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An Inventive Approach on Prediction of Gold Price in the Current Scenario

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An Inventive Approach on Prediction of Gold Price in the Current Scenario LUX MONTIS Vol. 7 No. 1 January 2019 AN INVENTIVE APPROACH ON PREDICTION OF GOLD PRICE IN THE CURRENT SCENARIO KAVERY B S RESEARCH SCHOLAR IN COMMERCE S N COLLEGE,KOLLAM ABSTRACT Gold is appreciated all over the world for its worth. Gold is an imperative part of a diversified investment portfolio. Indians have always invested in gold for weddings, gifts and as a hedge against inflation. Over decades people have been selecting the gold over other metals and semi-precious stones. After the implementation of GST, GST on gold rate will marginally increase. In 2019, the Price of 10 Grams of gold will be Rs.35,552.85 and in 2020 it would be Rs.37, 268.39. After the introduction of the GST, the consumers have to find out an additional amount of Rs.476.91, and the percentage of increase would be 5.75%. Keywords: Gold, Diversified Investment Portfolio, GST, Inflation, Customs Duty, Excise Duty, VAT Introduction Gold is appreciated all over the world for its worth. Throughout the centuries, people have sustained to hold gold for an assortment of raison d’êtres. India’s centuries-old gold industry is the world’s biggest market for the metal, with imports meeting almost all the country’s necessities for jewellery and investment. Imports are elevated not only because of an enormous demand but also because of the large population of about 1.2 billion people. India’s gold market is predicted to have more than 350000 jewellers, generally small, family-run businesses. The need for the study Gold should be an imperative part of a diversified investment portfolio because its price increases in rejoinder to actions that cause the value of paper investments, such as stocks and bonds, to turn down. Even though the price of gold can be unpredictable in the short term, it has 1 LUX MONTIS Vol. 7 No. 1 January 2019 always maintained its value over the long term. Indians have always invested in gold for weddings, gifts and as a hedge against inflation. The gold mania is not new in our country and every Indian family believes in investing in gold jewellery not only for their personal use but also as a hedge against inflation. But now there are more reasons to it than mere weddings and inflation. Over decades people have been selecting the gold over other metals and semi- precious stones. The reasons are varied. 1. Gold itself is accessible in numerous variation Designs on gold metal are easy to execute. Also, the metal doesn’t lead to any finger rash and is long lasting. You can select the gold in any format. 2. Gold is as good as platinum Some people want to sport platinum. But it could be that they don’t have the required budget to opt in for it. It is where gold walks in and can be an excellent substitute. It helps you to sport a platinum look at a half price. 3. Gold is durable when compared to other precious metals Based on the alloy mix gold offers better stability and durability similar to other precious metals. The chances of gold getting scratched or dinged are very less. So, people who are always on the move, this is a fantastic option. 4. Gold of any type is enduring Gold brings in cryptogram and nuance of unending worship, wholesomeness, and potency. All these characters make gold the perfect metal for customizing special occasions. 5. Gold is compliant to all people Some people want their gold ornaments classic, fashionable and ageless. And there’s another section of people who would fancy their gold to be glossy, chic and modern with minimal designs. Gold does righteousness to both and looks good in both the design forms. So, make sure that you choose from only the best brand that offers both excellent products and value for money. After the implementation of GST, GST on gold rate will marginally increase. Hence, the cost of gold and gold jewellery will be marginally higher in the GST era. GST on gold purchase On the 3 rd of June, 2017, the much awaited GST rates on gold and jewellery were announced. While the gold rate after GST was fixed at a flat 3%, uncut diamonds and precious stones were taxed at 0.25%. Similar to gold, the rate of 3% was fixed for silver as well as polished diamonds. 