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Staff Notes Monthly March 1999

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Staff Notes Monthly March 1999 Staff Notes Monthly March 1999 UCAR > Communications > Staff Notes > March 1999 Search Volume 34, Number 3 -- March 1999 In this issue USWRP gears up for its first science symposium Keeping track of the two WRPs New leadership at MMM: Rotunno steps in A progress report on the USWRP Random Profile: Doug Woodard Art Hundhausen wins NAS Arctowski Medal for solar research Science Briefing: AMS Meisinger Award goes to Clara Deser F&A today: Reorganization is just the start A road map for F&A The new HESS team After 35 years, Mike Howard packs up (cleverly, of course) Catch a static wave in the ML lobby Chris Berntsen, 1962-1999 ArachnoFile: Comparing apples with apples: The Extreme Weather Sourcebook New Hires Other issues of Staff Notes Monthly Just One Look http://www.ucar.edu/communications/staffnotes/9903/[4/19/2013 1:00:35 PM] Staff Notes Monthly March 1999 Sometimes it doesn't take a scientist--rocket, atmospheric, or otherwise--to detect a cold front from the NCAR mesa. This one on the afternoon of Wednesday, 10 February, was hard for anyone to miss. CGD scientist Jerry Meehl has been at NCAR since the early 1970s, and he called this front "one of the more dramatic I've ever seen. My mother lives out in Brighton, and she said there was this terrifically strong north wind; then, when the snow started, it was like a blizzard." Jerry snapped this photo at about 3:20 p.m. as the front approached northeast Boulder. By 4:00 p.m., the view of Boulder from the mesa was almost totally obscured by dust. At Jeffco, the temperature dropped from 64°F at 3:00 p.m. to 52°F (with blowing dust) at 4:00 p.m. By 6:00 p.m. it was snowing and 30°F. The snow and dust congealed to produce a thin, car-soiling mix, reminding us that winter is never too far away even during Boulder's mildest February in more than a decade. About this publication Production Writer/editor: Bob Henson Copy editor: Zhenya Gallon Design: Michael Shibao Printing: Speedy Bee Print distribution: Milli Butterworth Electronic distribution: Jacque Marshall Photography: NCAR Imaging & Design Center, Carlye Calvin Unless otherwise noted all images are copyrighted by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research / National Center for Atmospheric Research / National Science Foundation. UCAR http://www.ucar.edu/communications/staffnotes/9903/[4/19/2013 1:00:35 PM] Staff Notes Monthly March 1999 NCAR UOP Edited by Bob Henson, [email protected] Prepared for the Web by Jacque Marshall http://www.ucar.edu/communications/staffnotes/9903/[4/19/2013 1:00:35 PM] USWRP gears up for its first science symposium UCAR > Communications > Staff Notes > March 1999 Search USWRP gears up for its first science March 1999 symposium Flood damage is on the increase: this 1993 flood in the Mississippi Valley (left) was one of the worst on record. Rit Carbone (above) has been examining heavy rain and other weather hazards as lead scientist for the U.S. Weather Research Program and as a key player in the World Weather Research Program. (Photos by Curt Zukosky, left, and Carlye Calvin.) Landfalling hurricanes and heavy rain. They're two of the thorniest problems in weather forecasting. They, along with winter storms, are at the center of the U.S. Weather Research Program. After several years of problem definition and initial science at NCAR and elsewhere, the USWRP will unveil some of its first findings in a Mesa Lab symposium on 29-31 March. A sampling of the science results is included in a sidebar to this article. The meeting will also serve as a brainstorming session among several groups: forecasters, weather researchers, social scientists, and the end users of forecasts, such as emergency managers. About 100 of these people will be on hand. For each of the two key topics--hurricanes and quantitative precipitation forecasting--there will be oral presentations, http://www.ucar.edu/communications/staffnotes/9903/USWRP.html[4/19/2013 1:00:52 PM] USWRP gears up for its first science symposium poster sessions, and two panels. The first panel will integrate research, impacts, and policy considerations on the topic at hand. The second will examine the USWRP's contributions to the issues raised in the first panel. "I think [the symposium structure] is unique," says Roger Pielke, Jr. (ESIG), moderator of the kickoff panel. "I hope that it's as multidisciplinary as the USWRP should be." The meeting marks a turning point for the USWRP and its international cousin, the World Weather Research Programme (See sidebar). Both are moving from multiyear planning phases into more active research components. Senior scientist Rit Carbone, who has been lead scientist for the USWRP since its inception, is passing the baton to Bob Gall (See sidebar) and turning his attention to the WWRP. Rit has been involved with both programs for years, serving as chair of the WWRP's Interim Science Steering Committee. Now that the WWRP has become part of the World Meteorological Organization, "it requires a much larger effort to lend substance to the original notion," says Rit. The USWRP is the latest incarnation of an effort spanning the better part of two decades. It started as the Stormscale Operational Research and Meteorology Program (STORM), whose project office was based at NCAR through much of the 1980s. Ever since, a growing contingent of atmospheric scientists has been pressing for sustained support. However, the undertaking has found itself in a funding environment that includes the National Weather Service modernization and the growing national effort to study global change. Despite the fact that funding has been consistently lower than requested, the USWRP has already made its presence felt. A series of prospectus reports reprinted in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has called attention to the science issues at the heart of the program. About $10 million of the annual NCAR budget is now allocated to USWRP-related work. Some of these funds are distributed internally through a competitive process on a two-year cycle, first carried out in 1997 and recently completed for 1999. This year, for the first time, the USWRP was included in the NOAA budget from the outset, as part of the president's proposal for the upcoming fiscal year. When it rains . On both the national and global scales, it's clear that heavy rain is a central problem, even with hurricane landfall. Out of the 500 or so U.S. hurricane deaths since 1970, more than 90% were related to freshwater flooding rather than to high winds or storm surge. (Of course, a hurricane storm surge is still capable of tremendous loss of life, notes Roger: "It doesn't mean you let your guard down.") Although it was one of the most powerful Atlantic storms on record, Hurricane Mitch caused most of its damage through flooding rains in Honduras and Nicaragua as it lingered for days in the Caribbean and then moved slowly inland. Mitch packed winds of 180 miles per hour (290 kilometers per hour) on 26 October 1998 but was only a minimal hurricane when it reached the Honduran coast three days later. More than 9,000 people are believed to have died as a result of Mitch. (Enhanced satellite image produced by Hal Pierce, NASA.) The catastrophic Hurricane Mitch wreaked most of its havoc last fall through heavy rains and mudslides as the storm ground itself down just offshore of Honduras. "It's a perfect example," says Rit, "a really graphic example of how winds weren't the cause of any significant damage. It was all heavy rainfall. Flooding tends to be the principal societal impact of tropical cyclones." According to Rit, predicting how much rain or snow will fall at a given spot "is the area of lowest skill in forecasting http://www.ucar.edu/communications/staffnotes/9903/USWRP.html[4/19/2013 1:00:52 PM] USWRP gears up for its first science symposium today. It's an exceedingly tough problem." Both the USWRP and the WWRP will hit the heavy-rain problem from several angles: better mesoscale modeling, improved radar estimates of rainfall, and better understanding of the societal variables. What lies behind the global increase in flood damages? Rainfall has certainly gone up in many cases. Last year's Yangtze River floods in China were driven by all-time rainfall records that, according to Rit, bested the previous marks by factors of two or three at some stations. However, in China and with Hurricane Mitch, deforestation and other land-use changes appear to have played into the disastrous flooding. In the United States, flood damages have risen steadily, but rainfall increases can only explain part of the increased flood damage. Roger and colleagues in ESIG are examining factors such as growth in population and wealth to which they attribute the balance of the U.S. flood damage. An Olympian effort in 2000 As the USWRP continues its ongoing research, major international field studies will be conducted under the WWRP. The first one takes place this summer and fall in southern Europe. The Mesoscale Alpine Program (MAP) will study the effect of the Alps on local airflow and heavy rainfall. MAP will feature substantial NCAR involvement, including the NSF/NCAR Electra and the S-Pol radar. The experiment's U.S. project office is headed by Joach Kuettner, who holds the UCAR Distinguished Chair for Atmospheric Science and International Research. For more on MAP, See the winter UCAR Quarterly. The focus tightens to a single metropolitan area next year, as some of the world's most advanced nowcasting systems are assembled in Australia for the Sydney 2000 project.
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