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Mitteilungen Heft 99 Franzius-Institut für Wasserbau und Küsteningenieurwesen Mitteilungen Heft 99 - ISSN 0340-0077 South Java Tsunami Model Using High Herausgeber Leibniz Universität Hannover Franzius-Institut für Wasserbau und Küsteningenieurwesen Nienburger Str. 4, 30167 Hannover Prof. Dr.-Ing. habil. T. Schlurmann www.fi.uni-hannover.de W. Kongko ly • Resolved Data And Probable Tsunamigenic Sources 99 South Java Tsunami Model Using Highly Resolved Data And Probable Tsunamigenic Sources Widjo Kongko Mitteilung des Franzius-Instituts für Wasserbau und Küsteningenieurwesen, Heft 99 South Java Tsunami Model Using Highly Resolved Data And Probable Tsunamigenic Sources Dr.-Ing. Widjo Kongko Dissertation, genehmigt von der Fakultät für Bauingenieurwesen und Geodäsie der Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover, 2011 iii Impressum Leibniz Universität Hannover Franzius-Institut für Wasserbau und Küsteningenieurwesen Nienburger Str. 4, D–30167 Hannover Tel.: +49 511 762-2573 Fax.: +49 511 762-4002 Mail: sekretariat@fi.uni-hannover.de URL: http://www.fi.uni-hannover.de ISSN: 0340-0077 Eigenverlag des Franzius-Instituts, 2012 Nachdruck und Vervielfältigung des Heftes – auch auszugsweise – bedarf der Genehmigung durch den Herausgeber und ist nur mit Quellenangabe gestattet. iv Content Widjo Kongko South Java Tsunami Model Using Highly x Resolved Data And Probable Tsunamigenic Sources v Editorial Preface As we’ve seen in our most recent past, mankind is becoming ever more susceptible to natural disasters, largely as a consequence of population growth and globaliz- ation, but also due to yet unidentified intrinsic geophysical processes often enfor- cing substantial natural extreme events that may then trigger a natural disaster. A sequence of devastating earthquakes and a large number of weather-related ex- tremes caused severe losses of lives and had detrimental effects on livelihoods as well as it made 2011 the costliest year ever (US$ 380bn) in terms of natural catastrophe losses as the global reinsurer MunichRe recently reported. Disastrous outcomes of extreme events can only increase unless better ways are found to mit- igate the tentative effects of natural hazards through advancement of knowledge, improved forecasting and warning, together with more community preparedness and resilience. Undeniably tsunamis are one of the most devastating geophysical hazards set- ting count-less coastal stretches worldwide at risk. This argument has not just been proven by the disastrous consequences of the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and succeeding tsunami of December 2004 which caused massive loss of life and property damage. Yet, our most recent experiences from Japan are still vividly present in our minds and pinpoint even stronger to advance knowledge on tsuna- mis and cascading effects by research and by taking action on preparation and countermeasures. In regard of these aspects the present PhD thesis by Dr. Widjo Kongko denotes a substantial contribution to help filling this scientific gap by focusing on the 17 July, 2006 earthquake with a magnitude MW 7.7 that occurred near the trench of the Sunda subduction zone in an approximate distance of 100 miles south of Java Island, resulting in a large tsunami along the southern coast of Java killing more than 600 people with hundreds missing and more than 100,000 displaced as re- ported by official organizations. As Dr. Kongko clearly points out, the 2006 Java earthquake was characterized by a smooth rupture, indicating a compound fric- tional environment likely influenced by weak material properties related to sedi- vii ment subduction or the presence of fluids that was almost not felt onshore. The rupture triggered a so-defined a tsunami earthquake as an abnormal, but known event that excites an unusually large tsunami in terms of its body and surface- wave magnitudes and exhibits a notable discrepancy between MS and MW. It is Dr. Kongko’s main objective to carry out a thorough validation of a nu- merical simulation for the 2006 Java tsunami that agrees well with the huge set of observed and self-collected run-up data by considering various tsunami sources and using high-resolution geometric data. The uniqueness of the present thesis is established on the numerical simulation of the 2006 Java tsunami by taking the combination of higher slip and lower rigidity at shallow depth into account. By these means the present study significantly contributes to the lack of the know- ledge and analyzes the complex rupture effects of near-field tsunamis in terms of higher slip and slip concentration affecting the tsunami amplitudes and its distri- bution along the South Java Island coastline. Additionally, by means of a novel hypothetic model for future tsunami hazard in the study area of