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Syria Daily Intelligence Report – 18 August 2017

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Syria Daily Intelligence Report – 18 August 2017 Syria Daily Intelligence Report – 18 August 2017 During an interview with Reuters on Thursday, the spokesperson for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Talal Silo, told reporters that the United States has a “strategic interest” to remain in Syria “for decades to come.” Silo added that there will be military, economic and political agreements in the long term between the Federation of Northern Syria and the administration in Washington. His statements were echoed by Colonel Ryan Dillon on the US-led International Coalition who said that “still a lot of fighting to do, even after ISIS has been defeated in Raqqa.” The Islamic State (IS) has lost nearly all its holdings in Raqqa Province and is rapidly losing ground in Hama and Homs. However, it still maintains significant holdings in Deir ez-Zour. Prior attempts by the US-led Coalition to gain a greater foothold in the province either through the SDF or vetted Free Syrian Army (FSA) units have had little success so far. Should the US choose to stay in Syria in the “decades” to come, it may increase the likelihood of conflict with the Syrian Government forces. When asked about such a prospect, the US Special Envoy to the International Coalition, Brett McGurk told reporters that US President Donald Trump had specifically authorised “direct action” against the government forces if they crossed into SDF held areas north of the Euphrates River. McGurk made these statements at a meeting with the Raqqa Civic Council in Ain Issa. His words were echoed by the Deputy Commander of the International Coalition, Robert Jones, who told reporters on Thursday that the Coalition “will not allow the Syrian regime forces to bypass the Euphrates River this region is a no-fly zone.” Indeed, it would appear that Damascus is already looking for options to limit the Coalition. On Thursday, Russian media reported on Thursday that Syria's permanent representative to the United Nations, Bashar Jaafari, sent the United Nations Security Council a letter requesting the dissolution of the Coalition on grounds of rising civilian casualties due to airstrikes in Raqqa. “The Syrian Arab Republic once again calls on the States members of the coalition to distance themselves from the crimes that the coalition has committed in their name, and promptly to dissolve the coalition,” Jaafari said and cited, in particular, an airstrike on 1st August, which reportedly killed 60 civilians in Deir ez-Zour. Jaafari further stated that the Coalition was not sanctioned by the UNSC and is opposed by the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Compared to the Coalition, Damascus also appears to hold a far more optimistic timeline with regards to the end of the Syrian conflict. Bouthaina Shaaban, the Political and Media Adviser to President Assad, told her audience at the Damascus International Fair on Thursday that the six-year war is “nearing its end” due to foreign states cutting their backing to the rebels and vowed that the Syrian Government would confront any “illegitimate forces, whether Turkish or American.” Shaaban cited the continuation of the fair itself as “a message that the war has ended...and we are at the start of the path towards reconstruction.” Shaaban is not alone in her assessment. Since the capture of Aleppo City by the government forces, numerous observers and analysts have predicted that the six-year war is reaching its final stages. For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] or +44 (0)20 3515 0057 Perhaps a sign of growing expectations that the war is reaching a conclusion, the UN announced on Thursday that it hopes for “direct negotiations” to take place between the Syrian Government and the Syrian Opposition in October or November. The announcement was made by the UN Special Envoy to Syria, Staffan de Mistura, who added that he is expecting for a meeting to take place in Riyadh in October where the different factions of the Syrian Opposition can “to take stock of the realities on the ground,” and present a more unified and conciliatory position in the subsequent meetings Syrian Government. Two Lebanese ministers have held talks with Syrian officials at the side-lines of the Damascus International Fair on Thursday despite vocal opposition from a number of Lebanese political parties and figures including the Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri. Minister of Agriculture Ghazi Zaiter and Industry Minister Hussein Hajj Hassan defended their decision to visit Damascus on grounds that it was an opportunity for Lebanese corporations and producers to discuss economic issues between the two countries and bolster ties after six years of war. Zaiter added that he intended to discuss with the Syrian Prime Minister Imad Khamis “the means to implement the agreements signed between the two countries in terms of agriculture and industry,” with particular