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The State of Fashion 2021

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The State of Fashion 2021 3 The State of Fashion 2021 CONTENTS Executive Summary 8—9 ECONOMY Industry Outlook 10—13 GLOBAL GLOBAL ECONOMY 16—33 01: Living with the Virus 17 Jumia: Balancing Speed with Discipline in a Crisis 20 02: Diminished Demand 23 Covid-19 and the New Era of Luxury 29 CONSUMER CONSUMER SHIFTS CONSUMER SHIFTS 34—57 03: Digital Sprint 35 Kering: Fast-Tracking a Digital Upgrade 38 Alibaba: Innovating for China’s Advanced Ecosystem 41 04: Seeking Justice 45 Louis Vuitton: Hardwiring Accountability in a State of Flux 48 05: Travel Interrupted 52 FASHION Selfridges Group: Managing the Pivot to Local Shopping 55 SYSTEM FASHION SYSTEM 58—99 06: Less is More 59 A More Circular Fashion Industry Will Require a Collective Effort 63 07: Opportunistic Investment 67 08: Deeper Partnerships 70 BEAUTY BEAUTY Shahi Exports: Reforming the Fashion Supply Chain 74 2021 Risk, Resilience and Rebalancing in the Apparel Value Chain 77 09: Retail ROI 81 H&M Group: Making Retail More Resilient 85 Mapping the Retail Portfolio of the Future 89 10: Work Revolution 96 THE STATE OF BEAUTY 2021 100—107 MGFI MCKINSEY GLOBAL FASHION INDEX 108—115 Glossary 116 End Notes and Infographics 118 7 CONTRIBUTORS IMRAN AMED ACHIM BERG ANITA BALCHANDANI SASKIA HEDRICH As founder, editor-in-chief Based in Frankfurt, Achim Anita Balchandani is a As global senior expert in and chief executive of The Berg leads McKinsey’s Global Partner in McKinsey’s London McKinsey’s Apparel, Fashion Business of Fashion, Imran Apparel, Fashion & Luxury office, and leads the Apparel, & Luxury group, Saskia Amed is one of the fashion group and is active in all Fashion & Luxury group in Hedrich works with fashion industry’s leading writers, relevant sectors including EMEA. Her expertise extends companies around the thinkers and commentators. clothing, textiles, footwear, across fashion, health and world on strategy, sourcing Fascinated by the industry’s athletic wear, beauty, beauty, specialty retail and optimisation, merchandis- potent blend of creativity and accessories and retailers e-commerce. She focuses ing transformation, and business, he began BoF as a spanning from the value end on supporting clients in sustainability topics — all blog in 2007, which has since to luxury. As a global fashion developing their strategic topics she is also publishing grown into the pre-eminent industry and retail expert, responses to the disruptions about regularly. Additionally, global fashion industry he supports clients on a broad shaping the retail industry she is involved in developing resource serving a five- range of strategic and top and in delivering customer strategies for national million-strong community management topics, as well as and brand-led growth garment industries across from over 200 countries and on operations and sourcing- transformations. Africa, Asia and Latin territories. Previously, he was related issues. America. The State of Fashion 2021 a consultant at McKinsey in London. FELIX RÖLKENS ROBB YOUNG JAKOB EKELØF JENSEN ALTHEA PENG Felix Rölkens is part of the As global markets editor of Jakob Ekeløf Jensen is a Althea Peng is a Partner in leadership of McKinsey’s The Business of Fashion, consultant in McKinsey’s McKinsey’s San Francisco Apparel, Fashion & Luxury Robb Young oversees content London office, specialising office, and leads the Apparel, group and works with from Asia-Pacific, the Middle in Apparel, Fashion & Luxury. Fashion & Luxury group for apparel, sportswear and pure East, Latin America, Africa, He works with fashion and the Americas. In this dynamic play fashion e-commerce the CIS and Eastern Europe. luxury companies as well industry, she partners with companies in Europe and He is an expert on emerging as investors in the industry global apparel and retail North America, on a wide and frontier markets, whose across Europe, on topics such companies to drive large- range of topics including career as a fashion editor, as e-commerce, strategy, scale transformations for strategy, operating model business journalist, author value creation, operating profitability and to build new and merchandising and strategic consultant model and M&A. capabilities for growth. transformations. has seen him lead industry projects around the world. 