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Integrated Model for Earthquake Risk Assessment Using Neural Network and Analytic Hierarchy Process: Aceh Province, Indonesia

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Integrated Model for Earthquake Risk Assessment Using Neural Network and Analytic Hierarchy Process: Aceh Province, Indonesia Accepted Manuscript Integrated model for earthquake risk assessment using neural network and analytic hierarchy process: Aceh Province, Indonesia Ratiranjan Jena, Biswajeet Pradhan, Ghassan Beydoun, Nizamuddin, Ardiansyah, Hizir Sofyan, Muzailin Affan PII: S1674-9871(19)30132-X DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2019.07.006 Reference: GSF 870 To appear in: Geoscience Frontiers Received Date: 3 April 2019 Revised Date: 21 May 2019 Accepted Date: 11 July 2019 Please cite this article as: Jena, R., Pradhan, B., Beydoun, G., Nizamuddin, Ardiansyah, Sofyan, H., Affan, M., Integrated model for earthquake risk assessment using neural network and analytic hierarchy process: Aceh Province, Indonesia, Geoscience Frontiers, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2019.07.006. This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT MANUSCRIPT ACCEPTED ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT 1 Integrated model for earthquake risk assessment using neural 2 network and analytic hierarchy process: Aceh Province, 3 Indonesia 4 5 Ratiranjan Jenaa, Biswajeet Pradhana,b,*, Ghassan Beydouna, Nizamuddinc, Ardiansyahc, 6 Hizir Sofyand, Muzailin Affanc 7 a Centre for Advanced Modelling and Geospatial Information Systems (CAMGIS), School of Information, 8 Systems and Modelling, University of Technology Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia 9 b Department of Energy and Mineral Resources Engineering, Choongmu-gwan, Sejong University, 209 10 Neungdong-ro, Gwangjin-gu, Seoul 05006, South Korea 11 c Department of Informatics, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia 12 d Department of Statistics, Syiah Kuala University, Banda Aceh, Indonesia 13 14 * Correspondence: [email protected] or [email protected] 15 16 Abstract: Catastrophic natural hazards, such as earthquake, pose serious threats to 17 properties and human lives in urban areas. Therefore, earthquake risk assessment (ERA) is 18 indispensable in disaster management. ERA is an integration of the extent of probability and 19 vulnerability of assets. This study develops an integrated model by using the artificial neural 20 network–analytic hierarchy process (ANN–AHP) model for constructing the ERA map. 21 The aim of the study is to quantify urban populationMANUSCRIPT risk that may be caused by impending 22 earthquakes. The model is applied to the city of Banda Aceh in Indonesia, a seismically 23 active zone of Aceh province frequently affected by devastating earthquakes. ANN is used 24 for probability mapping, whereas AHP is used to assess urban vulnerability after the hazard 25 map is created with the aid of earthquake intensity variation thematic layering. The risk map 26 is subsequently created by combining the probability, hazard, and vulnerability maps. Then, 27 the risk levels of various zones are obtained. The validation process reveals that the 28 proposed model can map the earthquake probability based on historical events with an 29 accuracy of 84%.ACCEPTED Furthermore, results show that the central and southeastern regions of the 30 city have moderate to very high risk classifications, whereas the other parts of the city fall 31 under low to very low earthquake risk classifications. The findings of this research are 32 useful for government agencies and decision makers, particularly in estimating risk 33 dimensions in urban areas andA forCCEPTED the future MANUSCRIPTstudies to project the preparedness strategies 34 for Banda Aceh. 35 Keywords: Earthquake; Hazard; Vulnerability; Risk; GIS; ANN–AHP 36 37 1. Introduction 38 The destructive power of earthquakes is very strong, has a wide-range effect, and endangers 39 the safety of human lives and properties (Xu and Dai, 2010). Indonesia is one of the highly 40 seismically active countries in the world with severe damage rates (Sørensen and Atakan, 41 2008). The country has experienced a number of destructive earthquakes in the last two 42 decades. Indonesia consists of several thousands of small islands situated along the 43 continental oceanic plate boundary of the Eurasian plate and Indo–Australian plate in the 44 central part of the Alpine–Himalayan seismic belt (Granger et al., 1999; Petersen et al., 45 2001). Trends on plate tectonics reveal the MANUSCRIPTIndian plate to be part of the large 46 Indo–Australian plate underlying Bengal Bay and Indian Ocean. The plate motion is towards 47 the northeastern direction with an average speed of six centimeters annually (Sørensen and 48 Atakan, 2008). The plate subducts beneath the Burma plate as a microplate of the large 49 Eurasian plate at the region of Sunda trench (Sørensen and Atakan, 2008). This subduction 50 process creates thrust faults and volcanic activities, the two major reasons of earthquakes in 51 Indonesia (Bellier et al., 1997). 