October 2019 Forecast

www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk

OCTOBER 2019

PREAMBLE

Tree of the month to the 27th is the Ivy.

This bush is the vital bush for smaller birds for winter; it provides windproof, waterproof and weatherproof sanctuary when birds get behind the leaves, which are waterproof too. It is a true sanctuary with food and water (off the leaves) at hand. The density of ivy and ivy fruits at this time of the year will give an excellent indicator of how long and cold the coming winter will be. The larger birds also depend on these fruits towards the end of winter, when all else has been eaten. It is these small indicators that in themselves do not mean much, but, when collated with all other such data, form the basis of the methodology here. It is a matter of just walking slowly, observing, noting and then seeing what nature is preparing; This whilst the main berry stocks are already out there, holly, yew, maple and ivy are later than normal, which, to my experience, tells me that these latter fruits are backstops to the main food, when things get really hard in early 2020. Finally, this is the only source of nectar in the plant world over the winter months. Below shows why.

Welcome to the October 2019 website entry, for the weather watchers, the month that gives most information of weather to come, and the only month without a day of prediction, plus too at the end of the month the end of BST and the start of winter darkness.

This entry a little later than normal, but I needed the wind direction on the 29th September to be included, since this will give the predominant wind direction up to 21st December; however I add a vital caveat here in that the wind direction n on November 11th (St Martin) is a most reliable indicator of the wind direction for the whole of the winter through to 21st March (St Benedict); therefore the wind on this date will give the winter. Whilst here the shaded dates at the end of September indicating possible rough stormy weather leading to flooding problems again spot on.

October is the rainiest month of the year over most of the UK (December has this distinction in Scotland), sets up a pattern which seems to be followed by the winter months – stormy at the start and end and relatively fine in the middle. There is a stormy period around the 5th to the 12th with a peak on the 8th/9th most years in the SE and 11th in most of Scotland. The finer period lasts between 16th and 20th most years co-inciding with 18th – St Luke’s day – giving St Luke’s little Summer; which is a period of dry settled weather during the day but not particularly warm with quite often frosty nights. This period is also known as the true Indian Summer period.

The last week of October and the first week of November can be very cold but also bring prolonged stormy weather almost every year from 24th October to the 13th November with peak intensity around 29th (St Simon & St Jude); there is then a lull until 4-5th November when the storms return with fresh intensity. Depressions follow themselves across – or to the north – of Britain, bring much rain from the Atlantic with, as a result milder temperatures than average. Such temperatures with these SW depressions check the fall of autumnal temperatures at the end of October, but, at first there is often some snow in the north (which appears to be the case in 2019). The general weather is dull and cheerless, on average the wettest day in London is the 28th, with nearly twice the rainfall of the 15th.

October too, for 5 days to a week around the 18th October (St Luke) the true Indian Summer ( and not as uninformed scribblers with no knowledge of the subject at all repeatedly inform us any warm period in September). This Indian summer originates from North American Indian (New England Indian tribes) folklore and fact, it being the last time in the year before the winter sets that harvesting, victuals and other vital supplies can be collected. It is also known as St Luke’s Little Summer, consisting of dry settled benign days but with cold frosty nights; it is always ended with storms on the 28th October known as St Simon & St Jude’ day.

On August Bank Holiday Monday on ITV This Morning Show I did another weather stint, which again, by and large drew favourable comment. However some viewers/readers make comment about the content or sparseness of content; I work well with the presenters and the production team, but I thought it helpful to enlighten the readership on the procedure. They give a call as to availability in the morning; that same afternoon there is an editorial meeting for the following day’s show, and about 5pm I am then informed as to whether or not they require me. I then submit script/notes to the production team and from that they select what they desire. The following morning I am collected and taken to London (White City) where I am briefed as to the content for the show and the format – since I am now a regular on the show, rehearsals are not needed. The production team, floor managers and crew are all known as we work as a team, and of course I see the presenters before we start. We then get going on the 7 minutes or so my slot occupies. Having said that, sometimes we go off script, one must never forget you are a guest, and as such the presenters run the show, they know all, sometimes, one has to issue a slight rebuke to bring things back onto track, but you learn as you get wiser!

