WEATHERHEAD EAST ASIAN INSTITUTE COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY

CO-SPONSORED BY THE APEC STUDY CENTER, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY

WEATHERHEAD POLICY FORUM CAN AMERICA REBUILD THE CRUMBLING STATE OF U.S.-ASIA RELATIONS? Kishore Mahbubani Former Ambassador of the Republic of to the and Dean, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore Tuesday, March 1, 2005

Kishore Mahbubani, former Permanent Representative of the Republic of Singapore to the United Nations and current Dean of the newly founded Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, addressed the first Weatherhead Policy Forum of 2005 at Columbia University on March 1, 2005. Ambassador Mahbubani, a noted author whose works include the provocative Can Asians Think? (1998), presented an external perspective on the state of America’s relationship with the outside world based on his new book, Beyond the Age of Innocence. Ambassador Mahbubani’s address looked at previous American actions that built “reservoirs of good will” that ultimately assisted America in its ideological victory in the Cold War, especially in Asia: its sharing of the “American dream” with the world; its openness to foreign students; the international order built by the United States after 1945; and, finally, the stabilizing effects of its military presence in East Asia. However, the end of the Cold War has brought changes, and the gulf between America’s self-percep- tion and the way it is seen in the Islamic world, and China in particular, demonstrate the dwindling of those good will reservoirs. Ambassador Mahbubani warned that in a shrinking world, America’s power is increasingly perceived with hostility. To counter misperceptions of America’s role in the world, he called on the United States to enable China’s peaceful emergence as an economic power; help establish a “success story” in the Islamic world, as postwar Japan was in Asia; redouble its commitment to the multilateral order it created in 1945; evaluate better the unintended consequences of its domestic policies; and rethink its restrictive visa policy so that immigrant success stories in America will continue to inspire people abroad. This Weatherhead Policy Forum was jointly sponsored by the Weatherhead East Asian Institute and the APEC Study Center, both at Columbia University. Weatherhead East Asian Institute Director Professor Xiaobo Lü moderated the forum. This is a report of Ambassador Mahbubani’s presentation and the dis- cussions that followed. A copy of this report can also be found at WEAI’s Web site, www.columbia.edu/ cu/weai, or APEC’s Web site, www2.gsb.columbia.edu/apec. 2 Weatherhead East Asian Institute

PRESENTATION I should also begin by emphasizing where I stand. My biases are over- Kishore Mahbubani: When I was the whelmingly pro-American. There is Permanent Secretary of the Foreign vivid confirmation in this room: my Ministry of Singapore, one of my col- wife is an Irish-American from New leagues, another Permanent Secretary, Jersey, and her sister is here today, and decided to go to China and call on his my three children are dual nationals counterpart, the Vice Minister of the who carry American and Singaporean Chinese government. When my col- passports. So in that sense, I have a league introduced himself, the Chinese direct contact with American society as translator looked very puzzled and said I speak about it. At the same time, the to the Vice Minister, “This is Mr. Tan— reason why I can take this pro- America, after having he says he’s the eternal typist from American stand is because my life has spent so many decades Singapore.” So if China and Singapore, changed, and the world that I saw two majority Chinese societies, can when I grew up in Singapore and in accumulating so much have difficulties in communication, you the region has benefited from American good will, especially in can imagine why the difficulties of policies. I can speak from personal communication across the Pacific are, in experience of the dramatic contribu- East Asia, is in danger many ways, even greater. tions that America has made to the of losing these reservoirs This is the moment when America, world. after having spent so many decades First, if I had to point to the factors of good will. accumulating so much good will, espe- that led to this accumulation of good cially in East Asia, is in danger of losing will, America in some ways shared the these reservoirs of good will and hav- American dream with the world as a ing them replaced, unfortunately, with whole. Most Americans think that ill will. We may actually be at a tipping America is a country that is separated point. from the rest of the world by two great oceans. But the American dream never stopped at the American borders. In fact, it traveled around the world. And I can tell you that when I was a young boy, when the first black and white TV set appeared in our house in the 1960s, we watched reruns of American pro- grams—My