Exploring the Integration of Protestants in Mexico since the Southern Reformation: Competition and Conflict Center on Democracy, Development, and the Rule of Law Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies Stanford University Advised by: Alberto Díaz-Cayeros, PhD Senior Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute Anna Blue Class of 2016 | B.A. International Relations TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract Acknowledgements I. Chapter One: Introduction Framing My Research Question Why This Research Is Important II. Chapter Two: Literature Review The Origin of the Southern Reformation Defining Southern Reformation Protestantism Catholic and Protestant Competition III. Chapter Three: Methods and Findings Introduction to Study Design The Data Set: INEGI, Oaxaca, and the Sample Population Research Tools and Findings Other Interesting Findings IV. Chapter Four: Conclusion A Review of the Findings Catholic-Protestant Relations: Failed Integration and the Implications for the Mexican Government The Limitations of My Study Correlation, Not Causation: Other Theories Further Research, Lingering Questions Conclusion: Looking Ahead Appendices 2 ABSTRACT For decades, Mexico has existed as a stoutly and loyally Catholic country with Catholic roots and Catholic values. In the early 1990s, Mexico confronted the Southern Reformation, a phenomenon characterized by many waves of Methodist, Evangelical, Pentecostal, and other Protestant sect missionaries to areas throughout the country. The Southern Reformation produced a great number of converts and new faithful, increasing the share of Protestants in Mexico to 9%. The existing body of literature on the effects of the Southern Reformation varies; while some experts argue that increased Protestantism greatly benefitted communities because competition for worshippers forced the Catholic Church to reform, others point to the fact that different value systems and political ideas between the two types of Christianity created conflict. This thesis builds on the current existing literature with a study of religious violence in rural communities in Oaxaca. A thorough and original analysis of the 2010 Mexican national census reveals that there is significant correlation between the increased rates of Protestantism in Oaxaca and religious violence, suggesting that Protestants new and old have clashed with the traditional Catholic make-up of Mexico. I make the case that the correlation between Protestantism and violence, as well as the extreme fractionalization of Oaxaca localities, is evidence that Protestants have not been well integrated into Mexican society. I conclude this study with a brief review of the limits of my findings and their implications for Mexico and its national government. 3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS It is hard to imagine that a little under two months ago, I was a phone call and an email away from leaving the CDDRL program, dropping my thesis, and saying goodbye to one of the most intellectually-fulfilling projects that I have taken on in my time as a Stanford student. This senior honors thesis has not been the experience that I thought it would be. Words did not come easily and I did not spend late nights excitedly typing away. Instead, I struggled through grueling periods, during which I stared at my computer screen, and I changed my topic more times than I can count on my two hands. This year, I was personally and academically challenged more than ever before and I am grateful for that. I have many people to thank for helping me get to this point. First of all, I want to thank my advisor, Alberto Díaz-Cayeros for his endless support. I came to Professor Díaz-Cayeros earlier this year with really nothing to show and he helped build me back up and light the fire under me to push through the final deadline. Not only was he always patient, especially as he explained to me some of the more nuanced complexities of Mexican history that I was missing, but his positive attitude made it easy to bounce ideas off of him. Next, I want to thank Professor Larry Diamond for encouraging me to write a paper with CDDRL in the first place. I can’t imagine where I would be without his mentorship and guidance. I am so appreciative of the CDDRL program for spoiling me and introducing me to the research methods I need to pursue my future career. Then, I am indebted to my friends and family. I owe a ton to my mom and dad, both of whom sent me loving text messages that generated the fuel I needed to push through one more page than I thought I could write. I can’t imagine having completed this study without Reed Johnson and Danny O’Neel, who taught me to code (somewhat) and to use R Studio, a program that I never thought I would touch with a ten foot pole in my four years as a fuzzie at Stanford. I want to thank Angela Zhang, who helped me work through my self-doubt and who reminded me over and over again that I would regret not writing a thesis. She was right. Of course, huge shout out to my fellow cohort of CDDRL