I attach here the script/notes I submitted for the above show. I hope that these will enlighten as to what I provide and what comes out as the televised live performance:-

“THIS MORNING ITV MONDAY 26th AUGUST 2019

Good morning, thank you for having me back, always a challenge always a pleasure.

My Summer 2019 prediction was for a ‘typically English Summer’ = bit of everything, no two days the same, some hotter period but not the extended extreme heat of 2018, 3 fine days followed by a thunderstorm. Predominantly a shortage of rain everywhere, the east and SE very dry; but when rain arrived it would fall in deluges. There is a gently change in rainfall, in that it is now the norm to get practically a month’s rain in one go, interspaced between long dry periods; such weather causes the ground to get very dry very hard, and when torrential rain arrives localised flooding can and does occur. The last 18 months or so have been all wind from the SW – a warm wind, but in places also wet, the west, Wales, The Lakes and NW Scotland being wettest. This warm air gave the mild autumn, winter and spring and this summer has not been cold,

Christmas Day sayings of sun on this day would provide a good fruit and grain harvest in 2019 – and this has been proven to be correct. The grass growing on 1st January gave the warning of just one hay harvest (June/July) – again proven. Nature controls our weather in conjunction with the moon, I have been doing this now for over 45 years, and apart from the quirks of UK weather (the heat at the end of February, June and now) which are unpredictable and unpredicted, the methodology I have now near perfected is proven. I go out each and every day across the countryside, go out this afternoon and look closely at trees, plants and bushes and nature will tell you the weather 90 to 180 days ahead. So, 90 days takes up to November and 180 days takes us up to February. Look closely at the oak trees for acorns, the holly, yew, ivy and see the berries forming; hawthorn, spindle blackthorn (sloes) already abound, the sycamore, alder, ash, hornbeam, maple, lime are all full of seeds. You have never seen so many rose hips, nuts of every description abound everywhere. Fruit trees are hanging low fruits – true smaller than normal due to lack of rain, but still wonderful; Blackberry harvest par excellence on the way too. Why?

This is nature filling the cupboard and larder for the birds for a long hard cold winter; nature is never wrong, never hurries but everything gets done; we humans are the beneficiaries of this magnificent bounty. So this bounty tells me that the autumn up to the Indian Summer around St Martin’s Little summer [a period of 5 days to a week around the 18th October] will have dry sunny calm days but cold frosty nights – half term time too. After this, the cold arrives, for those living north of Buxton, I will be very surprised if you do not have snow the last week of October into the first week of November (90 days ahead). South of the Birmingham > Norwich line the not as cold, damper too, for after the end of October nature will attempt to replenish the water reserves before the real winter arrives.

There has been a distinct lack of insects this year, which is why the cuckoo arrived early and went early – no insect food. Swallows, martins and swifts were down in numbers (due in part to adverse weather in Spain when they were flying here – and most diverted to the Canaries). Of those that did arrive, again no water to produce the mud to build nests and no insects either, therefore for the greater part most had departed home (Africa) by late July – and included most of the migrant song birds – again no insects. How many flying ants this year?

Despite copious rainfall in some parts, other parts have an acute water shortage, nature will therefore try to replenish the reserves starting September, a wet autumn therefore must be order of the day.

Winter – Christmas Day = no snow. It will be wet, maybe blustery too. However those that need wood for fires, start collecting now, for come the 2nd week of January to the 2nd week of March, easterly, cold snowy winds with drifting snow will predominate – if you though the beast from the east was bad – then you ain’t seen nothing yet. Nature has provided for birds and animals, humans must listen to those who know about such things.

The teasel, hogweed, burdock and other such tall seed plants are very tall this year; this tells me that the ground below will be flooded/snow-covered or frozen. The height of the seeds means that the finches and small birds will have food above the ground below

If the management here can be kind enough, an invite to appear mid-November and I will give you a near perfect winter forecast up to the end of March.

Finally, for the sceptics and disbelievers, three sure signs of winter are here already.The robin is now staking territory in you back garden near the back door where the tablecloth gets shaken. 2. The skins of English Onions are hard and thick (not Spanish onions). 3 alongside the verges the white dead nettle flowers are abundant; all these are 100% bankers for a long hard cold winter.”

STORM NAMES WINTER 2019/2020

Met Office and Met Éireann, along with new partner KNMI, have today revealed the list of storm names for 2019-20.

