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Economic Overview Andrey Golubev Research Analyst Online Research: Russian & Global Capital Markets http://www.crediteurope.ru/en/research/ Treasury, Credit Europe Bank T: +7 (495) 725 40 40 (ext. 7239) To get a direct subscription, F: +7 (495) 725 40 13 Snapshot of Send an inquiry e-mail to: MAIL: [email protected] Global Capital Markets [email protected] BBG: [email protected] g 10.11.2007 [17:21 MSK] Gggg gg CURRENCIES MAJOR EQUITY INDICES Name Last 1D, % 1W, % 1Y, % Name Last 1D, % 1W, % 1Y, % MAJORS MAJORS EUR/USD 1.4679 0.01 3.77 14.31 DOW JONES INDUS. AVG 13042.74 1.69 7.45 7.72 GBP/USD 2.0903 0.81 2.34 9.40 S&P 500 INDEX 1453.70 1.43 6.92 5.27 USD/JPY 110.69 1.75 5.92 6.26 NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX 2627.94 2.52 6.34 9.97 USD/CHF 1.1226 0.49 5.40 10.63 S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX 13869.82 1.83 2.98 12.39 CARRY MEXICO BOLSA INDEX 29158.86 0.45 10.21 21.74 AUD/JPY 0.9115 1.67 1.49 18.86 BRAZIL BOVESPA STOCK IDX 64320.56 1.19 2.99 57.96 NZD/JPY 0.7641 1.53 0.10 14.73 DJ EURO STOXX 50 = Pr 4297.83 1.51 3.98 5.76 USD/CAD 0.9448 1.05 3.92 19.85 FTSE 100 INDEX 6304.90 1.21 6.33 1.55 RUBLE CAC 40 INDEX 5524.18 1.91 5.47 1.41 USD/RUB 24.4580 0.01 2.04 8.88 DAX INDEX 7812.40 0.09 2.85 22.88 EUR/RUB 35.9002 0.01 1.69 4.99 IBEX 35 INDEX 15731.20 1.35 3.08 12.35 EMERGING MARKETS S&P/MIB INDEX 37845.00 1.82 7.93 6.51 USD/TRY 1.2022 1.75 1.22 20.53 AMSTERDAM EXCH INDX 510.65 2.39 8.67 3.59 USD/MXN 10.8905 0.75 0.60 0.04 OMX STOCKHOLM 30 INDEX 1115.09 2.65 11.52 1.43 USD/BRL 1.7454 0.17 3.05 23.27 SWISS MARKET INDEX 8417.15 2.19 8.48 3.65 USD/ARS 3.1275 0.12 0.88 1.82 NIKKEI 225 15583.42 1.19 10.08 3.28 USD/NYR 3.3290 0.17 1.47 9.28 HANG SENG INDEX 28783.41 0.08 0.19 52.37 USD/VEB 2147.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 6545.70 0.37 3.01 20.40 gggggg RUSSIAN EQUITY BOND BENCHMARKS Name Last 1D, % 1W, % 1Y, % Name Maturity YTM Last 1D, % EQUITY MAJORS USA RTS Index 2262.11 1.14 4.58 32.54 UST 10 11/15/2017 4.22% 100.22 0.52 RTS Future Dec7 2267.00 1.57 5.13 UST 5 10/31/2012 3.75% 100.53 0.26 RTS-2 Index 2423.09 0.46 6.08 50.58 UST 3 5/15/2010 3.37% 102.67 0.09 MICEX Index 1891.27 1.36 3.06 25.80 UST 2 10/31/2009 3.42% 100.38 0.09 EQUITY SUB TURKEY MICEX Oil & Gas Index 2614.55 2.14 2.56 3.23 Turkey 9 6/15/2009 4.68% 111.54 0.06 MICEX Power Index 3362.79 0.59 0.85 Turkey 12 1/23/2012 5.60% 121.55 0.09 MICEX Telecom Index 2676.69 1.63 5.49 Turkey 30 1/15/2030 6.75% 158.19 0.04 MICEX Metal & Mining Index 3871.23 