About US Global Investors
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U.S. Global Investors Searching for Opportunities, Managing Risk History is Key to Future Success: Lessons Learned from Investment Cycles Jeffrey Hirsch, President of the Hirsch Organization Editor-in-Chief Stock Trader’s Almanac Editor Commodity Trader’s Almanac Frank Holmes, CEO and Chief Investment Officer U.S. Global Investors www.usfunds.com January 2012 1.800.US.FUNDS 11-772 Today’s Presenters Jeffrey Hirsch Frank Holmes www.usfunds.com January 2012 11-772 2 About U.S. Global Investors Publicly traded company, traded on NASDAQ (GROW) Headquartered in San Antonio, TX Boutique investment management firm specializing in commodity-related equity strategies Offers mutual funds focused in gold, precious metals and minerals, global resources, emerging markets and global infrastructure Manages $2.45 billion in average AUM as of September 30, 2011 www.usfunds.com January 2012 11-772 3 Focus on Education 28 MFEA STAR Awards for Excellence in Education www.usfunds.com January 2012 11-772 4 “Performance and Results Oriented” Investment leadership results in performance Winner of 29 Lipper performance awards, certificates and top rankings since 2000 (Four out of 13 U.S. Global Investors Funds received Lipper performance awards from 2005 to 2008, six out of 13 received certificates from 2000 to 2007, and two out of 13 received top rankings from 2009 to 2010.) www.usfunds.com January 2012 11-772 5 U.S. Global Investors Investment Process We use a matrix of “top-down” macro models and “bottom-up” micro stock selection models to determine weighting in countries, sectors and individual securities. We believe government policies are a precursor to change. We monitor and track the fiscal and monetary policies of the world’s largest countries both in terms of economic stature and population. We focus on historical and socioeconomic cycles, applying both statistical and fundamental models, including “growth at a reasonable price” (GARP), to identify companies with superior growth and value metrics. www.usfunds.com January 2012 11-772 6 Government Policy Model — Precursor for Change Ben Bernanke, Chairman President Barack Obama of the Federal Reserve www.usfunds.com January 2012 11-772 7 U.S. Global Investors Investment Process We overlay these explicit knowledge models with the tacit knowledge obtained by domestic and global travel for first-hand observation of local and geopolitical conditions, as well as specific companies and projects. We use a matrix of statistical models to monitor market volatility and money flows, and as a result, we may at times maintain higher than normal cash levels. www.usfunds.com January 2012 11-772 8 Cycles – Principles of Continuous Revolution Every cycle — irrespective of degree or significance — contains its own unique rhythm From daily tides to the solar system, life is governed by the cyclical principle www.usfunds.com January 2012 11-772 9 45-Years of Research Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related 10 companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com Almanac Investing Philosophy “Those who study market history are bound to profit from it!” Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related 11 companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com 3 Keys Of Cycles • Market Cycles Are Undeniable • Not Exact - Basic Framework Of Moves • Use In Conjunction With Other Analysis Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related 12 companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com Almanac Investing Process • Cycles, Seasonality & Recurring Patterns • Current Trends • Technical Analysis • Fundamentals • Market Internals • Economy • Sentiment • Monetary and Government Policy Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related 13 companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com Major Investment Cycles • War & Peace and the Markets • Decennial Pattern • 4-Year Presidential Election/Stock Market Cycle • Best Six Months November-April • January Barometer Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related 14 companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com Patterns In Play Now • 4-Year Presidential Election Stock Market Cycle • Best 3 Months/Best 6 Months – October Seasonal Buy S&P, DJIA, NAS, R2K • January Effect Missing - Small Caps Not Beating • Santa Claus Rally, First 5 Days • January Barometer, December Low Indicator • Long Copper, Oil and Gas: Winter-Summer • Early-Mid January S&P Short – Setting Up Nicely Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related 