Three Sons, Bonanza, and so on. When watching American TV, we also absorbed the American ethos and the belief that we could also succeed in our lives, that our destiny was not determined at birth. For many Asian societies, the idea that you can rise above the class and the caste you were born into is a revolutionary one. Sharing that dream transformed the lives of many East Asians. You saw the results of this dream in what I call the second factor that led to the accumulation of good will. In the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, America encouraged Asians to come and study in this country. Columbia University took in thousands of Asian students. And these students learned not just the technical details of whatever discipline Kishore Mahbubani, Dean, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore Can America Rebuild the Crumbling State of U.S.-Asia Relations? 3

or vocation they chose to study; they with this new spirit of optimism. So the also absorbed the American work ethic, question is, “When and why did the the American culture, the belief that attitude toward America begin to you could transform the world and change?” I know that it is conventional make it a better place. After they gradu- wisdom to believe that all this was due ated, these students brought this belief to the Bush administration, and that if back to their home countries, and they the Bush administration had not been provided the seeds that essentially have elected, there would not have been this transformed East Asia into what it is growth of anti-Americanism around the today. If you want to pinpoint the criti- world. cal reasons why East Asia has My analysis is a different one. I succeeded compared to many other point to the impact of American power parts of the world, you can look at the in a shrinking world. What America number of Asian students who have does or does not do has an impact on come to study in the United States. As lives all over the world. The big change of now there are 80,000 Indian students in America’s attitudes toward the world and 60,000 Chinese students in North took place when, having won the Cold American universities, and you can War, America decided it could walk imagine the impact that these thou- away from the world. sands of students will have when they I remember a remark that James go back to their societies. Baker made at the end of the Cold War, The third factor that led to the accu- which many have already forgotten: mulation of good will toward America “We can now create a community of was the nature of the international democracies from Vancouver to order that America created at the height Vladivostok.” This statement is striking of its power at the end of World War II. because he included most of the coun- Having won the Cold War, In 1945, no nation could challenge the tries in that belt, leaving out only one, America decided it could United States. It had, by some esti- Japan, which had been a member of mates, 50 percent of the world’s GNP the community of democracies; and it walk away from the world. and the capacity to do whatever it was probably excluded because it was wanted. It would have been just as not Western. If you reflect on that state- likely for America to behave like any ment, you realize that there was a other European power at the height of desire to go back to a more comfort- its power and colonize the rest of the able universe of the Western world. democracies and walk away from the The remarkable thing is that America more uncomfortable parts of the world. decided to do the exact opposite. It And this was not just reflected in state- forced the European powers to decolo- ments; it was reflected in the deeds that nize and set the first stage for the took place at that point in time. liberation of Asia. And that contribution In the case of the Islamic world, I is still remembered by people of my think the fateful decision that America generation. made was to walk away from The fourth and final factor is the Afghanistan, which had been the front role of the American military. American line of freedom. As soon as the Soviet military power has played an enor- Union was defeated, Afghanistan was mously stabilizing role, especially in left to fall of its own accord, and you East Asia. One reason why you have know the consequence of that: the not seen great power conflicts in the forces that were unleashed in region is because of the overwhelming Afghanistan to defeat the Soviet Union strength and influence of the American were left to fester and grow, and that is military. There were the Korean and how Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda Vietnam Wars, but the region as a emerged, and clearly bin Laden took whole has been geopolitically stable, by advantage of Afghanistan being aban- and large. doned to create the movement that So these are the factors that have led eventually led to the downing of the to Asia to thrive, succeed, and grow World Trade Center towers here. 4 Weatherhead East Asian Institute

