(Mekong Arcc) Synthesis Report
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MEKONG ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE (MEKONG ARCC) SYNTHESIS REPORT MARCH 2013 This draft report was produced for review and comment by the United States Agency for International Development and other stakeholders at the final regional workshop on the climate change and adaptation study to be held in Bangkok March 28-29, 2013. It was prepared for Mekong ARCC by ICEM and DAI. First draft for review and comment by participants at the final regional workshop in Bangkok March 28-29, 2013 MEKONG ADAPTATION AND RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE CHANGE (MEKONG ARCC) FIRST DRAFT SYNTHESIS REPORT Program Title: Mekong Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change (Mekong ARCC) Sponsoring USAID Office: USAID/Asia Regional Environment Office Contract Number: AID-486-C-11-00004 Contractor: DAI Date of Publication: March 2013 This publication has been made possible by the support of the American People through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this document are the sole responsibility of DAI and ICEM and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. 3 MEKONG ARCC TASK 2 DRAFT SYNTHESIS REPORT First draft for review and comment by participants at the final regional workshop in Bangkok March 28-29, 2013 MEKONG ARCC TASK 2 STUDY DOCUMENT SET The Mekong ARCC project is a five- year program (2011-2016) funded by the USAID Regional Development Mission for Asia (RDMA) in Bangkok. The project focuses on identifying the environmental, economic and social effects of climate change in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), and on assisting highly exposed and vulnerable rural populations in ecologically sensitive areas increase their ability to adapt to climate change impacts on water resources, agricultural and aquatic systems, livestock, ecosystems, and livelihood options. Task 2 of the project, led and implemented by ICEM – International Centre for Environmental Management, has undertaken a climate change impact and adaptation study focusing on key livelihood themes of the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) including agriculture, livestock, fisheries and natural systems. As part of the Mekong ARCC Task 2 study a set of documents have been prepared including: 1. Mekong ARCC Task 2 Synthesis Report 2. Vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning for agriculture in the LMB 3. Vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning for livestock in the LMB 4. Vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning for fisheries in the LMB 5. Vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning for natural systems in the LMB 6. Vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning for socio-economics in the LMB This Synthesis Report has been designed to summarize and integrate the theme based documents. MEKONG ARCC TASK 2 PROJECT TEAM Jeremy Carew-Reid (Task 2 Team Leader) Climate and hydrological modeling and GIS Tarek Ketelsen (Theme Leader), Jorma Koponen, Mai Ky Vinh Simon Tilleard and Toan To Quang. Agriculture Olivier Joffre (Theme Leader), Dang Kieu Nhan and Bun Chantrea Aquaculture and capture fisheries Rick Gregory (Theme Leader), Meng Monyrak, Narong Veeravaitaya and Truong Hoanh Minh Natural systems Peter-John Meynell (Theme Leader), Sansanee Choowaew and Nguyen Huu Thien Livestock Thomas Weaver (Theme Leader) Socio-economics John Sawdon (Theme Leader), Try Thuon, Sengmanichanh Somchanmavong and Paul Wyrwoll 4 MEKONG ARCC TASK 2 DRAFT SYNTHESIS REPORT First draft for review and comment by participants at the final regional workshop in Bangkok March 28-29, 2013 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................. 9 1.1 MEKONG ARCC PROJECT ............................................................................................. 9 1.2 TASK 2 STUDY AND ITS OBJECTIVES ............................................................................... 9 2 THE LOWER MEKONG BASIN ..................................................................................... 10 2.1 BIOPHYSICAL OVERVIEW .............................................................................................. 10 2.2 HYDROCLIMATE .......................................................................................................... 13 2.3 SOCIOECONOMIC OVERVIEW ........................................................................................ 18 2.4 TRANSFORMATION OF LMB FARMING SYSTEMS ............................................................ 21 2.4.1 Commercial and subsistence agriculture ........................................................... 21 2.4.2 Agricultural production in the LMB .................................................................... 22 2.4.3 Socio-economic implications of commercial agriculture .................................... 22 2.4.4 Risks and opportunities in the context of climate change .................................. 24 3 TASK 2 STUDY METHOD ............................................................................................. 26 3.1 OVERALL METHODOLOGY ............................................................................................ 26 3.1.1 Methodological concepts .................................................................................. 26 3.1.2 Spatial framework for the study ......................................................................... 30 3.1.3 The CAM process ............................................................................................. 38 3.2 CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGICAL ANALYSIS METHODS ......................................................... 43 3.2.1 Assessment Time slices ................................................................................... 43 3.2.2 Climate change threats ..................................................................................... 46 3.2.3 Method for identifying climate change threats ................................................... 48 3.3 HOTSPOT RANKING METHOD ........................................................................................ 58 3.3.1 Hotspot threat analysis ..................................................................................... 58 3.4 SPECIAL METHODS ADOPTED FOR THE MAIN THEMES ..................................................... 60 3.4.1 Agriculture ........................................................................................................ 60 3.4.2 Livestock ........................................................................................................... 61 3.4.3 Natural systems – NTFPs and CWRs ............................................................... 63 3.4.4 Natural systems - Protected areas .................................................................... 67 3.4.5 Capture fisheries ............................................................................................... 71 3.4.6 Aquaculture ...................................................................................................... 72 3.4.7 Socio-economics (health and infrastructure) ..................................................... 73 4 CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGY PROJECTIONS ............................................................. 77 4.1 LONG TERM TRENDS IN MEKONG HYDROCLIMATE .......................................................... 77 4.2 COMPARISON OF GCMS .............................................................................................. 80 4.2.1 long term inter-annual comparison .................................................................... 80 4.2.2 Intra-annual comparison for 2050 time slice ...................................................... 82 4.2.3 spatial comparson for 2050 time slice ............................................................... 83 4.3 BASIN ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGY PROJECTIONS FOR THE 2050 TIME SLICE 87 4.3.1 Temperature ..................................................................................................... 87 4.3.2 Precipitation ...................................................................................................... 88 5 MEKONG ARCC TASK 2 DRAFT SYNTHESIS REPORT First draft for review and comment by participants at the final regional workshop in Bangkok March 28-29, 2013 4.3.3 Hydrology ......................................................................................................... 91 4.3.4 Agricultural drought ........................................................................................... 95 4.3.5 Cylones, storms and peak precipitation............................................................. 95 4.3.6 flooding and saline intrusion in the mekong delta .............................................. 98 4.4 HOTSPOT RANKING .................................................................................................... 102 4.4.2 Priority provinces ............................................................................................ 104 4.5 ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGY PROJECTIONS FOR PRIORITY PROVINCES ........ 106 4.5.1 Chiang rai ....................................................................................................... 106 4.5.2 Gia Lai ............................................................................................................ 109 4.5.3 Kien Giang ...................................................................................................... 109 4.5.4 Khammoune ................................................................................................... 110 4.5.5 Mondul