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Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion

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Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion Survey of Macedonian Public Opinion April 19-25, 2016 Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted on behalf of the International Republican Institute by the Brima market research firm (member of Taylor Nelson Sofres and Gallup International) in cooperation with Chariot LLC in San Francisco, California. • Data was collected from April 19 to 25, 2016, using in-person, face-to-face methodology by trained professional interviewers. • A total of 1,104 interviews were completed, yielding an overall margin of error of plus or minus three percent at the midrange of the 95-percent confidence level. A nationally representative sample was based on a multistage stratification proportionate to population sample distribution, with a random selection of households and respondents. The response rate was 75 percent. • The sample was prepared using the State Statistical Office data (2002 census results) for the population aged 18 and older. It also considered the structure of the population according to age, gender, education, type of housing, national affiliation and region while updating accordingly to estimates and primary information, collected by Brima. • Stratification was based on three stages: first, the number of respondents for each of region was specified in proportion to the size of its population aged 18 and older. Second, the sampling plan consisted of 163 sampling points located according to urban/rural split, municipality size and nationality diffusion. Third, the selection of households was based on a random route method, whereby in urban areas, every third household on the left-hand side of the street was selected. In rural areas, the wave-wise approach was applied to select every fourth inhabited house/dwelling on both sides of the interviewer’s route/track, counting from the first house on the left. • The next birthday method was used to select respondents 18 years and older. • Figures in charts and tables may not add to 100 percent due to rounding error. • This poll was conducted with support from the United States Agency for International Development. The Political Situation in Macedonia How would you describe the current internal political situation in Macedonia? 70% 61% 59% 60% 56% 55% 55% 61% 51% 51% 50% 54% 48% 44% 53% 44% 45% 45% 46% 42% 44% 43% 38% 40% 36% 43% 43% 36% 43% 41% 42% 41% 40% 39% 38% 39% 29% 30% 35% 28% 23% 23% 20% 15% 16% 19% 13% 13% 12% 19% 10% 13% 12% 12% 10% 9% 9% 15% 10% 8% 7% 7% 6% 5% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 3% 4% 3% 2% 2% 3% 4% 2% 3% 6% 2% 0% 3% Peaceful and Stable Intense and Uncertain Critical and Unstable Don't Know/Refused to Answer 4 Is the Republic of Macedonia more or less stable today than it was one year ago? 80% 70% 67% 60% 58% 58% 60% 54% 54% 54% 53% 51% 50% 51% 47% 47% 50% 46% 46% 45% 47% 43% 43% 42% 42% 43% 40% 35% 35% 33% 30% 33% 31% 26% 27% 29% 28% 27% 38% 30% 24% 25% 26% 35% 25% 21% 23% 21% 22% 31% 17% 18% 18% 16% 18% 20% 25% 24% 14% 15% 20% 21% 23% 22% 17% 19% 18% 19% 10% 5% 5% 5% 3% 4% 3% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 3% 2% 2% 3% 0% More Less Same Don't Know/Refused to Answer 5 Overall, is Macedonia moving in the right or wrong direction? 70% 60% 58% 50% 48% 48% 48% 45% 43% 44% 41% 40% 40% 46% 38% 39% 39% 40% 37%38% 33% 38% 39% 34% 35% 36% 33% 33% 32% 31% 32% 36% 36% 30% 29% 36% 30% 32% 33% 28% 26% 28% 33% 31% 31% 31% 27% 31% 29% 24% 28%28% 32% 27% 27% 29% 21% 26% 19% 26% 25% 24% 24% 24% 20% 23% 22% 23% 20% 10% 2% 3% 3% 2% 2% 3% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 2% 1% 2% 0% Right Direction Wrong Direction Neutral Don't Know/Refused to Answer 6 In your opinion, what are the two most serious problems facing Macedonia today? (Open-Ended) 27% Unemployment 44% 17% General/current political 26% situation/the political crisis 12% 38% Poverty, low standard of living, 10% problems of common people 13% 23% 7% Economic crisis and financial crisis 12% 19% Low or non-payment of salary or 5% pension 10% 14% 3% Corruption 6% 9% 3% Crime 5% 8% 1% High prices 4% 6% 1% Immigration/youth 4% 3% 2% The current protests 2% 4% Poor performance of the current 1% 3% government 2% 1% Law and order, rule of law 3% 2% Security crisis, peace, stability, 1% 3% war, terrorism 1% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% First Mention Second Mention 7 Do you support or do not support President Ivanov’s decision to pardon all politicians and their associates against whom there are judicial investigations in regards to the political crisis and the wiretapping? 12% 9% I completely support it 14% I somewhat support it I somewhat do not support it I completely do not support it 11% Don't know/Refused to answer 53% 8 Should the politicians who were pardoned by the President about deeds connected to the political crisis and the wiretapping be eligible or not be eligible to be candidates for MPs in the upcoming parliamentary elections? 