The remarkable thing about Osama not challenge them in any way.” the means to trip up China, and they bin Laden is that you can see him as an This is a strange reaction, because work on that belief that this is going to isolated individual who represents an there is no reason that the Chinese happen. extreme point of view. However, what I population should have developed this If you want concrete evidence, look have found as I ask my friends in the distrust toward America; if you look at at how China has recently proposed a Islamic world is quite the contrary; his the growth and success of China, espe- free trade agreement with Southeast name comes up without fail as the single cially in the last 15 years, a large part of Asia. Driving the proposal to improve most respected figure in the Islamic it is due to China’s participation in a trade relations with all its neighbors is world, especially among the masses. This multilateral order that was created by China’s hope that by buying political is true in all parts of the Islamic world, America, due to China playing by rules insurance today, it will help prevent whether it be Nigeria, Morocco, Pakistan, of the WTO and accumulating a $100 America from successfully encircling Bangladesh, Malaysia, or Indonesia. billion trade surplus with the United China in the future. The Chinese would What happened? How did this huge States today. With all of these factors not have gone out of their way to carry section of humanity begin to identify that America created that allowed China out these policies if they did not with the figure who only had a destruc- to grow and prosper, the logical out- believe that there was a greater danger tive mission against a country that was growth would have been for Chinese that they might face in the long run. perceived to be a positive force in the society to develop a positive rather than In the Islamic world the problem world? There has been a sea change in a negative attitude toward the United unfortunately is much deeper. The time the attitudes of the Islamic world States. But instead, in the last 15 years, has come for the world and especially toward America between the end of the there has been a trend in the opposite America to try and encourage the suc- Cold War and the events of 9/11. direction. If you look at America’s cess of at least one Islamic society. You Let me turn now to another large record objectively, it has by and large need to have one Japan in the Islamic section of humanity, the Chinese popu- been a positive force on the world world, or one Taiwan, Hong Kong, or lation. Relations between the United stage; it would have been much more Singapore; one success story that can States and China might appear to be natural for the world to have been stand as a model in the Islamic world. stable, with the government-to-govern- awash with streams of pro-Americanism. That would demonstrate to the Islamic ment relations having their ups and Instead, you see in many parts of the states that they too can grow and devel- downs. However, by and large, we do world, and certainly in the Islamic world op, because, frankly, many of them not see great division between these and China, a growing resentment of believe that this current world order is two societies. America and American power. tilted against them. If this support can But if you go beneath the surface, This is all a result of a global struc- be made into deliberate American poli- you find a surprising degree of Chinese tural problem in which the world is cy, it will buy us decades of peace. suspicion of the United States. I will try shrinking, while America remains very The second prescription is for to illustrate this with the bombing of strong and powerful. These two forces America to rediscover the virtues of the the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in lead to a situation in which American multilateral order that it created in 1945. May 1999 during the Kosovo War. I power impacts the daily lives of many The incredible decline in the fortune of have spoken to many of the key people across the planet, and this the United Nations provides a vivid American policymakers who were in impact leads to a sense of resentment reminder of why it is important to office then and I asked them what hap- over America’s refusal to recognize how retain a stable multilateral order. When pened during that event, and the and when its power impacts on other the United States criticizes the UN, it answer to me was always, “Kishore, populations. This explains the growing thinks that it is only criticizing a build- obviously it was a mistake. Why should negative attitude toward America. ing, a Secretariat, a Secretary-General the United States want to bomb the What can be done about this? I still on the east side of New York City. But Chinese embassy in Belgrade? It doesn’t believe that not all is lost; I believe we the damage done when the United make any sense, it