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Update on the Colored Diamond Market at Auction

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Update on the Colored Diamond Market at Auction Update on the Colored Diamond Market at Auction Presented by: Alexander Eblen, GG Senior Specialist / Jewelry Sotheby’s New York ➢ A Word on Today’s Global Auction Market ➢ Current Canaries ➢ Pricing at the Pinnacle: Pinks and Blues ➢ Assorted Esoterics: The rise of the Small and Unusual Current Trends, Challenges and Questions ➢ Buying activity for colored diamonds in Fancy Intense to Fancy Vivid colors and high clarity relative to their specific color continues to be an extremely international affair with Asia particularly well represented. ➢ Demand and realized prices are especially strong for those scarce few stones from long-held collections, particularly for those “old make” examples in old mine, old European, unmodified cushion and emerald cut given the strong allure of improvability to the trade coupled with the buying public’s increased awareness of the rarity of these stones. The tendency for exaggerated prices realized for such stones is quite striking. Current Trends, Challenges and Questions ➢ As with other jewelry categories, and the greater luxury market in general, robust bidding activity for colored diamonds in the current market is most likely to be found in the “Mid” to “Upper-Mid” level. In this case this means price points between $10,000 and $500,000 see the greatest depth of bidding and are most likely to perform at or above expectations. Meanwhile, “Important” purchases at $1,000,000 and above continue to require truly exceptional property representing strong value opportunities. Current Trends, Challenges and Questions ➢ While our global clientele is quite aware of the growing presence of synthetic diamonds, their opinion on the rarity, desirability and value of natural colored diamonds has largely been unaffected. With that said, Sotheby’s has been aggressively pursuing the acquisition and implementation of the latest technologies so that our clients can rest assured they know what they are purchasing. Current Canaries ➢ Extraordinary examples and excellent recut potentials (i.e. fancy intense potentially improving to vivid) are driving the market but estimates probing the top are meeting with resistance showing the cautious appetite. ➢ Anything fancy yellow or lighter in modern makes and less than 10 carats has required significant reductions in initial asking prices to have hope of selling. Stones with issues previously found more acceptable (fluorescence, degree of inclusions, etc.) are much more difficult. Realized prices for this sector, when sales occur, are typically within expectations without many surprises. Canaries: Notable Examples from Recent Auctions Sale: Sotheby’s Hong Kong Sale: Sotheby’s Hong Kong April 2018 / Lot 1659 October 2018 / Lot 1694 Stone: 30.16ct Emerald Cut Vivid / VS1 Stone: 5.58 & 5.55ct Emerald Vivid / IF Estimate: $2,420,000 – 3,190,000 Estimate: $1,000,000-1,500,000 Realized: $2,843,791 (with BP) Realized: Failed to sell PPC: $94,290/ct PPC: $84,000/ct (low estimate) Canaries: Notable Examples from Recent Auctions Sale: Sotheby’s New York December 2018 / Lot 33 Stone: 10.41ct Old Mine Cut Fancy Intense / VS1 Schlumberger for Tiffany & Co. Estimate: $150,000-250,000 Realized: $663,000 (with BP) PPC: $63,688/ct Canaries: Modern vs Old Makes VS Sale: Sotheby’s Geneva Sale: Sotheby’s New York June 2015 / Lot 350 December 2018 / Lot 197 Stone: 3.09ct Fancy Vivid / SI1 Stone: 3.64ct Vivid Yellow / SI1 Estimate: CHF 50,000-70,000 Estimate: $30,000-50,000 Realized: CHF 62,500 (with BP) Realized: $112,500 (with BP) PPC: CHF 20,226/ct PPC: $30,906/ct Canaries: Modern vs Old Makes VS Sale: Sotheby’s New York Sale: Sotheby’s New York June 2019 / Lot 61 June 2019 / Lot 30 Stone: 4.01ct Oval Fancy Intense / VS2 Stone: 4.24ct Fancy Intense / SI1 Estimate: $45,000-65,000 Estimate: $50,000-70,000 Realized: Failed to sell Realized: $62.500 (with BP) PPC: $14,563/ct (at low estimate) PPC: $14,740/ct Pinnacle Pricing: Blues and Pinks Pinnacle Pricing: Blues Pinnacle Pricing: Blues ➢ The now mature market shows clear evidence of peaking between 2015 and mid to late 2018, with prices regularly reaching $2 million/carat on numerous occasions for top examples. ➢ Given the radical upscaling of value in the blue diamond market in recent years, we predict top prices will continue to be achievable going forward, albeit by an extremely select group of exceptional stones. The field has definitely narrowed at the top. Pinnacle Pricing: Blues ➢ Pricing at the top is more challenging in the current market, with several superb gems offered at starting estimates of $2 million/carat going unsold, seemingly finding a new upper threshold that only the most unusual and excellent stones can hope to meet or exceed. ➢ As with many other stone