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Italian Morning Sight

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Italian Morning Sight Italian Morning Sight 07 September 2015 Equity Research +39 02 4344 - 4389 Institutional Sales - 5101 Relative Value - 4788 Equity Derivatives - 5451 Investment Research Stock Exchanges 4 Sep 15 Last %Chg %YtD Min YtD Max YtD Technical Analysis FTSE Italy All-Share 23,072 -2.97 14.57 19,270 25,684 DJ STOXX: Daily relative performance by sector FTSE MIB 21,473 -3.18 12.94 18,123 24,031 FTSE Italy Star 23,771 -1.06 27.39 18,482 26,520 Comit 1,200.4 -1.56 15.62 1,002.9 1,323.7 Stoxx 600 353.11 -2.52 3.09 331.62 414.06 EuroStoxx 50 3,180.2 -2.75 1.08 3,007.9 3,828.8 Dow Jones Industrials 16,102 -1.66 -9.65 15,666 18,312 Nasdaq Comp 4,684 -1.05 -1.10 4,506 5,219 Nikkei 225 17,792 -2.15 1.96 16,796 20,868 Other Market Indicators 4 Sep 15 Last %Chg %YtD Min YtD Max YtD EUR/USD 1.1116 0.17 -8.14 1.0522 1.2031 USD/YEN 119.19 -0.91 -0.59 116.87 125.65 London Brent Crude Oil Index U$/BBL 50.37 2.54 -12.14 42.81 67.95 10 Yrs Bund Futures 154.89 0.58 -0.63 148.98 160.36 Source: Datastream Recommendation and target price changes Banca Carige: TP EUR 2.20 from EUR 2.30 Trevi: TP EUR 1.50 from 1.90 News Banca Carige (Buy) A restructuring story with M&A appeal Enel (Accumulate) Going-on Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (Buy) FCA likely to wait until 2016 before moving on GM Telecom Italia (Accumulate) New rumours on savings' conversion Trevi (Neutral) Feedback from H1 presentation: challenging guidance UniCredit (Neutral) Interview with Mr Ghizzoni in La Repubblica All ESN research is available on Bloomberg: “ESNR” <go> Italian Morning Sight 07 September 2015 Banca Carige Italy/Banks BANKS Banca Carige (Buy) A restructuring story with M&A appeal Buy A restructuring story with M&A appeal Recommendation unchanged Share price: EUR 1.63 The facts: We are publishing this morning a company update on Banca Carige. closing price as of 04/09/2015 Target price: EUR 2.20 from Target Price: EUR 2.30 Our analysis: - Better operating profits: The main income driver will remain NII: Reuters/Bloomberg the main income source is targeted to grow by EUR 255m in 5Y, with a 11.8% CRGI.MI/CRG IM CAGR, mainly thanks to a very strong reduction in funding costs. The net Market capitalisation (EURm) 1,356 commissions are expected to increase by EUR 148m in 5Y, with a 9.3% CAGR, Current N° of shares (m) 830 thanks to a higher weight of AUM on indirect funding (from 48.7% to 56.6%) and Free float 74% the relaunch of lending growth. We consider these revenue targets as quite Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 6,388,856 ambitious, as we think increasing the weight of AUM requires significant Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 10,587 Price high 12 mth (EUR) 3.65 investments in staff training for customer advice. Price low 12 mth (EUR) 1.50 - Improved risk profile: To cut the cost of credit risk to 90bps in 2017 and Abs. perf. 1 mth -3.03% 41bps in 2019, the bank plans to reduce the share of bad loans stock via Abs. perf. 3 mth -13.05% disposal of EUR 1-1.5bn with non-recourse, with a gross capital loss Abs. perf. 12 mth -55.28% estimated in EUR 150-200m (or 30bps of CET1) to be finalized in 2016. The Key financials (EUR) 12/14 12/15e 12/16e bank will also maximize recovery rates through a partnership agreement with Total Revenue (m) 822 709 749 a servicer for positions not exceeding EUR 5m, for a portfolio of EUR 2-2.7bn Pre-Provision Profit (PPP) (m) 106 61 125 Operating profit (OP) -539 -201 -99 and estimated commissions of 4-6bps in terms of cost of risk. Earnings Before Tax (m) -579 -176 -269 - H1 15 results: The most outstanding achievement of the de-risking process Net Profit (adj.) (m) -254 -106 -63 Shareholders Equity (m) 1,766 2,596 2,421 realized by the mgmt. over the last year was a fall in loan impairments in Q2, Tangible BV (m) 1,709 2,539 2,364 decreasing 30% Q/Q and 46% Y/Y to EUR 54m. In H1 15 the bank signed RWA (m) 20,500 18,980 19,504 workout agreements for EUR 813m worth of unlikely-to-pay loans, planned to ROTE -15.9% -5.0% -2.6% Total Capital Ratio (B3) 12.4% 17.7% 