was an accident, can still salvage the situation, that we States attacks the UN is far more funda- and that’s very obvious.” can reverse this trend in attitudes mental, because many states around the At the same time, I’ve spoken to toward America. First, America has to world rely on the order of the United Chinese policymakers at the highest decide that a stable world order in Nations to give them a certain sense of level, Chinese professionals, and work- which other countries can grow and worldwide stability. ing-class Chinese, and so far not 90 prosper is also in America’s interest. Wars have become less common percent, nor99 percent, but 100 percent Sadly, if you look at global attitudes between historically conflictual states as have responded, “We know that that and beliefs, many people now believe a result of the 1945 order that the bombing of the Chinese embassy in that America doesn’t want them to suc- United States created. That order was a Belgrade was a deliberate move by the ceed. In private, many Chinese great gift to the world, and it should be United States to send a signal to China policymakers are convinced that as they preserved. But for it to be preserved, that we cannot defy them and we can- grow and succeed, America will find the United States has to show the same Can America Rebuild the Crumbling State of U.S.-Asia Relations? 5

commitment that it did in 1945 and cre- ate a rules-based regime that applies not just to other countries in the world, but also to itself. Unfortunately, the per- ception that is growing in the rest of the world is that America wants a rules- based regime that applies to other countries, but not to the United States. This exceptionalism is going to under- mine the multilateral order, which, frankly, is very precious to the world. The third prescription arises from what I call the law of “intended” conse- quences. When decisions are made in Washington, D.C., with only American considerations in mind, these decisions DISCUSSION Left to right: Kishore Mahbubani, inevitably have a global impact. The Xiaobo Lü simplest example is the case of cotton Xiaobo Lü: One of the major foreign subsidies. When the United States pro- policy challenges for the United States vides cotton subsidies to 25,000 farmers is managing the rise of China. I wonder in Southern states, it seems to be an if I can use three recent cases that all internal decision. But the immediate intertwine economic, geopolitical, and result is that ten million people become business interests, and ask you to com- impoverished in West Africa as a result ment on the larger picture. First is the of these subsidies, so there is a direct licensing for Westinghouse to compete causal relationship between subsidies in in the Chinese nuclear power sector. America and impoverishment in Africa. Second is the EU’s intention to lift the The United States should be aware of embargo on arms sales to China and the “intended” consequences of its the U.S. effort to stop it. Third is the I believe we can still actions, because these lead to rising Chinese firm Lenovo’s purchase of the anti-Americanism. I stress that they are IBM division that produces personal salvage the situation, that “intended” consequences, because computers, which I personally think is we can reverse this trend American policymakers are aware of not going to be permitted. Taken these consequences. together, according to the Chinese, in attitudes toward My fourth and final point, which America does not want the rise of America. First, America may be the easiest for America to carry China. So how do you think America out, is to keep the American dream should handle this? I wonder if some of has to decide that a stable alive here: to continue to show the the policies are self-defeating. world order in which other world that if you arrive in America, you can do well, and you can succeed. Mahbubani: These are examples of countries can grow and Every time an Indian arrives here and how the U.S.-China relationship will prosper is also in succeeds, he becomes a legend in his unfold. The big difference in the way own country; every time an Armenian the Chinese and the United States make America’s interest. arrives here and becomes like Vartan these decisions is that the Chinese try Gregorian, a success in this country, he to take a coordinated view. They look becomes a legend back home. These at the big picture, and they figure out success stories in America have a posi- how they can use each decision to fit tive effect all over the world. This is into their grand national strategy. In the why the recent visa policy was very case of the United States, the decisions damaging, because you were cutting off are made by sectoral interests, driven the flow of a group of people who, by the most powerful lobbies. Often, frankly, have benefited not just there’s no coordinated plan on the part America, but the rest of the world, and of the United States to send any kind of made it a better place. message to China. This can lead to an enormous amount of misunderstanding, because 6 Weatherhead East Asian Institute