types, we are currently observing greater risk appetite for smaller, “wearable” stone sizes (approximately 2 to 6 carats) given their lower barrier to entry and broader buyer market. This sometimes leads to somewhat exaggerated prices realized that may not be achievable in larger, rarer examples if priced similarly. Pinnacle Pricing: Blues / Peak Pricing 2015 to Present VS Sale: Sotheby’s Geneva Sale: Sotheby’s New York November 2015 / Lot 513 December 2018 / Lot 98 Stone: 12.03ct Cushion Vivid / IF / “Blue Moon” Stone: 4.24ct Pear Vivid / VVS1 Estimate: $34,083,378-$53,516,883 Estimate: $20,000,000-30,000,000 Realized: $48,468,158 (with BP) Realized: Failed to sell PPC: $4,028,940/ct (World Record) PPC: $1,883,239/ct (at low estimate) Pinnacle Pricing: Blues / Notable Examples from Recent Sales Sale: Sotheby’s New York April 2018 / Lot 138 Stone: “Farnese Blue”, Circa 1714-15 6.16ct Fancy Dark Grey-Blue, SI1 clarity (clarity due to damage) Estimate: CHF 3,500,000-5,000,000 ➢ What is provenance worth? Pinnacle Pricing: Blues / Notable Examples from Recent Sales Sale: Sotheby’s New York / April 2018 / Lot 138 Sale: Geneva / May 2017/ Lot 221 Stone: 6.16ct Fancy Dark Grey-Blue, Stone: 4.05ct Fancy Deep Blue, SI1 clarity (clarity due to damage) VS1 clarity Estimate: CHF 3,500,000-5,000,000 Estimate: CHF 4,200,000 – 5,200,000 Realized: CHF 6,719,750 (with BP) Realized: CHF 4,239,500 (with BP) PPC: $1,089,908/ct PPC: $1,046,790/ct Pinnacle Pricing: Blues / Recut Case Study Sale: Sotheby’s New York April 2018 / Lot 138 Stone: 3.47ct Fancy Intense Blue, I1 clarity (clarity due to damage) Estimate: $2,000,000-2,500,000 Pricing at the Pinnacle: Blues / Recut Case Study Note the extensive chip to the girdle/crown/pavilion of the stone significantly altering outline Pricing at the Pinnacle: Blues / Recut Case Study Sale: Sotheby’s New York April 2018 / Lot 138 Stone: 3.47ct Fancy Intense Blue, I1 clarity (clarity due to damage) Estimate: $2,000,000-2,500,000 Realized: $6,663,300 (with BP) PPC: $1,920,259/ct *Record price per carat for a fancy intense blue of this size. Pinnacle Pricing: Pinks Pinnacle Pricing: Pinks ➢ It is unclear what direct impact the closing of Argyle in 2020 will have on pink-red diamond pricing. Undoubtedly, some of this impact has already been priced into the current market but marketing opportunities and client education may allow for appreciation. ➢ Interestingly, non-Argyle pinks of Type IIa designation of notable size accompanied by exceptional saturation and clarity dominate the list of record-setting pinks. This illustrates how the Brazilian, Russian and African sources which are still active may continue to provide top- level stones, albeit minus the extraordinary fancy reds Argyle yielded occasionally. Pinnacle Pricing: Pinks ➢ Similar to the blue diamond pricing trend, pinks seem to have hit their peak pricing in 2015-2017 period, culminating in two stones achieving over $2 million/carat as well as the CTF Pink Star setting the all-time world record price for any jewel. ➢ The current market climate is ruled by an incredibly discerning clientele who will still pay exaggerated prices for the rarest stones of high color purity, strong saturation and rare clarities while simultaneously attenuating overall values for the majority of pinks with color modifiers and lower clarities. Pinnacle Pricing: Pinks / Notable Examples Sale: Sotheby’s Hong Kong April 2017 / Lot 1 Stone: CTF Pink Star 59.60ct Fancy Vivid Pink / IF Type IIa Realized: $71,175,926 (with BP) All-time World Record for any jewel PPC: $1,194,227/ct Pinnacle Pricing: Pinks / Type IIa Price Dominance Sale: Sotheby’s Geneva Sale: Hong Kong May 2016 / Lot 495 November 2017 / Lot 2077A Stone: 15.38ct Pear Vivid / VVS2 Stone: 14.93ct Oval Vivid / VVS1 Type IIa Type IIa Estimate: CHF 26,900,000-36,500,000 Estimate: HKD 220,000,000-320,000,000 Realized: CHF 30,826,000 (with BP) Realized: HKD 249,850,000 (with BP) PPC: $2,052,093/ct PPC: $2,139,372/ct Pinnacle Pricing: Pinks / Notable Examples from Recent Sales Sale: Sotheby’s New York April 2018 / Lot 107 Stone: 7.01ct Fancy Intense Pink / SI2 Estimate: $4,200,000-5,200,000 Realized: Failed to sell PPC: $599,144/ct Pinnacle Pricing: Pinks / Notable Examples from Recent Sales Sale: Sotheby’s Geneva May 2018 / Lot 374 Stone: 2.63ct Fancy Vivid Purplish Pink / SI1 Estimate: CHF 1,920,000 – 2,880,000 Realized: CHF 2,415,000 (with BP) PPC: $917,442/ct Assorted Esoterics: The rise of the Small and Unusual Assorted Esoterics ➢ An exciting trend emerged in 2018-2019 with the arrival of a small but meaningful group of naturally irradiated colored diamonds in green, blue-green and green-blue hues. ➢ While these colors were previously known, they were certainly underrepresented at auction with a dearth of sale records to support or even suggest a pricing structure for the relatively small carat sizes.
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