Jeju Air (089590 KS ) Three Key Points to Watch
Jeju Air (089590 KS ) Three key points to watch Airlines 2Q19 preview: Lower load factor and yield to result in operating loss of W23.1bn Company Report For 2Q19, we forecast Jeju Air’s revenue to come in at W293.4bn (+3.6% YoY). In the July 10, 2019 international segment, we estimate traffic expanded 18.5% YoY on the back of increased capacity (+28.2% YoY). However, we believe revenue growth was tempered by a 9.1% YoY decline in yield. We believe traffic (-6.6% YoY) and yield (-3.3% YoY) were also sluggish in the domestic segment. (Maintain) Buy At the operating level, we expect a loss of W23.1bn, which is below the market consensus (breakeven). We believe the biggest drag on earnings was a fall in load Target Price (12M, W) ▼ 40,000 factor (81.9%; -6.7%p YoY) and a resulting decline in yield. We attribute the load factor decline to weakness in international flights out of regional airports (Daegu/Muan), Share Price (07/09/19, W) 29,000 where the airline expanded capacity. Earnings were likely further weighed down by co st pressures from higher oil prices and Expected Return 38% won depreciation. We estimate fuel costs increased 27% YoY and other costs (airport- related costs, maintenance, etc.) also rose nearly 10% YoY. As a result of the operating loss, we expect the carrier to swing to a n et loss of W20.1bn (vs. net profit of W16.8bn OP (19F, Wbn) 99 in 2Q18). Consensus OP (19F, Wbn) 132 Key points to watch: Market share, Japan, and M&A EPS Growth (19F, %) -5.6 1) Market share: Jeju Air’s market share in the short-haul international segment has Market EPS Growth (19F, %) -23.6 recently expanded to 10.8%, nearing the 10.9% record set in March 2019.
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