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Poverty, Partnership and Punctuation: the Rise of Irish Social Partnership in Comparative Perspective

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Poverty, Partnership and Punctuation: the Rise of Irish Social Partnership in Comparative Perspective Poverty, Partnership and Punctuation: The Rise of Irish Social Partnership in Comparative Perspective by KEELEY WYNNE STOKES B.A., Pomona College, 1999 M.A., University College Dublin, 2001 M.A., University of Colorado, 2006 A thesis submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of the University of Colorado in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Political Science 2010 This thesis entitled: Poverty, Partnership and Punctuation: The Rise of Irish Social Partnership in Comparative Perspective written by Keeley Wynne Stokes has been approved for the Department of Political Science Dr. Joseph Jupille _____________________________ (Committee Chair) Dr. Susan Clarke Dr. Jennifer Fitzgerald _____________________________ _____________________________ (Committee Member) (Committee Member) Dr. Krister Andersson Dr. Ann Carlos _____________________________ _____________________________ (Committee Member) (Committee Member) Date __________________ The final copy of this thesis has been examined by the signatories, and we Find that both the content and the form meet acceptable presentation standards Of scholarly work in the above mentioned discipline. IRB protocol # ___ 0209.20_________________ ABSTRACT Stokes, Keeley Wynne (Ph.D., Political Science) Poverty, Partnership and Punctuation: The Rise of Irish Social Partnership In Comparative Perspective Thesis directed by Professor Joseph Jupille This study considers the development of social partnership in Ireland via a comparative analysis of institutional friction, political and economic conditions and causal ideas. Starting from the punctuated equilibrium framework as developed by Baumgartner and Jones, this work asks ―What explains episodes of dramatic policy change?‖ The analysis utilizes a mixed-methods research design to address policy change across time and space, departing from conventional explanations to focus on the role of ideas in shaping policy choices. Using original data the punctuated equilibrium framework is tested in three stages, beginning with a comparative analysis of institutional friction within social welfare policies in three countries: Ireland, Denmark and the Netherlands. Next, a time series model considers the effect of environmental conditions on policy outcomes over time. Finally, a qualitative process tracing analysis highlights the role of ideas in driving policy change under changing circumstances. Central to the argument here is the contention that shifting causal stories, as conceptualized by Deborah Stone (1989), drive episodes of iii dramatic policy punctuation in moments of shifting institutional, political and economic pressures. Findings from a multi-method analysis of quantitative and qualitative data confirm that institutional, political and economic factors alone are insufficient to generate policy change. In the case of Irish social policy, this study demonstrates that a changing conceptualization of partnership from the perspective of employers, unions and the Government produced a shared vision of the future that bound relevant political actors to a course of policymaking based on consensus and inclusiveness. Moreover, this shared blueprint for future development transcended partisan boundaries, linking Ireland‘s major political parties to a new and cohesive policy trajectory. Finally, the conceptualization of poverty shifted to a multidimensional understanding based on the idea of social exclusion, motivating a comprehensive policy solution based on inclusivity for the future of Irish development. This work challenges the existing literature on policy change to better address the underlying causal mechanisms at work during episodes of punctuation, concluding that overlooking the role of causal ideas is a detriment to our comprehension of the policy process. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND DEDICATION Many friends and colleagues have helped me on this journey. In particular, I am grateful to Joe Jupille, my advisor at the University of Colorado for his insight and guidance. I am also thankful for the support, patience and encouragement of my invaluable mentor, Susan Clarke. Additionally, I thank Jennifer Fitzgerald, Krister Andersson and Ann Carlos for their feedback and advice along the way. Without the generous support of the faculty, this project would still be a collection of notes and ideas. I also owe a huge debt to my fellow graduate students, particularly the dissertation group, Aubrey Westfall and Maureen Donaghy, for their motivation, passion and humor. I truly believe that this achievement is the result of the collective enthusiasm, humor and intelligence of my colleagues. Finally, I want to thank the entire faculty and graduate students at the University of Colorado that inspired me to remember that what we do as political scientists in, indeed, fun. I also want to express my gratitude to all those in Ireland that assisted me during my field research. In particular, thanks to Sara Cantillon for the original research question, and to Tony Crooks, Seamus Jackson, Michelle Millar, Mary Murphy, Maura Adshead, Brid Quinn, Mary Hamilton, Liz Harper, Brendan Shiels, Odran Reid, Jim Kerr, Declan Brassil, Brian Carty, Anne Kavanagh and all those at the PAUL Partnership. Everyone contributed to my understanding of the partnership process and the realities of social exclusion in Ireland today; I can‘t thank you all enough. Without the financial support of many research grants and fellowships, this work would not have been possible. In particular, I want to thank the Colorado European Union Center for Excellence, the Center for Advancement of Research and Teaching in Social Science, the Tocqueville Center, the Center for British and Irish Studies and the University of Colorado for supporting my work. Finally, without the generosity of my family, this journey would never have been possible. I owe an enormous debt to my mother, Pat Wynne, who encouraged and guided me throughout my life and education; I could not have asked for a better role model. Mom, I hope you take some well-deserved pride in this achievement. I also thank my mother and father in-law, Mary and Dermot Stokes, for their enormous faith in me, no matter the endeavor. To my brothers, Wiley and Andy Wynne, thank you for your humor and enduring sense of pride in your little sister. Most importantly, I thank my best friend and one true love, Fiachra for hearing my complaints and anxieties with empathy, understanding and wit; and my daughter, Sadie for her wonderful hugs, kisses and smiles. This work is a testimony to their belief and steadfast love for which I am humbly grateful. TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1.......................................................................................................... 1 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 FUNCTIONAL AND INSTITUTIONAL EXPLANATIONS FOR POLICY CHANGE ................ 4 PUNCTUATED EQUILIBRIUM AS POLICY CHANGE .................................................. 10 IDEAS, IMAGES AND CAUSAL STORIES ................................................................... 14 MODERN IRELAND AND THE CELTIC TIGER ........................................................... 20 IRISH PARTNERSHIP IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE ............................................ 23 CHAPTER OUTLINE AND SUMMARY OF FINDINGS .................................................. 28 CHAPTER 2......................................................................................................... 33 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 33 ANALYSIS OF PUNCTUATED CHANGE ..................................................................... 36 DATA AND METHODS ............................................................................................. 40 POLICY INPUTS ..................................................................................................... 43 POLICY PROCESS ................................................................................................... 46 POLICY OUTPUTS .................................................................................................. 48 RESULTS AND ANALYSIS ........................................................................................ 48 DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS ............................................................................ 58 CHAPTER 3......................................................................................................... 63 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 63 POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC EFFECTS ON POLICY CHANGE ..................................... 66 THE CASE OF IRELAND .......................................................................................... 69 DATA AND METHODS ............................................................................................. 74 vii RESULTS ............................................................................................................... 80 DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS ............................................................................ 88 CHAPTER 4......................................................................................................... 94 INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 94 BACKGROUND: IRELAND IN THE 1980S
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