able to start up a green economy where the local community can much better participate and with Pro-Active Adaptive Realization also relatively small size projects can contribute to meet the Paris goals.

Figure 3-1 – Oostvaardersplassen: a perfect example of a constructed wetland in the Netherlands

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The Weather Makers also observe another opportunity for the Netherlands: use the unique physical properties of the Netherlands and become a major carbon sink. As mentioned in paragraph 2.3, wetlands contain half of all soil carbon, and half of that is in marine wetlands. The Netherlands, being a delta and containing a lot of wetlands, have the opportunity to be the carbon sink of Europe and substantially participate in global carbon sequestration.

We can combine the strength of “inhouse” research organisations like Deltares, KNMI, Wageningen, Universities and others to generate a vision how to achieve an overall solution to restore our environment. Combining different policy topics will provide better overall results. On top of that the Netherlands have a great history and experience in reshaping and constructing the environment. Knowledge and expertise is present within Dutch engineering, contracting and development companies. Regreening and restoring ecosystems can become a major export product.

As described in the previous chapter, we need to invest in organic life and our liveable soils. The best way to make that attractive is to properly value nature. In case the Netherlands value their environment by relating it to carbon sequestration and infiltration of water (and not only emission reduction and financial benefits), this may even become a way to finance all of our infrastructural projects. The Weather Makers believe in an opportunity driven contractual framework which can be created for infrastructural projects. When carbon sequestration and infiltration of water is contractually measured and valued in infrastructure projects biodiversity and organic life becomes an opportunity instead of being a non-economic calculation and a cost as is now the case.

The required knowledge and expertise is available in the Netherlands. We are able to adopt a holistic approach to innovatively act against climate change. The Netherlands can have a positive influence helping to inspire the world to meet the goals of the Paris Accord.

The Weather Makers' approach is innovative by integrating Pro-Active Adaptive Realization in a contractual framework.

3.2 Pro-Active Adaptive Realisation

3.2.1 General Pro-Active Adaptive Management systems are becoming more and more common to apply in infrastructural projects. It is a tool to manage the negative effects of execution and optimize planning and costs. This makes it possible to design and plan construction operations to ensure that they result in a minimal threat of the environment, whilst maintaining overall efficiency of the works. In order to effectively prevent negative impacts and allow for quick response, the system includes real-time field data gathering. In the core, these systems are following the three steps as presented in Figure 3-2.

Forecasting

Monitoring Execution

Figure 3-2 – Principle of pro-active management systems

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Pro-Active Adaptive Realization (PAAR) is a similar system, but it will go one step further. In the pro- active adaptive management systems described above, the focus is especially on managing the construction phase, or the impacts of construction. With PAAR we create a continuous learning loop during the full duration of a project (or multiple projects), by extensive monitoring and observations and making the data available to all stakeholders. This is different from traditional, reactive environmental management and assessments used prior to execution. These approaches do not fully harness the power of the models these days by advances in computing power and remote sensing techniques.

PAAR does not stop after design and construction, but can continue as long as required. The benefits are an early start of construction, the fact that long term prediction can be checked and improved, maintenance work can be optimized and there is a continuous collection of knowledge and information which can be applied in future phases of the project and used for new developments. Also the game engine can be used for educational purposes to able to connect the local community on a project. In Figure 3-3 the PAAR system is being presented as a flow chart.

Engineering

Validation Forecast Calibration modelling

Pro-Active Monitoring Prediction Decision Making

Method Measurements Statements

Realisation

Figure 3-3 – Principle of Pro-Active Adaptive Realization

The flow chart exists of five boxes. The engineering in the top is prepared for any given project with the prediction of certain outcomes. Based on the complex design realisation (or execution) will start. Realized activities are directly monitored and used for validation and calibration of the engineering. If required the design can be altered, execution can be adjusted and prediction will improve. Monitoring data shall become open source, accessible for all partners and stakeholders involved. Making the monitoring data open source, the achieved results or benefits can become part of a contractual framework.

It is clear that without an intervention the outcomes are more and more predictable and potentially catastrophic. This suggests that taking immediate action that we know will have positive effects and then continuously monitoring and adapting the outcome is the most effective path open for Dutch, for European and for Global efforts as this particular time.

3.2.2 Continuous Self-Learning Loop The objectives of restoration projects ask for a holistic engineering perspective. Predicting the amount of carbon sequestration is subject to many parameters which makes engineering relatively complex. With a holistic engineering approach we intent to zoom out and focus on the baseline parameters and larger processes. We try to find a balance in a combination between (sophisticated) numerical modelling and straightforward (empirical) relations. This will be backed-up by monitoring

05 September 2017 16 Beleidsplan the results during execution which will be used to validate and calibrate our models and design. The Weather Makers will seek for partnership with renown expert organization and institutes in the field of engineering.