every time the United States makes a believed the United States would try to decision, the Chinese read it as part of go after China. If there is no such coor- a bigger strategy. And certainly the EU dinated strategy in the United States, arms embargo is basically symbolic. For you then have this incredible suspicion the United States, it’s not a big thing, in China that something is wrong and but for China, it’s very important, that something has to be done. because it sends a very powerful signal. But behind all of these issues, the Question: What do you think the U.S. most fundamental question in the policy toward Taiwan should be? A lot minds of the Chinese policymakers is, of the Chinese attitudes and views of will the United States allow China to the United States stem from China’s emerge and become a major economic policy toward Taiwan. power, as it allowed the emergence of Germany and Japan; or will the United Mahbubani: If I wanted to use a very States decide that the emergence of simple expression to describe the best China could lead to the displacement of American policy toward Taiwan, I Kishore Mahbubani the United States as the most important would say, “let sleeping dogs lie.” The power in the world? As you know, the status quo is not uncomfortable to National Security Strategy says that the either the United States or China. The primary aim of the United States is to Chinese have a long-term national inter- prevent the emergence of any power est in Taiwan’s succeeding because it that could displace the United States. can still serve as a beacon for China. The most dangerous thing And, incidentally, by current trends, in Taiwan’s success was not seen as a purchasing power parity terms, the threat to China, and China would have that can happen is for all Chinese economy will be larger than been quite happy to let Taiwan grow, of us to believe that there the U.S. economy by either 2020 or as long as it did not try to secede and 2025. So the only question the Chinese gain independence from China. Taiwan is nothing we can do to have is, will the United States allow this is by far the biggest investor in China, change the attitudes of 1.2 to happen, or will they block it? and this is a great paradox—the eco- Now the United States can send a nomic relationship is incredibly close, billion Muslims. very clear signal that, if China behaves and yet the political relationship is like Japan and Germany did, then it will increasingly difficult. be happy to see the emergence of a The problems in Taiwan have arisen peaceful China. I know that signal has because of the actions of its president not been sent, because Chinese policy- Chen Shui-bian and the Chinese belief makers believe that America has the that he is trying to gain independence. opposite intention; that it doesn’t want The difficulty over the Taiwan issue is to see the rise of China. So everything very simple. No Chinese leader can the United States does—from allowing afford domestically to be seen as being Falun Gong activities, implicitly or soft on Taiwan if there is a move explicitly supporting the democratic toward independence. So as soon as movements in Taiwan, or supporting there is any sense that Taiwan is mov- dissidents or movements in Tibet—are ing toward independence, China has all seen as part of a coordinated strate- got to send very hard signals. One gy. The fundamental problem is the thing the Chinese have made clear is depth of this suspicion. If we don’t work that even though they want to avoid to remove that suspicion, inevitably, we war, they will go to war over Taiwan. are bound to have accidents. So if they have drawn a line in the So far, what has saved the U.S.- sand, why should others cross it? China relationship is 9/11. When 9/11 The best thing we can do is let the Xiaobo Lü, Director, Weatherhead East happened, there was a palpable sigh of status quo continue as long as possible, Asian Institute relief among Chinese leaders, because because when, in due course, Chinese they knew the United States would society becomes like any other modern have other preoccupations. But this society, when the differences between huge sense of relief in Beijing was an Taiwan and China disappear, that prob- indication that the Chinese leaders lem will solve itself. Can America Rebuild the Crumbling State of U.S.-Asia Relations? 7