2.05 6.65 RUSSIAN Global Russia 30 3/31/2030 5.63% 113.09 0.18 Russia 10 3/31/2010 6.31% 104.15 0.02 RUSSIAN OFZs OFZ-25058 4/30/2008 5.90% 100.20 0.01 OFZ-25060 4/29/2009 5.96% 99.90 0.01 OFZ-25057 1/20/2010 6.03% 102.97 0.07 OFZ-25059 1/19/2011 6.14% 100.19 0.01 OFZ-46020 2/6/2036 6.79% 102.65 0.12 gggggg RUSSIAN MONEY MARKET COMMODITIES Name Last 1D, % 1W, % 1Y, % Name Last 1D, % 1W, % 1Y, % MosPrime OIL MOSPrime O/N rate 6.79 7.11 21.25 24.13 WTI 96.32 0.90 20.01 57.49 MOSPrime 1 Week 7.11 1.11 8.22 44.51 BRENT 93.37 0.27 20.03 57.88 MOSPrime 2 Week 7.17 1.10 3.17 46.93 URALS 90.83 0.45 21.74 61.33 MosPrime 1 Month Rate 7.1 0.42 1.66 26.79 OIL INDICES MosPrime 2 Month Rate 7.27 0.00 1.49 28.90 AMEX OIL INDEX 1463.39 1.72 1.13 24.99 MosPrime 3 Months Rate 7.23 0.00 2.30 27.51 OIL SERVICE SECTOR INDEX 289.84 1.85 6.12 46.84 MosPrime 6 Month Rate 7.14 0.00 0.70 22.89 Mosibor METALS Moscow IBOR RUB O/N 6.67 7.75 23.98 27.05 GOLD $/OZ 832.00 0.19 12.75 31.35 Moscow IBOR RUB 1W 7.09 1.53 9.24 21.40 PLATINUM SPOT $/OZ 1433.00 1.92 4.71 18.92 Moscow IBOR RUB 2W 7.14 2.06 3.78 22.05 LME NICKEL 3MO ($) 33850.00 3.36 10.26 11.70 Moscow IBOR RUB 1M 7.09 1.39 2.34 23.30 LME ALUMINUM 3MO ($) 2610.00 0.76 7.72 7.77 Moscow IBOR RUB 2M 7.3 0.00 2.41 27.85 LME COPPER 3MO ($) 7030.00 2.36 12.78 4.03 Moscow IBOR RUB 3M 7.26 0.82 2.42 23.89 LME TIN 3MO ($) 16950.00 1.04 6.94 69.50 ggg gg CEB GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX, 12/01/2007=1000 USD vs. MARKET CEB Composite OIL Index, 12/01/2007=1000 EUR/USD 1,400 RTS Index, 12/01/2007=1000 27.0 2.0 2.0 2,000 1.50 USD/RUB 1,350 1,900 26.5 1.5 1.5 1.45 1,300 1,800 26.0 1.0 1.0 1,250 1,700 1.40 25.5 0.5 0.5 1,200 1,600 0.0 0.0 1,150 25.0 1,500 1.35 1,100 0.5 0.5 1,400 24.5 1.30 1,050 1,300 1.0 1.0 24.0 1,000 1,200 1.5 1.5 1.25 23.5 950 1,100 2.0 2.0 900 23.0 EUR GBP JPY CHF AUD NZD CAD RUB TRY MX BRL ARS MY VEB 1,000 1.20 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug -07 Sep-07 Oct-07 Jan-07 Feb-07Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07 Jun-07 Jul-07 Aug-07 Sep-07 Oct-07 gg Пп Ggg www.crediteurope.ru/en/research/ Credit Europe Bank. All rights reserved. See Terms of Use/Disclaimer on the last _1_ page. Dynamics C/A RUCBDB Index MosPrime o/n MosPrime 1w MOIBID o/n MOIBOR o/n Total C/A+Deposits 700 108 9 7.6 9 9 650 650 640 640 600 107 8 7.4 8 8 500 106 630 630 7 400 105 7.2 7 7 620 620 6 610 610 300 104 7.0 6 6 5 200 103 600 600 6.8 5 5 100 102 4 590 590 0 101 3 6.6 4 4 580 580 12345 12345 12345 12345 USD/RUB EUR/RUB USD/EUR BASKET Libor USD 1W