52 Indonesia has experienced a large number of earthquakes based on historical records and 53 information fromACCEPTED the earthquake database of the United States Geological Survey (USGS). 54 The meeting of the tectonic plates produces a reverse fault system governed by regional 55 geology and active volcanos. According to worldwide earthquake databases, 150 or more 56 earthquakes were experienced from 1900 to 2017. Total fatalities exceeded 266,270 in the 57 last 400 years in different regionsACCEPTED of Indonesia. MANUSCRIPT Some high deformation rates have triggered 58 many large earthquake events (≥ 8.0), such as the 1861 Nias event, 2004 event in the Indian 59 Ocean, and the Simeulue event in 2005 (ISMNPD, 2004). The Sumatra–Andaman 60 megathrust earthquake in 2004 is the second largest magnitude earthquake recorded to date 61 (Bilham and Ambrasey, 2005). The earthquake created a rupture of 1300 km (length) 62 characterized by seven separate segments from the northwest to the Andaman Islands at more 63 than 1600 km (Bilham and Ambrasey, 2005). The earthquake duration is the longest event 64 period recorded at approximately 600 s. Youngs et al. (1997) and Lin and Lee (2008) 65 explained that the intertectonic subduction of the plate was associated with the event and 66 bedrock movement. In Indonesia, the recorded human toll in Aceh province and North 67 Sumatra due to the 2004 earthquake was approximately 110,229 deaths, 12,123 missing, and 68 703,518 displaced (Siemon et al., 2005). The details of fatalities and injuries are presented in 69 Table 1. Infrastructure damage due to the dominant disastrous earthquakes may be due to the 70 use of poor construction materials. Damage to buildings was caused by the earthquake 71 magnitudes (i.e., ≥ 8.0) that used to frequently occurMANUSCRIPT in Aceh province, thus continuously 72 affecting the city of Banda Aceh (ISMNPD, 2004; Irwansyah, 2010). The total damage 73 estimated for the buildings accounted for 35% of total buildings (ISMNPD, 2004; Siemon et 74 al., 2005). 75 Banda Aceh is the capital city of Aceh province that is exposed potentially to a significant 76 earthquake vulnerability and risk along the major fault of Great Sumatran Fault (GSF). GSF 77 is a right-lateral strike-slip fault that has not experienced any large earthquake in the northern 78 part of the fault ACCEPTEDparticularly in Banda Aceh from the last 200 years (Irwansyah, 2010). This 79 tranquil part of the fault is considerably recognized as a seismic gap in Aceh province 80 (Irwansyah, 2010). An accumulation of increased stress along the GSF may be observed due 81 to the collision between plates. Petersen et al. (2001) mentioned the capability of GSF for 82 producing up to M=7.9 event, as the history explained the capability of M=7.7 that has 83 occurred along this fault. ThisACCEPTED earthquake occurredMANUSCRIPT in 1892 near the city of Sibolga 84 (approximately ±570 km at the southeast of Banda Aceh) (Petersen et al., 2001; Siemon et 85 al., 2005). Furthermore, Banda Aceh is situated on thick sedimentary alluvium deposits 86 (Siemon et al., 2005). However, the site amplification probability is extremely high in the 87 thick alluvium (Brebbia et al., 1996; Setiawan, 2017; Setiawan et al., 2018). Therefore, 88 estimate the seismic site amplification of Banda Aceh is required by recognizing the 89 probability of future earthquakes because the city is surrounded by several earthquake events 90 (Lin and Lee, 2008). The city has experienced ground shaking due to some major 91 earthquakes in the recent years. Moreover, understanding Banda Aceh’s vulnerability and 92 risk due to earthquakes is essential and significant for urban planning (Zhang and Jia, 2010). 93 The probability, hazard, and social vulnerability analysis can be applied in future risk 94 mapping and decision management by considering the risk reduction, prevention, and 95 mitigation (Davidson and Freudenburg, 1996; Davidson, 1997; Davidson and Shah, 1997; 96 Turner et al., 2003; Wisner et al., 2003; Adger et al, 2004; Rygel et al., 2006; Birkmann, 97 2007; Setiawan et al., 2018). In the current analysis,MANUSCRIPT the hazards and vulnerability resulting in 98 high ability and stand on socially operated attributes and contexts, for a large population, are 99 unsheltered. Research scholars and scientists have divergent definitions for the notion of 100 vulnerability and
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