honors students – I can’t believe we survived together through all of the ritzy dinners and thesis writing parties. I can’t wait to see all of the amazing things they do! Finally, muchas gracias Mexico, for being one of the most fascinating, stimulating, and puzzling countries that an International Relations student could ever fall in love with! 4 Chapter One I. Introduction Mexico, a country that has been devoutly Catholic since the beginnings of Spanish colonialism, has endured a divisive religious history that dates back to the start of the Mexican Revolution. The armed struggle, which lasted from about 1910 to 1920 and originated as revolt against the regime of Dictator Porfirio Diaz, pitted several paramilitary and rebel groups against each other in a violent civil war. Most importantly, the Mexican Revolution created huge rifts between conservative elites and radical peasant and middle class groups, a divide that foreshadowed a political showdown that would later endanger the dominance of the Roman Catholic Church. The 1917 Constitution of Mexico, instituted during the Revolution by radical, anti-clerical secularists tired of traditional hierarchy and conservatism, limited the participation in civil life of religious officials and organizations because the country’s new leaders feared that religion would hold back Mexico’s progress. Article 3 of the Constitution effectively sentenced the Church to years of underground operation despite the fact that a large majority of the Mexican population remained strongly loyal to their Catholic faith. Years of underground partisan work1 was no easy feat for an organization that was almost more political than religious. The Church had long acted as if it had a larger responsibility to Mexican society to speak and to guide the country on a wide range of financial, social, and moral issues (Camp, 1997). The Church’s proactive stance dragged the institution into an ideological 1 Although federal government pressure on the Catholic Church during most of the 20th century was not as proscribed as, for instance, the crackdown on the Church in Poland during communist rule, the treatment clearly qualified as state repression, as described by scholars like Anthony Gill and J. Charlene Floyd. Pope Pius XI famously wrote in a 1926 encyclical that Catholic priests were put in the same category as “criminals and the insane” in Mexico after the reforms that prohibited actions such as preaching politics from the pulpit. 5 war that many clergy wanted to avoid and that is still playing out today. The Church was seen by many Mexican radicals, especially in the period before and after the Mexican revolution, as a reactionary force that would limit progress (Gill, 1998). In an effort to participate in the spirit of democracy following the overthrow of former dictator President Porfirio Díaz, Catholic elites formed their own party, reinforcing the tie between religion and politics. In 1926, popular anger and frustration at the anti-Catholic policies simmered over during the Cristero War when the government under President Plutarco Elías Calles decided to enforce Article 3, try to eliminate the power of the Church, and further suppress common religious celebration. The rebellion, which was composed of mainly rural, poor peasants and was one of the largest manifestations of the tense and hostile relationship between Church and State, was resolved and ended in 1929. The uprising left a shortage of priests, but a faithful following, who fashioned a homespun religion, practiced in private, and forewent social commitment due to the lack of priests to foster community. The state-controlled oppression of the Catholic Church and Catholic practices continued when the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) was formed to manage the country after the Revolution in 1929. The PRI, the dominant party for the majority of the 20th century, incorporated national secularism as a principle that would guide Mexican uncommon democracy for many decades. In 1991, after years of turmoil and efforts by priests and churches to influence Mexican politics, the Federal Government officially gave legal recognition to religious institutions and ended the traditional government antagonism towards the Church. Relations with the Vatican were also restored. The 1991 reconciliation under President Carlos Salinas de Gortari restored the clergy’s right to vote and criticize the government, legalized the presence of foreign priests and ministers, and allowed the open presence of convents and monasteries. Above all, the 6 new laws finally embraced the powerful Catholic faith of the Mexican population, a population that was about 96% Catholic. To this day, the Church remains an economic heavyweight with major corporate interests and an international banking establishment and extensive institutional sway. Mexico’s strong Catholic faith did not make it immune to the popular upsurge of grassroots Protestantism, called the “Southern Reformation”, that swept through Latin America at the end of the 20th century.