8 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to thank all members of The Business of Fashion and the McKinsey community for their contribution to the research and participation in the BoF-McKinsey State of Fashion Survey, and the many industry experts who generously shared their perspectives during interviews. In particular, we would like to thank: Adam Freede, Albert Chan, Alexander Pavlov, Anant Ahuja, Anne Line Hansen, Anne Pitcher, Charlotte Elstob, Dickson Szeto, Doug Stephens, Elsa Berry, Grégory Boutté, Helena Helmersson, Josh Gardner, Juan Carlos Escribano, Juliet Anammah, Michael Burke, Mike Hu, Nelli Kim, Philip Guarino, Rania Masri, Robert Burke, Sharifa Murdock and Thiago Alonso de Oliveira. The wider BoF team has also played an instrumental role in creating this report — in particular Amanda Dargan, Anna Rawling, Anouk Vlahovic, Casey Hall, Chelsea Carpenter, Hannah Crump, Kate Vartan, Lauren Sherman, Niamh Coombes, Nick Blunden, Rachel Deeley, Sarah Brown, Sarah Kent, Tamison O’Connor, Venetia van Hoorn Alkema, Victoria Berezhna, Vikram Alexei Kansara and Zoe Suen. The authors would in particular like to thank Sonja Penttilä and Sarah André from McKinsey’s Helsinki and London offices respectively for their critical roles in delivering this report. We also acknowledge the following McKinsey colleagues for their special contributions to the report creation and in-depth articles: Adhiraj Chand, Aimee Kim, Alex Sukharevsky, Andres Avila, Anita Liao, Antonio Gonzalo, Cherry Chen, Claire Gu, Clarisse Magnin, Colin Henry, Colleen Baum, Daniel Zipser, Danielle Bozarth, Ellie Baker, Emanuele Pedrotti, Emily Gerstell, Ekaterina Abramicheva, Ewa Sikora, Fernanda Hoefel, Franck Laizet, Gillian Wright, Hanna Grabenhofer, Hannah Yankelevich, Jihye Lee, John Hooks, Julia Dageförde, Karl-Hendrik Magnus, Karthikeyan Swaminathan, Libbi Lee, Lisa Renaud, Marie Strawczynski, Mekala Krishnan, Miriam Lobis, Nakul Verma, Neha Onteeru, Nicola Montenegri, Patricio Ibanez, Peter Stumpner, Raphael Buck, Rebeca Vega, Rebecca Zhang, Ryan Shultz, Sajal Kohli, Sakina Mehenni, Sophie Marchessou, Susan Lund, Thomas Tochtermann, Tom Skiles, Ulric Jerome, Valerie Van der Voort, Vorah Shin. We’d also like to thank David Wigan and Jonathan Turton for their editorial support, and Adriana Clemens for external relations and communications. In addition, the authors would like to thank Joanna Zawadzka and Lucinda Scholey for their creative input and direction into this State of Fashion report, Martin Nicolausson for the cover illustration and Getty Images for supplying imagery to bring the findings to life. 9 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In Search of Promise in Perilous Times For the fashion industry, 2020 was the year geographies and a relatively rapid transition to in which everything changed. As the coronavirus economic recovery. In this scenario, the industry The State of Fashion 2021 pandemic sent shockwaves around the world, the would return to 2019 levels of activity by the third industry suffered its worst year on record with quarter of 2022. almost three quarters of listed companies losing Our second, “Later Recovery” scenario money. Consumer behaviour shifted, supply chains would see sales growth decline by 10 to 15 percent were disrupted and the year approached its end over the coming year compared with 2019. In this with many regions in the grip of a second wave of case, the virus would continue to wreak havoc infections. A turbulent and worrying year has left despite widespread containment measures and us all looking for silver linings — both in life and in fashion sales would only revert to 2019 levels in the business — knowing full well that we will need to fourth quarter of 2023. make the most of them in the year ahead. In either scenario, we expect tough trading Indeed, according to McKinsey Global conditions to persist next year, in some geographies Fashion Index analysis, fashion companies will post at least, and for high levels of bankruptcies, store approximately a 90 percent decline in economic closures and job cuts to continue. At the same time, profit in 2020, after a 4 percent rise in 2019. Given the pandemic will accelerate trends that were the ongoing uncertainty, our predictions for in motion prior to the crisis, as shopping shifts industry performance next year are focused on to digital and consumers continue to champion two scenarios. fairness and social justice. The first, more optimistic “Earlier Given the extreme jeopardy facing the Recovery” scenario envisages that global fashion industry, there is no simple, standardised playbook sales will decline by between 0 and 5 percent in for the coming year. Instead, fashion companies 2021 compared to 2019. This would be predicated must tailor their strategies to fit their individual on successful virus containment in multiple priorities, market exposure and capabilities. 10 In other words, deploy your “silver linings In a disrupted environment, decision-makers must strategy” that takes advantage of bright spots in the be bold. They must develop novel strategies for their proverbial storm. The key principles for managing assortments or product offering, focused on profit- change will be flexibility and agility, alongside ability, value, simplicity and downsized collections, operational
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