Libor EUR 1W 24.7 24.7 36.0 36.0 29.63 29.63 4.66 4.11 35.9 35.9 24.6 24.6 29.62 29.62 4.64 35.8 35.8 24.5 24.5 4.10 35.7 35.7 29.61 29.61 4.62 24.4 24.4 35.6 35.6 24.3 24.3 35.5 35.5 29.60 29.60 4.60 4.09 12345 12345 12345 12345 EUR/USD EuroNext100 GBP/USD FTSE100 USD/CHF USD/JPY N i kkey225 1.50 1030 2.12 6500 1.16 1.16 116 16400 1.49 2.11 1020 1.15 1.15 115 2.10 6450 16200 1.48 114 1010 2.09 1.47 6400 1.14 1.14 16000 2.08 113 1.46 1000 2.07 6350 1.13 1.13 112 15800 1.45 990 2.06 111 1.44 6300 1.12 1.12 15600 980 2.05 110 1.43 2.04 6250 1.11 1.11 15400 1.42 970 2.03 109 1.41 960 2.02 6200 1.10 1.10 108 15200 12345 1 2345 12345 12345 DXY USD vs. EM local cur, % AUD/JPY NZD/JPY GBP/CHF 76.6 0.3 107 107 90 90 2.41 2.41 106 106 2.40 2.40 76.4 0.2 89 89 105 105 2.39 2.39 76.2 0.1 88 88 104 104 2.38 2.38 76.0 87 87 0.0 2.37 2.37 75.8 103 103 0.1 86 86 2.36 2.36 75.6 102 102 85 85 2.35 2.35 0.2 101 101 75.4 2.34 2.34 0.3 100 100 84 84 75.2 2.33 2.33 83 83 75.0 0.4 99 99 2.32 2.32 74.8 0.5 98 98 82 82 2.31 2.31 12345 12 345 12345 12345 USD/TRY ISE National 100 Index, Istanbul SE Turkey 9 Turkey 30 Brazil 10 g lobal 58,000 58,000 1.22 1.22 111.66 158.7 102.0 IBOV - Brasil Bovespa Stock IDX 65000 57,000 57,000 111.64 158.6 101.8 64500 111.62 158.5 1.20 1.20 101.6 56,000 56,000 111.60 158.4 64000 101.4 55,000 55,000 111.58 158.3 1.18 1.18 101.2 63500 111.56 158.2 54,000 54,000 101.0 111.54 158.1 63000 1.16 1.16 100.8 53,000 53,000 111.52 158.0 62500 111.50 157.9 100.6 1.14 1.14 52,000 52,000 111.48 157.8 100.4 62000 12345 12345 12 345 12345 RTS RTS-2 WTI Urals CEB US EQUITY, % CEB EU, % Micex O&G Sub-Index Urals 97 92 4.0 4.0 2,295 2430 CEB EM, % CEB RU, % 2,680 92 2,290 97 91 2420 3.0 3.0 2,670 91 91 2,285 96 2,660 90 2.0 2.0 2,280 2410 2,650 96 90 90 2,275 2400 95 89 1.0 1.0 2,640 2,270 2,630 95 89 0.0 0.0 89 2,265 2390 94 88 2,620 88 2,260 2380 88 1.0 1.0 2,610 2,255 94 87 2.0 2.0 2,600 2370 93 87 2,250 87 2,590 2,245 2360 93 86 3.0 3.0 2,580 86 12345 12345 12345 12345 UST 10 Russia 30 Dow Jones S&P500 RCBI Index GOLD CEB METALS COMPOSITE INDEX 100.40 113.15 100.0 100.0 13,800 1540 840 6950 13,700 113.10 1520 100.20 13,600 6900 113.05 99.9 99.9 830 13,500 1500 100.00 113.00 6850 13,400 1480 99.80 112.95 820 6800 13,300 99.8 99.8 13,200 1460 99.60 112.90 810 6750 13,100 112.85 13,000 1440 99.40 99.7 99.7 6700 112.80 12,900 800 1420 99.20 6650 12,800 112.75 12,700 1400 99.00 112.70 99.6 99.6 790 6600 12 345 12345 12345 12345 Gggg www.crediteurope.ru/en/research/ Credit Europe Bank.
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