October 2019 Forecast
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www.weatherwithouttechnology.co.uk OCTOBER 2019 PREAMBLE Tree of the month to the 27th is the Ivy. This bush is the vital bush for smaller birds for winter; it provides windproof, waterproof and weatherproof sanctuary when birds get behind the leaves, which are waterproof too. It is a true sanctuary with food and water (off the leaves) at hand. The density of ivy and ivy fruits at this time of the year will give an excellent indicator of how long and cold the coming winter will be. The larger birds also depend on these fruits towards the end of winter, when all else has been eaten. It is these small indicators that in themselves do not mean much, but, when collated with all other such data, form the basis of the methodology here. It is a matter of just walking slowly, observing, noting and then seeing what nature is preparing; This whilst the main berry stocks are already out there, holly, yew, maple and ivy are later than normal, which, to my experience, tells me that these latter fruits are backstops to the main food, when things get really hard in early 2020. Finally, this is the only source of nectar in the plant world over the winter months. Below shows why. Welcome to the October 2019 website entry, for the weather watchers, the month that gives most information of weather to come, and the only month without a day of prediction, plus too at the end of the month the end of BST and the start of winter darkness. This entry a little later than normal, but I needed the wind direction on the 29th September to be included, since this will give the predominant wind direction up to 21st December; however I add a vital caveat here in that the wind direction n on November 11th (St Martin) is a most reliable indicator of the wind direction for the whole of the winter through to 21st March (St Benedict); therefore the wind on this date will give the winter. Whilst here the shaded dates at the end of September indicating possible rough stormy weather leading to flooding problems again spot on. October is the rainiest month of the year over most of the UK (December has this distinction in Scotland), sets up a pattern which seems to be followed by the winter months – stormy at the start and end and relatively fine in the middle. There is a stormy period around the 5th to the 12th with a peak on the 8th/9th most years in the SE and 11th in most of Scotland. The finer period lasts between 16th and 20th most years co-inciding with 18th – St Luke’s day – giving St Luke’s little Summer; which is a period of dry settled weather during the day but not particularly warm with quite often frosty nights. This period is also known as the true Indian Summer period. The last week of October and the first week of November can be very cold but also bring prolonged stormy weather almost every year from 24th October to the 13th November with peak intensity around 29th (St Simon & St Jude); there is then a lull until 4-5th November when the storms return with fresh intensity. Depressions follow themselves across – or to the north – of Britain, bring much rain from the Atlantic with, as a result milder temperatures than average. Such temperatures with these SW depressions check the fall of autumnal temperatures at the end of October, but, at first there is often some snow in the north (which appears to be the case in 2019). The general weather is dull and cheerless, on average the wettest day in London is the 28th, with nearly twice the rainfall of the 15th. October too, for 5 days to a week around the 18th October (St Luke) the true Indian Summer ( and not as uninformed scribblers with no knowledge of the subject at all repeatedly inform us any warm period in September). This Indian summer originates from North American Indian (New England Indian tribes) folklore and fact, it being the last time in the year before the winter sets that harvesting, victuals and other vital supplies can be collected. It is also known as St Luke’s Little Summer, consisting of dry settled benign days but with cold frosty nights; it is always ended with storms on the 28th October known as St Simon & St Jude’ day. On August Bank Holiday Monday on ITV This Morning Show I did another weather stint, which again, by and large drew favourable comment. However some viewers/readers make comment about the content or sparseness of content; I work well with the presenters and the production team, but I thought it helpful to enlighten the readership on the procedure. They give a call as to availability in the morning; that same afternoon there is an editorial meeting for the following day’s show, and about 5pm I am then informed as to whether or not they require me. I then submit script/notes to the production team and from that they select what they desire. The following morning I am collected and taken to London (White City) where I am briefed as to the content for the show and the format – since I am now a regular on the show, rehearsals are not needed. The production team, floor managers and crew are all known as we work as a team, and of course I see the presenters before we start. We then get going on the 7 minutes or so my slot occupies. Having said that, sometimes we go off script, one must never forget you are a guest, and as such the presenters run the show, they know all, sometimes, one has to issue a slight rebuke to bring things back onto track, but you learn as you get wiser! I attach here the script/notes I submitted for the above show. I hope that these will enlighten as to what I provide and what comes out as the televised live performance:- “THIS MORNING ITV MONDAY 26th AUGUST 2019 Good morning, thank you for having me back, always a challenge always a pleasure. My Summer 2019 prediction was for a ‘typically English Summer’ = bit of everything, no two days the same, some hotter period but not the extended extreme heat of 2018, 3 fine days followed by a thunderstorm. Predominantly a shortage of rain everywhere, the east and SE very dry; but when rain arrived it would fall in deluges. There is a gently change in rainfall, in that it is now the norm to get practically a month’s rain in one go, interspaced between long dry periods; such weather causes the ground to get very dry very hard, and when torrential rain arrives localised flooding can and does occur. The last 18 months or so have been all wind from the SW – a warm wind, but in places also wet, the west, Wales, The Lakes and NW Scotland being wettest. This warm air gave the mild autumn, winter and spring and this summer has not been cold, Christmas Day sayings of sun on this day would provide a good fruit and grain harvest in 2019 – and this has been proven to be correct. The grass growing on 1st January gave the warning of just one hay harvest (June/July) – again proven. Nature controls our weather in conjunction with the moon, I have been doing this now for over 45 years, and apart from the quirks of UK weather (the heat at the end of February, June and now) which are unpredictable and unpredicted, the methodology I have now near perfected is proven. I go out each and every day across the countryside, go out this afternoon and look closely at trees, plants and bushes and nature will tell you the weather 90 to 180 days ahead. So, 90 days takes up to November and 180 days takes us up to February. Look closely at the oak trees for acorns, the holly, yew, ivy and see the berries forming; hawthorn, spindle blackthorn (sloes) already abound, the sycamore, alder, ash, hornbeam, maple, lime are all full of seeds. You have never seen so many rose hips, nuts of every description abound everywhere. Fruit trees are hanging low fruits – true smaller than normal due to lack of rain, but still wonderful; Blackberry harvest par excellence on the way too. Why? This is nature filling the cupboard and larder for the birds for a long hard cold winter; nature is never wrong, never hurries but everything gets done; we humans are the beneficiaries of this magnificent bounty. So this bounty tells me that the autumn up to the Indian Summer around St Martin’s Little summer [a period of 5 days to a week around the 18th October] will have dry sunny calm days but cold frosty nights – half term time too. After this, the cold arrives, for those living north of Buxton, I will be very surprised if you do not have snow the last week of October into the first week of November (90 days ahead). South of the Birmingham > Norwich line the not as cold, damper too, for after the end of October nature will attempt to replenish the water reserves before the real winter arrives. There has been a distinct lack of insects this year, which is why the cuckoo arrived early and went early – no insect food. Swallows, martins and swifts were down in numbers (due in part to adverse weather in Spain when they were flying here – and most diverted to the Canaries).