Cilacap, Dr. Kongko unveils the effectiveness of greenbelts (mangroves) and sand dunes as locally proposed technical coastal defense struc- tures in order to allegedly mitigate the detrimental effects of tsunami inundation onshore. This chapter effectively helps demystifying the legend that distinct soft coastal vegetation defense systems significantly reduce tsunami impacts in coastal areas and helps mitigating losses. Dr. Kongko also addresses further aspects to be investigated in ongoing research at-tempts, i.e. local topography and bathymetry refinements, additional ground investigation to distinguish various types of land covers and uses as well as numerical modeling in extreme run-up areas using a 3D numerical code. It is also recommended for any future research program to take into consideration a tsunamigenic combination of both a seismic and landslide source for the Java 2006 tsunami model. Nonetheless, besides the essential advancement of knowledge on the Java 2006 tsunami, it is finally evaluated by the author that based on the modeling res- ults and most reasonable insights about tentative future tsunami hazards on the South Java coastline, the proposed tsunami countermeasures (technological com- ponents) are all in all insufficient, and that thus prolonged disaster preparedness programs encompassing vertical and horizontal evacuation (shelters, training and drills) are - despite all other efforts - highly demanded to finally foster community preparedness and progress community resilience. viii Hoping that you enjoy studying this thesis and obtain profitable new insights on tsunami earthquakes in order to advance scientific knowledge, stimulate new research approaches and constantly progress the exchange in between research institutions. Hanover, January 2012 Prof. Dr. Torsten Schlurmann (Franzius-Institute, Managing Director & Chair) ix SOUTH JAVA TSUNAMI MODEL USING HIGHLY RESOLVED DATA AND PROBABLE TSUNAMIGENIC SOURCES Von der Fakultät für Bauingenieurwesen und Geodäsie der Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover zur Erlangung des Grades eines DOKTOR-INGENIEURS Dr.-Ing. genehmigte Dissertation von M.Eng. Widjo Kongko geboren am 21.07.1967 in Banyumas-Indonesien Hannover, Oktober 2011 x SOUTH JAVA TSUNAMI MODEL USING HIGHLY RESOLVED DATA AND PROBABLE TSUNAMIGENIC SOURCES by WIDJO KONGKO M.Eng. Iwate University – Japan, 2004 A DISSERTATION submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree DR.-ING. Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geodetic Science GOTTFRIED WILHELM LEIBNIZ UNIVERSITY OF HANNOVER Hannover, Germany Submitted : 25th October, 2011 Oral examination : 20th December 2011 PhD Committees: Prof. Dr. –Ing. Habil. Torsten Schlurmann (Advisor & Supervisor) Associate Prof. Hermann M. Fritz (co-Supervisor) Prof. Dr.rer.nat. Insa Neuweiler (Commissioner) Prof. Dr. –Ing. Uwe Haberlandt (Chair) xi Abstract The huge Sumatra-Andaman earthquake tsunami (MW > 9.2) on 26 December, 2004 and the Nias earthquake tsunami (MW = 8.5) on 28 March, 2005, which occurred off Sumatra Island were followed by another earthquake off Java Island (MW = 7.8), which generated a tsunami in the Indian Ocean on 17 July, 2006. The epicenter of this earthquake was located near the trench of the Sunda subduction zone south of Java Island. Unlike the two previous tsunamis off Sumatera Island, this earthquake generated a sizable tsunami whose run-up were larger than expected based on the given seismic waves emanating from the slow-weak earthquake, and was classed as a tsunami earthquake. Following this series of tragic events, which caused huge losses of life and enormous damage to infrastructure, initiatives and efforts were made by government and non- government institutions as well as scientists from a wide range of disciplines to gain a greater understanding of the earthquake-generating mechanisms along the Java Trench and increase the ability and knowledge required to identify hazards, impacts, and countermeasures. The absence of accurate near-shore bathymetry and topography data poses a challenge for the tsunami model for the 17 July, 2006 Java is. Furthermore, the performances of the available models following such events, displayed inconsistencies when compared to the field observation data. In addition, the detailed analysis of tsunami models in terms of the variety of source models and their parameters affecting the tsunami run-up heights and their distribution along the coastline as well as model validations were limited. In the present study, the tsunami of 17 July, 2006 is studied using a broad range of tsunami sources, highly resolved bathymetry and topography data, and extensive post- tsunami field observations for model validation. The numerical modeling of the tsunami was carried out using TUNAMI code, which is based
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