Understanding Climate Change an Equitable Framework
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The Weather Makers Re-‐Examined
THE WEATHER MAKERS RE-EXAMINED BIAS NEW RELEASE 400 page BOOK by Dr D W Allen Baseless Selection Reporting See details at bottom of spreadsheet Misinterpretation Misrepresentation Failed Preditions Failed Confusing / Silly Confusing Important Facts Important Suspect Source Suspect No uncertainty No Contradictory Exaggeration Factual Error Factual Half-truth Half-truth Dogmatic Flannery Statements Mistakes Extreme Allen Comments - mostly shortened Title - The Weather Makers Page 1 Weather is not climate / nature makes weather Climate change a threat to civilisation (R Purves) Foreword 1 Global cooling is the greater threat a theory is only valid for as long as it has not been disproved 2 1 Who could disprove that Tim will go to a special monkey heaven! Pollutants - known as greenhouse gases 3 1 Water vapour & CO2 pollutants? By 1975, the first sophisticated computer models 4 1 1 They were very primitive / still not sophisticated enough The heart of Earth's thermostat is CO2 5 1 Water is much more important the gas lasts around a century in the atmosphere 5 1 1 1 57% of it is naturally sequested within a year GHG reached levels not seen for millions of years 6 1 1 CO2 reached 348ppm during the early Holocene Replacing 4WD with a hybrid reduces GHG by 70% 6 1 1 It can actually increase global GHG emissions Vote for a politician who will sign Kyoto 8 1 Signing Kyoto in 2007 made no difference to emissions SECTION 1 - GAIA'S TOOLS Drop of 0.1% in solar radiation reaching Earth can trigger an 14 1 1 Compare with next statement ice age smog can cut sunlight by 10% and heat the lower environment Smoke (which is what he is referring to) blocks sunlight, cooling the 107 1 1 and ocean lower environment. -
Tim Flannery, the Weather Makers: the History and Future Impact of Climate Change
Tim Flannery, The Weather Makers: The History and Future Impact of Climate Change. Melbourne: Text Publishing, 2005. ISBN 1-920-88584-6 Paul Starr There are three modes of analysis in Tim Flannery’s recent climate change book: the historical, the diagnostic, and the prescriptive. The first two modes – charting the history of climate change, the history of climate science, and working out the parameters of our current predicament – take up almost all of the book. The move into prescription out of diagnosis, into what people can do to avoid or mitigate the impacts of climate change, happens in the last pages of the book, and this imbalance points to an important bind in which popular non-fiction writing about climate change for a general audience often finds itself. I will come back to this bind at the end of this review. Tim Flannery is well known in Australia, and to a lesser extent overseas, as a science- based provocateur. Earlier books based on his fieldwork in Papua New Guinea have drawn on archaeology and anthropology to explain issues such as biodiversity loss to a general audience. Books such as The Future Eaters and Throwim Way Leg contributed to popular debates on issues as diverse as the impacts of human cultures on historical ecosystems and the causes of past extinction events (such as those of Australian giant marsupials), through to the capacity of current societies to see how their behaviours contribute to, or detract from, the quality of human and non-human futures. Climate change was in many ways a new subject for Flannery. -
Part I: Introduction
Part I: Introduction “Perhaps the sentiments contained in the following pages are not yet sufficiently fashionable to procure them general favor; a long habit of not thinking a thing wrong gives it a superficial appearance of being right, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom. But the tumult soon subsides. Time makes more converts than reason.” -Thomas Paine, Common Sense (1776) “For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it.” -Patrick Henry (1776) “I am aware that many object to the severity of my language; but is there not cause for severity? I will be as harsh as truth. On this subject I do not wish to think, or speak, or write, with moderation. No! No! Tell a man whose house is on fire to give a moderate alarm; tell him to moderately rescue his wife from the hands of the ravisher; tell the mother to gradually extricate her babe from the fire into which it has fallen -- but urge me not to use moderation in a cause like the present. The apathy of the people is enough to make every statue leap from its pedestal, and to hasten the resurrection of the dead.” -William Lloyd Garrison, The Liberator (1831) “Gas is running low . .” -Amelia Earhart (July 2, 1937) 1 2 Dear Reader, Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. -
Thinking About Climate Change Change Climate About Thinking