12% 18% Yes, they should be eligible No, they should not be eligible Don't know/Refused to answer 70% 9 A special public prosecutor, Katica Janeva, was appointed to investigate cases connected to the wiretapped conversations mentioned previously. Do you think that Ms. Janeva will be able to investigate these cases independently and without obstruction? 50% 45% 44% 40% 38% 35% 35% 33% 30% 27% 28% 25% 22% 20% 20% 18% 17% 15% 13% 10% 7% 5% 0% Yes No I have not heard of Don’t know/ this appointment Refused to answer October 2015 January 2016 April 2016 10 Do you support the work of the Special Public Prosecutor for the resolution of the wiretapping scandal? 12% I completely support it I somewhat support it 17% 42% I somewhat do not support it I completely do not support it 9% Don't know/ Refused to answer 21% 11 Some people think that the conditions for free and fair elections in Macedonia (including cleaning the voter list, increasing the capacity of the State Election Commission, and establishing regulations reducing political interference in the media) have been met and because of this elections should take place on June 5; while others think that these conditions have not been met and because of this the elections should be postponed until the conditions are fulfilled. Which is closer to your opinion? 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 45% 47% 20% 39% 38% 15% 10% 16% 15% 5% 0% Elections should take place on Elections should be postponed Don't know/ June 5 Refused to answer January 2016 April 2016 Note: Data taken for January 2016 relates to proposed April 24, 2016 election date. 12 How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections expected on June 5, 2016?* 60% 52% 50% 39% 40% 30% 22% 19% 20% 11% 12% 9% 10% 10% 8% 7% 5% 6% 0% Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat Very unlikely Would not vote Don't know/ unlikely Refused to answer January 2016 April 2016 * In January, the question was phrased “How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections expected on April 24, 2016?” 13 How likely, if at all, are you to vote in the next elections expected on June 5, 2016? Age 55+ 46% 16% 8% 13% 7% 10% Age 35-54 40% 18% 11% 12% 8% 11% Age 18-34 31% 22% 7% 8% 16% 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Very likely Somewhat likely Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely Would not vote Don't know/Refused to answer 14 Do you think there are conditions in the country to hold free and fair elections? April 2016 48% 45% 7% January 2016 59% 35% 6% October 2015 63% 30% 7% Definitely Yes / Probably Yes Definitely No / Probably No Don't know 15 As you may know, a credible voter list should contain all eligible voters in the country and not have any ineligible or duplicate voters in it. How confident are you in the accuracy of the voter list in Macedonia? 35% 31% 30% 29% 27% 26% 26% 24% 25% 23% 21% 20% 17% 17% 15% 15% 13% 12% 10% 10% 9% 5% 0% I am very I am somewhat I am not that I am not Don’t know/ confident confident confident confident at all Refused to answer October 2015 January 2016 April 2016 16 Do you think that state institutions are capable of sufficiently addressing any irregularities, should they occur, on Election Day? 45% 40% 40% 39% 38% 35% 35% 33% 32% 30% 25% 21% 20% 17% 18% 15% 10% 10% 9% 9% 5% 0% Yes, they are capable No, they are not No, they are not Don't know sufficiently capable capable at all October 2015 January 2016 April 2016 17 What institution do you think is most responsible to ensure the elections will be free, democratic and with no irregularities? 60% 51% 50% 43% 40% 33% 30% 25% 20% 20% 17% 17%18% 13% 11% 11% 11% 9% 10% 10% 7% 2% 2% 2% 0% State Election Ministry of The Political Parties The Judiciary Don’t know/ Commission Internal Government Refused to Affairs/Police answer October 2015 January 2016 April 2016 18 To what degree did you trust the following according to their actions in the last 12 months? Special Public Prosecution 33% 40% The President 30% 52% Ministries 27% 43% The Government 27% 53% State Election Commission 26% 44% Public Prosecution 25% 46% The Assembly 23% 54% Courts 21% 52% Media 20% 43% State Commission 20% 52% for Prevention of Corruption Political Parties 16% 49% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% I Trust Them/ I Have No Trust/ I Fully Trust Them I Have No Trust at All 19 Do you believe that your vote on Election Day is secret? 80% 69% 71% 70% 66% 66% 62% 60% 61% 49% 50% 40% 39% 31% 27% 28% 30% 23% 22% 23% 20% 13% 11% 10% 8% 7% 7% 7% 11% 0% Feb-14 May-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Yes No Don't Know/Refused to Answer 20 Who do you think violates the secrecy of your vote? Those who think that their vote on election day is not secret, n=309 38% Political Parties, All of Them 39% 43% 15% The Government 12% 19% 17% VMRO-DPMNE 12% 6% 1% SDSM 1% 7% April-16
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