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World Bank Document The World Bank Angola Growth and Inclusion DPF (P166564) Document of The World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PGD44 INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM DOCUMENT FOR A Public Disclosure Authorized PROPOSED LOAN IN THE AMOUNT OF US$500 MILLION TO REPUBLIC OF ANGOLA FOR THE ANGOLA GROWTH AND INCLUSION DEVELOPMENT POLICY FINANCING Public Disclosure Authorized May 30, 2019 Macroeconomics, Trade And Investment Global Practice Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Public Disclosure Authorized . The World Bank Angola Growth and Inclusion DPF (P166564) REPUBLIC OF ANGOLA - GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective as of date: April 30, 2019) Currency Unit: Angolan Kwanza (Kz) US$1.00 = Kz 319 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS Anti-Money Laundering/Combating the Regulatory Agency in Charge of Water and AML/CFT IRSEA Financing of Terrorism Electricity Tariffs AQR Asset Quality Review Kz Kwanza Competition Regulatory Authority (Autoridade ARC LDP Letter of Development Policy Reguladora da Concorrência) Central Bank of Angola (Banco Nacional de BNA LSPA Payment System Law Angola) Bank of Savings and Credit (Banco de BPC MEP Ministry of Economy and Planning Poupança e Crédito) CBR Correspondent Banking Relations MFD Maximizing Finance for Development CEM Country Economic Memorandum MFD Maximizing Finance for Development CPF Country Partnership Framework MINEA Ministry of Energy and Water CPS Country Partnership Strategy MTDS Medium-term Debt Management Strategy DE4A Digital Economy for Africa MTFF Medium-term Fiscal Framework DGF Deposit Guarantee Fund NDP National Development Plan EFF Extended Fund Facility NPC National Payment Council Energy Sector Management Assistance ESMAP NPLs Non-Performing Loans Program Macroeconomic Stabilization Program FATF Financial Action Task Force PEM (Programa de Estabilizacao Macroeconomica) FDI Foreign Direct Investment PER Public Expenditure Review The World Bank Angola Growth and Inclusion DPF (P166564) IMF International Monetary Fund PFM Public Financial Management FIL Financial Institutions Law PSIA Poverty and Social Impact Analysis Oil Revenue Differential Financial Reserve FX Foreign Exchange RFDRP (Reserva Financeira do Diferencial da Receita do Petróleo) GCI Global Competitiveness Index SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic GDP Gross Domestic Product SDR Special Drawing Rights GoA Government of Angola SOE State-owned Enterprise International Bank for Reconstruction and IBRD VAT Value Added Tax Development IFC International Finance Corporation WB World Bank New Oversight Institute under the Ministry of IGAPE Finance (Instituto de Gestão de Activos e WBG World Bank Group Participações do Estado) . Regional Vice President: Hafez Ghanem Country Director: Elisabeth Huybens Global Practice Director: Marcello Estevao Practice Manager: Francisco Galrao Carneiro Task Team Leaders: Norbert Fiess, Mazen Bouri The World Bank Angola Growth and Inclusion DPF (P166564) REPUBLIC OF ANGOLA ANGOLA GROWTH AND INCLUSION DPF TABLE OF CONTENTS SUMMARY OF PROPOSED FINANCING AND PROGRAM .......................................................................3 1. INTRODUCTION AND COUNTRY CONTEXT ...................................................................................5 2. MACROECONOMIC POLICY FRAMEWORK ....................................................................................7 2.1. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ............................................................................................ 7 2.2. MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ........................................................ 18 2.3. IMF RELATIONS ............................................................................................................................ 20 3. GOVERNMENT PROGRAM ........................................................................................................ 20 4. PROPOSED OPERATION ............................................................................................................ 21 4.1. LINK TO GOVERNMENT PROGRAM AND OPERATION DESCRIPTION .......................................... 21 4.2. PRIOR ACTIONS, RESULTS AND ANALYTICAL UNDERPINNINGS .................................................. 23 4.3. LINK TO CPF, OTHER WORLD BANK OPERATIONS AND THE WBG STRATEGY ............................. 41 4.4. CONSULTATIONS AND COLLABORATION WITH DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS ............................... 42 5. OTHER DESIGN AND APPRAISAL ISSUES .................................................................................... 