When the current situation is fully defined and the engineering including the first predictions are completed, method statements can be compiled and realisation can start. When execution is taken place the impact (or results) are directly monitored. The monitoring will provide valuable data which is used to upgrade, improve, calibrate and validate the modelling engine. Figure 3-3 shows that our modelling engine is part of a continuous self-learning loop. During a project the loop is repeated, this may last for many years. It may also be the case that a run through the loop may skip “realisation” and purely predictions are updated based on new monitoring results.

This pro-active real-time approach significantly increases the potential of ecological growth and ecosystem function, and enables supervision at the sensitive receptors and provides a learning area of complex natural systems. This type of approach allows a flexible approach, but has its focus at the optimum end result. In the construction sector this type of designing is also successfully implemented and has proven to reduce not only the design cost, but also the overall costs of projects. By having less complicated models we can next to parametric also statistically validate and calibrate the models, due to this higher accuracies will be achieved. Without the need of having to fully understand natural complexity from the beginning.

Within a project all parties will have access to data and are able to learn from the continuous loop created, refer to Figure 3-4.

Research & Development

Clients Engineers Users Consultants

Contractors

Figure 3-4 – All parties will take advantage of the created continuous self-learning loop with PAAR

3.2.3 Monitoring Data Management A reliable data management system will be set up to ensure safe, centralized and easy accessibility of all monitoring data. This data will be open source. All stakeholders can derive the data they require themselves for further processing.

Data will be stored in a post-blockchain4 system called IOTA. This system has lower transaction costs and is faster than regular blockchains. Data will be further processed as georeferenced data on the globe in PYXIS. This system is setup in such way that it is infinitely scalable.

4 A blockchain is a decentralized system that is used to record transactions across many computers so that the record cannot be altered retroactively without the alteration of all subsequent blocks and the collusion of the network. The result is that the data is continuously shared and updates are visible for everyone at the same time from every location in the network. Historical transaction cannot be changed or removed, only new transactions can be included. This allows the

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Monitoring sensors and instruments will communicate with our data management system using LoRa (Long Range Low Power). This is a type of wireless telecommunication wide area network designed to allow long range communications at a low bit rate among objects, such as sensors, operated on a battery. The low power, low bit rate and intended use distinguish this type of network from a wireless WAN that is designed to connect users or businesses, and carry more data, using more power.

3.2.4 Communication In order to successfully fight climate change, we see education being an important part of our work. Projects can inspire people and will contribute to the world’s transition to functional ecosystems. Education and communication can take place via lectures, web applications, etc., but we will also use advance virtual reality visualizations techniques connected to our modelling engine.

3.3 PAAR as a Contractual Framework Sequestration of carbon and infiltration of water can be the basis of all new infrastructure to be constructed and can be included in an opportunity driven joint venture contract. Not the polluter pays, but the cleaner gets rewarded. The sequestration of carbon and infiltration of water can be connected to the reduction of greenhouse gases (carbon credits). Carbon rich soil will be much more productive. Healthy ecosystems will generate 25-40% surplus of biomass = harvestable products.

Any given project will have a joint venture that exists of founders, co-founders and multiple partners that take part in the developing, organization, financing and benefits of the project. The local government is a key member of the joint venture as the Owner’s party. The local community, local ecology and biosphere are the first consumers of the benefits of the project. At the moment of abundance the international community comes in play to generate trade.

The combination of Pro-Active Adaptive Realization with a shared database will enable overview and direction while connecting funds to carbon sequestration. The joint venture should therefore attract (international) funds through organizations (pension funds, companies, governments, NGO’s etc.) that have an interest in reducing their carbon emissions and improve their effort on climate change. The yield in the trade of these carbon sequestration credits will generate an extra benefit for investors. Replacing the carbon emission rights towards carbon credits (investment in a functional ecosystem), this should make them climate natural straight away. They now have more time to innovate their normal production methods to reduce their emissions. The investment in ecosystem function will give them the right to use sustainable resources from the area and also opens up a new market when a complete new society will be rebuild here.

