Breakouts Are Global
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Market Analysis Comment Technical Analysis Market Analysis | United States 04 May 2009 Breakouts are global Mary Ann Bartels +1 212 449 8038 Technical Research Analyst MLPF&S Equity market recovery is global [email protected] The breadth of rally from the March lows has improved as more indexes across Stephen Suttmeier, CFA, CMT +1 212 449 8813 the globe participate in the market recovery (side bar). Many of these indexes Technical Research Analyst MLPF&S show short to intermediate-term bases. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, [email protected] Brazil, China, Korea, India, and Malaysia have breakouts from these bases and represent leadership for this rally. Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Mexico, Russia, and Singapore are positioning for upside breakouts from these bases. While Global market recovery broad-based Europe is showing signs of bottoming, the major equity averages in this region are Our weekly global advance-decline line, lagging many of those in the rest of the world. which is based on 38 country indexes, has What about the US? broken out. This improvement in global breadth points to a more broad-based The US has seen a strong recovery confirmed by market breadth, accumulation recovery for the global equity markets. (rather than just short covering), and strong intermediate-term momentum readings. The NASDAQ is leading with a breakout from a short to intermediate- Global advance-decline line – Jan 07 to present term base, while the S&P 500 and DJIA remain below their early January highs. Year-to-date, the NASDAQ is up 9.0% while the S&P 500 and DJIA are down 2.9% and 6.4%, respectively. Importantly, the stocks versus bonds ratio broke to the upside now favoring stocks (see page 4). The sectors showing leadership are technology, materials, and consumer discretionary – these sectors also show the strongest bases off the November and March lows. Levels to watch – potential to higher resistance levels We maintain that within the rally from the March low, pullbacks or consolidations are likely to remain modest. While the S&P 500 continues to challenge the 880 area as resistance, the index has buy signals on both the daily and weekly point Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Oct-07 and figure charts. These signals project into higher levels of resistance. The daily Oct-08 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 signal counts to 935 and the weekly to 1000, which coincides with our 915-965 Source: Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch Market Analysis, Bloomberg resistance as well as the lower end of the post-October low range highs in the 1000-1050 area. We maintain that a 50% retracement of the downtrend from May 08 to Mar 09 is highly possible and targets 1050-1055. Key support is now 845- 825, which is above our 715-780 support area. Support and resistance levels Support Levels 1st Support 2nd Support Up April = positive bias for May S&P 500 845-825 815-780 The S&P 500 was up 9.4% in April, which was the fourth best showing for April. DJIA 7900-7750 7435-7260 NASDAQ Comp 1600-1560 1483-1400 Only April 1933 (33.9%), 1939 (15.1%), and 1935 (9.8%) showed higher returns Resistance Levels 1st Resistance 2nd Resistance for the month. Since 1928, a positive April for the S&P 500 has preceded an S&P 500 840-880 915-965 average gain of 0.53% for May (vs. an average loss of -0.02%). This also exceeds DJIA 8300-8405 9000-9300 NASDAQ Comp 1750-1775 1905-1948 the average loss of -0.88% in May that follows a negative April. In summary, an Source: Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch Market Analysis up April has a tendency to neutralize a negative seasonal bias in May. This implies that the market rally can continue. This report is an extract of a report of the same name published on 04 May 2009. Merrill Lynch does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 28 to 29. Analyst Certification on Page 27. 10834687 Market Analysis Comment 04 May 2009 Contents Market VIM & VIGOR strengthen 3 Daily NYSE A/D Line breaking out 3 S&P 500 point & figure buy signals 4 Stocks vs. bonds ratio favors stocks 4 Rally not driven by short covering 5 Oil Services strong vs AMEX Oil Index 6 Global indexes with breakouts 7 Global indexes in double bottoms 9 Global indexes building bases 10 Europe base-building, but lagging 11 Net Tab at +1 (from +2) 12 Net Tab Bands remains at -2 13 MZM money supply growth slows 14 Sector OBOS relative price model 15 S&P 500 OBOS industry model 17 Top S&P 500 stocks by market cap 18 S&P 500 OBOS top & bottom “tails” 19 Most Attractive Buy (MAB) List 22 Oscillator Methodology 24 Footnotes 25 2 Market Analysis Comment 04 May 2009 Market VIM & VIGOR strengthen So far, more