16.4% reach over EUR 1.6bn by end-Sep. Once restructured, these loans will be Cost/Income 86.4% 90.7% 82.6% classified in the forborne category and may return to performing loans after NPL ratio (gross) 11.7% 11.8% 11.1% 1Y. These would allow to halve the unlikely-to-pay loans, currently at EUR P/PPP 155.4 22.3 10.8 P/E (adj.) nm nm nm 3.3bn gross. P/BV 9.4 0.5 0.6 - M&A appeal: Apart from the restructuring story on a standalone basis, we P/TBV 9.7 0.5 0.6 Dividend Yield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% think Banca Carige is likely to be involved in the expected consolidation of the PPPPS 0.01 0.07 0.15 Italian banking sector, possibly in two different ways. We think Banca Carige EPS (adj.) -0.02 -0.13 -0.08 could be easily integrated in a larger group as its branch network remains BVPS 0.17 3.13 2.92 TBVPS 0.17 3.06 2.85 highly concentrated in the historical region of Liguria. In a top-down approach, DPS 0.00 0.00 0.00 we estimate on avg. 17% of Banca Carige’s cost base can be cut in 3Y by a potential partner, with a value creation of EUR 0.35 per Carige share. vvdsvdvsdy4.5 - Alternatively, the subsidiaries Carige Italia and BML make up approx. 53% 4.0 of group revenues and 33% of customer loans. While their relative size for the 3.5 3.0 group is high, in our view their local market shares are too limited to give 2.5 them a competitive advantage and it could make sense for the parent 2.0 company to sell them. Their disposal at a price in line with the carrying values 1.5 (over EUR 0.8bn) would add up to 550bps to the group’s capital ratios, 1.0 Aug 14 Sep 14 Oct 14 Nov 14 Dec 14 Jan 15 Feb 15 Mar 15 Apr 15 May 15 Jun 15 Jul 15 Aug 15 Sep 15 freeing up approx. EUR 1.1bn capital (or EUR 1.3 per share) and offering the Source: Factset BANCA CARIGE FTSE Italy All Share (Rebased) mgmt. the means to distribute an extraordinary dividend and invest into the Shareholders: Malacalza 17%; local Foundations 6%; transformation of the remaining Banca Carige from a traditional retail bank Volpi 6%; BPCE 1.90%; into a wealth manager. Analyst(s): Luigi Tramontana, Banca Akros Conclusion & Action: The business plan targets a ROTE of 8% in 2019: Banca [email protected] Carige will not match its estimated COE in the next 5Y and will destroy value in +39 02 4344 4239 the meantime. Therefore, our standalone target price is EUR 2.2 per share, or 0.7x P/TBV. However, we think an aggregation by a larger group could add EUR 0.35 per share of additional cost synergies, while the disposal of the branch network outside Liguria could free up capital for as much as EUR 1.3 per share. Banca 2 Akros Italian Morning Sight 07 September 2015 Enel Italy/Utilities UTILITIES Enel (Accumulate) A restructuring story with M&A appeal Accumulate Going-on Recommendation unchanged Share price: EUR 3.91 The facts: “Milano Finanza” published an interview with Mr. Starace, Enel’s CEO. closing price as of 04/09/2015 Target price: EUR 4.75 Target Price unchanged Our analysis: in our view, the main issues of the interview are: Reuters/Bloomberg ENEI.MI/ENEL IM 2016 dividend, already announced in terms of floor (EUR 0.18 per share – yield around 4.6%) may be conservative and thus investors ought to look Market capitalisation (EURm) 36,767 Current N° of shares (m) 9,403 for a positive surprise; Free float 72% Mr. Starace confirmed Enel’s growth path in the renewable and in the Daily avg. no. trad. sh. 12 mth 51,781,350 network sectors. Most of the planned growth in the coming years, in fact, Daily avg. trad. vol. 12 mth (m) 203,234 will come from these two units; Price high 12 mth (EUR) 4.46 the exclusive talks with EPH for Slovenske Electrarne disposal are Price low 12 mth (EUR) 3.44 Abs. perf. 1 mth -9.20% proceeding and the sale ought to materialise in two steps. The first stake Abs. perf. 3 mth -8.35% due to be sold is expected in the coming months (by the end of 2015), Abs. perf. 12 mth -8.00% the second step once the nuclear unit constructions ends; Key financials (EUR) 12/14 12/15e 12/16e Enel is facing the technical issues of the “national broadband project” with Sales (m) 75,791 74,528 73,865 Telecom Italia.
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