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Climate Change Projections for Local Planning

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Climate Change Projections for Local Planning Climate Change Projections for Local Planning: A Practical Application of Overlay Analysis and Synthetic Impact Assessment in the Cities of Batangas, General Santos, Legazpi, Puerto Princesa and Tagbilaran Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity (SURGE) Project CONTRACT NO. AID-492-H-15-00001 AUGUST 8, 2018 This report is made possible with the support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The contents of this report are the sole responsibility of the International City/County Management Association and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States Government. USAID Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity (SURGE) Project Page 1 Climate Change Projections for Local Planning: A Practical Application of Overlay Analysis and Synthetic Impact Assessment in the Cities of Batangas, General Santos, Legazpi, Puerto Princesa and Tagbilaran Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity (SURGE) Project CONTRACT NO. AID-492-H-15-00001 Program Title: USAID/SURGE Sponsoring USAID Office: USAID/Philippines Contract Number: AID-492-H-15-00001 Contractor: International City/County Management Association (ICMA) Date of Publication: August 8, 2018 USAID Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity (SURGE) Project Page 2 Table of Contents ACRONYMS 10 LIST OF TABLES 11 LIST OF FIGURES 11 LIST OF BATANGAS CITY MAPS 11 LIST OF GENERAL SANTOS CITY MAPS 12 LIST OF LEGAZPI CITY MAPS 13 LIST OF PUERTO PRINCESA CITY MAPS 13 LIST OF TAGBILARAN CITY MAPS 14 ABSTRACT 15 I. INTRODUCTION 16 Background of SURGE 16 Translation and Projections 16 Climate Projections in the Philippines 17 Synthesis of Climate Change Impacts 18 Selecting Priority Sectors 18 II. METHODOLOGY 19 Inputs and Data Sources 20 Baseline Data 20 Climate Change Projections and Scenarios 20 Impacts and adaptation options 21 Preparation of the Profile 21 Synthetic Impact Assessment and Overlay Analysis 22 Identifying Priority Sectors 25 Adaptation Options 25 Validation 25 Limitations of the Study 25 III. CDI CITIES 27 3.1. BATANGAS CITY 27 Executive Summary 27 Physical Geography 28 Location 28 Physical Characteristics 28 Climate 30 Socio-Economic Characteristics (derived from Batangas City’s SEPP 2016) 31 USAID Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity (SURGE) Project Page 3 Population 31 Education 33 Economic Activities 33 Livestock 33 Infrastructure 34 Water Supply 34 Power Supply 34 Roads and Bridges (from Batangas City SEPP 2016) 34 Land Cover and Land Use 36 Climatic Hazards 36 Flood Hazard 36 Five (5) Year Return Period 37 25-Year Return Period 38 100-Year Return Period 39 Landslide Hazard 40 Storm Surge Hazard (Maps 11-13), (Data from Project NOAH) 41 SSA 1 Storm Tide Level of 2.01 m to 3.0 m 41 SSA 2 Storm Tide Level of 3.01 m to 4.0 m 42 SSA 3 Storm Tide Level of Greater Than 4.0 m 43 Projections and Grid Extent (data on Projections come from PAGASA) 44 A. Change in Precipitation 44 Mid-21st Century Projections (2036-2065), Maps 14-17 44 Late 21st Century Projection (2070-2099), Maps 18-20 48 B. Change in Temperature 52 Mid-21st Century Projections (2036-2065), (Maps 22-24) 52 Late 21st Century Projections (2070-2099), Maps 26-29 55 Impacts and Adaptation Options 59 A. Demography 60 B. Social 60 C. Economic 60 D. Infrastructure 61 E. Environment 62 F. Hazards 62 Adaptation Options 62 3.2. GENERAL SANTOS CITY 68 USAID Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity (SURGE) Project Page 4 Executive Summary 68 Physical Geography 70 Location 70 Physical Characteristics 70 Climate 71 Socio-Economic Characteristics 72 Population 72 Education 73 Economic Activities 73 Infrastructure 74 Transportation 74 Roads 74 Water 75 Electricity 75 Land Cover and Land Use 75 Climatic Hazards 76 Flood Hazard 76 Five (5) Year Return Period 77 25-Year Return Period 78 100-Year Return Period 79 Landslide Hazard 80 Storm Surge Hazard (Maps 11-13), (Data from Project NOAH) 81 SSA 1 Storm Tide Level of 2.01 m to 3.0 m 81 SSA 2 Storm Tide Level of 3.01 m to 4.0 m 82 SSA 3 Storm Tide Level of Greater than 4.0 m 83 Projections and Grid Extent (data on Projections come from PAGASA) 84 Change in Precipitation 84 Mid-21st Century Projections (2036-2065), Maps 14-17 84 Late 21st Century Projection (2070-2099), Maps 18-21 88 Change in Temperature 92 Mid-21st Century Projections (2036-2065), Maps 22-25 92 Late 21st Century Projections (2070-2099), Maps 26-29 96 Impacts and Adaptation Options 100 A. Demography 100 B. Social 101 USAID Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity (SURGE) Project Page 5 C. Economic 101 D. Infrastructure 102 E. Environment 102 F. Hazards 103 Adaptation Options 103 3.3. LEGAZPI CITY 108 Executive Summary 108 Physical Geography 110 Location 110 Physical Characteristics 110 Climate 111 Socio-Economic Characteristics 112 