buyers than sellers points Accumulation solidly above distribution to a strong rally. VIGOR closes above 16 Jan 09 high, a positive sign Bank of America Securities-Merrill Lynch Volume Intensity Model (VIM) and VIGOR Our Volume Intensity Model (VIM) gauges whether a market or sector is seeing 100 VIM distribution line accumulation (buying) or distribution 90 (selling). With VIM accumulation above 80 the VIM distribution since March 18, this 70 indicator is confirming the US equity 60 market rally off early March lows. 50 40 VIM accumulation line VIGOR has risen since March 19 and is also 30 confirming the market rally. On Friday, VIGOR closed above the lower top from 3700 3200 Jan 16. We would like to see a sustained 2700 breakout above this lower top to indicate 2200 a more meaningful shift from distribution 1700 1200 VIGOR to accumulation for the stocks in the 700 NYSE. 200 Jul-08 Jul-07 Jan-09 Jan-08 Mar-09 Mar-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Sep-07 Nov-07 May-09 VIGOR is a cumulative line of the spread May-08 between VIM accumulation and VIM Source: Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch Market Analysis, FactSet distribution. It is an intermediate to longer-term indicator of accumulation relative to distribution. Daily NYSE A/D Line breaking out Now both the daily and weekly A/D lines have breakouts Improving market breadth is positive for the US equity market S&P 500 stocks advance-decline line – daily This is encouraging and suggests that the rally is becoming more broad-based, but we would still like to see breakouts on the stocks only advance decline lines for the NYSE and the S&P 500 (see chart on left). NYSE Cumulative Advance – Decline Line – daily chart, January 2007 to present No breakout yet for the S&P 500 advance- decline line. This is a measure of common stock breadth. Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 May-07 Sep-07 May-08 Sep-08 May-09 Source: Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch Market Analysis, FactSet Unlike the S&P 500 and DJIA, the daily NYSE A/D line has broken above the downtrend from last May and the early January high. Jul-08 Jul-07 Oct-08 Oct-07 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jan-07 Apr-07 Source: Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch Market Analysis, WSJ.com 3 Market Analysis Comment 04 May 2009 S&P 500 point & figure buy signals Daily & weekly buy signals count to 935-1000 Key supports at 845-825 S&P 500 Point & Figure chart – weekly Daily signal valid while 845 holds; weekly signal valid while above 825 traditional 3 box reversal chart Corresponding point and figure chart levels for the DJIA are supports at 7900- 7750 and bullish counts to 8650-8900. S&P 500 Point & Figure chart –daily traditional 3 box reversal chart Source: Stockcharts.com Stocks vs. bonds ratio favors stocks Stocks vs. Bonds – 2 year daily chart with MACD Strong positive divergences on daily momentum for the stocks vs. bonds ratio support the case for a breakout in favor of stocks. Weekly momentum (not shown) also shows strong positive divergences. Daily MACD shows a strong positive divergence. Source: Stockcharts.com Source: Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch Market Analysis, Bloomberg 4 Market Analysis Comment 04 May 2009 Both our short interest data and Volume Rally not driven by short covering Intensity Model indicate that the market Advance shows significant accumulation (buying) not just short covering rally from the early March lows has been The S&P 500 index has rallied 12.6% between March 15 and April 15; over the driven more by accumulation (buying) same period adjusted short interest (ASI) remained nearly unchanged. If we rather than short covering. break out ASI by sector, we see the sectors with the highest price returns over this period-Financials and Industrials-gaining 34% and 20%, respectively also saw a 12.1% and 1.6% increase in ASI. Though there has been covering in other sectors, it indicates to us the rally has been based on significant accumulation (buying) rather than just short covering. March 15- April 15 % change in ASI and % returns by sector 40 % Financials have risen even as ASI 30 % increased - suggesting rally not driven by covering. 20 % 10 % 0% -10% -20% Energy Utilities Materials Financials Industrials Health Care Health Information Techno logy Co nsumer Discretionary Services Co nsumer Staples Telecommunication Price returns ASI Source: Banc of America Securities-Merrill Lynch Market Analysis Elevated shorts = potential floor for financials Improvement in financials is part of a bigger basing process Financials are nearly 1/3 of total adjusted short interest in the S&P 500 S&P 500 Financials – 1 year daily chart Financials are still the locus of shorting activity as well as the rally.