First introduced by the Met Office and Met Éireann (the meteorological service in the Republic of Ireland) in 2015, the Name our Storms campaign has helped raise awareness of the potential impacts of severe weather in Britain and Ireland before it hits. Now in its fifth year, Met Office and Met Éireann are joined by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), the Dutch national weather forecasting service.

Earlier this summer Met Office and Met Éireann received thousands of suggestions from the public after asking people to send in ideas for future storm names. Working with Met Éireann and KNMI, the list for 2019-20 has been compiled from these suggestions, choosing some of the more popular names along with names that reflect the three nations diversity.

Gerard van der Steenhoven, Director General at Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI):

“We are looking forward to working closely with the UK Met Office and Met Éireann. Storms are not confined to national borders, so it makes sense to give common names to such extreme weather events. As many people are travelling - sometimes on a daily basis - between our countries, the use of common names will make it a lot easier for them to appreciate the hazards represented by a large storm system. For us at KNMI, it is a great privilege to work more closely with our colleagues from Ireland and the UK in communicating the impacts of severe weather.”

Evelyn Cusack, Head of Forecasting at Met Éireann, said: “The naming of storms by National Met Services as well as colour coding weather warnings provides a clear, authoritative and consistent message to the public and prompts people to take action to prevent harm to themselves or to their property .14:01 (UTC+1) on Thu 5 Sep 2019

Sometimes I put my neck on the line (as seen above in the ITV notes), in a manner that gives rise to some very stupid and inane comments, by advance predicting certain weather conditions some 90 to 180 days down the line – I am told repeatedly that this impossible.

So, maybe some real science might help? The methodology I use is the moon lore charts and observations from nature, and 1000 year old tried and tested methodology. I therefore attach an article from The Times the weekend of 8th September; My only comment is that I think the esteemed professor may have under-estimated the cold, my experience tells me that the cold of 1991 might be more appropriate, with just a hint of the cold (and severe black ice) of 1987 winter; whichever, it will be really cold. Needless to say the cold will arrive from the east for most of us.

Taken from the Sunday Times 8th September 2019

Another sign of a long hard winter to come is that local sheep already are growing thick winter fleeces in early September – again another show of nature looking after its own months ahead. Horses and cattle too are growing winter coat

1. A lot of mails concerning Greta Thunberg – the Swedish 16 year old who travels the world, telling everyone else to save it. In parts of France they call her the Ikea girl (St Greta) – work that one out for yourself. My views on global warming are well known and documented; however I have a couple of comments on what she preaches. The first is, who are and what are the aims of her financiers? – She preaches about big business ruining the world, but that same big business finances her globetrotting. That to me appears to be an oxymoron. Second comment is that over the last 800000 years, ice core samples and shell samples reveal a regular sequence of such warmer periods on earth and each caused a rise in CO2, and each reverted to normal in due course, the sole difference with this event is that the CO2 is somewhat higher. Which raises the question what big businesses caused the previous warmer periods? Finally, she comes from a country which is the third biggest exporter of wood and kindred wood products – and it is fact that trees absorb CO2 and help the earth – they are the lungs of the earth - look deeper and you will find the hand of big business involved for wood is the largest foreign currency earner for Sweden. People who live in greenhouses should not throw stones comes to mind. No more mails please on this subject.

The September rainfall was as predicted, wetter than is normal for September, this is nature compensating for the last 12 months of really dry conditions, once again the moon lore weather chart proven to be very accurate, even if it is 1000 years old, sadly too the severe weather conditions of the last weekend in September were also predicted months ago on this website, such was my concern that the entry was highlighted in shaded colours.

The wind direction here in the SE on 29th September started SW up until noon, it then became southerly and during the afternoon swung around to the ESE direction and finally here ended up as WNW – a most unusual direction for the SE. Translated into weather, I have information from the SW that the wind there was wet stormy and from the SW, this ended into mid-Wales; then the wind became NW to Scotland on the western side. North and east Scotland however had cold N winds that extended to Northumberland. Yorkshire had NW winds too and these extended southwards, north Kent had NW winds but the rest had SW winds – a true mixture. I had to dig really deep to find previous such records and found such a report in 1990 – alas this was followed by that severe winter early 1991. The NW wind is bad news, it brings cold weather I fear the fells will get even more rain (since October upto the last week was always going to be wet) then a really cold last week; the cold northerly winds will start to affect north and east Scotland and the NE and slowly percolate southwards to encompass the whole of the east coast. The SW and southern Wales will continue with the wetter than normal conditions. IT is now a case of waiting to see what the wind will be on the St Martin’s day 11th November – which will give us all the predominant wind direction until April at least. Therefore the mild SW winds of the last 18 months or so are now at end, expect much colder weather from here on in.