THINKING ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE A GUIDE FOR TEACHERS AND STUDENTS THINKING ABOUT THINKING ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE A GUIDE FOR TEACHERS AND STUDENTS Written for teachers by teachers, this resource is designed to make teaching about climate change easy and accessible. It provides ideas for teachers in all states across key learning areas, and prepared worksheets appropriate for years 7–10. Including material drawn from Tim Flannery’s CLIMATE We Are the Weather Makers, it offers a valuable learning opportunity for students and will help develop both their thinking skills and understanding of climate change—the science, impacts and solutions. Also available online at www.theweathermakers.com NOT FOR SALE This is a free publication. Based on Tim Flannery’s CHAWE ARE THE A GUIDENG FOR TEACHERS AND STUDENTSE WEATHER MAKERS TEXT PUBLISHING COVER PHOTOGRAPH: GETTY IMAGES DESIGN: SUSAN MILLER THINKING ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE A GUIDE FOR TEACHERS AND STUDENTS devised by: David Harding Rose Iser Sally Stevens TEXT PUBLISHING The Text Publishing Company Swann House 22 William Street Melbourne Victoria 3000 Australia www.textpublishing.com.au Copyright © Text Publishing 2007 Excerpts © Tim Flannery ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. All or part of this publication may be photocopied or printed providing it is for educational, non-profit purposes only. No part may be otherwise reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form by any means electronic, mechanical or recording without the prior consent of the copyright owner and the publisher of this book. Book design & typesetting: Susan Miller Illustrations: Angela Ho Printed and bound in Australia by Print Bound NOT FOR SALE This is a free publication. -
Tim Flannery's
‘He can visualise our world in fifty years, and this vision haunts him’: Tim Flannery’s ‘Now or Never: A Sustainable Future for Australia?’1 Issue 9, December 2008 | David Hodgkinson If human beings follow a business-as-usual course, continuing to exploit fossil fuel resources without reducing carbon emissions or capturing and sequestering them before they warm the atmosphere, the eventual effects on climate and life may be comparable to those at the time of mass extinctions. Life will survive, but it will do so on a transformed planet. For all foreseeable human generations, it will be a far more desolate world than the one in which civilization developed and flourished during the past several thousand years. - Professor James Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Adjunct Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Earth Institute, Columbia University2 Until a few years ago Tim Flannery was best known for his book The Future Eaters,3 an ecological history of Australia. The Future Eaters is, in part, about the subtle interaction that makes an ecosystem work. It also presents an argument for sustainability, and climate change in a sustainability context has been the focus of Flannery’s work ever since. He was the Australian of the Year in 2007. In September 2008 Flannery appeared on Enough Rope with Andrew Denton, and Denton said to him: ‘Australian of the Year is not supposed to be political in his or her comments. Was it perhaps a useful place to put you, where you couldn’t be political?’4 He responded: ‘it might have been, but I sort of made it clear on the day that I got the Award that I wasn’t going to shut up. -
The Threat to the Planet by Jim Hansen
The Threat to the Planet By Jim Hansen The Weather Makers: How Man Is Changing the Climate and What It Means for Life on Earth by Tim Flannery Atlantic Monthly Press, 357 pp., $24.00 Field Notes from a Catastrophe: Man, Nature, and Climate Change by Elizabeth Kolbert Bloomsbury, 210 pp., $22.95 An Inconvenient Truth: The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It by Al Gore Melcher Media/Rodale, 325 pp., $21.95 (paper) An Inconvenient Truth a film directed by Davis Guggenheim Jim Hansen is Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Adjunct Pro- fessor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University’s Earth Institute. His opinions are expressed here, he writes, “as personal views under the protection of the First Amendment of the United States Constitution.” 1 1 Animals are on the run. Plants are migrating too. The Earth’s creatures, save for one species, do not have thermostats in their living rooms that they can adjust for an optimum environment. Animals and plants are adapted to specific climate zones, and they can survive only when they are in those zones. Indeed, scientists often define climate zones by the vegetation and animal life that they support. Gardeners and bird watchers are well aware of this, and their handbooks contain maps of the zones in which a tree or flower can survive and the range of each bird species. Those maps will have to be redrawn. Most people, mainly aware of larger day-to-day fluc- tuations in the weather, barely notice that climate, the average weather, is changing. -
Clayway Media Presents