15 companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com Next Super Boom Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related 16 companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com Next 15 Years DJIA 40000 Dow Jones Industrials 2009-2025 35000 DJI Up 500% 30000 2009-2025 25000 20000 Actual DJIA 2009-2011 US Withdraws Inflation 15000 from Afghanistan Levels Off 10000 Sideways Market Launching Pad While Inflation Rises Super Boom Begins 2017-2018 5000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related 17 companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com 4-Year Election Cycle DJIA Average Annual % Gain • 179-Year Saga (1833-2011)* • Gov’t Manipulates 12% Economy 10% • Prime Pump 3rd Year 10.4% • Most gains in 8% 2nd half of term 6% 5.8% • Post & Midterm Bear 4% Markets 4.2% 2% • Dirty Work Early 2.0% 0% Post- Mid-Term Pre-Election Election Election * Based on annual close; Prior to 1886 based on Cowles and other indices; 12 Mixed Stocks, 10 Rails, 2 Industrials 1886-1889; 20 Mixed Stocks, 18 Rails, 2 Industrials 1890-1896; Railroad average 1897 (First industrial average published May 26, 1896) Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related 18 companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com No DJIA 3rd Year Loss • Since War-Torn 1939 DJIA Average Annual % Gain (1941-2011) Still No Loss For DJIA 18% • No Midterm Bottom 1986 15% & 2006 - Usually Bottom 16.0% Pickers Paradise 12% • 2009 Post-Election Bottom 9% • Election Years Weaker 6% • Pre-Election Stronger 5.9% 4.5% 4.7% • Financial Crisis Impact 3% 0% Post- Mid-Term Pre-Election Election Election Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related 19 companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com Incumbent Party Wins & Losses 16 Dow Jones Industrials During Election Years Since 1901 12 All Election Years Since 1901 8 Party In Power Wins Party In Power Ousted 4 0 –4 –8 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related 20 companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com 2 Losses Last 7 Months Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related 21 companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com Sitting President Up For Reelection Election Year DJIA % Change Since 1900 Year Sitting President DJIA % 1900 McKinley (R) 7.0 Won 1904 T. Roosevelt (R) 41.7 Won T. Roosevelt took office after McKinley death 1912 Taft (R) 7.6 Lost 1916 Wilson (D) – 4.2 Won 1924 Coolidge (R) 26.2 Won Coolidge took office after Harding death 1932 Hoover (R) – 23.1 Lost 1936 F. Roosevelt (D) 24.8 Won 1940 F. Roosevelt (D) – 12.7 Won 1944 F. Roosevelt (D) 12.1 Won 1948 Truman (D) – 2.1 Won Truman took office after FDR death 1956 Eisenhower (R) 2.3 Won 1964 Johnson (D) 14.6 Won Johnson took office after Kennedy death 1972 Nixon (R) 14.6 Won 1976 Ford (R) 17.9 Lost Ford took office after Nixon Resigned 1980 Carter (D) 14.9 Lost 1984 Reagan (R) – 3.7 Won 1992 G. H. W. Bush (R) 4.2 Lost 1996 Clinton (D) 26.0 Won 2004 G. W. Bush (R) 3.1 Won Average % Gain 9.0 % # Up / # Down 14 / 5 Wins 10.7 % Losses 4.3 % Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related 22 companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com 2011 Near Textbook Year • 2011 Forecast • April/May Top – Right On Target! • 5 Monthly Losses • DJIA +2.7% January May-Sep – After 3 Nasty Losses • October Kills • April +4% Another Bear • Best 6 Months +15.2% Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related 23 companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com 2012 Annual Forecast • Reserved Outlook Next 6-8 Years • DJIA Reclaims Waterfall -12,700 Early 2012 • Limited Upside From There • Geopolitical and Macro Economic Risks – Europe Debt, Iran, U.S. Deficits, etc. • Seasonal Patterns Track Closely Again In 2012 • First Half Top DJIA 13,000-13,500 - Summer Weakness • Weak Market Early Reduces Obama’s Chance, But Increase Odds of Stronger Yearend Rally • Average Election Year Gains of 5-10% Copyright © 2000-2012 by Jeffrey A. Hirsch and John Wiley & Sons, Inc. or related 24 companies. All rights reserved. www.stocktradersalmanac.com Waterfall Declines Waterfall Declines Since 1950 Waterfall Decline Bear MarketLength DJIA Return to Waterfall Start DJIA End DJIA Months % Change Date Months 25-Jul-57 516.69 22-Oct-57 419.79 3.0 – 18.8% 11-Aug-58 9.8 Slightly longer rebound 24-Aug-60 641.56 25-Oct-60 566.05 2.1 – 11.8% 27-Jan-61 3.1 23-Apr-62 694.61 26-Jun-62 535.76 2.1 – 22.9% 18-Feb-63 7.9 8-Jul-66 894.04 7-Oct-66 744.32 3.0 – 16.7% 27-Apr-67 6.7 9-Apr-70 792.50 26-May-70