@David King Edenbridge 30th September 2019 OCTOBER 2020

NEW MOON = 16th @ 2031hrs = Snow if cold enough – else rain Super New Moon 1st QUARTER MOON = 23rd @ 2205hrs = Fair & mild FULL MOON 1st @ 1449hrs = Fair & frosty AND 31st @ 1449 hrs = Fair & mild + BLUE MOON LAST QUARTER MOON 10th @ 0139hrs = Frosty

BST ENDS 25th.

Highest tides 16th to 21st

Apogee 3rd @ 1822hrs AND 30th @1846. Perigee 17th @ 0046hrs.

Met Office Quiet Period 16th to the 19th.

Met Office stormy period 24th to the 13th November Tree of the month up to 27th is the ivy, thereafter the reed. Full moon is called the Hunters moon of Blood moon or Sanguine moon DoP = None this month.

3rd Day of celebration after wine harvest. Apogee @ 1822hrs

11th Vinalia Day New wine testing day.

16th Gallas see notes for 29th September.

17th Perigee @ 0046hrs

18th St Luke St Luke's little summer is a fine day (4 days to a week of lovely weather)

25th BST Ends

28th St Simon & St Jude Marks the end limit of St Luke's little summer. A rainy day. On St Jude's day the oxen may play (end of heavy farm work).

30th Apogee @ 1846hrs

31st Hallowtide If ducks swim at Hallowtide, at Christmas the same ducks will slide The onset of winter and darker time of the year.

MET OFFICE NOTES: 16th to 19th Quiet period. 24th to 13th November a stormy period.

BUCHAN NOTES: none

The full moon this month is called the Hunter's moon.

The tree of the month up to 27th is the Ivy thereafter the reed.

General Notes and Comments

THE Golden month - star of the weather prophets year.

The month with more weather signs than any month, but it has no day of prediction.

All October predictions look forward well into December and the New Year.

October has 19/21 fine days, maybe over-optimistic, but usually more fine than rough.

October forecast signs fit well with days of prediction, and should be taken seriously. Best reputation for long range forecasts.

St Luke usually gives 4 days to a week of lovely weather. (very true) He does however sometimes arrive five days late!

One can reasonably expect a warm period between mid-September and mid- November. Feast of St Simon and St Jude signals the start of a very stormy period, and the end of St Likes summer. It is also claimed there is never a year without rain this day.

Abundance of acorns, dead nettles and thick onion skins in October indicate a hard winter.

Heavy crop of haw-berries and beech nuts indicates a bad winter to come.

31st - Halloween. Has a reputation for being a quiet night.

The garden month - expect downpours of rain.

For every October fog there will be snow in winter, heavy or light according to the fog. Most reliable indeed. Full moon in October without frost, no frost till full moon in November. (a golden rule) If the October moon is born with the points up, the month will be dry. If down, wet. (the old saying being that a moon on its back catches the rain - a moon on its side cannot catch the rain)

If during leaf-fall in October many leaves remain hanging, a frosty winter with much snow will follow. (very true) If in October leaves till hold, the coming winter will be cold (yes).

Late leaf fall, hard in New Year, (true)

If Oak bears its leaves in October there will be a hard winter. [very reliable]

If in the fall of leaves many of them wither on the boughs and hang there, a frosty winter and much snow will follow. (proven yes)

If foxes bark much in October they are calling up great falls of snow. (true even in Cities) (If no foxes or hares in your district watch the sheep. If they cluster together and move slowly, it is a sure sign of snow). Yes - proven with sheep.

If the hare wears a thick coat in October, he shows his wisdom. (lay in a good stock of fuel)

When owls hunt in daylight, expect a hard winter.

If squirrels early mass their hoard, expect a winter like a sword.