Question: When you say that there is a of a decision that was made back in Chinese veto. Albright called on the shrinking globe and that the United 1991. That’s why the first World Trade Chinese ambassador and sent a signal States is dominant, when hasn’t this Center bombing occurred in 1993. of respect. Hence, China did not veto. been the case since 1945? The United Obviously, some actions of the Bush I’m just giving examples of what it States has always acted, in certain administration have aggravated the situ- takes to bring China along in these situ- instances, in precipitous ways. So when ation, but the reason they have ations. did the United States really depart from aggravated the situation is because of The Communist Party that is running its values? There is always a high level the underlying pools of discontent and China today is the same Communist of confusion and lack of coordination suspicion. party of Mao. But it behaves more and in this country, particularly with regard The most dangerous thing that can more like a capitalist party. It has trans- to our pluralism. So couldn’t one say happen is for all of us to believe that formed itself. It has transformed China. that it is with the onset of the Bush there is nothing we can do to change The Chinese people today are not Administration that there has been a the attitudes of 1.2 billion Muslims, being told that the great mission of fundamental change in American policy because within that community the vast China is to go out and conquer the and the American approach to the majority of them, if they had a choice, world. The great mission of the Chinese world? would want to live the American people is to succeed, modernize, and dream. But they believe that the world become a member of the developed Mahbubani: During the Cold War, the does not provide opportunities for nations club. United States made an enormous effort Islamic societies to grow and thrive. That major decision by China is a to distinguish itself from the Soviet They may be wrong in that belief, but huge gift to the world. Because the last Union. One of the reasons that the they do believe it. Television pipes into thing we want is China doing the exact Soviet Union eventually lost was the Islamic world news of Palestinians opposite, trying to repeat what the because the cost of empire was too being killed, Bosnians being killed. Soviet Union did. So if you judge China great. The United States never declared Soon they begin to believe that losses objectively in terms of what it actually itself to be an empire and always of Muslim lives do not matter to the does, China has an enormous vested proudly held to the belief that the West. Whatever you do, you must not interest in a stable world order. countries that were on American side underestimate the intelligence and Especially because the next 20 years are were there by choice. sophistication of the six billion people the window of opportunity for China, America raised a lot of expectations who judge America daily on the basis so it will bend over backwards to pre- in many parts of the world by standing of its actions. If you go to a typical serve stability. for those values. Many countries felt bazaar in Pakistan, or in Turkey or in And in the final point, after the abandoned and suffered in the 1990s Bangladesh, you would be amazed at recent Iraq war, the United States want- after they were dropped by the United the amount of discussion that takes ed to get a subsequent UN Security States very abruptly at the end of the place on these foreign policy issues. Council resolution to endorse the occu- Cold War. pation of Iraq. American diplomats can The best example is Pakistan, which Question: Although there is American tell you that the Chinese were among believed it was indispensable to exceptionalism and misbehavior, at the the most helpful diplomats in the American interests. When the Cold War same time there has been misbehavior Security Council. They actually assisted ended, America discovered that on China’s part. Can you comment on America at that point in time. So it is Pakistan was not a democracy, and it certain Chinese actions, like the refusal not in their interest to disrupt the world cut off Pakistan. This came as a shock to vote in favor of the invasion of Iraq order as it exists. to the Pakistani establishment. America in 1991, and also the efforts of the has rediscovered Pakistan after 9/11, Chinese government, along with its Question: You said the most appropri- but no Pakistani policymaker can stand Russian counterpart, to block the ate strategy for the United States would up and say “America is our true friend humanitarian intervention in Serbia over be to find one Islamic nation that it now, and we must stand by America all Kosovo? could support as a beacon of hope for the way.” Even sophisticated Pakistanis the rest of the Islamic world. I was felt seduced, used, and abandoned by Mahbubani: From the Chinese per- wondering what nation you had in the United States. There are other coun- spective, an abstention on the Gulf War mind. If it is Turkey, is Turkey a model tries, too: Thailand, Indonesia, and so was a huge concession. And all that the that other Islamic nations would be forth. United States wanted was an absten- interested in following, or is it too secu- After the end of the Cold War, there tion. When Madeleine Albright was lar? If not Turkey, what other nations was a break with America’s relations Ambassador to the UN, the United would you have in mind? with the world. 9/11 happened not States wanted a resolution to endorse because of a decision that was made the U.S. intervention in Haiti. The thing Mahbubani: I would frankly be very after Bush was elected; it was because the United States feared most was a happy if any Islamic society succeeded. 8 Weatherhead East Asian Institute