clayway media presents Directed by Peter Byck Produced by Peter Byck, Craig Sieben, Karen Weigert, Artemis Joukowsky & Chrisna van Zyl Narrated by Bill Kurtis Production Notes 82 minutes, Color, 35 mm www.carbonnationmovie.com www.facebook.com/carbonnationfilm New York Press Los Angeles Press Susan Senk PR & Marketing Big Time PR & Marketing Susan Senk- Linda Altman Sylvia Desrochers - Tiffany Bair Wagner Office: 212-876-5948 Office: 424-208-3496 Susan:[email protected] Sylvia: [email protected] Linda: [email protected] Tiffany: [email protected] Marketing & Distribution Marketing & Distribution Dada Films Required Viewing MJ Peckos Steven Raphael Office: (310) 273 1444 Office: (212) 206-0118 [email protected] [email protected] Director’s Statement I became aware of climate change in 2006 and immediately wanted to know whether there were solutions. Along with my team, we set out to find the innovators and entrepreneurs who were laying the groundwork for a clean energy future. Mid-way through production, we met Bernie Karl, a wild Alaskan geothermal pioneer – when Bernie told me he didn’t think humans were the cause of climate change, it was a light- bulb moment. A person didn’t have to believe in climate science to still want clean air and clean water. And once we filmed the Green Hawks in the Department of Defense, I realized that national security was another way into the clean energy world. In our travels, we filmed Bay Area radicals, utility CEOs, airlines execs and wonky economists – and they all agree that using as little energy as possible and making clean energy are important goals; whether for solutions to climate change, national or energy security or public health. -
Relocalization.Network
2006 Relocalization Network Report relocalization.network www.relocalize.net The Relocalization Network is an initiative of Post Carbon Institute © 2007 The Relocalization Network annual report welcome Greetings Best Wishes from the Network Team The 2006 year saw many changes for the Relocalization Network: the number of Local Groups in the Network almost doubled, we launched the website www.relocalize.net, and we started building and improving our library of resources and support services. We thank everyone for their patience in working with us through this process of learning and experimenting with different tools and techniques for improving the foundation of the Relocalization Network. We are grateful to have had the opportunity to work with so many wonderful people. Over the next year we look forward to building stronger connections with everyone in the Relocalization Network and to continuing to learn and adapt as we move towards a future less dependant on fossil fuels. All the best, Relocalization Network Team About this report This report provides information about the Relocalization Network for groups and individuals interested in getting involved and starting Relocalization projects in their communities. It includes a brief history of the Relocalization Network, and an overview of the year’s projects and events. If you have any questions about the material presented here, please contact us at [email protected]. relocalization.network 2006 Annual Report 2 The Relocalization Network annual report background and contents Background Contents The Relocalization Network was created in 2003 as one of the first initiatives of Post Carbon Institute. It developed as a response to individuals’ questions about how they 3 The Relocalization Network: could take action to address the implications of peak oil. -
Aspo in Lisbon
$65.00 per year $6.00 U.S. A Nonpartisan Non-sectarian MAP for the Here That Is, Into the Tomorrow of Our Own Making Vol. VIII, No. 4 ——–—————–———————————————————–—–——–———————— July 12, 2005 Special Edition © Copyright 2005 A.S.P.O.A.S.P.O. ININ LISBONLISBON ByBy JameyJamey Hecht,Hecht, PhDPhD Richard Heinberg and Julian Darley of the Post-Carbon Institute "This is just silly," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research in Winchester, Mass. "It's not like industrial civilization is going to come crashing down." -- Associated Press article of May 24 2005, “GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH: Oil peak predicted; Some analysts predict irreversible slide for world's reserves” By Matt Crenson [June 16, 2005 1400 PST (FTW) -- LISBON] When FTW covered the third annual meeting of A.S.P.O. last year in Berlin, we found a bracingly clear picture of the impending world oil shortage. The analysis was powerful, but it remained inside the scientific culture that produced it; journalists were left to wonder how on Earth the dire facts would ever get through to the public without a massive nongov- ernmental outreach program of some kind. As Michael Ruppert wrote in his report, "It felt strange to discuss Peak Oil in a purely data- driven way while knowing how utterly it will shatter our growth-driven industrial civilization." During May 19 and 20, 2005 in the central building of Lisbon's Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation (Av. de Berna 45 A), A.S.P.O. had a (Cont’d on page 3) Page -1- From the Wilderness Michael C. -
Title of Manuscript