When birds and badgers are fat in October, you may expect a cold winter.

If there is snow and frost on October, January will be mild.

If October brings much frost and rain, then January and February will be mild.

Windy October, dry January; warm October, cold February.

If late October and early November are warm and rainy there is a better chance that January and February will be cold and frosty. (Proven from local records)

October wet, March dry. [yes if October above average, March will be below average] October cold, March cold (is more likely from local records). October warm, March colder than average (proven from local records)

The last week in October is the wettest of the year in southern England and the chances of a dry day on the 28th is minimal. [official averages]

Observe the first heavy fog in August and expect a hard frost the same day in October. [check readings]

Much rain in October, much wind/rain in December.

When it freezes and snows in October, January will bring mild weather, but if it is thunder and lightning, the weather will resemble April in temper. If October brings heavy frosts and winds, then January and February will be mild.

Redwings arrive mid-October and Fieldfares the end of October.

In October dung your field and your land its wealth shall yield. The end of summer -leaves turn gold and fall, the chills of autumn herald the onset of winter.

Wine harvest vintage month.

Time of first frosts and final harvest. The greater the harvest, the greater the frost and snow the following winter.

THE FULL MOON THIS MONTH IS CALLED THE HUNTERS MOON.

The tree for the month is Ivy up-to 27th. Thereafter it is reed.

MONTHLY AVERAGES FOR EDENBRIDGE (USING 1981-2010 FIGURES) Mean Max: 16C Mean Min: 6.5C Mean Avg: 11.25C Rainfall: 92.9mm Sunshine: 131.2hrs (day = 4.23hrs)

Whilst I appreciate the above are local figures, it will be an indication of what the averages are, and, of course there will be local variations. Such variations can be found by trawling the various weather websites, or by using the superb data found in the Climatologists Observers Link website.

The following figures are for the average temperature at 12 noon and again at 4pm, taken at the beginning and again at the end of the month. 1st 16C 17C 31st 11.8C 11.3C

Copyright: David King Edenbridge July 2019 DATE Chandler & Gregory Brooks Lamb Buchan Met Office Season Barry & Perry none October 01 1st - 10th frequency 10/9 - 19/11 October 02 of autumn October 03 anti-cycloic remains October 04 in this period October 05 5th - 12th stormy October 06 October 07 October 08 peak day October 09 peak day October 10 October 11 October 12 October 13 October 14 October 15 October 16 16th - 20th 16th - 20th October 17 anti-cyclonic quiet October 18 period October 19 peak day October 20 October 21 October 22 October 23 October 24 24th - 13th Nov stormy 24th - 13th Nov. 24th - 13th October 25 25th - 26th northerly type stormy October 26 26th - 29th high risk period October 27 26th - 29th high risk October 28 26th - 29th high risk October 29 peak day 26th - 29th high risk October 30 late autumn rains and 10/9 - 19/11 October 31 frequent storms autumn Oct-19 Date Day Moon Weather DoP Saint/Holy Other Apogee Equinox Met Buchan Super- Highest Day Day Perigee Eclipse Office moon tides 01/10/2019 T NONE Highest 02/10/2019 W tides 03/10/2019 T 04/10/2019 F 05/10/2019 S 1st Q changeable 06/10/2019 S 1747hrs 07/10/2019 M 08/10/2019 T 09/10/2019 W 10/10/2019 T Apogee 11/10/2019 F Vinalia day 1929hrs 12/10/2019 S 13/10/2019 S FULL Fair & frosty 14/10/2019 M 2207hrs frosty 15/10/2019 T 16/10/2019 W Gallas Quiet 17/10/2019 T Period 18/10/2019 F St Luke 16th 19/10/2019 S to 19th 20/10/2019 S 21/10/2019 M LAST Q Rain/snow if 22/10/2019 T 1339hrs cold enough 23/10/2019 W 24/10/2019 T Stormy 25/10/2019 F Period 26/10/2019 S Perigee 24th 27/10/2019 S BST ENDS 1141hrs to 28/10/2019 M NEW Snow - if cold St Simon & 13th highest 29/10/2019 T 0338hrs enough, else St Jude November tides 30/10/2019 W rain. } 28th - 31/10/2019 T Hallowtide } 31st