reference to a power deal between the two countries. On Thursday evening, 17 FSA factions based in Quneitra Province announced that they will be merging into a single group under the name Division 63. Brigadier General Yahya al-Abadi, newly appointed commander of Division 63, said in a statement that Division 63 was formed after a long discussion with leaders of several factions in the area of Quneitra, adding that the division include a large amount of dissident officers including high ranking military officers. Abadi also said that one of the most important reasons of this merger is “to stand firmly against the humiliation of the revolution” and to overthrow the Syrian Government and added that, security and safety will also be increased in areas held by Division 63 through better cooperation. Although not stated by Abadi, the reduction of political and financial support to the FSA by Jordan and the US has also likely played a role in the decision to merge the FSA groups in the province. Some of the factions that have taken part in the merger are: Ousud al-Rahman, Fajr al-Sham, the Abu Dujana brigade, Jaafar al- Tayaar, Ahrar al-Yarmouk, al-Hazm, al-Rahman brigade, Shuhadaa al-Janoub, Liwa al-Shaheed Abdulraheem, Special operation brigade and the Artillery division. Over 30 officers, most from Quneitra, have taken part in the merger. Amidst these developments, clashes across Syria continued. In Raqqa City, the SDF progress has virtually stopped since the most recent gains made in the Old City earlier this week, with intense airstrikes targeting IS positions across the city centre. The Coalition has announced that this week alone, it has conducted some 200 airstrikes in Raqqa alone. The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) have shelled the Afrin city centre on Thursday night, marking the first attack on Afrin since the most recent round of tensions between the Turkish-backed FSA and the People’s Protection Units (YPG) began. The TSK shelling took place shortly after a suspected YPG shelling killed a Turkish soldier in the Karayılan District of Turkey’s Hatay Province. No casualties For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] or +44 (0)20 3515 0057 were reported in Afrin, although a number of buildings and vehicles were reportedly damaged. As has become customary on Fridays, rebel-held parts of Aleppo and Idlib have witnessed protests against the Syrian Government and the rebel group Hayy’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). In the town of Atarib, the Free Syrian Police reportedly apprehended a suicide bomber as he prepared to join the protests and detonate himself. The exact affiliation of the bomber remains undetermined. The HTS, meanwhile, continues to consolidate its power in the areas it controls while further preying on other local factions. A number of activists reported on Friday that the group arrested Bassam Saed al-Hamoud, a TOW operator for the formerly-US-backed Free Idlib Army. There were reports that the group “interrogated” Hamoud, although no information was provided on what exactly the interrogators sought to find out. Notably, the HTS had reportedly acquired a number of TOW Missile Launchers from Harakat Nour al-Din al-Zinki when the two groups briefly clashed last week. Reports of Hamoud’s arrest came shortly after reports emerged that the HTS executed Osama al-Khudr, a commander of the FSA-affiliated 101st Division. Khudr was arrested about a year ago and held in HTS custody since. No statements were issued as to why he was executed. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and the National Defence Forces (NDF) continue to make gains against the IS in the eastern Homs and Hama countrysides. On Friday morning, the NDF announced that it has taken control of the Talat Gharbiyah and Talat Sharqiyah areas of the now-besieged IS pocket covering the westernmost holdings of the militant group in the Homs and Hama provinces. The NDF also reported that it is pushing towards the town of Uqayribat at the centre of the pocket. In conjunction with these operations, the Russian Airforce has conducted numerous attacks on the IS positions around the town. Pro-government sources estimate that securing the Hama pocket from the IS will free up between 3,000 and 5,000 SAA and NDF personnel, many of whom were charged with protecting the Salamiyah-Ithriyah Highway, as well as the surrounding, government-held countryside. Further east, the SAA continued to push across the IS-held territories north of Sukhnah in a bid to connect eastern Homs with southern Raqqa. On Friday morning, the government forces announced the capture of the Tweinan Gas Field, the Tweinan Refinery nearby, the Akram Gas Field, the Ghadeer Gas Field, al-Oug Valley and the village of Gharb al-Hussein in northeast Homs countryside. Gains were also made in the immediate eastern vicinity of Sukhnah where the government forces took control of the Najib Gas Station, depriving the IS of a staging ground that allowed them to shell Sukhnah.
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