Population 112 Education 113 Economic Activities 113 Infrastructure 114 Transportation 114 Power and Water 115 Land Cover and Land Use 115 Climatic Hazards 116 Flood Hazard 116 Five (5) Year Return Period 117 25 -Year Return Period 118 100-Year Return Period 119 Landslide Hazard 120 Storm Surge Hazard (Maps 11-13), (Data from Project NOAH) 121 SSA 1 Storm Tide Level of 2.01 m to 3.0 m 121 SSA 2 Storm tide level of 3.01 m to 4.0 m 122 SSA 3 Storm Tide Level of Greater than 4.0 m 123 Projections and Grid Extent (data on Projections come from PAGASA) 124 Change in Precipitation 124 Mid-21st Century Projections (2036-2065), Maps 14-17 124 Late 21st Century Projection (2070-2099), Maps 18-20 128 Change in Temperature 132 Mid-21st Century Projections (2036-2065), Maps 22-25 132 USAID Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity (SURGE) Project Page 6 Late 21st Century Projections (2070-2099), Maps 26-29 136 Impacts and Adaptation Options 140 A. Demography 140 B. Social 141 C. Economic 141 D. Infrastructure 142 E. Environment 142 F. Hazards 142 Adaptation Options 143 3.4. PUERTO PRINCESA CITY 148 Executive Summary 148 Physical Geography 149 Location 149 Physical Characteristics 149 Climate 150 Socio-Economic Characteristics 151 Population 151 Education 152 Economic Activities 153 Infrastructure 153 Transportation 153 Roads 154 Water 154 Electricity 155 Land Cover 155 Climatic Hazards 156 Flood Hazard 156 Five (5) Year Return Period 157 25 Year-Return Period 158 100-Year Return Period 159 Landslide Hazard 160 Projections and Grid Extent (data on Projections come from PAGASA) 161 Change in Precipitation 161 Mid-21st Century Projections (2036-2065), Maps 11-14 161 Late 21st Century Projection (2070-2099), Maps 15-17 165 USAID Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity (SURGE) Project Page 7 Change in Temperature 169 Mid-21st Century Projections (2036-2065), Maps 19-22 169 Late 21st Century Projections (2070-2099), Maps 23-26 173 Impacts and Adaptation Options 177 A. Demography 177 B. Social 177 C. Economic 178 D. Infrastructure 178 E. Environment 179 F. Hazards 179 Adaptation Options 180 3.5. TAGBILARAN CITY 184 Executive Summary 184 Physical Geography 185 Location 185 Physical Characteristics 185 Climate 186 Socio-Economic Characteristics 187 Population 187 Education 188 Economic Activities 188 Infrastructure 188 Transportation 188 Land Cover and Land Use 190 Climatic Hazards 191 Flood Hazard 191 Five (5) Year Return Period 192 25 -Year Return Period 193 100-Year Return Period 194 Landslide Hazard 195 Storm Surge Hazard (Maps 11-13), (Data from Project NOAH) 196 SSA 1 Storm Tide Level of 2.01 m to 3.0 m 196 SSA 2 Storm tide level of 3.01 m to 4.0 m 197 SSA 3 Storm Tide Level of Greater than 4.0 m 198 Projections and Grid Extent (data on Projections come from PAGASA) 199 USAID Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity (SURGE) Project Page 8 Change in Precipitation 199 Mid-21st Century Projections (2036-2065), Maps 14-17 199 Late 21st Century Projection (2070-2099), (Maps 18-21) 203 Change in Temperature 207 Mid-21st Century Projections (2036-2065), Maps 22-25 207 Late 21st Century Projections (2070-2099), Maps 26-29 211 Impacts and Adaptation Options 215 A. Demography 215 B. Social 215 C. Economic 216 D. Infrastructure 216 E. Environment 216 F. Hazards 217 Adaptation Options 217 IV. CONCLUSION AND DISCUSSIONS 219 ANNEXES 223 Annex 1. Questionnaire 223 Annex 2. Validation Workshop Program and Outputs 229 USAID Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity (SURGE) Project Page 9 ACRONYMS BCWD Batangas City Water District CCA Climate change adaptation CCAM Conformal cubic atmospheric model CDI Cities Development Initiative CLIRAM Climate information and risk analysis matrix CLUP Comprehensive Land Use Plan DOST Department of Science and Technology DREAM Disaster risk and exposure assessment for mitigation DRRM Disaster risk reduction and management GCMs Global climate models GIS Geographic Information System HLURB Housing Land Use Regulatory Board IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LGU Local government unit LiDAR Light Detection and Ranging NEDA National Economic and Development Authority NOAH Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards PAGASA Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration PHILCCA Philippines Climate Change Assessment PRECIS Providing regional climates for impacts studies PSA Philippine Statistics Authority RCMs Regional climate models RCP Representative concentration pathways SURGE Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity USAID United States Agency for International Development USAID Strengthening Urban Resilience for Growth with Equity (SURGE) Project Page 10 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 3.1.1. NUMBER OF SCHOOLS PER LEVEL OF EDUCATION IN BATANGAS 33 (SOURCE: BATANGAS SEPP 2017) TABLE 3.1.2. LIVESTOCK RAISERS BY TYPE IN BATANGAS (SOURCE: BATANGAS SEPP 2017) 33 TABLE 3.1.3.
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