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The Transition Clock Celebratory atmosphere pervades Msallata, Libya, on 93d anniversary of the Republic of Tripolitania UN (Iason Foounten) Libya The Transition Clock BY JULIAN LINDLEY-FRENCH I am proud to stand here on the soil of a free Tripoli and on behalf of the American people I congratulate Libya. This is Libya’s moment, this is Libya’s victory; the future belongs to you. —Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, October 20111 hese are heady days in Libya. In the wake of the slaying of former dictator Muammar Qadhafi on October 21, the National Transitional Council (NTC) moved quickly to issue T a “declaration of liberation.” The October 22 announcement establishes a timetable for the abolishment of the NTC and lays out a road map to political transition. Elections for a public Julian Lindley-French is an Eisenhower Professor of Defence Strategy at the Netherlands Defence Academy, a member of the Strategic Advisory Panel of the United Kingdom Chief of Defence Staff, and a member of the Strategic Advisors Group for the Atlantic Council. PRISM 3, no. 2 FEATURES | 61 LINDLEy-fRENCH national conference are to be held within 8 the critical endstate of political stability. On months, which will in turn appoint a new prime the 12-hour transition clock, Libya is at best minister, an interim government, and a constit- at 3 o’clock. In order for it to keep moving for- uent authority charged with drafting the new ward, much more needs to be done and greater constitution that will then be put to a refer- support must be made available. endum. If the constitution is approved, general This article is thus a snapshot of Libya’s elections will take place within 6 months. transition in November 2011. It considers the achievements thus far and the challenges ahead, the country is awash with weapons and where Libya is now compared to where it and some old scores are being settled needs to be. Now that Qadhafi is dead, a peaceful violently even though the violence is future for Libya looks more assured. Too often in the past, however, the West has declared the final far less than that exercised by the whistle blown when in fact it is only halftime. old regime Given the complex tribal loyalties that make up Libya, a hastily formed new government could Libya’s political transition toward democ- all too easily be tempted to swap one form of racy is already being painted by many in the oppression for another unless a truly representa- West as the first real success of the so-called tive form of government can be established. (and poorly named) Arab Spring, with the now almost forgotten struggle in Tunisia a A Long Road Traveled close second.2 However, the political dust That said, there is much to be positive about has yet to settle on the 2011 War of Libyan in Libya today. What started with the arrest of a Succession. This article considers the state human rights activist in Benghazi on February of the Libyan transition by applying the five 19, 2011, led—some 9 months later—to the endstates of transition, established in 2009 by fall of one of the Arab world’s most oppressive the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) and U.S. regimes headed by a dangerously and increasingly Army Peacekeeping and Stability Operations deranged leader. The fact that the liberation of Institute (PKSOI), and then places the process Tripoli on August 21, 2011, was driven essentially of political transition on a 12-hour transition from the west rather than the east eased fears of an clock.3 Much has been made of transition in all-out civil war driven by visions of a Benghazi- light of efforts in Afghanistan to draw down led supremacy. The liberation of Tripoli took place major combat forces therein by 2014. However, with the city left relatively unscarred. However, transition by nature is entirely context depen- the interim government is a loose confederation of dent. In Libya, it is almost completely driven anti-Qadhafi forces ranging from putative demo- from within itself, with some marginal exter- crats to hard-line Islamists. The country is awash nal support and influence. Transition in Libya with weapons and, in spite of pleas by the new is thus necessarily ambitious, moving from an government, some old scores are being settled vio- illegitimate regime to a legitimate self-sustain- lently even though Human Rights Watch suggests ing regime that is neither a threat to its own the violence is far less than that exercised on a people or others. The NTC/interim govern- daily basis by the old regime. However, the arbi- ment has only just embarked on the road to trary arrests of thousands by the militia, beyond 62 | FEATURES PRISM 3, no. 2 LIBYA: THE TRANSITION CLOCK the control of the new government, point to a Committees to continue their work to ensure a very difficult postconflict period in which the abil- semblance of stability in the transition. ity of the interim government to exert real control The support of the international commu- will prove the decisive factor in transition. nity was essential and, for once, impressively fast. The interim government itself grew rap- Following the seizure of Misrata on February 24, idly out of a group of Benghazi-based human 2011, the United Nations (UN) Security Council rights lawyers and admits that its legitimacy in imposed sanctions on the regime. As Qadhafi’s the country is tenuous at best, despite having forces approached Benghazi on March 17, the declared itself Libya’s sole legitimate representa- UN Security Council authorized “all necessary tive on March 5, 2011. The international legiti- means” under UN Security Council Resolution macy afforded first by Arab states and then the 1973 to be used to protect civilians. Critically, West, most notably Great Britain, France, and Qadhafi had little support within the Arab world, the United States, was critical. Moreover, the and the Arab League was swift to give its backing military support of these three countries proved to Western-led efforts to prevent a massacre in crucial when Benghazi seemed about to fall to Benghazi. Western intervention proved critical Colonel Qadhafi’s military that same month. because it tipped the balance of forces in favor Now the interim government has to find a of the interim government. Although the effect way to bring the many regional and clan inter- was not rapid, the air and sea embargo essentially ests together under what will necessarily be a starved Qadhafi’s forces of resupply, and British, broad political roof. Paradoxically, the very French, and U.S. special forces played a crucial military strategy adopted by the interim govern- role as trainers for the ragtag group of militias that ment might make that goal more complicated made up the NTC forces. This was reinforced by to achieve as the council promoted a decen- the vital role played by the special forces as for- tralized approach to give the impression that ward air observers directing air strikes. Libya was liberated by a simultaneous uprising Equally important was the political solidar- of all Libyan society. Certainly, given the divide ity of the international community. The Chinese and rule strategy employed by the old regime, and Russians grumbled about the North Atlantic it will take a long time before some semblance Treaty Organization (NATO)–led operation of national unity and purpose can be fashioned, overstepping the limits of the UN Security and yet such unity is the all-important commod- Council Resolution. Also, South Africa objected ity upon which successful transition is founded. to the release of funds to the NTC, which it did To its credit, the NTC leadership under not regard as the legitimate government of Libya. former Justice Minister Mustafa Abdul Jalil has Little effort, however, was made to impede the tried to consciously avoid the mistakes made in operations in support of the NTC—for what they Iraq and elsewhere. In some ways, the interim were rapidly became clear. Furthermore, with government’s approach is reminiscent of the Tripoli only 182 miles from NATO’s southern- British in their sector in postwar Germany when most tip, the conditions for a successful air polic- some former Nazi Party members were retained ing war were uniquely in favor of the Alliance. in post to keep essential systems working. Where Air operations began on March 19 with first possible, the interim government has permitted British, French, and U.S. aircraft and then some members of the so-called Revolutionary units from other coalition members halting the PRISM 3, no. 2 FEATURES | 63 LINDLEy-fRENCH armored column that was approaching Benghazi. endstate are far from being realized. Public Thereafter, several thousand sorties were flown order is virtually nonexistent. with surprisingly few leading to the infamous The next year or so will thus act as the pivot collateral damage of old. There were tragedies of for the transition process. The announcement course. One among many took place on April 30, by the NTC on October 22 demonstrates the when a NATO air strike killed Qadhafi’s three importance of political legitimacy via national grandchildren. Some estimates have the death elections. However, before that can happen, the toll in the war as high as 8,000. rules of the game will need to be established with Furthermore, there was concern that the key power brokers. The interim government the issuing of an arrest warrant by the is certainly ambitious having established elections International Criminal Court on June 27 for the Public National Conference by mid-2012.
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