2 LUX MONTIS Vol. 7 No. 1 January 2019 GST on gold making In addition to this, the government has also levied a 5% GST on making charges. The tax on making charges was initially fixed at 18%, but appeals from Indian jewellery councils and bodies to reduce the rate resulted in the subsequent reduction. This is also a relief for end consumers, who would have had to bear the burden of a higher tax otherwise. Import Duty on Gold The one duty on gold, which has not been subsumed under GST is the Import Duty. Gold will continue to attract an import duty of 10%, as it continues being one of the key products being imported into a highly gold-loving nation. In this backdrop, it is felt to evaluate the price of the gold available in the market. Since the gold is a precious metal, its demand is high along with the price. Hence an attempt has been done to examine the growth in the price of the gold from 2008 onwards to the current period and also predict the price of the gold based on past prices. Objectives of the study 1. To predict the price of the 10 grams of gold in Indian Rupees based on past prices. 2. To examine the Price of the 10 grams of gold in Indian Rupees after the implementation of the GST. Hypotheses of the study 1. There is no linear trend of the price of the 10 grams of gold in Indian Rupees based on past prices. 2. The Price of the 10 grams of gold in Indian Rupees after the implementation of the GST has declined. The methodology of the Study The present study is analytical in nature. The secondary data is used to evaluate the research problems. Time series analysis was applied by the researcher to predict the price of the gold. The study period starts from 2008 to 2018. Result and Discussion Table 1.1 The average price for 10 grams of gold in Indian Rupees The average price for 10 grams of gold in Growth Period Indian Rupees Rate 2008 Rs. 12,500.00 1 3 LUX MONTIS Vol. 7 No. 1 January 2019 2009 Rs. 14,500.00 1.16 2010 Rs. 18,500.00 1.48 2011 Rs. 26,400.00 2.11 2012 Rs. 31,050.00 2.48 2013 Rs. 29,600.00 2.36 2014 Rs.28,006.50 2.24 2015 Rs.26,343.50 2.10 2016 Rs.28,623.50 2.28 2017 Rs.29,667.50 2.37 Source:2018 - https://www.policybazaar.com/gold-rateRs. 32665.00 2.61 In the year 2008, the average price for 10 grams of gold in Indian Rupees was Rs.12500. In 2009 the price was increased to Rs.14500 with a growth rate of 1.16. In the year 2010 and 2011, the price of the 10 grams of gold in Indian Rupees was Rs.18500 and Rs.26400 with a corresponding growth rate of 1.18 and 2.11 respectively. Further, the price increased to Rs.31050 in 2012 with a growth rate of 2.48. But unfortunately, during the year 2013, 2014 and 2015 the price of the gold has slashed down and it become Rs.29600, Rs.28006.50 and Rs.26343.50 respectively. During the period 2016 and 2017, a considerable augment is seen with the price of the gold and it reached Rs.28623.50 and Rs.29, 667.50. Finally, in the year 2018, the price of the 10 grams of gold in Indian Rupees was Rs.32665 with a growth rate of 2.61. Table 1.2 Regression analysis on Price of 10 Grams of gold Regression Analysis -Price 0.686 r² n 11 0.828 r k 1 4062.093 Price of 10 Grams of Std. Error Dep. Var. gold ANOVA table 4 LUX MONTIS Vol. 7 No. 1 January 2019 Std. Error Dep. Var. gold ANOVA table Source SS df MS F p-value 323,737,151.645 323,737,151.6455 1 5 19.62 .0016 Regression 148,505,394.9000 9 16,500,599.4333 Residual Result 472,242,546.5455 10 Total Significant Source: Secondary data The attempt of the present study was to examine the trend of Price of 10 Grams of gold. Accordingly, the Regression Analysis was performed. The correlation value is 0.828 and the R Square value is 0.686, relatively a higher accuracy. This implies the fact that with the support of Time (Period) it is possible to predict the Price of 10 Grams of gold to the extent of 68.60% true. Further Anova test was also done. The F value of the model is 19.62 and p-value is 0.0016, showed the significant fit of the model. This implies with the help of the Time (Period), it is possible to predict the Price of 10 Grams of gold. Hence the null hypothesis is rejected. Table 1.3 Time series analysis on Price of 10 Grams of gold Regression output variables coefficients std. error t (df=8) p-value Intercept -3,428,115.0636 t 1,715.5364 387.3054 4.429 .0016 Predicted values for: Price t Actual ( Price ) Predicted( Price ) Residual 2,008 12,500.00 16,681.95 -4,181.95 2,009 14,500.00 18,397.49 -3,897.49 2,010 18,500.00 20,113.03 -1,613.03 2,011 26,400.00 21,828.56 4,571.44 2,012 31,050.00 23,544.10 7,505.90 2,013 29,600.00 25,259.64 4,340.36 2,014 28,006.50 26,975.17 1,031.33 2,015 26,343.50 28,690.71 -2,347.21 2,016 28,623.50 30,406.25 -1,782.75 5 LUX MONTIS Vol.
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