Climate and Energy Crises Short Web and Book List With global warming visibly happening now, not in the distant future, notably with the tipping point crisis of Arctic sea ice, coal power plants have become a policy battleground. With conventional oil plateauing starting in 2005, and world fuel supplies upheld by short lived deep-water oil (and natural gas liquids), we are entering a period of global energy challenges affecting the economy, transportation, war and food that in a few years will dramatically worsen. - Jim Mulherin, Research Associate, UCSC, draft October 10, 2009, [email protected] Selected Websites on Climate Change and Peak Oil www.earth-policy.org/index.php?/books/pb4 has online PDF version of Lester Brown, Plan B 4.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization. Has overviews of peak oil and global warming as well as of associated food, water, environmental crises, failing states and what we can do. Most chapters focus on solutions with a budget. Translated into many languages. www.monthlyreview.org issues for July-August and Nov., 2008 (vol. 60, #3 & #6) are a two part series. Part one, www.monthlyreview.org/julaug2008.php, has overview, peak oil and warming, water, while www.monthlyreview.org/nov2008.php addresses political aspects. Specific articles are online. Provides alternative view of a comprehensive solution. Climate: http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Climate/ClimateFrameset.html has basic info and many links www.eoearth.org/article/Climate_Change_%28collection%29 starting point for series of articles http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_global_warming Starting point for series of articles www.ipcc.ch is the site of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. -
Peak Oil Strategic Management Dissertation
STRATEGIC CHOICES FOR MANAGING THE TRANSITION FROM PEAK OIL TO A REDUCED PETROLEUM ECONOMY BY SARAH K. ODLAND STRATEGIC CHOICES FOR MANAGING THE TRANSITION FROM PEAK OIL TO A REDUCED PETROLEUM ECONOMY BY SARAH K. ODLAND JUNE 2006 ORIGINALLY SUBMITTED AS A MASTER’S THESIS TO THE FACULTY OF THE DIVISION OF BUSINESS AND ACCOUNTING, MERCY COLLEGE IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION, MAY 2006 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS AND CHARTS v LIST OF TABLES vii PREFACE viii INTRODUCTION ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM 1 PART I THE BIG ROLLOVER: ONSET OF A PETROLEUM DEMAND GAP AND SWITCH TO A SELLERS’ MARKET CHAPTER 1 WHAT”S OIL EVER DONE FOR YOU? (AND WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF IT STOPPED DOING IT?) 5 Oil: Cheap Energy on Demand - Oil is Not Just a Commodity - Heavy Users - Projected Demand Growth for Liquid Petroleum - Price Elasticity of Oil Demand - Energy and Economic Growth - The Dependence of Productivity Growth on Expanding Energy Supplies - Economic Implications of a Reduced Oil Supply Rate CHAPTER 2 REALITY CHECK: TAKING INVENTORY OF PETROLEUM SUPPLY 17 The Geologic Production of Petroleum - Where the Oil Is and Where It Goes - Diminishing Marginal Returns of Production - Hubbert’s Peak: World Oil Production Peaking and Decline - Counting Oil Inventory: What’s in the World Warehouse? - Oil Resources versus Accessible Reserves - Three Camps: The Peak Oilers, Official Agencies, Technology Optimists - Liars’ Poker: Got Oil? - Geopolitical Realities of the Distribution of Remaining World -
“A Glimpse Into the Post-Petroleum Future” with Albert Bates
“A Glimpse into the Post-Petroleum Future” with Albert Bates White Dog Cafe This slide show is a free download at thegreatchange.com Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 License Philadelphia, October 8, 2007 If a path to the better there be, it begins with a look at the worst. — Robert Hardy (1840 - 1928) WORLD OIL SUPPLY & DEMAND: LOWER 48 PRODUCTION PATTERN & EXTRAPOLATED DEMAND GROWTH Peak Oil Extrapolated Demand - Growing World Economy 120 100 Shortage 80 PRODUCTION 60 (MM bpd) L 48 production Assumed: 40 pattern • Demand @ 2% 20 • Oil Decline @ 2% 0 • Peak @ 100 MM bpd -20 -10 0 +10 +20 (Not a prediction) YEARS BEFORE / AFTER OIL PEAK SAIC / MISI The USA gets its oil from: Canada Saudi Arabia Mexico Venezuela In 2001, PEMEX built the world’s largest nitrogen injection plant to increase reservoir pressure at Cantarell. Production doubled to nearly 2 million barrels a day, but last year went into precipitous, apparently terminal decline. It is currently declining at 14% per year, or half every 5 years Raúl Muñoz Leos, director general de Petróleos Mexicanos Jul 27 (Prensa Latina): Petroleos Mexicanos (PEMEX) announced that oil reserves may run out in seven years. Even if heavy investments were made now, new oil fields would take from six to eight years to be ready and, consequently, Mexico may have to import oil to satisfy the internal market, it warned. Saudi Arabia Production Peak Oil Acknowledgement: The Oil Drum Canada and Venezuela Then Now Acknowledgement: Nate Hagens k? ea hen is the P W Peak Oil Peak The peaking of world oil production presents the U.S.