42 5.1. POVERTY AND SOCIAL IMPACT .................................................................................................... 42 5.2. ENVIRONMENTAL ASPECTS ......................................................................................................... 45 5.3. PFM, DISBURSEMENT AND AUDITING ASPECTS .......................................................................... 46 5.4. MONITORING, EVALUATION AND ACCOUNTABILITY .................................................................. 48 6. SUMMARY OF RISKS AND MITIGATION ..................................................................................... 49 ANNEX 1: POLICY AND RESULTS MATRIX .......................................................................................... 52 ANNEX 2: IMF RELATIONS ANNEX ..................................................................................................... 55 ANNEX 3: LETTER OF DEVELOPMENT POLICY ..................................................................................... 57 ANNEX 4: ENVIRONMENT AND POVERTY/SOCIAL ANALYSIS TABLE .................................................. 66 ANNEX 5: POVERTY AND SOCIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS ......................................................................... 68 Page 1 The World Bank Angola Growth and Inclusion DPF (P166564) The operation was prepared by an IBRD team led by Norbert Fiess (Lead Economist, GMTA1) and Mazen Bouri (Program Leader, AFCC1). The team included: Pedro Antmann (Lead Energy Specialist, GEE08); Rafael Barroso (Senior Economist, GMTA1); Roger Cunill (Senior Energy Specialist, GEE07); Guilherme Falco (Analyst, GMTCI); Doyle Gallegos (Lead ICT Policy Specialist, GDD11); Silvia Gulino Passera (Operations Analyst, GMTA1); Kjetil Hansen (Senior Public Sector Specialist, GGOCA); Nadia Henriqueta (Consultant); Zenaida Hernandez Uriz (Senior Private Sector Specialist, GFCAC); Alexandra Jarotschkin (Young Professional, GPV01); Graciela Miralles Murciego (Senior Economist, GMTCI); Joseph Kizito (Lead Financial Management Specialist, GGOAC); Masami Kojima (Lead Energy Specialist, GEEXI); Benedicte Leroy De La Briere (Lead Economist, GSP07); Camilo Lombana (Senior Water Supply and Sanitation Specialist, GWA08); Elvira Morella (Senior Energy Specialist, GEE04); Benjamim Mutti (Team Assistant, AFMAO); Juan Pradelli (consultant); Emmanuel Skoufias (Lead Economist, GPV01); Maria do Ceu da Silva Pereira (Senior Financial Sector Specialist, GFCFI); Valeria Salomao Garcia (Senior Financial Sector Specialist, GFCFS); Melanie Trost (Junior Professional Officer, GMTA1); Eric Zapatero (Sr Social Protection Specialist, GSP07) and Claudia Rocio Manrique (Program Assistant, GMTA1). It received guidance and support from Issa Diaw and Carine Clert (Program Leaders, AFCC1). The World Bank Angola Growth and Inclusion DPF (P166564) SUMMARY OF PROPOSED FINANCING AND PROGRAM BASIC INFORMATION Project ID Programmatic If programmatic, position in series P166564 Yes 1st in a series of 3 Proposed Development Objective(s) The Operation will support the Government of Angola to achieve more sustainable and inclusive growth, through (i) a macro-financial and institutional environment that is conducive to private-sector led growth; and (ii) financial and social inclusion. Organizations Borrower: MINISTRY OF FINANCE Implementing Agency: MINISTRY OF FINANCE PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions) SUMMARY Total Financing 500.00 DETAILS International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) 500.00 INSTITUTIONAL DATA Climate Change and Disaster Screening This operation has been screened for short and long-term climate change and disaster risks Overall Risk Rating High Page 3 The World Bank Angola Growth and Inclusion DPF (P166564) . Results Indicator Name Baseline Target (2021) Number of quarterly fiscal accounts published per calendar year, with lags 0 [2018] 4 [2021] no longer than 45 days for each quarter Index score in the RGI 35 [2017] 60 [2021] Share of the total deposit accounts insured by a DGF 0% [2018] 90% [2021] Government transfers to SOEs (operational subsidies, capital transfers) as 5% [2017] 2% [2021] a share of GDP Number of aggregate SOE reports published per calendar year 0 [2018] 2 [2021] Implementation of new Ad hoc price fuel pricing. adjustments not based Implementation of Energy pricing based on market-based costs and utility tariffs based on on cost recovery or utility tariff-setting cost-recovery principle, systematically adjusted market principles mechanism in line with [2018] revenue requirement [2021] Number of enforcement decisions issued by the ARC 0 [2018] 3 [2021] FDI inflows (non-oil sector), as a share of GDP 0.2% [2017] 1% [2021] Number of poor households registered and receiving cash transfers
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