Turkey is clearly closest to succeeding, Guantanamo was a great shock to especially if it is admitted to the EU. If the Chinese intellectuals. They could Turkey succeeds, it will make a huge not believe that the United States could difference psychologically. The psycho- do such a thing. From the Chinese CREDITS logical point is one that Americans point of view, after Guantanamo, even don’t understand, but an African ambas- the Chinese intellectuals who were very EDIT0R sador once said to me “You Asians are critical of the Chinese government said Michael Roston so lucky. At least you have Japan or in private, “So what’s the difference— Taiwan to inspire you. We in Africa we treat people badly, they treat people ASSOCIATE EDITORS don’t have a success story. If we had badly. We are the same.” one, we could follow it.” That’s a very On the question of human rights, if Yvonne Thurman important dimension. you look at the conditions of the ordi- Andy Wanning But after Turkey, Malaysia’s success nary Chinese people, and you look at would be a huge gift to the Islamic the famines, wars, revolutions, and inva- PHOTOGRAPHY world. Beyond that the other candidate sions that China has suffered, and you Madge Huntington might be Indonesia. The recent success- measure the life of the ordinary Chinese ful elections in Indonesia were against what they have experienced, Andy Wanning remarkable. I was quite amazed. After these are the best years that China has the seven years of instability that experienced in 200 years, by far. PRODUCTION Indonesia went through from 1997 to At the point in time when the living Office of University Publications 2004, after all the terrorist incidents that conditions of the Chinese have never Columbia University we saw in Bali and elsewhere, to have been better, that is when the rest of the such a peaceful election carried out in world says its human rights record is such a large country with such a posi- very bad. Clearly, China has to improve WEATHERHEAD EAST ASIAN tive result was an enormous its human rights record. But is China INSTITUTE achievement. All of these successes heading in the right direction or the 420 West 118th Street, 9th Floor, have, over a time, a cumulative positive wrong direction? If you observe the MC 3333 effect on the Islamic psyche, and we quality of life and openness of Chinese New York, NY 10027 should encourage them. society, you will agree things are chang- Phone: 212-854-2592 ing in the right direction. Before Question: The two big issues between Guantanamo, if you pushed the Fax: 212-749-1497 the United States and China are human Chinese, they would admit the need to E-mail: [email protected] rights and Taiwan. Human rights is not improve. Today, if you push them on Web site: something we’re going to come to blows human rights, they push back very hard, www.columbia.edu/cu/weai over. But the situation in the Taiwan because they feel America no longer has Straits could easily erupt. Now your ear- any moral credibility to criticize them. APEC STUDY CENTER lier answer as to what U.S. policy should In answer to your second question be sounds to me like a description of about letting sleeping dogs lie, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY what U.S. policy is. You used the phrase American policy on Taiwan is not nec- 322 Uris Hall, MC 5998 “let sleeping dogs lie”—the problem is essarily a simple straight line. The New York, NY 10027 that the sleeping dogs are waking up. It Chinese government has a very sophis- Phone: 212-854-3976 really puts Washington in a pretty awk- ticated reading of each nuance in Fax: 212-678-6958 ward position. We can’t just give both American policy toward Taiwan. E-mail: [email protected] sides sleeping pills and say go back to This is why China has been very sleep. So what, specifically, do you think happy with America’s policy on Taiwan Web site: the United States can do to handle the since 9/11. In theory, nothing has www2.gsb.columbia.edu/apec situation? changed in American policy, but the amount of pressure that the United Mahbubani: First, on human rights, States has put on Chen Shui-bian has Chinese intellectuals told me they resent never been greater. The Chinese are America’s criticism of China’s human sophisticated enough to know that the rights record. But in the past, even United States is trying its best to let the though they resented it, they at least sleeping dogs lie. China itself is not accepted that America set the standard asking for any dramatic change; it for what respect of human rights should would in fact like to see a continuation be, and had a moral right to lecture. of events of the last three years.