Restoration projects are long term projects. Ecosystems need time to come to flourish. Governments should play a role in reducing risks for investors by investing or providing grants. It will enable pioneer investors with a long term vision to invest and making worldwide ecosystem restoration projects feasible. To conclude, the whole economy can participate in projects that generate carbon sequestration, however we see an additional opportunity for the dredging industry as described in the next paragraph.

participants to verify and audit transactions inexpensively. They are authenticated by mass collaboration powered by collective self-interests. The result is a robust workflow where participants' uncertainty regarding data security is marginal.

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3.4 Resource Based Dredging Dredging is the excavation of materials underwater and dispose those materials to a certain location. Usually the objective of dredging is to deepen, widen or maintain rivers, channels, harbours and/or to create land, reinforce the coast or to mine certain materials. It is an industry that is capable of moving large quantities of soil and reshape the earth on a scale visible from space. It is also the industry that grew in line with the developments of the world: the industrial revolution, the availability of steel, the discovery of oil, the urbanization, etc. These events led to an increase of trade and transport: bigger ships required bigger ports and channels and larger economic zones at the coast, so more and larger dredging vessels were constructed.

Nowadays the world stands for a new global challenge: stop negative human interference in climate change. The Weather Makers found a way to deploy the mature dredging industry in large scale ecosystem restoration with the objectives of carbon sequestration and the restoration of hydrological cycles. The Weather Makers will engineer and develop dredging projects in combination with regreening activities to achieve our objectives and we call this Resource Based Dredging. The activities in relation to our objectives are schematically presented in Table 3-1.

Table 3-1 – Schematic overview of Resource Based Dredging

Activities Sub-activities Objectives Benefits Create wetlands, saltmarshes, Carbon sequestration Flood Dredge the coast, deltas, improve the environment for Kick-start the protection lagoons, inlets, estuaries marine ecosystems hydrological cycle Food security Reinforce the coast and production

Near shore Near Reuse of granular materials Improve the environment for Carbon sequestration Fresh water marine ecosystems production Reuse of materials with less Create dams and terraces (in Improved living Infiltration of water impermeability (silt, clay, etc. combination with fog nets) conditions with grain size <63µm) Carbon sequestration Renewable Fertilize soils for regreening Infiltration of water energy Carbon sequestration Tourism Reuse of organic material Kick-start the Biodiversity shore Algae production hydrological cycle (cloud Jobs and On trigger formers) income Future Diversified industries at the Salt production perspective Carbon sequestration dredging disposal site Artemia production Political stability

In the table the main activities (dredging and reuse of material) are divided into sub-activities and they all directly relate to our objectives of carbon sequestration and the restoration of hydrological cycles.

The so-called sub-activities (creation of wetlands, improving the marine environment, reinforcement of the coast, creation of dams and terraces, regreening, etc.) can also be related to natural, social and financial benefits (last column in above table). The mentioned benefits in the table should be seen as an example and those benefits are subject to the project itself. The Weather Makers will always optimize those benefits in projects to create healthy business cases. However, our projects will generate a lot of carbon sequestration and improve hydrological cycles and therefore contribute to the prevention of climate change worldwide. Investors can contribute to and identify themselves with these objectives.

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4 Project Case

4.1 Introduction In order to increase the expertise in the Netherlands for ecosystem restoration, The Weather Makers have identified a case study: regreening the Sinai. The Sinai is the smallest and most impactful watershed in the world to demonstrate the huge importance of ecosystem function and the potential of ecosystem restoration. It is connected with the Mediterranean basin and the Indian Ocean basin and has therefore extremely large influence on the weather in both hydrological systems. Another opportunity of the Sinai is that regreening of the desert can start at Lake Bardawil at the northern coast, making it a Resource Based Dredging project and linking many different disciplines: marine and land ecosystem engineering, coastal engineering, hydrological engineering, geotechnical engineering and meteorological engineering.

In the next paragraph 4.2 the project is shortly described. In paragraph 0 we propose a setup of studies and the required financial resources.

4.2 Project Case: Regreening the Sinai

Figure 4-1 – Satellite image of the Sinai in Egypt with lake Bardawil in the North

A bird’s eye view of Lake Bardawil and the northern Sinai (Figure 4-1) shows the importance of future interconnected coastal and land-based ecosystems. One needs to restore both in order to achieve multiple sustainable outcomes for those stakeholders depending on these ecosystems.

The overarching objective of the project is to restore the marine and land ecosystems in the northern part of the Sinai peninsula, which then will generate the opportunity for a sustainable future for those communities living area. The project adopts a long-term vision of the restoration of the hydrological cycle of the northern Sinai, between Lake Bardawil in the north and mount

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Catharina in the south. Balanced evaporation, water harvesting and infiltration rates by an increase of vegetation will lead to lower temperatures and a healthy hydrological cycle and therefore improved local climate conditions. With Resource Based Dredging the marine ecosystem of Lake Bardawil can be restored and will make way to a sustainable fishing industry, in parallel the land ecosystem of the northern Sinai desert is restored through well designed land based restoration activities, refer to Figure 4-2.

Figure 4-2 – Cross section of northern Sinai Peninsula schematizing the existing situation (top) and the long-term vision of restored ecosystems [The Weather Makers ©]

The project consists of restoring the land and marine ecosystems by a combination of structural activities and stakeholders’ engagement at multiple levels. The Project will be spread over 3 consecutive phases (phase 1 = 3 years, phase 2 = 7 years and phase 3 = 10 years) preceded by a Front End Engineering and design campaign prior to start any activity.

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In phase 1 the main activities to achieve the overall objective are (i) dredging inlets and gullies of the lake to improve the environmental conditions of the lake and to increase the fish population and therewith the fish catch, (ii) resource based dredging: smartly re-use the dredged materials from the lake for reinforcement of the coast, constructions of dams and as soil enhancer for land based activities, (iii) restoration of wetlands and salt marshland around the lake and (iv) kick-starting the hydrological cycle through improvement of the evaporation rate of the lake surface water and vegetation cover.

The Consortium endeavours to kick start the hydrological cycle with the components in Figure 4-3.

• Improvement of quantity and quality of fish catch Kick startting • Improvement of livelihood of those evaporation employed in the fishing industry • Improvement of export potential through rate through certification marine • Improvement food secutiry engineering • Increased inspiration

Kick starting vegetation cover through land scape restoration

• Improvement of soil • Maximising water harvesting opportunities Kick starting human well • Improvement of agricultural produces • Improvement of food security being and combatting • Increased inspiration the negative effects of climate change

• Increase of fresh water availibility • Decrease in temperature • Decrease risk of flash floods • Increased biodiversity • Increased inspiration

Figure 4-3 – Kick starting the hydrological cycle in northern Sinai

The project will be able to stop the sedimentation and desalination of lake Bardawil and end the desertification of the northern Sinai. A wide range of benefits will be achieved on natural, social and financial level, such as: - Increased fish population of fish, jobs in expanding fishing and related industry, more income, development of local community; - Increased canopy, jobs in agriculture and related industries more income, development; - More fresh water availability, food - Improved local climate conditions, reduced risk of flash floods; - Increased biodiversity, protected natural zones, tourism; - Carbon sequestration, infiltration of water.

Potential Impact of the Project Over the long run and based on the assumption that sufficient vegetation cover and stakeholder engagement is created, the implementation and adaptation of the project will lead to lower temperatures and increase water capture in the Sinai. At a macro scale level one can see that there are predominant wind patterns from the Mediterranean area towards the Red Sea. The Sinai acts as a massive “vacuum cleaner”, sucking a large amount of warm and heavy air (moist of 14g/kg air) towards the Indian Ocean. Considering expert judgement, the transfer of this massive amount of energy could be the origin of the negative impact on various climatic issues in the Indian Ocean.

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Figure 4-4 presents plan views of the Red Sea with monthly average wind patterns (magnitude and direction) in summer and winter.

Figure 4-4 – Monthly average wind in summer (left) and winter (right) [Source: Houshuo Jiang, J. T. 2009]

What may be concluded from Figure 4-4 is that during summer the prevailing winds from the Sinai blow across the Red Sea and reach the Indian Ocean. During winter, when the Sinai is less warm and one could say that the “vacuum cleaning” phenomenon is reduced, predominant wind patterns from the Indian Ocean reach half way the Red Sea up to the Tokar Gap. The solar energy is the engine for the vacuum cleaner, the hotter it becomes the more moisture it will suck away from the Mediterranean and so degradation and desertification will only accelerate in the nearby future, mean a threat for whole southern Europe and northern Africa.

Preliminary WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting) modelling shows that a cooler Sinai, based on reduced temperatures by vegetation, has an increased precipitation and seriously changes the wind patterns.

Figure 4-5 - Change of wind patterns [The Weather Makers ©]

What if the temperatures in the Sinai would be further reduced? It is not unlikely that the colder winds from the Indian Ocean will start to feed the hydrological cycle of the Sinai, but also the

05 September 2017 23 Beleidsplan surrounding region, as indicated in Figure 4-5. This could potentially impact a bigger area than the Sinai Peninsula and would therefore have a major impact at regional and even continental scale.

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Vizualisations by Dreamlake & The Weather Makers ©